FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 4A regional quarterfinals preview

The FHSAA Flag Football State Series kicks off tomorrow (Wednesday) around the state with regional quarterfinals in all four classifications. Here is a look at Class 4A with our regional quarterfinals preview with five games to watch, statistical leaders in six different categories, SOS rankings, and FPRI Game Forecast:

FIVE GAMES TO WATCH

REGION 1

No. 5 DeLand (11-6) at No. 4 Mandarin (Jacksonville) (12-5), 6

While not fully intrigued with the matchup for Region 1, this game stands out as one of two games that could be the closest in the region, but really and honestly it could end up as a one-sided affair as DeLand reached the playoff, partly thanks to reaching the district championship game against Spruce Creek (Port Orange). The host Mustangs will give everything and then likely some to the visiting Bulldogs thanks to quarterback Grace Brown who averages 140 yards passing per game which is complemented by all-around athlete Reese Holman who is averaging 144 yards per game between receiver and quarterback while also helping shut teams down on defense. Both Mandarin and DeLand enter with a similar strength of schedule according to the Florida Power Ranking Index with DeLand having an SOS of 1.702 which is tied 61st best in the state with Mandaring having the tied 63rd best SOS at 1.701.

REGION 2

No. 6 Bloomingdale (Valrico) (11-6) at No. 3 Horizon (Winter Garden) (15-2)

FPRI Forecast: Bloomingdale 2 over Horizon

One of the best 3 vs. 6 matchups across the four playoff brackets you will find anywhere in the FHSAA Flag Football State Series. Please do not let the Bulls’ six losses fool you. They are nothing to sneeze at considering five of those six losses come from playoff teams including two to Lennard (Ruskin) – one being for the District 4A-8 championship. The host Hawks, who have lost to Celebration and then to West Orange (Winter Garden) in the District 4A-5 championship has seen some close calls in tight matchups this season. When looking at the strength of schedule between both teams, according to The Florida Power Rankings Index, Bloomingdale’s SOS of 1.782 which ranks as the 10th best SOS with Horizon ranking at 54th overall with an SOS of 1.707. Watch out for quarterback Lexi Serniotti for Bloomingdale who is averaging just over 200 yards per game with Fabi Kreubel leading the way for Horizon who is averaging just over 147 passing yards per game.

REGION 3

No. 5 Celebration (14-3) at No. 4 Harmony (13-4)

FPRI Forecast: Celebration 3 over Harmony

Will third time be the charm for Celebration? That is a question that remains after the Storm lost twice to the Longhorns – 13-12 in the regular season and 26-6 in the district 4A-10 Championship. Isabel Meadows will lead the way as she is averaging over 220 yards per game that includes 168 passing yards per game. The advantage for the Longhorns could come down to having played a slightly tougher schedule with The Florida Power Ranking Index giving Harmony an SOS of 1.752, the 24th best SOS in the state compared to Celebration’s 1.726 which comes in at 38 overall.

REGION 4

No. 5 Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) (12-1) at No. 4 Ferguson (Miami) (11-3), 3:30

FPRI Forecast: Stoneman Douglas 6 over Ferguson

At times this season Stoneman Douglas has shown flashes of being a Top 25 team in the state and the same with Ferguson and this 4 vs 5 matchup will likely come down to who can execute their game plan the best. With this being an early afternoon game, the visiting Eagles will have to be prepared with Samantah Calavetta leading the way who is averaging 193.1 total yards a game and the defense will have to figure out how to keep Ferguson’s Arianna Madsen from finding Kaysie Hart who is their average leading scorer for the host Falcons. The Florida Power Rankings Index gives the host Falcons the 15th best strength of schedule in the state at 1.773 while Stoneman Douglas ranks 129th with an SOS of 1.652 despite their one loss coming to Western (Davie) for the District 4A-14 championship.

No. 6 Park Vista (Lake Worth) (10-5) at No. 3 Spanish River (Boca Raton) (13-3)

FPRI Forecast: Spanish River 3 over Park Vista

A rematch of last week’s District 4A-13 championship that saw Spanish River escape with a 14-6 victory to lay claim on the trophy will have to be prepared for Park Vista wants to throw their way again for the second time in less than a week. The visiting Cobras will be led by Jordana Weil who is averaging almost 217 passing yards per game, but they are going to have to counter the host Sharks’ own starting thrower in Brooke Eriksson who is averaging nearly 268 yards per game while trying to keep Sara Hersowitz out of the end zone as she is averaging nearly 13 points per game. When looking at the strength of schedule for both teams, according to the Florida Power Rankings Index, Spanish River has the 48th best SOS in the state at 1.715 while Park Vista is not far behind at 1.708, ranked 52nd, setting up for this being another top 3 vs 6 matchup in the playoffs regardless of classification.

STATISTICAL LEADERS

Here is a look at the top five statistical leaders in six different categories from the teams that are in the Class 4A playoffs.

PASSING

Adrienne Rivera, Fort Pierce Central – 277-of-410, 3,886 yards, 50 TDs, 14 INTs

Sydney Elizondo, Lennard (Ruskin) – 397-of-621, 3,884 yards, 69 TDs, 11 INTs

Gabby Werr, Alonso (Tampa) – 305-of-473, 3,879 yards, 57 TDs, 12 INTs

KK Ramsey, George Steinbrenner (Lutz) – 294-of-458, 3,216 yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs

Jillian Truax, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 227-of-313, 3,123 yards, 31 TDs, 11 INTs

RUSHING

Zebrielle Canaday, Haines City – 133 carries, 1,669 yards, 21 TDs

Jhenelle Francis, Apopka – 101 carries, 1,561 yards, 17 TDs

Jillian Truax, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 151 carries, 1,195 yards, 13 TDs

Lexi Serniotti, Bloomingdale (Valrico) – 102 carries, 807 yards, 8 TDs

Isabel Meadows, Celebration – 88 carries, 804 yards, 7 TDs

RECEIVING

Chloe Waldo, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 111 receptions, 1,425 yards, 20 TDs

Kyah Vance, Lennard (Ruskin) – 102 receptions, 1,215 yards, 20 TDs

Karla Timothy, Fort Pierce Central – 72 receptions, 1,161 yards, 17 TDs

Reese Holman, Mandarin (Jacksonville) – 81 receptions, 1,097 yards, 15 TDs

Berkley Demeter, George Steinbrenner (Lutz) – 58 receptions, 1,061 yards, 14 TDs

FLAG PULLS

Jada Kurk, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 112

Nina Macy, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 108

Carolyn Lebroc, Hialeah Gardens – 98

Zion Willis, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 96

Zolen Anash, Newsome (Lithia) – 95

SACKS

Zion Willis, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 56

Kathryn Williams, George Steinbrenner (Lutz) – 32

Mariann Houck, Celebration – 28

Tajeyah Chance, Fort Pierce Central – 23

INTERCEPTIONS

Lexi Serniotti, Bloomingdale (Valrico) – 19

Zebrielle Canaday, Haines City – 17

Chole Waldo, Spruce Creek – 15

Shea Plantz, Alonso (Tampa) – 14

Janiana Wess, Forest (Ocala) – 12

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RANKINGS

Top 10 teams based on Strength of Schedule among Class 4A playoff teams, according to The Florida Power Rankings Index

1. Western (Davie) – 1.883

2. Lennard (Ruskin) – 1.806

3. Miami Palmetto – 1.798

4. Palm Beach Gardens – 1.789

T5. Bloomingdale (Valrico) – 1.782

T5. West Port (Ocala) – 1.782

7. George Steinbrenner (Lutz) – 1.763

8. Alonso (Tampa) – 1.762

9. Newsome (Lithia) – 1.753

10. Harmony – 1.752

The 10 lowest rated teams based on Strength of Schedule among Class 4A playoff teams, according to The Florida Power Rankings Index

1. Forest (Ocala) – 1.564

2. Freedom (Orlando) – 1.565

3. Davenport – 1.604

4. Haines City – 1.619

5. Jupiter – 1.621

6. Doral Academy – 1.636

7. Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) – 1.652

8. Spruce Creek (Port Orange) – 1.671

9. Apopka – 1.679

10. Hialeah Gardens – 1.699

FLORIDA POWER RANKINGS INDEX FORECAST

Remaining games not previewed

REGION 1

No. 8 West Port (Ocala) (6-4) at No. 1 Apopka (13-1) Apopka 39 over West Port

No. 6 Forest (Ocala) (10-4) at No. 3 Timber Creek (Orlando) (13-3) Timber Creek 30 over Forest

No. 7 Tocoi Creek (St. Augustine) (8-6) at No. 2 Spruce Creek (Port Orange) (16-0), 6 Spruce Creek 19 over Tocoi Creek

REGION 2

No. 8 West Orange (Winter Garden) (10-5) at No. 1 Lennard (Ruskin) (15-2) Lennard 36 over West Orange

No. 4 George Steinbrenner (Lutz) (13-5) at No. 5 Haines City (16-0) George Steinbrenner 6 over Haines City

No. 7 Newsome (Lithia) (11-6) at No. 2 Alonso (Tampa) (15-2) Alonso 33 over Newsome

REGION 3

No. 8 Freedom (Orlando) (10-4) at No. 1 Wellington (13-1), 6:30 Wellington 39 over Freedom

No. 6 Jupiter (13-3) at No. 3 Palm Beach Gardens (10-4) Palm Beach Gardens 34 over Jupiter

No. 7 Davenport (13-3) at No. 2 Fort Pierce Central (16-1), 5:30 Fort Pierce Central 31 over Davenport

REGION 4

No. 8 Doral Academy (10-2) at No. 1 Miami Palmetto (13-3), 3:30 Miami Palmetto 33 over Doral Academy

No. 7 Hialeah Gardens (11-3) at No. 2 Western (Davie) (13-4) Western 23 over Hialeah Gardens

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Five games to watch, top statistical leaders for playoff teams and forecasts in this Class 4A playoff preview

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FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 4A regional quarterfinals preview

Five games to watch, top statistical leaders for playoff teams and forecasts in this Class 4A playoff preview

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