2025 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: Matanzas seeks playoff trip with beefed-up schedule

OVERVIEW

After finishing 4-6 in 2024, the Matanzas Pirates look to try to make a push towards a playoff berth in 2025 and that will come with a couple of modifications to the schedule compared to 2024’s schedule. Is there room for the Pirates to slip in the playoffs or could the strength of schedule come back to hurt Matanzas? Let’s look at the Pirates’ 2025 schedule with our schedule breakdown.

2025 SCHEDULE

Kickoff 7:00 pm unless noted

* – District

Week 1 – Fri. 8/22: vs. Flagler Palm Coast

Week 2 – Fri. 8/29: vs. University (Orange City)

Week 3 – Fri. 9/5: at Deltona

Week 4 – Fri. 9/12: at Andrew Jackson (Jacksonville) at Kevin Sullivan Field

Week 5 – Fri. 9/19: vs. Seabreeze (Daytona Beach)

Week 6 – Fri. 9/26: at Mainland (Daytona Beach)* at Daytona Stadium

Week 7 – Fri. 10/3: vs. Mount Dora

Week 8 – Fri. 10/10: vs. Belleview*

Week 9 – Fri. 10/17: BYE WEEK

Week 10 – Fri. 10/24: at Menendez (St. Augustine)

Week 11 – Fri. 10/31: at Palm Bay (Melbourne)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

If you are looking for Matanzas to have a decent strength of schedule, that is not it here with an SOS rating of .462 coming into the season, meaning more of their opponents have struggled over recent years than not. Despite Mainland’s struggles last year, they remain by far the toughest opponent on the schedule and won the district and if you are looking for the easiest opponent, they are in the district as well with Belleview who has a three-year winning percentage of .100, the worst of the 10 teams on the schedule. If we have to say the schedule is easier than the one played in 2024, it really can be looked as about even or maybe just slightly a tad harder than last year’s schedule given the new opponents added.

KEY GAMES & MUST-WATCH MATCHUPS

The Potato Bowl against in-county rival Flagler Palm Coast which was played in Week 11 last year has been moved up to Week 1 for this year. The most important district game will come down to Mainland in Week 6 which can truly decide if the Pirates can win a district championship and clinch a playoff berth rests on this game. The top-non district matchup will be one with Mount Dora who reached the playoffs in 2024 with that game coming in Week 7 following the big one with Mainland.

HOME VS. AWAY BALANCE

The Pirates will have an equal number of games at home and on the road with the longest road trip of the season coming in the final week of the season with a 122 mile or 244 round-trip trek to Palm Bay for the final game of the season, one that could determine if the Pirates get a playoff berth depending on how well they are doing at that point. In the first five games of the season, the Pirates will be comfortably at home in three of those games.

OPPONENT BREAKDOWN

Of the 10 opponents on the schedule for Matanzas, they will go up against four teams that were in the playoffs last year including two that were district champions in University (Orange City) and Mainland. Of the teams on the schedule, University (Orange City) and Palm Bay are the new opponents added to the schedule replacing Bishop Kenny (Jacksonville) and Atlantic (Port Orange).

BYE WEEK PLACEMENT

The bye week for the Pirates comes in Week 9, which is a little later than where most teams would like to get the bye week at which is anywhere between Weeks 5 and Week 7. However, a rest break before the longest road trip of the season and one that could determine the fate of the season could be much welcomed at this point here.

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS

With only two district games on the schedule, it is going to be crucial for the Pirates to win as many non-district games as possible as that will factor into the final rankings that will decide who is going to reach the playoffs. Games against Flagler Palm Coast, University, Mainland and Mount Dora help with the resume. If Palm Bay and Andrew Jackson both show improvement this season, that would certainly help boost the resume as well. Right now, given recent trends, Matanzas at best could be a potential eighth seed in Class 5A-Region 1.

PREDICTED RECORD & FINAL THOUGHTS

Matanzas has a potential chance of going 6-4 here on this schedule or possibly 7-3 with likely losses being to University (Orange City), Mainland and Mount Dora. Flagler Palm Coast could be a toss-up given it is a rivalry game as well as the game possibly against Palm Bay. Worst case scenario potentially has Matanzas going 3-7 with wins most likely against Deltona, Belleview and Menendez in this scenario. If anything, overall, Matanzas, who was 4-6 last year gets a final prediction of 5-5 from us and just missing the playoffs.