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Everything posted by ColumbiaHighFan2017class

  1. There ain't any truth to that bullshit Columbia would never forfiet a game In fact if anyone on this board is stupid enough to actually believe that then they aren't smart enough to be talking football at all
  2. But I wasn't picking with my heart, I did really think Columbia would beat Raines but I made the bet so I need to honor it
  3. Yup @sikolec As I betted I will accept 0 points for this week and next week PickEms
  4. Miami Killian beat BTW TWICE this year, both by more than Miami Northwestern beat them by (2 points) Should I be dropping Miami Northwestern?
  5. TO SEED THE DISTRICT CHAMPS He's an example of why seeding should be used, 2015 Columbia plays at Lincoln in the regular season in Tallahassee and wins Both were in same region and won district, Columbia went 9-1 while Lincoln went 4-6. Columbia was sent on the road to Lincoln second round of the playoffs and even though Columbia won again in the playoffs Columbia was clearly the best team in the region so they earned home field advantage but instead of getting an additional playoff game at home which would be very profitable, we had to travel to a team at a site we already beat them at instead of hosting And this is just a personal example there are a lot more of them but I don't see how having seeding is a bad thing considering it's done at every other level of sports
  6. Columbia was up 7-6 at halftime over Riverside but they were dominating the entire game? Maybe leave the rankings to me as if you are that far off on something you literally can find out in 2 minutes then good luck with that one go ahead and do your own top 50 statewide
  7. AHP isn't a bad team but considering the teams Cardinal Gibbons and Chaminade have beaten and the teams AHP has lost to in what seems to be a down year it's not an elite AHP team either
  8. It's a bad loss when you have TCA beating AHP but they can't beat Riverside or Florida High Or are both Florida High and Riverside top 25 teams in the state of Florida but if you think that I would really like to see you do a top 25 so we can compare
  9. For reference since the video has no sound the whistle was blown at approximately the 6 second mark in the video So everything after that was post whistle, let me know if anyone can justify why this wasn't a late hit @Jambun82 in your opinion should this play have resulted in a personal foul being called?
  10. Columbia played horrible in the first half of the Madison game and probably only would have been down 14-0 had they punted instead of going for it on 4th down near midfield with 40 seconds left Columbia drove on Madison easily in the second half with a WR playing at QB and had a chance to take a lead with 8 minutes left before Madison drove him into the ground 15 yards back after they blew the whistle Madison was up 5 points with 4 minutes but Columbia got stripped sacked at their 10 yard line Now what part of that was Madison winning big But maybe I'll post the play that Madison injured the Columbia player on and let everyone decide if it was a dirty hit
  11. So are you Your trying to throw out hypotheticals to justify Riverside being better than Columbia or trying to say Venice vs Cardinal Gibbons played out the same way as that game
  12. You mean a TCA team who has now lost 3 of their last 4 games? How do we know this TCA team is at the same level of the one who beat Columbia a month ago? There are so many unpredictable factors that can change a team in a month Again what I saw of Riverside told me they were being way overrated in everyone's rankings. TCA and Bolles was the worst games Columbia played all year, how do we know the Columbia who played against Riverside doesn't beat TCA? I could do this all day and justify every bit of it
  13. Well for the record Killian beat a Miramar team by a similar margin to Dillard I think Killian schedule isn't great but minus the STA game both have a similar schedule and were undefeated with it Also AHP has been very erratic this year They beat Cardinal Gibbons and Chaminade but lose to TCA I could see Killian beating AHP if they play
  14. And penalties didn't cause Riverside to lose to Columbia Riverside lost because they kept turning the ball over which unlike penalities is not something that can be covered up by a flag happy official crew It was just Riverside thinking they could play backyard ball but they lacked what it takes to be a deep playoff team, all those transfers and they gonna be on the road come playoff time because they played sloppy and careless and looked like they hadn't practiced a single day of special teams all year They are all hype and no substance and I was one of very few people who were able to see though the cloak and dagger to know they weren't what they were advertised as
  15. Riverside knocked Columbia starting QB out of the game and held a 19 point lead in 4th quarter and couldn't pull out the win Columbia was also the best team Riverside had played to date Venice and Cardinal Gibbons had both played far better schedules than Riverside did, if anything Riverside is lucky their early season schedules were so bad or they wouldn't have been undefeated for so long
  16. The reason Dillard rose was because they did do better offensively than I expected but I still don't see them as a top 10 team yet though Dillard played STA about what I expected but I was advised by a few SFL sources that I should move Dillard up even in the loss and after I set the precedent for doing that earlier this year it opened the door Killian did have a similar performance to Dillard against a common opponent in Miramar for what it's worth and if Dillard would have won they would have jumped into the top 5 with that win but as for Killian they are the second best team in 5A right now and probably would make final 4 if they didn't have to share a region with Miami Central
  17. I'll make a even more risky motion Columbia stays and if I'm wrong on my pick then I'll forfeit all points for this week and next week
  18. Yeah and that was me at one time too but as I took a chance and started trying to rank teams I was able to learn from talking to people in different parts of the state and evaluating the rankings until I started to get a feel for where teams stand and a formula for ranking that tends to do well over the course of the season I don't claim to know everything but I do feel I rank fairly and I listen to feedback I get from rankings and it allows me to evaluate why I rank a team in a certain spot and adjust it in the subsequent weeks so that it's close to accurate as possible in a chaotic environment that is high school football where your talking about kids 15-18 where even a small distraction could cause a team to lose on any given week and force a major shakeup in the rankings
  19. Well considering I only rank to 50 there's a lot of games in the PickEms involving teams who are unranked vs unranked plus confidence PickEms always are ones I tend to struggle with because in addition to having to pick the right winner I have to evaluate what games to apply more points to I've never been that good with confidence PickEms because I usually assign too high on the wrong games and end up getting a bunch of the lower confidence games right instead The fact is with Venice vs Cardinal Gibbons I think both teams are really at the same tier and could trade wins but Cardinal Gibbons Ranking is hurt with the AHP loss and remember this was Venice first loss all year with a very strong schedule Had Cardinal Gibbons not lost to AHP they would have jumped them just as Madison would have jumped Columbia if it wasn't for the Chiles loss There was a more detailed reason why I feel Columbia would win 70% of the time on a neutral field over Madison but it's not something I can discuss on a public board just as I'm sure most people who do rankings don't share every detail of their ranking process and usually only gives bits and pieces of information as to not give away their formula
  20. I think 1a is wide open at this point Region 2 is pretty average so Madison at the worst should make final 4 Region 3 should be Union County Region 4 will come down to Pahokee vs Hawthorne I think those are the biggest threats to Madison County at this stage as all those 4 are in the same tier so I see it being one of those 4 winning 1A but idk where each team will be come postseason so it's hard to say who's the favorite right now
  21. If Madison was ranked before the week they would have There were a lot of factors in the game that led to where they were ranked and the Chiles loss still hurts Madison resume and based on what I saw with both teams if played on a neutral site Columbia would win 70% of the time over Madison which was enough to put them same tier because of their positioning in the rankings but not enough to jump them from unranked while also having them jump some other teams between Madison and Columbia Your welcome to do your own rankings and put them wherever you like but I do have over 6 years of experience doing these rankings statewide now so I've gotten used to trying to find the right way to evaluate different approaches to rankings until I found a system that seems to work as evidenced by how the top half of the rankings are and how it's very similar to other ranking services give it take a few teams spots
  22. They dropped from 27 to 43 (16 drop) The reason they didn't drop as far as Rockledge (who was in the top 25) was because Madison wasn't that far from the top 50 after their win over Florida High and had Madison not had a loss to Winless Chiles earlier this year they would have been in the top 50 two weeks ago The rule of thumb in my rankings with unranked losses is the size of drop depends on 1 how they lost (margin of victory, overall performance, etc) and 2 how far was the gap between the team who lost and the team who beat them Merritt Island was much lower coming into last week than Madison was so Columbia didn't drop as far for their loss as Rockledge did If both teams are ranked then they may end up switching positions relatively if they are ranked close together (see West Orange jumping Osceola) depending upon how the game happened In the case of Venice vs Cardinal Gibbons they were separated significantly with Venice at number 1 and Cardinal Gibbons at 17 last week but with how close they played and looking at the box score and in addition their loss to a down AHP team kept me from jumping them ahead and simply dropped Venice a few spots and put Cardinal Gibbons back in the top 10
  23. Well technically only the deadline for that specific game has to be moved up But most people have their picks in by Thursday anyway
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