FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 4A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Thirty-two teams. Four regions. One step closer to the state championships at the AdventHealth Training Center in Tampa — The training home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Alonso (Tampa) returns as the defending Class 4A state champion and still owns the strongest FPRI profile in the classification. Wellington , last year’s state runner-up, is back in the field with another title-level résumé. Miami Palmetto and Spruce Creek (Port Orange) , both 2025 state semifinalists, are also back in the bracket.

At the top, Class 4A has a clear standard.

Alonso (Tampa) is unbeaten, owns the No. 1 rating in the entire 4A field, and has built a +438 point differential against a strong schedule. That is the cleanest profile in the bracket.

Behind the Ravens, though, the bracket gets heavy fast.

Park Vista (Lake Worth) is unbeaten. Harmony is 16-1. Western (Davie) has one of the strongest schedules in the entire classification. Wellington is still dangerous. Miami Palmetto , Spanish River (Boca Raton) , Celebration , Bloomingdale (Valrico), and Plant (Tampa) all bring profiles that can make the bracket uncomfortable.

That is where FPRI matters.

The numbers separate the obvious favorites from the teams whose seed lines might be hiding something.

CLASS 4A FPRI BOARD

At the top, Alonso (Tampa) has created real distance. The Ravens are 17-0 with a 71.57 FPRI rating, a +438 point differential, and the No. 18 SOS. That is not just dominance. That is dominance with proof.

The next layer is strong, too. Park Vista (Lake Worth) is 15-0 with a 58.38 rating, while Harmony sits at 55.08 with a +404 point differential. Western (Davie) may be the most interesting team in that group because its 51.49 rating is paired with the No. 3 SOS in Class 4A.

Then comes the South Florida pressure point.

Wellington , Miami Palmetto , Spanish River (Boca Raton) , Palm Beach Gardens , Ferguson (Miami), and Coral Gables all come from regions where the schedules are doing real work. Palm Beach Gardens has the No. 2 SOS. Western is No. 3. Spanish River is No. 4. Miami Palmetto is No. 5.

That matters.

In Class 4A, the bracket is not just about who has the best record. It is about who has already been living in playoff-style games.

CLASS 4A POWER 16 (FPRI)

Rank Team Name Record Rating SOS 1 Alonso (Tampa) 17-0 71.58 10.56 2 Park Vista (Lake Worth) 15-0 58.38 6.16 3 Harmony 16-1 55.23 6.83 4 Western (Davie) 13-3 51.49 22.14 5 Wellington 11-2 51.19 10.43 6 Miami Palmetto 13-4 45.64 20.13 7 Spanish River (Boca Raton) 12-5 42.98 21.96 8 Celebration 13-4 42.63 8.57 9 Bloomingdale (Valrico) 11-7 42.49 18.70 10 West Orange (Winter Garden) 13-3 40.19 5.43 11 Plant (Tampa) 11-4 39.38 13.66 12 Fort Pierce Central 11-5 39.30 15.83 13 Steinbrenner (Lutz) 12-5 37.59 12.63 14 Timber Creek (Orlando) 14-2 34.36 -12.90 15 Lennard (Ruskin) 9-7 31.35 25.57 16 Mandarin (Jacksonville) 14-2 30.07 -10.69

THE GAMES TO WATCH

All games Wednesday, April 29

No. 7 Spruce Creek (Port Orange) (10-7) at No. 2 Seminole (Sanford) (11-2), 7 PM

This is the danger spot for defending semifinalists.

Spruce Creek (Port Orange) does not have a full-season public stat profile available, with only limited stats entered, so this becomes more about what the Hawks have already proven as a program and how tight the model sees the matchup. FPRI does not treat this like a typical No. 7 vs. No. 2 game.

Seminole (Sanford) has the cleaner statistical case. The Seminoles have allowed only 64 points all season and bring a disruptive defense with 96 sacks and 30 interceptions. Miyauna Ross has been a two-way force with 748 passing yards, 336 rushing yards, 312 receiving yards, 12 total offensive touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.

Offensively, Marissa Lozano and Ross have split quarterback production, combining for 22 touchdown passes. Tierra Lewis has been the top receiving threat with 620 yards and nine touchdowns.

Spruce Creek’s postseason credibility keeps this dangerous. Seminole’s defensive pressure is why the model gives the Seminoles the narrow edge.

FPRI Projection: Seminole (Sanford) 20, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) 18 Win Probability: Seminole 55.8% | Spruce Creek 44.2% Forecast: Seminole 2 over Spruce Creek

No. 4 Steinbrenner (Lutz) (12-5) at No. 5 West Orange (Winter Garden) (13-3), 5 PM

This is where résumé and efficiency both point in the same direction.

Steinbrenner (Lutz) brings the stronger strength of schedule and a high-volume passing attack led by Sydney Roder (2,235 yards, 29 TDs), with Cecilia Leon and Leah Myers combining for 1,151 yards and 25 touchdowns. Defensively, the Warriors can create chaos, with 54 sacks — including 36 from Kathryn Williams — and 33 interceptions, giving them the ability to flip momentum quickly.

But West Orange (Winter Garden) has been the more complete team. Freshman quarterback Kendall Morales (2,099 yards, 29 TDs) has operated efficiently, while Chakayla Scott (898 yards, 15 TDs) impacts the game on both sides with eight interceptions. With Kaitlyn Hardy , Jada Concepcion , and Julianna Turri adding balance, West Orange consistently spreads production and limits mistakes.

Steinbrenner’s résumé is strong, but West Orange’s efficiency, balance, and ability to control possessions carry more weight here — especially in a matchup projected beyond a one-score margin.

FPRI Projection: West Orange (Winter Garden) 23, Steinbrenner (Lutz) 19 Win Probability: West Orange 67.0% | Steinbrenner 33.0% Forecast: West Orange 4 over Steinbrenner

No. 3 Lennard (Ruskin) (9-7) at No. 6 Bloomingdale (Valrico) (11-7), 7 PM

This is not just a playoff game.

This is the Battle of the Beef .

Lennard (Ruskin) won the first meeting 26-12 back on March 7, but that result comes with context. Bloomingdale (Valrico) lost seven of its first eight games before flipping the season, starting with a 25-20 win over Robinson on March 9. Since then, the Bulls have been one of the hottest teams in Class 4A.

Lennard has the No. 1 SOS in Class 4A and one of the most productive passing attacks in the field. Sydney Elizondo has thrown for 3,626 yards and 53 touchdowns, while Grace Valenzuela , Makenzie Walker , Hope Hensley , and Willow Rager give the Longhorns a deep receiving group.

Bloomingdale counters with balance and momentum. Alexia Serniotti has thrown for 2,768 yards and 37 touchdowns, while Aydan Walker and Amariana Cherry have combined for 1,877 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns. Defensively, Bloomingdale has 35 interceptions, with Walker and Serniotti combining for 21.

The first meeting belongs to Lennard.

The current profile belongs to Bloomingdale.

FPRI Projection: Bloomingdale (Valrico) 28, Lennard (Ruskin) 15 Win Probability: Bloomingdale 88.3% | Lennard 11.7% Forecast: Bloomingdale 13 over Lennard

No. 7 Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) (12-3) at No. 2 Western (Davie) (13-3), 6 PM

This is not a mystery matchup. It is a rematch with a receipt.

Western (Davie) and Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) met last week in the District 4A-14 championship, with Western winning 12-6 on April 22. That score matters because it cuts through the larger model gap and shows this matchup can tighten quickly.

Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) has the offense to make this interesting. AnaBella Puccio has thrown for 2,767 yards and 51 touchdowns, while Audrey Haltiwanger , Elayna Garzon , Courtney Heymach , Avery Shah , and Caitlin Taylor give the Eagles a deep group of targets.

The Eagles can defend, too, with 61 sacks and 32 interceptions. Katie Diaz has 27 sacks, while Mickayla Sugrano has 10 interceptions.

But Western (Davie) still has the stronger full profile. The Wildcats own the No. 3 SOS in Class 4A and have already proven they can win this exact matchup. Brianna Rutecki has thrown for 2,976 yards and 37 touchdowns, while Maddison Ojeda has 1,105 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.

FPRI sees separation, but last week says this could be tighter than the projection. Western has the edge because it has the schedule-tested profile and the recent head-to-head result.

FPRI Projection: Western (Davie) 36 Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) 12 Win Probability: Western 97.4% | Stoneman Douglas 2.6% Forecast: Western 24 over Stoneman Douglas

FULL REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PICKS

All games Wednesday, April 29

Region 1

No. 1 Mandarin (Jacksonville) (14-2) at No. 8 Ocoee (10-8), 6 PM Mandarin has the better rating, a better scoring profile, and a +193-point differential. Ocoee has been competitive, but the efficiency gap is too wide.

FPRI Projection: Mandarin (Jacksonville) 25, Ocoee 10 Win Probability: Mandarin 90.1% | Ocoee 9.9% Forecast: Mandarin 15 over Ocoee

No. 4 Flagler Palm Coast (12-5) at No. 5 Forest (Ocala) (14-3), 7 PM Forest has been one of the stronger defensive teams in the region, allowing only 73 points with a +294 differential. Flagler Palm Coast has a solid record, but Forest’s defensive profile creates separation.

FPRI Projection: Forest (Ocala) 25, Flagler Palm Coast 12 Win Probability: Forest 88.6% | Flagler Palm Coast 11.4% Forecast: Forest 13 over Flagler Palm Coast

No. 7 Spruce Creek (Port Orange) (10-7) at No. 2 Seminole (Sanford) (11-2), 7 PM This is the tightest game in Region 1. Seminole has the better defensive profile, but Spruce Creek has enough postseason pedigree and a stronger point differential to keep it tight.

FPRI Projection: Seminole (Sanford) 20, Spruce Creek (Port Orange) 18 Win Probability: Seminole 55.8% | Spruce Creek 44.2% Forecast: Seminole 2 over Spruce Creek

No. 6 Tocoi Creek (St. Augustine) (9-7) at No. 3 Timber Creek (Orlando) (14-2), 7 PM Timber Creek has a +297 point differential and has allowed only 71 points all season. Tocoi Creek has played a better schedule, but the scoring gap is too much.

FPRI Projection: Timber Creek (Orlando) 30, Tocoi Creek (St. Augustine) 9 Win Probability: Timber Creek 96.1% | Tocoi Creek 3.9% Forecast: Timber Creek 21 over Tocoi Creek

Region 2

No. 8 Haines City (8-4) at No. 1 Alonso (Tampa) (17-0), 7 PM Alonso (is the defending state champion, unbeaten, and sitting on a 71.57 FPRI rating. Haines City has a winning record, but Alonso’s +438 point differential and No. 18 SOS make this the biggest mismatch in Class 4A.

FPRI Projection: Alonso (Tampa) 56, Haines City 0 Win Probability: Alonso 100.0% | Haines City 0.0% Forecast: Alonso 56 over Haines City

No. 4 Steinbrenner (Lutz) (12-5) at No. 5 West Orange (Winter Garden) (12-4), 5 PM Steinbrenner’s résumé shows up on paper with a stronger strength of schedule and slightly higher raw rating, but the projection flips because of efficiency and control. West Orange has been cleaner possession-to-possession, pairs that with better defensive efficiency, and gets the home-field bump — which together outweighs Steinbrenner’s pressure-based upside in this matchup.

FPRI Projection: West Orange (Winter Garden) 23, Steinbrenner (Lutz) 19 Win Probability: West Orange 67.0% | Steinbrenner 33.0% Forecast: West Orange 4 over Steinbrenner

No. 7 Horizon (Winter Garden) (13-3) at No. 2 Plant (Tampa) (11-4), 7 PM Horizon has the better record and a strong +237 differential, but Plant has been tested more, ranking No. 9 in Class 4A SOS. That schedule strength matters in a one-score projection.

FPRI Projection: Plant (Tampa) 28, Horizon (Winter Garden) 16 Win Probability: Plant 86.0% | Horizon 14.0% Forecast: Plant 12 over Horizon

No. 3 Lennard (Ruskin) (9-7) at No. 6 Bloomingdale (Valrico) (11-7), 7 PM The seed line says Lennard is higher, but the numbers say Bloomingdale (Valrico). Bloomingdale has a top-nine Class 4A rating, a +156 differential, and enough SOS strength to control the matchup.

FPRI Projection: Bloomingdale (Valrico) 28, Lennard (Ruskin) 15 Win Probability: Bloomingdale 88.3% | Lennard 11.7% Forecast: Bloomingdale 13 over Lennard

Region 3

No. 8 Cypress Creek (Orlando) (9-5) at No. 1 Harmony (16-1), 6 PM Harmony brings a 55.08 rating, a +404 point differential, and one of the cleanest profiles in Class 4A. Cypress Creek has a winning record, but this is a massive jump in class.

FPRI Projection: Harmony 48, Cypress Creek (Orlando) 0 Win Probability: Harmony 100.0% | Cypress Creek 0.0% Forecast: Harmony 48 over Cypress Creek

No. 5 Palm Beach Gardens (7-6) at No. 4 Celebration (13-4), 7 PM Palm Beach Gardens has the No. 2 SOS in Class 4A, so the record needs context. Still, Celebration has a +396-point differential and enough offensive firepower to make the model lean heavily in its favor.

FPRI Projection: Celebration 33, Palm Beach Gardens 14 Win Probability: Celebration 94.4% | Palm Beach Gardens 5.6% Forecast: Celebration 19 over Palm Beach Gardens

No. 7 Jupiter (13-4) at No. 2 Wellington (11-2), 7 PM Jupiter has a strong record, but Wellington has the defending runner-up profile, a top-five rating, and allowed only 57 points. The gap is the defensive ceiling.

FPRI Projection: Wellington 34, Jupiter 9 Win Probability: Wellington 98.5% | Jupiter 1.5% Forecast: Wellington 28 over Jupiter

No. 6 Palm Beach Central (Wellington) (13-4) at No. 3 Fort Pierce Central (11-5), 5 PM Palm Beach Central has more wins, but Fort Pierce Central owns the stronger rating, stronger SOS, and better point differential. That profile gives Fort Pierce Central clear control.

FPRI Projection: Fort Pierce Central 24, Palm Beach Central (Wellington) 12 Win Probability: Fort Pierce Central 85.4% | Palm Beach Central 14.6% Forecast: Fort Pierce Central 12 over Palm Beach Central

Region 4

No. 8 Hialeah Gardens (10-4) at No. 1 Park Vista (Lake Worth) (15-0), 7 PM Park Vista is unbeaten with a +350 point differential and just 57 points allowed. Hialeah Gardens has a solid record, but the gap in defensive dominance is massive.

FPRI Projection: Park Vista (Lake Worth) 41, Hialeah Gardens 0 Win Probability: Park Vista 99.8% | Hialeah Gardens 0.2% Forecast: Park Vista 41 over Hialeah Gardens

No. 5 Ferguson (Miami) (9-3) at No. 4 Spanish River (Boca Raton) (12-5), 7 PM Ferguson has been efficient defensively, allowing only 46 points, but Spanish River has the No. 4 SOS in Class 4A and a top-seven rating. The schedule edge is significant.

FPRI Projection: Spanish River (Boca Raton) 27, Ferguson (Miami) 8 Win Probability: Spanish River 94.6% | Ferguson 5.4% Forecast: Spanish River 19 over Ferguson

No. 7 Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) (12-3) at No. 2 Western (Davie) (13-3), 6 PM Stoneman Douglas has the scoring profile to make this interesting, but Western has the No. 3 SOS and a top-four FPRI rating. That schedule-tested edge gives Western real separation.

FPRI Projection: Western (Davie) 36, Stoneman Douglas (Parkland) 12 Win Probability: Western 97.4% | Stoneman Douglas 2.6% Forecast: Western 24 over Stoneman Douglas

No. 6 Coral Gables (11-5) at No. 3 Miami Palmetto (13-4), 3:30 PM Coral Gables has a good record and a top-15 SOS, but Miami Palmetto has been tested even more, with a No. 5 SOS and a stronger rating. The Panthers’ overall profile is built for this spot.

FPRI Projection: Miami Palmetto 26, Coral Gables 7 Win Probability: Miami Palmetto 95.1% | Coral Gables 4.9% Forecast: Miami Palmetto 19 over Coral Gables

FINAL TAKE

Class 4A has a clear favorite.

It also has the deepest collection of dangerous teams.

Alonso (Tampa) is the standard until someone changes it. The Ravens are unbeaten, defending state champions, and still sitting on the best FPRI profile in the class.

But the road behind them is loaded.

Park Vista (Lake Worth) , Harmony , Western (Davie) , Wellington , Miami Palmetto , Spanish River (Boca Raton), and Celebration all bring numbers that can survive multiple rounds.

The middle is where this bracket gets tricky.

Spruce Creek (Port Orange) can make Region 1 uncomfortable. West Orange (Winter Garden) and Plant (Tampa) sit in tight projections. Western (Davie) has the schedule-tested profile to make noise. Spanish River (Boca Raton) and Miami Palmetto are both built through difficult South Florida paths.

The favorite is obvious.

The road is not.

And in Class 4A, the bracket will not wait long to show where the road to Tampa gets complicated.

(Updated to correct a processing error found in the forecast due to a score reporting issue for Steinbrenner-West Orange. That correction led to changes in the forecasts for both the game and the Horizon-Plant game.

FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 4A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Alonso sits alone at the top, but Class 4A has enough heavyweight depth to make the road behind the defending champs anything but clean.

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FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 4A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Alonso sits alone at the top, but Class 4A has enough heavyweight depth to make the road behind the defending champs anything but clean.

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