CENTRAL FLORIDA POWER 15: Lake Mary Holds No. 1 as Osceola Rockets to No. 2 After Statement Win

Central Florida undergoes its biggest reshuffling of the season after a Week 3 filled with results that dramatically changed the regional picture. Lake Mary remains No. 1, but its hold on the top spot is suddenly razor-thin after Osceola defeated the Rams 17-9 at Doug Peters Field. The Kowboys respond with a massive 10-position climb from No. 12 to No. 2 and now sit only 0.40 rating points behind Lake Mary.

The First Academy moves into the No. 3 position after winning at Port Charlotte, while Jones climbs to No. 4 following its defensive victory over Evans. Edgewater moves back into the top five, and West Orange remains unbeaten despite being pushed down several positions by stronger movement around it.

The biggest changes come farther down the rankings. Bishop Moore surges seven spots into the top 10, Innovation climbs nine positions, Winter Park jumps 10 spots after beating Lake Nona, and Mount Dora Christian moves into the Power 15. Ocoee also makes a major move just outside the rankings after beating Apopka.

FPRI Methodology Update

Readers may notice more movement than usual in this week’s FPRI rankings.

After reviewing how the first three weeks of the 2026 season were being reflected in the model, several refinements were made to better balance preseason expectations with actual on-field results. The changes were applied consistently across the entire statewide dataset and were not made to benefit or penalize individual teams.

The biggest update involves head-to-head results. FPRI now gives stronger recognition to statement wins over teams that entered a game rated significantly higher, but it does so in a controlled way. Rather than automatically transferring the defeated opponent’s full rating to the winner, the system moves the winning team part of the way toward that opponent’s pregame strength.

The model also now considers what happens after that win. A later loss to an elite or higher-rated opponent does not erase the value of an earlier statement victory, while a later loss to a significantly lower-rated opponent can reduce how much of that head-to-head boost remains.

Quality wins were also refined. Instead of using hard rating cutoffs that could create abrupt jumps in bonus value, the quality-win component now uses a smoother scale and gives more consideration to current-season performance when a team has already exceeded its preseason expectation.

A 35-point per-game margin-of-victory cap has also been added to the rating calculation. Actual scores and point differentials remain unchanged in the published statistics, but margins beyond 35 points no longer continue increasing a team’s rating. This helps prevent extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight in the overall formula.

Preseason ratings still remain part of FPRI early in the season because the sample size is small, but that influence continues to decline as more games are played and more 2026 data becomes available. Because these refinements are being applied to games already played this season, some teams may make larger-than-normal moves in this week’s rankings.

That movement is expected as the model adjusts to the stronger body of current-season evidence. As the season progresses, FPRI should naturally become more stable while remaining responsive to meaningful wins, losses, opponent strength and head-to-head results.

Lake Mary Stays No. 1 — But Osceola Nearly Erases a 31-Point Gap

The most important result in Central Florida came directly at the top of the rankings, where Osceola traveled to Lake Mary and defeated the Rams 17-9. The victory handed Lake Mary its first loss of the season and gave the FPRI a direct head-to-head comparison between two teams that entered the week separated by a substantial rating gap.

Osceola responds with one of the largest moves anywhere in the regional rankings. The Kowboys climb 10 positions from No. 12 to No. 2 and now carry an 84.00 FPRI rating, while Lake Mary remains No. 1 at 84.40. The difference between them is now just 0.40 rating points.

That naturally creates an obvious question: If Osceola beat Lake Mary head-to-head, why is Lake Mary still No. 1?

The answer begins with where the two teams entered the game. Lake Mary carried a 91.29 FPRI rating before Week 3, while Osceola entered at 60.13. That represented a massive 31.16-point difference between the two programs before kickoff.

FPRI’s updated head-to-head component is designed to recognize a result exactly like Osceola’s victory. When a significantly lower-rated team defeats an opponent that entered the game far above it, the winner receives a substantial adjustment that moves it toward the defeated opponent’s pregame strength. That is precisely what happened here.

Osceola rose from 60.13 to 84.00, gaining 23.87 rating points in a single update. Lake Mary fell from 91.29 to 84.40, a decline of 6.89 points. Together, those changes reduced what had been a 31.16-point gap before the game to only 0.40 afterward.

The key is that the head-to-head adjustment is powerful without being absolute. FPRI does not simply make the winner one point better than the loser after every head-to-head result because doing so would allow one game to completely erase every other piece of evidence already contained in the model. Instead, that result is weighed alongside current-season performance, opponent strength, margin of victory, preseason information and the rest of each team’s résumé.

Osceola therefore received enormous recognition for beating Lake Mary. The Kowboys simply started too far behind for an eight-point victory to completely cross the remaining threshold in one update.

For Osceola to have taken over No. 1 immediately, its complete postgame calculation needed to finish above Lake Mary’s recalculated 84.40 rating. It stopped at 84.00. A more decisive victory could have created additional performance value, but there is no simple formula that says winning by one more point would automatically have been enough.

The more important point is that Osceola does not need to beat Lake Mary again to move ahead. The Kowboys can cross that threshold as additional victories strengthen their résumé, preseason influence continues to decline and opponent-strength information becomes more developed. Lake Mary’s future results will simultaneously affect its own rating.

Week 4 immediately gives both teams opportunities to influence that race. Osceola hosts Lakeland, while Lake Mary travels to No. 7 DeLand. If Osceola continues adding high-level wins while Lake Mary’s profile does not strengthen at the same rate, the remaining 0.40-point difference could disappear very quickly.

Before Week 3, Lake Mary led Osceola by 31.16 rating points. One head-to-head result has reduced that advantage to 0.40. That is not evidence that the result was ignored — it shows just how dramatically the FPRI reacted to it.

The First Academy Moves Into the Top Three

The First Academy continues building one of the strongest early-season résumés in Central Florida. The Royals traveled to Port Charlotte and came away with a 23-20 victory, moving one position to No. 3 with an 81.03 FPRI rating.

What makes The First Academy’s start particularly valuable is the variety of results already on its résumé. The Royals opened the season by overwhelming Dr. Phillips 58-7, then defeated previously No. 2-ranked Edgewater 21-14 before surviving a close road game against Port Charlotte.

Those three games have given the FPRI multiple types of current-season evidence to evaluate. The Royals have shown they can dominate an opponent, win against another highly rated regional team and finish a competitive road game.

The First Academy now sits only 2.97 rating points behind Osceola and 3.37 behind Lake Mary. With another road matchup against South Lake in Week 4, the Royals remain firmly involved in what has quickly become a much tighter race near the top.

Jones Beats Evans and Climbs to No. 4

Jones and Evans produced another important head-to-head result inside the Power 15 when the Tigers defeated the Trojans 12-6. The victory moves Jones one position to No. 4 with an 80.53 rating and strengthens its place among the region’s leading teams.

The result is particularly useful for the FPRI because it provides a direct comparison between two teams that had already shown very different early-season profiles. Evans entered with momentum after beating Boone 47-13, while Jones had fewer current-season results because of its early open date.

Jones now owns the result that matters most when comparing the two directly. The Tigers sit only 0.50 points behind The First Academy and remain less than four points from the top spot.

Evans moves in the opposite direction, falling four positions to No. 14. The Trojans have now paired a narrow Week 1 loss to Lake Nona with a dominant win over Boone and a six-point loss to Jones, giving the FPRI three very different performances to sort through.

Jones hosts Boone on Thursday night in Week 4, while Evans gets another immediate head-to-head opportunity when it travels to Winter Park.

Edgewater Moves Back Into the Top Five

Edgewater continues rebuilding its position after the Week 2 loss to The First Academy. The Eagles defeated Windermere 42-28 and move one position to No. 5 with a 78.12 rating.

The Eagles’ early résumé is becoming increasingly useful as more context develops around their opponents. Edgewater opened with a convincing victory over Ocoee, lost by seven to The First Academy and then responded with a two-touchdown win over Windermere.

The First Academy’s continued success also gives additional context to Edgewater’s only loss. As an opponent continues winning and climbing, a close loss against that team can carry a different meaning than it did immediately after the game.

Edgewater remains only 2.41 rating points behind Jones and just over three points behind The First Academy. The Eagles travel to Lake Nona in Week 4, where another win would help stabilize their place inside the top five.

West Orange Remains Unbeaten but Falls to No. 6

West Orange produces one of the more unusual combinations of result and movement this week. The Warriors crushed Wekiva 59-6 and remain unbeaten, yet fall four positions from No. 2 to No. 6 with a 77.95 rating.

That drop does not mean West Orange performed poorly. It reflects the magnitude of the information created elsewhere in Central Florida. Osceola defeated the regional No. 1, The First Academy added another road win, Jones gained a direct head-to-head victory over Evans and Edgewater continued strengthening its résumé.

West Orange still owns one of the better overall early-season profiles in the region. The Warriors have defeated Archbishop Hoban, Horizon and Wekiva and carry a strong strength-of-schedule figure.

The 59-6 result also shows why the new margin-of-victory cap matters. West Orange won by 53 points, but only the first 35 points of margin affect the FPRI calculation. The actual score remains unchanged in the statistics, but extreme margins no longer continue increasing a team’s rating indefinitely.

Week 4 brings an intriguing matchup with Ocoee, which has climbed rapidly after beating Apopka.

DeLand’s Schedule Keeps the Bulldogs in the Mix

DeLand moves one position to No. 7 with a 75.36 rating and continues to carry one of the most demanding schedules in Central Florida. The Bulldogs’ strength-of-schedule figure sits well above most of the regional Power 15.

That context matters when evaluating DeLand’s early results. The Bulldogs opened with a dramatic 35-34 victory over Lake Wales before falling 49-35 to national power St. Frances Academy.

A loss against that level of opponent does not carry the same weight as a loss to a much weaker team. The quality of opposition provides important context when the FPRI evaluates the complete body of work.

That makes Week 4 especially important. Lake Mary comes to Spec Martin Memorial Stadium, giving DeLand a direct opportunity against the regional No. 1. A Bulldogs victory would create another major head-to-head result capable of reshaping the top portion of the rankings.

Seminole Remains Unbeaten but Gets Squeezed by Movement Above

Seminole improves to 3-0 after defeating Eau Gallie 27-13, but the Seminoles still fall three positions to No. 8 with a 72.90 rating.

Their own résumé has done little wrong. Seminole has now beaten Mountain Vista, Lake Howell and Eau Gallie and continues supplying the FPRI with positive current-season results.

The problem is simply that several teams around the Seminoles created stronger movement. Osceola made an enormous climb after beating Lake Mary, while Jones, Edgewater and DeLand also gained ground.

That is one of the realities of a regional ranking. Winning does not guarantee a team will remain in the same position if other teams produce results that carry greater rating value.

Seminole hosts University (Orange City) on Thursday night with another opportunity to add to its unbeaten start.

Spruce Creek Remains in the Top 10

Spruce Creek also wins but moves slightly backward, falling two positions to No. 9 after defeating Titusville 23-14.

The Hawks carry a 71.98 FPRI rating and remain less than one point behind Seminole. Their strength of schedule also continues to provide useful context around an early-season résumé that has kept them firmly inside the upper portion of the region.

Like Seminole, Spruce Creek’s drop is driven more by what happened around it than by anything negative in its own result. The Hawks continue to win, but Central Florida’s rapid movement has created upward pressure from teams producing major head-to-head results.

Spruce Creek travels to Deltona in Week 4 looking to strengthen its hold inside the top 10.

Bishop Moore Rockets Into the Top 10

Bishop Moore produces one of the largest jumps in this week’s Central Florida rankings. The Hornets climb seven positions from No. 17 to No. 10 following a 41-13 victory over Melbourne Central Catholic.

The move is significant because Bishop Moore began the week outside the Power 15 entirely. One strong result, combined with a demanding schedule and the methodology refinements, pushes the Hornets all the way into the top 10.

Bishop Moore now carries a 65.70 rating and sits directly ahead of another rapidly rising program in Innovation.

The Hornets travel to Seabreeze in Week 4, where another victory could help turn this week’s sharp climb into a more stable position.

Innovation Continues Its Rapid Rise

Innovation is quickly becoming one of the most interesting early-season stories in the region.

The Bulls defeated University 41-9 and climb nine positions from No. 20 to No. 11 with a 64.58 rating.

That rise reflects the increasing importance of current-season evidence. Innovation began well outside the regional Power 15, but each additional result gives the FPRI more reason to move away from where the Bulls started before the season.

Innovation is now only 1.12 points behind Bishop Moore and has moved into position to challenge for a top-10 spot.

The Bulls host Lake Buena Vista on Thursday night with an opportunity to continue building on that momentum.

Winter Park Forces Its Way Into the Power 15

Winter Park makes another major move after defeating Lake Nona 13-10.

The Wildcats climb 10 positions from No. 23 to No. 13 with a 62.75 rating, giving the FPRI an important direct result involving a Lake Nona team that had already beaten Evans earlier in the season.

That head-to-head result gives Winter Park meaningful current-season evidence and helps explain the magnitude of the jump.

The Wildcats now sit only 0.08 points ahead of No. 14 Evans, setting up one of Week 4’s cleanest comparisons.

Winter Park hosts Evans at Showalter Field, meaning two teams separated by less than one-tenth of a rating point will settle their next comparison directly on the field.

Evans Falls While Mount Dora Christian Moves In

Evans drops four positions to No. 14 following its 12-6 loss to Jones.

The Trojans now carry a 62.67 rating and remain only a fraction of a point behind Winter Park. Their first three games have created a volatile résumé — a narrow loss to Lake Nona, a dominant victory over Boone and another close loss to Jones.

That combination keeps Evans inside the Power 15 but leaves little room for error.

Mount Dora Christian takes over the final position at No. 15 after defeating P.K. Yonge 36-6.

The Bulldogs climb four positions and now carry a 61.50 rating, pushing New Smyrna Beach narrowly outside the rankings.

The Chase Just Outside the Power 15

New Smyrna Beach sits immediately outside the Power 15 at No. 16 after overwhelming Lyman 55-0.

The Barracudas carry a 61.22 rating, leaving them only 0.28 points behind Mount Dora Christian for the final spot.

Lake Nona falls eight positions to No. 17 after losing 13-10 to Winter Park. The Lions now carry a 60.55 rating and remain less than one point outside the cutoff.

Ocoee makes one of the largest jumps anywhere in the region, climbing 13 positions to No. 18 after defeating Apopka 30-14.

The Knights’ early season has already produced several sharp swings. Edgewater handled Ocoee decisively in the opener, but the Knights responded by beating Dr. Phillips 7-3 before producing their strongest result yet against Apopka.

That gives the FPRI more evidence that Ocoee’s opening loss may not define the team moving forward.

Flagler Palm Coast sits No. 19, while Dr. Phillips rounds out the top 20.

Only 0.95 points separate No. 15 Mount Dora Christian from No. 17 Lake Nona, leaving the Power 15 cutoff vulnerable to another major reshuffling in Week 4.

Week 4 Spotlight: Lake Mary Heads to DeLand

Lake Mary gets no time to dwell on its first loss.

The Rams travel to Spec Martin Memorial Stadium on Friday night to face No. 7 DeLand in one of the most important Central Florida games of Week 4.

Lake Mary still holds the No. 1 ranking, but only 0.40 points separate the Rams from Osceola. That means every significant result now has the potential to affect the regional lead.

DeLand presents a difficult opponent because the Bulldogs already carry one of the strongest schedules in the region. A Lake Mary victory would provide an immediate rebound against another highly rated team, while a DeLand victory would create yet another major head-to-head result at the top.

Osceola also faces a huge test when Lakeland visits Kowboy Field. The new No. 2 has just made one of the largest jumps in the state after beating Lake Mary and now gets an immediate opportunity to strengthen that new rating.

The First Academy travels to South Lake, while Jones hosts Boone on Thursday night.

Edgewater visits Lake Nona, giving the Lions a chance to respond after falling out of the Power 15.

West Orange hosts rapidly rising Ocoee in another matchup with significant regional implications. The Warriors remain unbeaten, but Ocoee has climbed sharply after beating Apopka.

Seminole hosts University (Orange City), Spruce Creek travels to Deltona and Bishop Moore visits Seabreeze.

Winter Park hosts Evans in perhaps the most direct matchup around the cutoff, with only 0.08 points separating the two teams.

Innovation hosts Lake Buena Vista, while Mount Dora Christian hosts Lake Highland Prep.

New Smyrna Beach travels to Winter Springs, Dr. Phillips visits Timber Creek and Flagler Palm Coast hosts First Coast.

Central Florida Now Has a True Race for No. 1

The Central Florida hierarchy looks dramatically different than it did only one week ago.

Lake Mary remains No. 1, but the Rams no longer have anything resembling a comfortable advantage. Osceola has moved from No. 12 to No. 2 after beating Lake Mary and has reduced what had been a 31.16-point rating deficit to only 0.40.

The First Academy has climbed into the top three after stacking three wins. Jones has moved to No. 4 after defeating Evans, while Edgewater has worked its way back into the top five.

West Orange remains unbeaten but has been pushed to No. 6 because of stronger movement elsewhere.

The middle and bottom of the rankings are changing just as quickly. Bishop Moore has gone from outside the Power 15 to the top 10. Innovation continues surging. Winter Park has forced its way into the rankings, and Mount Dora Christian now holds the final position.

Ocoee is also rapidly closing from outside the cutoff.

More importantly, the region is developing a much stronger network of direct results.

Osceola has beaten Lake Mary.

The First Academy has beaten Edgewater.

Jones has beaten Evans.

Winter Park has beaten Lake Nona.

Ocoee has beaten Apopka after previously losing to Edgewater.

Those connections give the FPRI increasingly strong current-season evidence and continue reducing the importance of preseason assumptions.

Week 4 could reshape the picture again.

Lake Mary gets DeLand. Osceola gets Lakeland. West Orange faces Ocoee. Edgewater gets Lake Nona. Winter Park and Evans meet with almost nothing separating them in the ratings.

Three weeks into the season, Central Florida has moved well beyond the preseason.

It now has a genuine race for No. 1 and very little stability underneath it.

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As more games are played, current performance and opponent strength will continue replacing preseason information within the ratings.

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