What changed this year
Florida’s first Open Division in football gave the state’s eight highest-ranked teams their own path to a championship, regardless of classification. The FHSAA Board of Directors voted 10-0 in June to create it. For football, the FHSAA said the eight teams would be selected from the MaxPreps rankings at the end of the regular season. The same rankings continue to play a large role in seeding the rest of the playoff brackets.
The field was announced Nov. 6. It decided who plays for a state title in the new format, and it decided who did not.
The problem: nobody can check the math
MaxPreps, an official FHSAA partner since 2017 for scores and statistics and the producer of those rankings, has said in its own explainers that it does not give away its full formula. It describes the ideas: results, strength of schedule, how teams connect through common opponents. It does not publish the weights.
That means a coach whose team just missed the top eight cannot be shown exactly why. The FHSAA staff cannot independently verify the result. A change inside the formula could move a team across the line and nobody outside the company would see it happen.
This is not a charge that the rankings are wrong. It is a statement that a decision this big should rest on rules people can read. Arizona, where the FHSAA says it got the Open Division idea, publishes the research its rankings formula is based on.
Coaches have noticed. On Nov. 9, the Florida Coaches Coalition sent MaxPreps a three-page letter asking for the formula, the data that goes into it and the weight of each factor, according to Alan Zlotorzynski of Brevard Sports Network. The coalition’s executive director, Dr. Andrew Ramjit, whose organization represents about 17,000 Florida coaches, told the outlet that “Even the FHSAA doesn’t have access to the complete formula.”
In posts on X on Oct. 27 and Nov. 4, Steve Montoya (@SMontoyaMP), senior director of content and social at MaxPreps and PlayOn Sports, described how MaxPreps handles its process. It says it looks only at score data and that its ratings are not fully based on the current season until around Week 4. The weights are not published.
So we built the alternative, and we are showing all of it.
How we got here
FPRI is not a new idea for us. We have worked on it for years, trying to find the right numbers and the right things to calculate, with one rule from start to finish: do not influence the results by hand. The formula decides, not us.
2026 is the year it came together. The rankings finally gelled and produced the results we had been hoping to see. That did not happen by leaving the formula alone. We made direct changes to the formula during the season as we worked out which factors were truly missing and why they mattered. That work is a big reason we were quiet for part of the season, outside of our Friday night scoreboards and similar coverage. Every change was to how all teams are calculated, never to where one team should land. The formula published below is the one we run from the preseason of this year, and this season’s ratings have been generated in full with it, from that point until now. It is not the early version of the formula that readers may have seen at the start of the season. Every week of ratings on the site now comes from this one formula.
The other milestone is behind the scenes. FPRI used to run from an Excel workbook. It now runs fully on our own server in Python 3, driven directly by the game data entered on FloridaHSFootball.com. That means rankings can be generated quickly, straight from the results, and anyone with the published settings and the results can check the same math.
The Florida Power Rankings Index in plain English
First you are going to need this link: Rankings (it will open in a new tab/window)
The Florida Power Rankings Index, or FPRI, answers one question: how many points would this team beat an average Florida team by, on a neutral field? That number is the team’s rating. Because every rating is in points, you can compare any two teams by subtracting.
Here is how it is built.
1. Every team starts with an expectation. Before kickoff, each team gets a starting rating built from its results in the last two seasons. This matters most in September. As games pile up, what a team actually did takes over from what was expected of it. There is no cutoff week. The starting rating just carries less and less weight with every game.
2. The score matters, with a limit. We look at who won and by how much. A 28-point win is stronger than a 3-point win. But there is a point where running up the score stops helping, so a 56-point win is not treated as twice as impressive as a 28-point win. We want to reward good teams without rewarding piling on.
3. Who you played matters as much as what you did. A 10-point win over a strong team is worth more than a 10-point win over a weak one. We do not solve this by counting opponents’ win-loss records. All teams are rated together, in one calculation, so every team’s number depends on its opponents’ numbers, and theirs depend on their own opponents.
4. Home field is counted. A road win is worth more than the same win at home.
5. Out-of-state teams are rated, and listed only if they play a Florida team. Florida teams play opponents from other states, and those games have to count fairly. So every out-of-state team that plays a Florida team is tracked: we record its games against Florida teams, with the scores and results, and rate it alongside the Florida teams. Each of those teams needs a fair starting rating, and for that we use High School Football America’s HSFA 300 national list. We chose HSFA because it is independent and we have found it reliable. It is a computer ranking built on the company’s own formula, which we do not know, so we use only a team’s rank as a starting point. Its results against Florida teams then move the rating from there, with the starting point carrying less weight with every game. That is how an out-of-state team ends up compared fairly with Florida teams: the national list sets where it begins, and the games decide where it finishes. Florida teams that appear in the HSFA 300 also have that rank blended into their starting ratings.
The four numbers on every team
- POWER: how strong the team is, in points. This is the number that predicts games.
- SOS (strength of schedule): the average POWER of the opponents the team has played.
- SOR (strength of record): how impressive the team’s actual record is, given its schedule. It asks how many games a top-25 team would be expected to win against the same opponents, and compares that with what the team did.
- OVERALL: the ranking number: 80% POWER and 20% SOR.
The forecasts
For every game on the schedule, FPRI projects a winner, a score, and a win probability for each team. Every forecast is graded against the real result and the running record is posted on the forecasts page, including the misses. This season FPRI’s projected winner has been right in 2,357 of 2,950 games, about 80%. In 11-man it is 2,269 of 2,828 (80%), and in 8-man 88 of 122 (72%). The record starts in Week 0, before a game was played. Each week’s picks come only from the preseason ratings plus the games played before that week, and each is graded against the real score.
One caution: the settings below were chosen by testing on past seasons, including this one, so those numbers are somewhat flattering. The posted record is the honest measure.
The full formula
This is everything, so that anyone can reproduce a rating from the public game results.
EACH GAME
margin = home points - away points
credit = 35 x tanh(margin / 35) - 2.4 (compressed margin, home edge removed)
model : credit is about (home rating - away rating), game noise = 14 points
RATINGS (all teams solved together)
Choose the ratings that best fit every game's credit AND stay close to each
team's starting rating, trusting each starting rating by how certain it is.
Starting-rating certainty: about 11 points for Florida teams with history;
1.5 times wider for teams without.
FOUR NUMBERS
POWER = the team's rating
SOS = average rating of opponents played
SOR = official wins (a tie is half a win)
minus the wins a top-25 team would be expected to have vs the same
schedule (normal curve, 18.8-point game spread)
OVERALL = 80% POWER + 20% SOR (standard scores), shown so the top team is near 100
FORECAST
projected margin = -2.30 + 1.38 x (rating gap + 2.4)
win probability = 1 / (1 + e^-(0.103 x margin - 0.029)), limited to 1%-99%
projected total = 2 x league-average team score + 1.09 + 0.72 x how far both
teams' offenses and defenses are from average (never below 20)
projected score = (total +/- margin) / 2 (margin capped at 42, loser at least 3)
CONFIDENCE LABELS (projected winner)
85% and up = Heavy favorite 70%-85% = Clear favorite
58%-70% = Slight edge below 58% = Toss-up
Starting point for SSAA and independent teams. Programs that play outside the FHSAA state series (SSAA members and independents) begin the season 10 points below an average Florida team. They don’t play district schedules, and they don’t face the same level of state-series competition as teams that enter the FHSAA playoffs; some coaches have said that was part of why they chose that route. The 10 points is our judgment, not a measured number, and it is only a starting point: once a team has played games, its results drive its rating. The three IMG Academy teams do not get the adjustment, because the Academy recruits nationally and isn’t comparable to a typical independent. Out-of-state teams don’t get it either. At Week 11 we tested removing it entirely. It moved SSAA and independent ratings by about 0.2 points on average. The same eight teams stayed in the top eight, though some neighbors swapped places, and in the top 25 no team moved more than three spots and one team traded places with the 25th.
How much the margin cap matters:
| Actual margin | Credit in the model | Share of the margin that counts |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6.9 | 99% |
| 14 | 13.3 | 95% |
| 21 | 18.8 | 90% |
| 28 | 23.2 | 83% |
| 35 | 26.7 | 76% |
| 42 | 29.2 | 69% |
| 49 | 31.0 | 63% |
| 56 | 32.3 | 58% |
What the cap does. Every game result is turned into a credit before it enters the ratings. In a close game, nearly every point of the margin counts: win by 7 and the model credits 6.9. As the margin grows, each extra point counts for less. The curve keeps rising, so a bigger win is always worth something, but it flattens out and can never go past 35. A 56-point win is worth 32.3, not 56.
Why it is smooth, not a hard cutoff. A simple way to limit blowouts is to pick a number, such as 35, and ignore everything beyond it. That creates a cliff: a 35-point win counts fully, and a 70-point win counts the same. FPRI avoids the cliff. The value of each additional point shrinks gradually, so there is no margin at which a team can “max out” and no margin where a late touchdown suddenly stops mattering.
What each extra seven points is worth.
| Margin range | Extra credit for those 7 points | Per point |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 7 | 6.9 | 0.99 |
| 7 to 14 | 6.4 | 0.91 |
| 14 to 21 | 5.5 | 0.79 |
| 21 to 28 | 4.4 | 0.63 |
| 28 to 35 | 3.5 | 0.50 |
| 35 to 42 | 2.5 | 0.36 |
| 42 to 49 | 1.8 | 0.26 |
| 49 to 56 | 1.3 | 0.19 |
The first touchdown of margin counts nearly in full. By the time a game is 35 points apart, each additional point counts for about half. Past 49, each point counts for less than a fifth.
A worked example. Say a team beats a weak opponent 35-0 and another team beats the same opponent 56-0. Under the cap, the first team is credited 26.7 and the second 32.3. The second team scored 21 more points of margin and earns 5.6 more points of credit. Without the cap, that gap would be the full 21.
Why we do it. The goal is to rate how good a team is, not how far it can push a lopsided game. A big margin tells us the two teams were mismatched, but past a point, more margin tells us little new. The last touchdowns of a lopsided game often depend on things like when starters come out or whether the clock is running, which say little about how good either team is. Meanwhile, a close win over a strong team is real information. The cap keeps a few blowouts from outweighing a season of results against good opponents, and it removes any reason for a team to run up the score to move a ranking.
What else you should know.
- The cap works in both directions. A team that loses by 56 is credited the same amount in the other direction, so a blowout loss is softened the same way a blowout win is.
- The home-field adjustment of 2.4 points is applied after the margin is compressed. The credits in the table are before that adjustment.
- The model treats each game as noisy, with about 14 points of random variation. A 14-point win is a clear win, but the model does not treat it as certain proof that one team is 14 points better.
- The shape and the 35-point scale were chosen by testing on past seasons, including this one. Both values are published in the formula above.
- This is a separate rule from the cap on projected scores. When FPRI forecasts a game, it limits the projected margin to 42. That limit only affects the score we display for a forecast, not any rating.
How a head-to-head result counts
Coaches often ask why a team can rank below one it beat. In FPRI, the game between two teams is the most direct evidence about how they compare, and it counts like every other game: the margin is capped, the home edge is removed, and the result is weighed against each team’s other results. It is not a tiebreaker.
How much it moves a rating depends on the margin. Across 2,712 games between two Florida teams this season, the winner finished with the higher POWER 89% of the time.
| Margin of the game | Games | Winner has the higher POWER |
|---|---|---|
| 1 to 7 points | 540 | 64% |
| 8 to 14 | 335 | 81% |
| 15 to 28 | 681 | 96% |
| 29 or more | 1,156 | 99.7% |
A close win is weak evidence, so a team’s other results can outweigh it. A decisive win almost never gets overturned. Both teams’ game-by-game reports are on the site, so any ranking can be traced.
What FPRI does not do
- It does not use opinion, votes, brand names or coach input.
- It does not adjust ratings by hand once the season is under way. Humans decide which games count (forfeits and administrative reversals follow the official result), which teams are excluded, the starting ratings of the out-of-state teams Florida teams played this season, and the 10-point starting adjustment for SSAA and independent teams.
- It does not know about injuries, weather or who is playing in a given week. It rates teams on results.
One case: Class 2A, Region 2
FPRI does not set the playoff field, but its regional rankings show what a published ranking looks like next to a real bracket. The actual Class 2A Region 2 bracket had eight teams, and Lakewood (4-6) was the No. 7 seed. Newberry (6-4) was not in the field.
In FPRI’s Region 2 ranking, Newberry is 7th (OVERALL 66.42) and Lakewood is 9th (59.61).
Newberry beat Cocoa 14-13 in Week 3, and FPRI still has Cocoa one spot higher, because Cocoa’s schedule was stronger (SOS 10.91 to 6.85). Both would be in the field. Every game behind each team’s rating is on its report page, one click from the rankings.
How FPRI would have done it
We built the 2026 playoff field from FPRI alone and set it next to the brackets the FHSAA released. The FHSAA seeded its brackets from MaxPreps rankings. FPRI’s version keeps district champions in the field, as the FHSAA’s does, and fills the rest of each eight-team region by FPRI Overall. We start with the Open Division, the top bracket, then go class by class.
The Open Division
The FHSAA’s first Open Division is eight teams in two pools. Six of the eight are the same in FPRI’s version. The FHSAA took Miami Central and Venice for the other two places, and FPRI took Carrollwood Day and Palmetto. FPRI’s Open is simply the eight highest-rated teams in the postseason by FPRI Overall. IMG Academy, 4th, is not in the FHSAA postseason.
| Team (class, record) | FHSAA seed | FPRI seed | FPRI Overall rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas Aquinas (5A, 10-0) | 1, Pool A | 1 | 1st |
| Columbus (6A, 9-1) | 2, Pool B | 2 | 2nd |
| West Boca Raton (5A, 9-1) | 3, Pool B | 4 | 5th |
| Chaminade-Madonna (2A, 8-2) | 4, Pool A | 3 | 3rd |
| Lakeland (5A, 9-1) | 5, Pool A | 8 | 9th |
| Miami Central (3A, 7-3) | 6, Pool B | Not in FPRI’s Open | 20th |
| Raines (3A, 10-0) | 7, Pool B | 5 | 6th |
| Venice (6A, 9-1) | 8, Pool A | Not in FPRI’s Open | 11th |
| Carrollwood Day (1A, 10-0) | Not in the Open (1A Region 3) | 6 | 7th |
| Palmetto (5A, 9-1) | Not in the Open (5A Region 3, No. 3 seed) | 7 | 8th |
The ranks are from the Week 11 rankings, which include IMG Academy and Miami Carol City. Three things stand out:
- The two teams left out are unbeaten or one loss. Carrollwood Day is 10-0 and Palmetto is 9-1. Venice, also 9-1, took a place instead, and Miami Central took another with three losses.
- Miami Central is the biggest gap. FPRI rates the Rockets 20th. The FHSAA seeded them sixth in the Open.
- Raines and Lakeland swap places. Raines went 10-0 and FPRI has it 5th in the Open, while the FHSAA seeded it seventh. Lakeland is 9-1, the FHSAA’s fifth seed and FPRI’s eighth.
These are two different judgments, and each team is on the page with its record. What FPRI can add is that every game behind its ranks is public.
The case for Carrollwood Day and Palmetto
The FHSAA said it would fill the Open Division strictly from MaxPreps’ computer rankings at the end of the regular season, with no human decision involved. So the question is not who picked, but what the formula rewarded. Here is what FPRI sees for the four teams.
| Team | Record | FPRI Overall | Power | Schedule strength | Record vs expectation | Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollwood Day | 10-0 | 93.69 (7th) | 30.38 | 7.63 | +1.73 | None |
| Palmetto | 9-1 | 93.10 (8th) | 30.36 | 13.76 | +1.40 | Clearwater Central Catholic 28-24 (Week 1, away) |
| Venice | 9-1 | 90.17 (11th) | 28.01 | 9.19 | +1.27 | Raines 20-17 (away) |
| Miami Central | 7-3 | 87.29 (20th) | 27.35 | 15.45 | 0.00 | Buford (Ga.) 18-7, Columbus 28-3, Miami Carol City 27-10 |
Power is how many points better than an average Florida team we rate a team on the field. Schedule strength is the average Power of its opponents. Record vs expectation is the SOR described above: how far a team’s record beats what its schedule predicts.
Carrollwood Day is unbeaten and won by an average of 48 points. Its biggest test was a 28-14 road win at Cardinal Newman, now 18th in FPRI Overall. It also beat Trinity Christian 63-21 and Eau Gallie 41-7.
Palmetto lost only its opener, by four points at Clearwater Central Catholic, then won nine straight. The wins include Naples, Manatee, Sumner and Bishop Verot, and it beat Riverview of Sarasota by six. Venice also beat Riverview, on the road by nine.
Venice is the strongest of the two teams that FPRI left out. Its only loss was by three points at Raines, and it beat Lakeland 32-25. FPRI has it 11th overall, behind only FPRI’s Open field, IMG Academy and Columbia (10th, a 4A school).
Miami Central has the best argument on schedule, and FPRI gives it credit for that. Its 15.45 schedule strength, 15th toughest in the state, is the highest of the four, and it won 23-22 over Orange Lutheran (Calif.). But it lost three games, by 11, 25 and 17 points, so its record against that schedule comes out at exactly what was expected, which ranks 50th in the state. Carrollwood Day ranks 8th. That is why FPRI puts it 20th, about five points of Overall behind Lakeland in eighth.
Results between teams in the Open Division picture. These are the games where two of them played each other this season.
| Game | Result |
|---|---|
| St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Columbus | St. Thomas Aquinas won 31-24 |
| St. Thomas Aquinas at Chaminade-Madonna | St. Thomas Aquinas won 21-20 |
| Columbus at Miami Central | Columbus won 28-3 |
| Venice at Lakeland | Venice won 32-25 |
| Raines vs. Venice | Raines won 20-17 |
Carrollwood Day and Palmetto did not play any of the other Open candidates, and the four contested teams did not play each other. The one link between them is a common opponent: Palmetto and Venice both beat Riverview of Sarasota, Palmetto by six at home and Venice by nine on the road.
The honest counterpoint is that Carrollwood Day plays in 1A and has the weakest schedule of the four (101st toughest in the state, against 76th for Venice, 23rd for Palmetto and 15th for Miami Central), and a formula that leans hard on schedule strength could reasonably rank Miami Central higher. MaxPreps’ formula is not public, so we cannot say how it weighed these. What we can ask for is the MaxPreps top 12 as it stood when the field was set, with each team’s rating, so anyone can see how close the line was. FPRI publishes every input for every team on the same page.
Classes 1A to 6A and the Independent brackets
Below the Open Division, the two lists agree on 196 of 217 spots, or 90%.
| Bracket | Spots | Same team in both | Same seed in both | Seed within one |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 32 | 28 | 3 | 24 |
| 5A | 32 | 26 | 10 | 20 |
| 4A | 32 | 30 | 11 | 23 |
| 3A | 32 | 30 | 12 | 26 |
| 2A | 26 | 24 | 17 | 23 |
| 1A | 31 | 29 | 13 | 26 |
| Independent A | 16 | 15 | 9 | 13 |
| Independent B | 16 | 14 | 7 | 12 |
| All | 217 | 196 | 82 | 167 |
The two lists agree on who belongs far more often than on where each team is seeded. FPRI is a different method from MaxPreps, so a difference is not a mistake by either one, and we cannot see MaxPreps’ formula to say why it chose what it did. What we can do is show every place the lists split, with the records.
One team missing from every bracket. Miami Carol City, 12th in FPRI Overall, appears in no bracket. The FHSAA removed the Chiefs from postseason play for a fight during their regular-season game at Grayson (Ga.), so their absence is not an FPRI miss. The FPRI list leaves them out too.
Where the fields differ
This lists every team that is in one field and not the other, with its regular-season record. Twenty-six of the 28 brackets match completely or differ by one team.
| Bracket | In FPRI’s field, not the FHSAA’s | In the FHSAA’s field, not FPRI’s |
|---|---|---|
| 1A Region 2 | North Florida Educational (4-5) | Father Lopez (3-6) |
| 1A Region 3 | Moore Haven (4-6) | Carrollwood Day (10-0) |
| 2A Region 1 | Baldwin (4-6) | Freeport (5-5) |
| 2A Region 2 | Newberry (6-4) | Lakewood (4-6) |
| 3A Region 3 | Countryside (6-4) | Dunedin (4-6) |
| 3A Region 4 | Miami Central (7-3) | Miami Jackson (3-5) |
| Independent A South | Forest Hill (7-2) | Pembroke Pines Charter (5-5) |
| Independent B North | Trinity Prep (5-4) | The Masters Academy (3-7) |
| Independent B South | Pine Crest (7-3) | St. John Paul II (3-7) |
| 4A Region 1 | Yulee (6-4) | Lincoln (4-6) |
| 4A Region 3 | East Bay (7-3) | Estero (7-3) |
| 5A Region 1 | Forest (8-2) | Ponte Vedra (3-7) |
| 5A Region 2 | Mitchell (6-4), Lake Howell (6-4), Auburndale (6-4), Land O’ Lakes (6-4) | Sebring (6-4), Osceola (3-7), Lake Gibson (5-5), Bartow (6-4) |
| 5A Region 3 | Riverdale (8-2) | Palmetto (9-1) |
| 6A Region 1 | Flagler Palm Coast (8-2) | Spruce Creek (5-4) |
| 6A Region 3 | Venice (9-1), Steinbrenner (8-2) | Durant (5-5), Newsome (6-4) |
| 6A Region 4 | Palm Beach Lakes (8-2) | West Broward (3-7) |
Brackets not listed have the same eight teams in both: 1A Region 1, 1A Region 4, 2A Regions 3 and 4, 3A Regions 1 and 2, Independent A North, 4A Regions 2 and 4, 5A Region 4 and 6A Region 2.
Four of these differences come from the Open Division swaps. Carrollwood Day and Palmetto are in FPRI’s Open, so Moore Haven and Riverdale take their regional places. Venice and Miami Central are in the FHSAA’s Open, so Durant and Miami Jackson take theirs. The other 17 are real disagreements. In every one of them, the team FPRI picked has the higher FPRI Overall rating, which is why the lists split.
The widest gap is 5A Region 2, where four of the eight teams differ. FPRI’s four extra teams all went 6-4 and are rated between 61 and 66 in FPRI Overall. The FHSAA’s four range from 3-7 Osceola to 6-4 Sebring and Bartow, rated between 55 and 60. In 6A Region 1, 5A Region 1 and 6A Region 4, the FHSAA field includes a team that finished 3-7 or 5-4 while FPRI has an 8-2 team out.
Where the seeds differ
Of the 196 teams in both fields, 82 get the same seed, 167 land within one seed of each other, and 185 within two. The average gap is 0.8 of a seed. FPRI and the FHSAA agree on the No. 1 seed in 18 of the 28 brackets, and on 96 of the 112 top-four places.
A few teams are far apart. These are the gaps of three seeds or more, all within a single region.
| Team | Bracket | FHSAA seed | FPRI seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jupiter | 6A Region 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Oasis | Independent A South | 8 | 4 |
| Bradford | 2A Region 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Melbourne | 5A Region 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Royal Palm Beach | 5A Region 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Atlantic (Delray Beach) | 4A Region 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Wiregrass Ranch | 5A Region 2 | 8 | 5 |
| McArthur | 4A Region 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Lake Mary | 6A Region 1 | 5 | 8 |
| South Dade | 6A Region 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Bartram Trail | 5A Region 1 | 5 | 8 |
Seeding matters more than the field, because it decides who a team plays first and who gets the home game. The 6A brackets agree least: only three of 32 spots get the same seed in both. The 2A brackets agree most, with 17 of 26.
None of this says FPRI is right and the FHSAA wrong. The FHSAA’s brackets follow its own qualifying rules and MaxPreps’ rankings, and FPRI follows its own published math. The difference is that every FPRI number in this section can be checked game by game on the rankings page, and every input is public.
The same test on the SSAA
The FHSAA is not the only governing body in Florida football. The Sunshine State Athletic Association runs its own playoffs, and it publishes final rankings in five lists: Atlantic North, Atlantic South, 11-Man North, 11-Man South and 8-Man. We ran the same comparison. This section looks only at the results of the two lists, not at how the SSAA builds its own, and it uses FPRI’s ratings through Week 10.
| List | Teams compared | Within two spots | Top eight in common | Average gap (spots) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic South | 20 | 17 | 8 | 1.4 |
| 11-Man North | 17 | 15 | 7 | 1.2 |
| 11-Man South | 17 | 14 | 7 | 1.3 |
| 8-Man | 23 | 13 | 6 | 2.6 |
| Atlantic North | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2.5 |
Both lists are re-ranked among the teams they share. Inlet Grove, in the SSAA’s 11-Man South list, is not in FPRI’s data and is left out.
Where the two lists agree, they agree closely. In Atlantic South, all eight of the SSAA’s top teams are also FPRI’s top eight. In the 11-Man North and South lists, seven of eight match.
The widest split is in Atlantic North. The SSAA ranks Fernandina Beach (3-7) fifth, Union County (5-5) sixth and Lafayette (4-6) seventh. Among the same 19 teams, FPRI has them 11th, 13th and 14th. In FPRI’s full SSAA Atlantic list of 39 teams, they rank 20th, 22nd and 23rd. FPRI has Branford (6-4) seventh where the SSAA has it 13th, Trenton (7-2) fourth where the SSAA has it eighth, and Liberty County (6-2) fifth where the SSAA has it ninth. A record does not show strength of schedule, so these records alone do not settle which list is closer, but the gap is the largest in any of the five lists.
In 8-Man, the largest gaps are Bradenton Christian (7-3), which the SSAA ranks ninth and FPRI fourth; SLAM Tampa (7-2), seventh and third; and Shorecrest Prep (6-3), fourth and eighth.
One note on the 8-Man bracket: the SSAA gives its division winners the first five seeds, so the bracket seeds are not the same as the final ranking order. This comparison uses the final ranking.
As with the FHSAA, a difference is not a mistake by either list. Playoff results are the test of which ordering predicted better, and we will add them here as they come in.
Our alternative to MaxPreps
- Every setting is public. The full formula and every value are published above, so anyone can recompute a rating.
- Ratings and results are posted every week, with the game results behind them.
- Every forecast is graded in public, including the misses.
- The rankings are free for fans, coaches, schools and anyone else who wants a number they can check.
When a coach asks why a team is ranked where it is, the answer is a published rule, not a number nobody can open.
Check our work
The full rankings and every forecast are on FloridaHSFootball.com. Every number in this story can be recomputed from the posted game results and the settings above.
On the rankings, click a team name for its team page, or anywhere else on its row for its full FPRI report.
Find any team, any week. The rankings page has drop-down menus for year, week, division (11-Man or 8-Man), view, classification and FHSAA region, plus a search box for team names. Set Class 2A and Region 2, for example, and you get the same regional ranking used in the Region 2 example above.
Weekly, on a set date. FPRI is published once a week, on a date we set so that make-up games from the previous week are included. That also gives us time to check that every game has the correct score before the rankings go out.
How scores are verified. Game scores come from several sources: coaches, media, and reputable fans whose reports we confirm independently. We control every score on our end, so when one is wrong we can correct it right away.
Look back any week. Every week’s rankings stay on the site, so a team’s rating can be followed from one week to the next.
The Florida Coaches Coalition asked MaxPreps for six things. Here is where FPRI stands on each.
| What the coalition asked for | FPRI today |
|---|---|
| The complete formula and the weight of each factor | Published in full, with every setting |
| How strength of schedule is calculated | Published: the average POWER of the opponents played |
| What data is collected and how it is verified | Game results are posted with every rating, and scores are verified as described above |
| What can make a team drop after a win or climb during a bye | It can happen in FPRI too, because all teams are rated together. Every move can be traced on the team’s report page |
| How public and private schools, geography and similar factors are handled | Public or private status and geography are not used. The one exception is the 10-point starting adjustment for SSAA and independent programs, described above. After that, results drive every rating |
| Independent testing of the formula | Not yet done. Every setting is published, so anyone can test it |
How the brackets would have looked like on FPRI
Here is how the brackets would have looke like for both the FHSAA and SSAA had the FPRI had been used instead.
FHSAA
OPEN DIVISION
POOL A
No. 1 St. Thomas Aquinas (5A) (10-0) (District 5A-15 winner)
No. 4 West Boca Raton (5A) (9-1) (District 5A-13 winner)
No. 5 Raines (3A) (10-0) (District 3A-3 winner)
No. 8 Lakeland (5A) (9-1) (District 5A-6 winner)
POOL B
No. 2 Columbus (6A) (9-1) (District 6A-16 winner)
No. 3 Chaminade-Madonna (2A) (8-2) (District 2A-7 winner)
No. 6 Carrollwood Day (1A) (10-0) (District 1A-8 winner)
No. 7 Palmetto (5A) (9-1) (District 5A-10 winner)
CLASS 6A
REGION 1
No. 1 DeLand* (9-1)
No. 2 Seminole (Sanford)* (10-0)
No. 3 Creekside* (8-2)
No. 4 Mainland (5-4)
No. 5 Winter Park* (5-5)
No. 6 Flagler Palm Coast (8-2)
No. 7 Lake Brantley (5-5)
No. 8 Lake Mary (2-8)
FIRST TWO OUT: Spruce Creek (5-4); Hagerty (6-4)
REGION 2
No. 1 Vero Beach* (9-1)
No. 2 Lake Nona* (9-1)
No. 3 West Orange (9-1)
No. 4 Edgewater* (6-4)
No. 5 East Ridge* (8-2)
No. 6 Dr. Phillips (5-5)
No. 7 Fort Pierce Central (6-3)
No. 8 Ocoee (5-5)
FIRST TWO OUT: St. Cloud (6-4); Treasure Coast (5-4)
REGION 3
No. 1 Venice* (9-1)
No. 2 Riverview (Sarasota) (8-2)
No. 3 Alonso* (9-1)
No. 4 Lennard* (8-2)
No. 5 Plant City (8-2)
No. 6 Steinbrenner (8-2)
No. 7 Sarasota (7-3)
No. 8 Haines City* (7-3) (Ranked No. 11 in the region)
FIRST TWO OUT: Durant (5-5) (Ranked No. 8 in the region); Newsome (6-4) (Ranked No. 9 in the region)
REGION 4
No. 1 Miami Palmetto (8-2)
No. 2 Jupiter* (9-1)
No. 3 Cypress Bay* (10-0)
No. 4 Western (7-3)
No. 5 Palm Beach Lakes (8-2)
No. 6 Palm Beach Central (7-3)
No. 7 Spanish River* (5-4)
No. 8 South Dade (5-5)
FIRST TWO OUT: West Broward (3-7); Santaluces (5-4)
CLASS 5A
REGION 1
No. 1 Mandarin* (9-1)
No. 2 Buchholz* (9-1)
No. 3 Evans* (7-3)
No. 4 Nease (7-3)
No. 5 Pace* (7-2)
No. 6 Forest (8-2)
No. 7 Oakleaf (5-5)
No. 8 Bartram Trail (7-3)
FIRST TWO OUT: Fletcher (5-5); Ponte Vedra (3-7)
REGION 2
No. 1 Oviedo* (7-3)
No. 2 Gaither* (7-3)
No. 3 Melbourne (8-2)
No. 4 Mitchell (6-4)
No. 5 Wiregrass Ranch* (6-4)
No. 6 Lake Howell (6-4)
No. 7 Auburndale (6-4)
No. 8 Land O’ Lakes (6-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: Bartow (6-4); Sebring (6-4)
REGION 3
No. 1 Armwood* (9-1)
No. 2 Tampa Bay Tech (9-1)
No. 3 Royal Palm Beach* (9-1)
No. 4 Manatee (6-4)
No. 5 Sumner (6-4)
No. 6 Cape Coral* (8-2)
No. 7 Riverdale (8-2)
No. 8 Plant (5-5)
FIRST TWO OUT:
REGION 4
No. 1 Coconut Creek* (8-2)
No. 2 Archbishop McCarthy (4-6)
No. 3 Monarch (5-5)
No. 4 Miami Southridge (6-4)
No. 5 Piper (5-5)
No. 6 Mater Academy* (5-5)
No. 7 Deerfield Beach (6-4)
No. 8 Flanagan (1-9)
FIRST TWO OUT: Olympic Heights (5-5); Boyd Anderson (3-7)
CLASS 4A
REGION 1
No. 1 Columbia* (10-0)
No. 2 St. Augustine* (9-1)
No. 3 Mosley* (9-1)
No. 4 Ed White (8-2)
No. 5 Choctawhatchee* (7-2)
No. 6 Clay (8-2)
No. 7 Rickards (5-5)
No. 8 Yulee (6-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: Middleburg (6-4); Leon (7-3)
REGION 2
No. 1 Bishop Moore* (8-2)
No. 2 Lake Wales* (9-1)
No. 3 Vanguard* (8-2)
No. 4 Jones (7-3)
No. 5 Zephyrhills* (7-3)
No. 6 Lake Weir (8-2)
No. 7 River Ridge (8-2)
No. 8 New Smyrna Beach (6-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: Seabreeze (6-4); Springstead (5-4)
REGION 3
No. 1 Port Charlotte* (7-2)
No. 2 Jesuit* (8-1)
No. 3 Naples* (6-4)
No. 4 Dunbar (8-2)
No. 5 Clearwater* (9-1)
No. 6 South Fort Myers (5-5)
No. 7 Gulf Coast (8-2)
No. 8 East Bay (7-3)
FIRST TWO OUT: Estero (7-3); Hillsborough (7-3)
REGION 4
No. 1 American Heritage (Plantation)* (6-3)
No. 2 Atlantic (Delray Beach)* (7-3)
No. 3 Miami Northwestern* (5-5)
No. 4 Jensen Beach* (8-2)
No. 5 Miami Norland (4-6)
No. 6 McArthur (3-7)
No. 7 Blanche Ely (7-3)
No. 8 Miramar (5-5)
FIRST TWO OUT: American (5-5); North Miami (4-6)
CLASS 3A
REGION 1
No. 1 Godby (7-3)
No. 2 Wakulla* (8-2)
No. 3 Baker County (7-3)
No. 4 Bay (8-2)
No. 5 Bishop Kenny (6-4)
No. 6 South Walton (7-3)
No. 7 Pine Forest* (5-4)
No. 8 Palatka* (5-5) (Ranked No. 10 in the region)
FIRST TWO OUT: Suwannee (6-4); Menendez (6-4)
REGION 2
No. 1 Merritt Island* (10-0)
No. 2 The Villages* (10-0)
No. 3 Eau Gallie (6-4)
No. 4 Dunnellon* (9-1)
No. 5 Santa Fe (8-2)
No. 6 Titusville (6-4)
No. 7 South Sumter (6-4)
No. 8 Tenoroc* (6-4) (Ranked No. 13 in region)
FIRST TWO OUT: Astronaut (7-3); Eastside (3-7)
REGION 3
No. 1 Cardinal Mooney* (9-1)
No. 2 Nature Coast* (9-1)
No. 3 Braden River (8-1)
No. 4 Robinson* (8-2)
No. 5 Tarpon Springs* (8-2)
No. 6 Jefferson (4-6)
No. 7 Countryside (6-4)
No. 8 Gibbs (4-6)
FIRST TWO OUT: Bayshore (3-7); Southeast (2-7)
REGION 4
No. 1 Miami Central* (7-3)
No. 2 Cardinal Gibbons* (7-3)
No. 3 Dillard (6-4)
No. 4 Bishop Verot* (6-3)
No. 5 North Miami Beach (7-3)
No. 6 Glades Central* (4-5)
No. 7 Miami Springs (7-2)
No. 8 Key West (4-5)
FIRST TWO OUT: Miami Jackson (4-5); Boynton Beach (1-9)
CLASS 2A
REGION 1
No. 1 Bolles* (7-2)
No. 2 Pensacola Catholic* (8-1)
No. 3 Walton (7-2)
No. 4 Florida High* (8-2)
No. 5 Andrew Jackson (7-3)
No. 6 Gadsden County (3-6)
No. 7 Baldwin (4-6)
No. 8 Destin (5-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: Freeport (5-5); Rutherford (3-7)
REGION 2
No. 1 Clearwater Central Catholic* (8-2)
No. 2 The First Academy* (7-3)
No. 3 Bradford* (9-1)
No. 4 Berkeley Prep (7-2)
No. 5 Tampa Catholic (7-3)
No. 6 Cocoa (4-5)
No. 7 Newberry (6-4)
No. 8 Calvary Christian (Clearwater) (6-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: Lakewood (4-6), Boca Ciega (4-6)
REGION 3
No. 1 Cardinal Newman (7-3)
No. 2 Saint Andrew’s (6-4)
No. 3 Booker T. Washington (Miami) (1-8)
No. 4 Miami Edison (1-9)
REGION 4
No. 1 Immaculata-La Salle* (9-0)
No. 2 Miami Killian* (8-2)
No. 3 Ransom Everglades (9-1)
No. 4 Westminster Christian (8-2)
No. 5 Gulliver Prep (7-3)
No. 6 Somerset Charter (Silver Palms) (4-6)
CLASS 1A
REGION 1
No. 1 Blountstown* (9-1)
No. 2 Madison County* (5-5)
No. 3 Fort White (6-4)
No. 4 Holmes County (7-3)
No. 5 Baker (7-3)
No. 6 Taylor County (4-5)
No. 7 Marianna* (6-4)
No. 8 Chipley (5-5)
FIRST TWO OUT: Northview (5-5); FAMU DRS (4-6)
REGION 2
No. 1 Hawthorne* (10-0)
No. 2 Trinity Christian (Jacksonville)* (6-4)
No. 3 University Christian (7-3)
No. 4 Melbourne Central Catholic* (7-2)
No. 5 Wildwood (8-2)
No. 6 North Florida Educational (4-5)
No. 7 Williston (3-7)
No. 8 Chiefland (4-6)
FIRST TWO OUT: Father Lopez (4-6); Impact Christian (1-9)
REGION 3
No. 1 Lakeland Christian* (9-0-1)
No. 2 St. John Neumann* (7-3)
No. 3 St. Petersburg Catholic (6-4)
No. 4 Victory Christian (7-3)
No. 5 Community School (4-5)
No. 6 First Baptist (7-3)
No. 7 Zephyrhills Christian (5-5)
No. 8 Moore Haven (4-6)
FIRST TWO OUT: Northside Christian (1-9); Fort Meade (2-8)
REGION 4
No. 1 True North* (5-4)
No. 2 John Carroll* (6-3)
No. 3 Archbishop Carroll* (8-1)
No. 4 Pahokee (6-4)
No. 5 Benjamin (4-6)
No. 6 Palmer Trinity (4-6)
No. 7 Somerset Prep (2-8)
FHSAA IND. A
NORTH
No. 1 Windermere (7-3)
No. 2 Innovation (9-1)
No. 3 University (Orlando) (9-1)
No. 4 Atlantic (Port Orange) (7-3)
No. 5 Umatilla (6-4)
No. 6 Oak Ridge (5-5)
No. 7 Freedom (Orlando) (4-6)
No. 8 Pine Ridge (1-8)
FIRST TWO OUT: Colonial (3-7); Cypress Creek (Orlando) (2-8)
SOUTH
No. 1 Fort Lauderdale (9-1)
No. 2 Cooper City (8-2)
No. 3 South Broward (7-3)
No. 4 Oasis (8-1)
No. 5 Belen Jesuit (5-5)
No. 6 Forest Hill (7-2)
No. 7 Somerset Academy (Pembroke Pines) (2-8)
No. 8 Ida Baker (6-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: Pembroke Pines Charter (5-5); Hollywood Hills (4-6)
FHSAA IND. B
NORTH
No. 1 Jay (7-2)
No. 2 Mount Dora Christian (8-1)
No. 3 Hilliard (10-0)
No. 4 Oak Hall (6-3)
No. 5 Geneva (7-3)
No. 6 Providence (4-6)
No. 7 Bozeman (3-7)
No. 8 Trinity Prep (5-4)
FIRST TWO OUT: The Masters Academy (3-7); Central (Milton) (2-4)
SOUTH
No. 1 Holy Trinity (7-2)
No. 2 Santa Fe Catholic (8-2)
No. 3 Orangewood Christian (9-1)
No. 4 Canterbury (9-1)
No. 5 Central Florida Christian (7-2)
No. 6 Evangelical Christian (6-3)
No. 7 Foundation Academy (6-3)
No. 8 Pine Crest (7-3)
FIRST TWO OUT: Lake Highland Prep (4-5); St. John Paul II (Boca Raton) (3-7)
SSAA BRACKETS
(AFTER WEEK 10 RANKINGS)
11-MAN
NORTH
No. 1 Maclay (9-0)
No. 2 Christ’s Church Academy (9-1)
No. 3 Episcopal (10-0)
No. 4 Seffner Christian (9-1)
No. 5 Old Plank Christian (6-3)
No. 6 Aucilla Christian (5-5)
No. 7 St. Joseph (4-6)
No. 8 Cornerstone Classical (5-4)
SOUTH
No. 1 Monsignor Pace (6-3)
No. 2 Florida Christian (8-2)
No. 3 Out-of-Door (7-2)
No. 4 Westminster Academy (7-3)
No. 5 Jupiter Christian (7-3)
No. 6 NSU University School (3-7)
No. 7 Sarasota Christian (7-3)
No. 8 Boca Raton Christian (7-3)
11-MAN CONSOLATION
NORTH
No. 1 Duval Charter (4-5)
No. 2 Cambridge Christian (3-7)
No. 3 Seven Rivers Christian (4-6)
No. 4 Rocky Bayou Christian (0-8)
No. 5 Bishop Snyder (1-8)
No. 6 Harvest Community (3-7)
No. 7 First Coast Christian (1-8)
No. 8 Eagle’s View (0-10)
SOUTH
No. 1 Keswick Christian (5-3)
No. 2 Saint Stephen’s Episcopal (5-4)
No. 3 St. Edward’s (6-4)
No. 4 Oxbridge Academy (7-3)
No. 5 Indian Rocks Christian (3-7)
No. 6 Glades Day (3-7)
No. 7 Master’s Academy (Vero Beach) (2-8)
No. 8 Tradition Prep (1-8)
ATLANTIC
NORTH
No. 1 West Nassau (7-2-1)
No. 2 Cottondale (8-0)
No. 3 Paxon (8-2)
No. 4 Trenton (7-2)
No. 5 Liberty County (6-2)
No. 6 Franklin County (8-2)
No. 7 Branford (6-4)
No. 8 Bell (7-2)
SOUTH
No. 1 American Heritage (Delray Beach) (8-1-1)
No. 2 King’s Academy (10-0)
No. 3 Hardee (9-1)
No. 4 Satellite (10-0)
No. 5 Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale) (7-3)
No. 6 Lemon Bay (8-2)
No. 7 Space Coast (6-4)
No. 8 Frostproof (6-4)
ATLANTIC CONSOLATION
NORTH
No. 1 Dixie County (6-3)
No. 2 Stanton (8-2)
No. 3 Fernandina Beach (3-7)
No. 4 Interlachen (6-3)
No. 5 Union County (5-5)
No. 6 Lafayette (4-6)
No. 7 Sneads (2-6)
No. 8 Crescent City (2-7)
SOUTH
No. 1 Coral Shores (6-3)
No. 2 Lake Placid (6-4)
No. 3 North Broward Prep (4-6)
No. 4 Avon Park (5-5)
No. 5 Bayside (5-5)
No. 6 LaBelle (3-5)
No. 7 Cocoa Beach (6-4)
No. 8 Coral Springs Charter (4-6)
8-MAN
No. 1 St. Francis Catholic* (8-1)
No. 2 Merritt Island Christian* (10-0)
No. 3 SLAM Tampa* (7-2)
No. 4 Foundation Christian* (8-2)
No. 5 First Academy-Leesburg* (6-3)
No. 6 Bradenton Christian (7-3)
No. 7 Lakeside Christian (7-3)
No. 8 Real Life Christian (7-3)
No. 9 Shorecrest Prep (6-3)
No. 10 Calvary Chapel (6-3)
No. 11 Classical Academy (5-4)
No. 12 Countryside Christian (5-2)
No. 13 Geneva Classical (3-5)
No. 14 Hernando Christian (4-5)
No. 15 Florida Deaf & Blind (2-6)
No. 16 City of Life Christian (3-5)
















































































































































































































































































