[Logo courtesy of the FHSAA]

Four weeks are in the books for the 2021 Florida high school football season and the FHSAA has released their first look at the RPI rankings as we head into Week 5 of the season

As such this update provides the entire state a glimpse of what the potential playoff matchups could be looking like come the second week of November, but remember things change, as we still have seven weeks worth of games (including this week) to go and this is just a very early glimpse at things.

In Classes 5A-8A, district record was taken into consideration except on certain exceptions which are noted.

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For Class 5A, you will find a breakdown of RPI rankings for each team in every region and a projected seeding (including tiebreakers) based upon the guidelines as published by the FHSAA (click here to view), as well as quick thoughts about each region.

REGION 1

Rank School RPI OWP OOWP
1 Ed White 0.88333 1.00000 0.61111
2 West Florida 0.68056 0.44444 0.58333
3 Suwannee 0.66667 0.66667 0.66667
4 Wakulla 0.64444 0.55556 0.72222
5 Bishop Kenny 0.62813 0.25000 0.63542
6 Baker County 0.62500 0.45833 0.67361
7 Terry Parker 0.61667 0.58333 0.50000
8 Raines 0.58194 0.55556 0.51389
9 Ribault 0.55417 0.83333 0.58333
10 North Marion 0.52361 0.33333 0.57870
11 Yulee 0.51875 0.41667 0.65972
12 Clay 0.50694 0.27778 0.58796
13 Palatka 0.45417 0.33333 0.54167
14 Paxon 0.42500 0.50000 0.54167
15 Menendez 0.40625 0.20833 0.52778
16 Godby 0.36875 0.54167 0.59722
17 Arnold 0.34375 0.62500 0.41667
18 Eastside 0.25521 0.41667 0.36458
19 Pensacola 0.19896 0.12500 0.51736

PROJECTED DISTRICT CHAMPS
This is based on current district standings and taking the highest-rated team among the district standings if they have won district games. Should a district not have any district games played as of yet, the highest-rated team will be mythically slotted in as a district champion for projection purposes only. 

5A-1: West Florida – No. 1
5A-2: Ed White – No. 2
5A-3: Terry Parker – No. 3
5A-4: Menendez – No. 4

PROJECTED REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PAIRINGS

No. 8 Baker County vs. No. 1 West Florida
No. 5 Suwannee vs. No. 4 Menendez
No. 6 Wakulla vs. No. 3 Terry Parker
No. 7 Bishop Kenny vs. No. 2 Ed White

QUICK THOUGHTS: As we can see here, this is a very early look at things and with seven weeks of football to go, the rankings and the projections are very much going to change. We are definitely not done seeing changes here.

REGION 2

Rank School RPI OWP OOWP
1 Merritt Island 0.81458 0.75000 0.67361
2 Rockledge 0.79167 0.66667 0.69444
3 Satellite 0.73125 0.37500 0.83333
4 Palm Bay 0.60833 0.66667 0.47222
5 Leesburg 0.60278 0.16667 0.64815
6 Seabreeze 0.57188 0.79167 0.39931
7 Bayside 0.55833 0.50000 0.50000
8 Tavares 0.54667 0.33333 0.55833
9 Eustis 0.53958 0.41667 0.43750
10 Dunnellon 0.51250 0.66667 0.54167
11 Deltona 0.49063 0.41667 0.56597
12 Titusville 0.48333 1.00000 0.44444
13 Crystal River 0.46458 0.66667 0.47917
14 Lake Weir 0.42361 0.55556 0.37500
15 Bishop Moore 0.37639 0.77778 0.34722
16 Atlantic (Port Orange) 0.35417 0.41667 0.40278
17 Mount Dora 0.30556 0.61111 0.30556
18 Pine Ridge 0.27222 0.16667 0.32407
19 Citrus 0.25278 0.38889 0.38889
20 Horizon 0.22813 0.25000 0.46875
21 Lake Buena Vista 0.21133 0.31667 0.33500

PROJECTED DISTRICT CHAMPS
This is based on current district standings and taking the highest-rated team among the district standings if they have won district games. Should a district not have any district games played as of yet, the highest-rated team will be mythically slotted in as a district champion for projection purposes only. 

5A-5: Leesburg – No. 2
5A-6: Tavares – No. 4
5A-7: Seabreeze – No. 3
5A-8: Merritt Island – No. 1

PROJECTED REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PAIRINGS

No. 8 Bayside vs. No. 1 Merritt Island
No. 5 Rockledge vs. No. 4 Tavares
No. 6 Satellite vs. No. 3 Seabreeze
No. 7 Palm Bay vs. No. 2 Leesburg

QUICK THOUGHTS: What we are seeing here possibly with five teams coming out of District 5A-8 is very unlikely at this point, but that is what the standings are telling us after looking at the districts. However, expect this to change heavily, but also don’t be surprised if at least three teams from District 5A-8 keep showing up in the projected pairings.

REGION 3

Rank School RPI OWP OOWP
1 Nature Coast 0.76042 0.75000 0.49306
2 Zephyrhills 0.75833 0.66667 0.58333
3 Hardee 0.63958 0.62500 0.52778
4 Cypress Creek (Wesley Chapel) 0.63750 0.66667 0.56944
5 Hudson 0.59028 0.22222 0.54167
6 Wesley Chapel 0.57708 0.66667 0.56250
7 Clearwater 0.56771 0.41667 0.53125
8 Robinson 0.52917 0.83333 0.50000
9 Gibbs 0.51979 0.50000 0.56597
10 Sebring 0.50313 0.50000 0.51042
11 Chamberlain 0.46111 0.55556 0.50000
12 Port Charlotte 0.44306 0.44444 0.56944
13 Middleton 0.39896 0.66667 0.26042
14 Tarpon Springs 0.35208 0.08333 0.49306
15 Weeki Wachee 0.29375 0.66667 0.20139
16 Booker 0.28056 0.44444 0.41667
17 Dunedin 0.28021 0.41667 0.44792
18 Gulf 0.26250 0.33333 0.48611
19 Anclote 0.11111 0.11111 0.24074

PROJECTED DISTRICT CHAMPS
This is based on current district standings and taking the highest-rated team among the district standings if they have won district games. Should a district not have any district games played as of yet, the highest-rated team will be mythically slotted in as a district champion for projection purposes only. 

5A-9: Nature Coast – No. 1
5A-10: Clearwater – No. 3
5A-11: Robinson – No. 4
5A-12: Hardee – No. 2

PROJECTED REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PAIRINGS

No. 8 Wesley Chapel vs. No. 1 Nature Coast
No. 5 Zephyrhills vs. No. 4 Robinson
No. 6 Cypress Creek vs. No. 3 Clearwater
No. 7 Hudson vs. No. 2 Hardee

QUICK THOUGHTS: Again like region two, this is another region where things are very much likely to change in the coming weeks as things play out. With seven weeks of football left, we can’t see District 5A-9 taking five teams straight up into the playoffs.

REGION 4

Rank School RPI OWP OOWP
1 Miami Killian 0.79063 0.62500 0.73958
2 North Miami Beach 0.61528 0.55556 0.62500
3 American Heritage (Plantation) 0.57778 0.88889 0.50000
4 Miami Central 0.55167 0.58333 0.57500
5 Bonita Springs 0.50417 0.50000 0.51389
6 Stranahan 0.50313 0.41667 0.60764
7 Cypress Lake 0.50000 0.45833 0.54861
8 Boynton Beach 0.49375 0.27778 0.54398
9 Jensen Beach 0.47500 0.00000 0.41667
10 Estero 0.39167 0.20833 0.47917
11 Miami Jackson 0.35833 0.37500 0.46528
12 Miami Springs 0.35117 0.63333 0.43167
13 Key West 0.32639 0.22222 0.43982
14 LaBelle 0.29375 0.50000 0.39583
15 Island Coast 0.29028 0.38889 0.51389
16 Hialeah-Miami Lakes 0.27083 0.45833 0.36806
17 St. Brendan 0.21944 0.44444 0.21296
18 Mariner 0.16111 0.22222 0.27778

PROJECTED DISTRICT CHAMPS
This is based on current district standings and taking the highest-rated team among the district standings if they have won district games. Should a district not have any district games played as of yet, the highest-rated team will be mythically slotted in as a district champion for projection purposes only. 

5A-13: Bonita Springs – No. 4
5A-14: American Heritage (Plantation) – No. 3
5A-15: North Miami Beach – No. 2
5A-16: Miami Killian – No. 1

PROJECTED REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PAIRINGS

No. 8 Boynton Beach vs. No. 1 Miami Killian
No. 5 Miami Central vs. No. 4 Bonita Springs
No. 6 Stranahan vs. No. 3 American Heritage
No. 7 Cypress Lake vs. No. 2 North Miami Beach

QUICK THOUGHTS: It is crazy to think that Miami Central would be considered an at-large team at this conjecture, but that is what it is right now and crazy to think they are ranked No. 189 overall in the state is way out of line to what we know about them. This region will certainlyly look different by the time we get to November.