FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 3A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Thirty-two teams. Four regions. One step closer to the state championships at the AdventHealth Training Center in Tampa — The training home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Seminole Ridge (Westlake) returns as the defending Class 3A state champion and still owns the best FPRI profile in the classification. Chiles (Tallahassee) , last year’s runner-up, is back near the top of the board. Homestead and East Bay (Gibsonton) — both 2025 state semifinalists — are also positioned for another run.

On the surface, Class 3A has a defined top tier.

Underneath, there are problems everywhere.

The Florida Power Rankings Index shows a clear elite group, but the middle is packed with dangerous teams, uneven schedules, and matchups where the seed line does not tell the whole story.

That is where this round gets interesting.

CLASS 3A FPRI BOARD

At the top, there is separation.

Seminole Ridge (Westlake) (63.94) and Ponte Vedra (61.90) sit in a tier of their own. Seminole Ridge brings the strongest rating in Class 3A with a +397 point differential and the No. 7 SOS. Ponte Vedra is unbeaten at 17-0 with a +489 point differential and only 69 points allowed.

That is elite territory.

Behind them, Chiles (Tallahassee) (47.05) and East Bay (Gibsonton) (46.63) form the next layer. Both bring state-level credibility, strong scoring profiles, and schedules that have tested them enough to trust the numbers.

Then comes the dangerous cluster.

St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) (43.24) , Niceville (41.82) , Land O’Lakes (40.54), and Belleview (40.23) are close enough that matchups matter more than ranking order. Homestead (37.79) is also lurking with one of the strongest SOS marks in the class at No. 13.

Strength of schedule sharpens the picture.

Seminole Ridge (Westlake) , East Bay (Gibsonton) , Homestead , Pace, and Chiles (Tallahassee) have all been tested at a high level. Others, including Buchholz (Gainesville) and Gateway Charter (Fort Myers) , bring dominant records and huge point differentials, but against softer paths.

That does not make them fake.

It makes this round revealing.

CLASS 3A POWER 16 (FPRI)

Rank Team Record Rating SOS Rank 1 Seminole Ridge (Westlake) 15-2 63.94 7 2 Ponte Vedra 17-0 61.90 34 3 Chiles (Tallahassee) 14-2 47.05 31 4 East Bay (Gibsonton) 14-3 46.63 20 5 St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) 12-3 43.24 69 6 Niceville 15-2 41.82 146 7 Land O’Lakes 13-4 40.54 28 8 Belleview 14-3 40.23 117 9 Homestead 11-4 37.79 13 10 Pace 11-6 35.05 33 11 Bartram Trail (St. Johns) 16-2 35.03 160 12 Buchholz (Gainesville) 13-1 34.12 368 13 Oviedo 11-1 32.89 123 14 Gateway Charter (Fort Myers) 11-2 32.46 297 15 Springstead (Spring Hill) 13-4 32.32 95 16 Coconut Creek 13-3 28.17 128

THE GAMES TO WATCH

All games Wednesday, April 29

No. 5 Bartram Trail (St. Johns) (16-2) at No. 4 Oviedo (11-1), 5 PM

This is the closest projection on the Class 3A board.

Bartram Trail (St. Johns) enters with the higher FPRI rating, more games played, and one of the most productive passing attacks in the classification. Quarterback Kaila Pierce has thrown for 3,201 yards and 53 touchdowns, while Riley Abelon has been the clear engine of the receiving game with 111 catches for 1,338 yards and 21 touchdowns.

Oviedo counters with a cleaner record, an elite defensive profile, and only 46 points allowed across 12 games. Quarterback Reese Sanderson has thrown for 2,045 yards and 24 touchdowns, while Alyson Scharf has produced 695 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns.

The contrast in defense is what makes this fascinating. Bartram Trail has 32 interceptions, while Oviedo has 47 sacks and 24 interceptions. The model barely separates them, but Bartram Trail’s offensive volume gives it the smallest possible edge.

FPRI Projection: Bartram Trail (St. Johns) 23, Oviedo 22 Win Probability: Bartram Trail 50.5% | Oviedo 49.5% Forecast: Bartram Trail 1 over Oviedo

No. 7 Buchholz (Gainesville) (13-1) at No. 2 Land O’Lakes (13-4), 7 PM

This is record vs. schedule — but now the production on both sides makes the contrast even sharper.

Buchholz (Gainesville) has been dominant, and the raw numbers are loud. Quarterback Isabella Alexander has thrown for 3,420 yards and 50 touchdowns, while Taylor Booth has produced a massive 2,040 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns. The Bobcats are not just offense, either. Defensively, Buchholz has 73 sacks and 52 interceptions, with Jasmine Hardy posting 45 sacks and Booth collecting 23 interceptions.

Land O’Lakes counters with a more balanced profile and a stronger schedule. Quarterback Sophia Spiegel has thrown for 2,622 yards and 44 touchdowns while also rushing for 940 yards and 14 more scores. Kate Smith , Kaylynne Mace , Ryleigh Eaton , and Maxdyn Luedy give the Gators multiple scoring options, combining for 42 receiving touchdowns.

The defensive numbers are strong, too. Land O’Lakes has 47 sacks and 40 interceptions, led by Kate Johnson with 29 sacks and Smith with 16 interceptions.

The question is translation. Buchholz has the flashier record and eye-popping production, but its SOS rank sits at No. 368. Land O’Lakes has the stronger FPRI rating, a far tougher SOS at No. 28, and a profile the model trusts more against playoff-level competition.

FPRI Projection: Land O’Lakes 34, Buchholz (Gainesville) 26 Win Probability: Land O’Lakes 78.5% | Buchholz 21.5% Forecast: Land O’Lakes 8 over Buchholz

No. 6 South Fork (Stuart) (12-5) at No. 3 Martin County (Stuart) (14-2), 7 PM

This is the local toss-up hiding in plain sight — and a true rubber match.

South Fork (Stuart) has the more productive passing profile, led by quarterback Alyssa Inchierchiere , who has thrown for 2,074 yards and 35 touchdowns. Cadence Reed has been the top scoring threat with 654 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns, while Callie Kiess adds 704 yards and 12 scores. That firepower showed up in the district semifinal rematch, where South Fork flipped the script with a 13-0 win after being shut out 12-0 by Martin County back on March 25.

Martin County (Stuart) wins differently. The Tigers do not have the same passing volume, but they have been efficient, protected the football, and allowed only 61 points all season. Bri Williams has completed 69 of 73 passes with no interceptions, while also rushing for six touchdowns — a formula that worked in the first meeting and keeps this matchup grounded in control rather than explosiveness.

This is offense vs. control. South Fork has more ways to score, but Martin County’s defensive profile and home adjustment give the Tigers the slight edge in a one-possession projection.

FPRI Projection: Martin County (Stuart) 20, South Fork (Stuart) 18 Win Probability: Martin County 56.3% | South Fork 43.7% Forecast: Martin County 2 over South Fork

No. 5 Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) (11-6) at No. 4 Everglades (Miramar) (12-3), 7 PM

This is one of the best South Florida swing games in the bracket — and one that already came down to the wire earlier this season.

Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) has enough offensive production to make this uncomfortable. Freshman quarterback Amariya Pinkney has thrown for 1,934 yards and 33 touchdowns while adding 400 rushing yards. Taliyah Young , Jakira Dennis , Jakaila Smith , and Jimairah Homidas give the Cobras multiple receiving options, and that group was just enough in a 14-13 win over Everglades on February 20.

Defensively, Boyd Anderson has created pressure with 30 sacks, led by Cheyenna Bolton and Amanda Cedeno , and the Cobras have 21 interceptions as a team.

There are no public stats available for Everglades (Miramar), so this is more about profile than production. Everglades has the better record and defensive profile, and a slight FPRI edge after adjustment — even after coming up one point short in the first meeting.

Boyd Anderson has the playmakers to flip it. The model still leans Everglades because of steadier team performance and defensive consistency.

FPRI Projection: Everglades (Miramar) 21 Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) 18 Win Probability: Everglades 59.6% | Boyd Anderson 40.4% Forecast: Everglades 3 over Boyd Anderson

FULL REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PICKS

All games Wednesday, April 29

Region 1

No. 8 Nease (Ponte Vedra) (10-6) at No. 1 Ponte Vedra (17-0), 7:30 PM Nease has played a respectable schedule for year one, but Ponte Vedra is unbeaten with a +489 point differential and just 69 points allowed. The gap is not seed line — it is dominance, and that showed in the regular season when Ponte Vedra controlled this matchup in a 26-0 win on April 2.

FPRI Projection: Ponte Vedra 50, Nease (Ponte Vedra) 0 Win Probability: Ponte Vedra 100.0% | Nease 0.0% Forecast: Ponte Vedra 50 over Nease (Ponte Vedra)

No. 5 Bartram Trail (St. Johns) (16-2) at No. 4 Oviedo (11-1), 5 PM This is the closest game in Class 3A, according to the model. Bartram Trail (St. Johns) owns the slight rating edge, while Oviedo brings a defense that has allowed only 46 points.

FPRI Projection: Bartram Trail (St. Johns) 23, Oviedo 22 Win Probability: Bartram Trail 50.5% | Oviedo 49.5% Forecast: Bartram Trail 1 over Oviedo

No. 7 Lincoln (Tallahassee) (11-6) at No. 2 Chiles (Tallahassee) (14-2), 7 PM Lincoln has a solid profile, but Chiles is the defending state runner-up with a +300-point differential and a Top-31 SOS. That combination creates clear separation, especially considering Chiles has already beaten Lincoln twice — a 6-0 overtime win on February 26 and a decisive 26-0 result in the District 3A-2 Championship on April 22.

FPRI Projection: Chiles (Tallahassee) 37, Lincoln (Tallahassee) 6 Win Probability: Chiles 99.2% | Lincoln 0.8% Forecast: Chiles 31 over Lincoln

No. 6 Pace (11-6) at No. 3 Niceville (15-2), 7 PM CT Pace has been tested with a strong SOS rank of No. 33, but Niceville offers a cleaner profile with a +405-point differential. The model trusts Niceville’s scoring ceiling and defensive consistency, which have already shown up twice in this matchup with wins of 39-20 on March 26 and 20-0 in the District 3A-1 Championship on April 23.

FPRI Projection: Niceville 30, Pace 22 Win Probability: Niceville 79.4% | Pace 20.6% Forecast: Niceville 8 over Pace

Region 2

No. 8 Auburndale (13-3) at No. 1 Seminole Ridge (Westlake) (15-2), 7 PM Auburndale holds the record, but its SOS rank of No. 422 is a major red flag. Seminole Ridge has the No. 1 FPRI rating in Class 3A, the No. 7 SOS, and a +397 point differential.

FPRI Projection: Seminole Ridge (Westlake) 51, Auburndale 0 Win Probability: Seminole Ridge 100.0% | Auburndale 0.0% Forecast: Seminole Ridge 51 over Auburndale

No. 4 Springstead (Spring Hill) (13-4) at No. 5 Belleview (14-3), 7 PM Springstead has a strong rating and a better SOS profile, but Belleview has been more explosive, posting a +403-point differential. The model leans toward Belleview’s balance and scoring profile at home.

FPRI Projection: Belleview 32, Springstead (Spring Hill) 22 Win Probability: Belleview 82.1% | Springstead 17.9% Forecast: Belleview 10 over Springstead

No. 7 Buchholz (Gainesville) (13-1) at No. 2 Land O’Lakes (13-4), 7 PM Buchholz has dominant defensive numbers, allowing only 48 points, but its SOS rank of No. 368 raises the question. Land O’Lakes has been tested far more consistently and carries the stronger rating.

FPRI Projection: Land O’Lakes 34, Buchholz (Gainesville) 26 Win Probability: Land O’Lakes 78.5% | Buchholz 21.5% Forecast: Land O’Lakes 8 over Buchholz

No. 6 South Fork (Stuart) (12-5) at No. 3 Martin County (Stuart) (14-2), 7 PM This is one of the tightest games in the bracket. Martin County has the stronger defensive profile, allowing only 61 points, while South Fork has enough scoring balance to keep this within one possession.

FPRI Projection: Martin County (Stuart) 20, South Fork (Stuart) 18 Win Probability: Martin County 56.3% | South Fork 43.7% Forecast: Martin County 2 over South Fork

Region 3

No. 8 Mariner (Cape Coral) (9-5) at No. 1 East Bay (Gibsonton) (14-3), 7 PM Mariner owns a solid +240 point differential, but East Bay has played the stronger schedule and still posted a +371 differential. That is the difference between a good profile and a Tampa-level one.

FPRI Projection: East Bay (Gibsonton) 44, Mariner (Cape Coral) 10 Win Probability: East Bay 99.4% | Mariner 0.6% Forecast: East Bay 34 over Mariner

No. 4 Tampa Bay Tech (8-6) at No. 5 Manatee (Bradenton) (13-4), 7 PM Tampa Bay Tech has played the stronger schedule, but Manatee has been more consistent overall. The record gap matters less than the efficiency gap, and the model gives Manatee the edge.

FPRI Projection: Manatee (Bradenton) 19, Tampa Bay Tech 13 Win Probability: Manatee 73.1% | Tampa Bay Tech 26.9% Forecast: Manatee 6 over Tampa Bay Tech

No. 7 Riverdale (Fort Myers) (7-4) at No. 2 East Lake (Tarpon Springs) (10-5), 7 PM Riverdale has a winning record, but East Lake has a stronger rating, a stronger SOS, and a better defensive profile. That combination gives East Lake control.

FPRI Projection: East Lake (Tarpon Springs) 25, Riverdale (Fort Myers) 12 Win Probability: East Lake 87.8% | Riverdale 12.2% Forecast: East Lake 13 over Riverdale

No. 6 Parrish (12-5) at No. 3 Gateway Charter (Fort Myers) (11-2), 7 PM Parrish has the better SOS, but Gateway Charter has been statistically dominant, posting a +423-point differential and allowing only 42 points. Even with schedule concerns, that defensive ceiling is hard to ignore.

FPRI Projection: Gateway Charter (Fort Myers) 36, Parrish 17 Win Probability: Gateway Charter 95.1% | Parrish 4.9% Forecast: Gateway Charter 19 over Parrish

Region 4

No. 8 McArthur (Hollywood) (11-6) at No. 1 Homestead (11-4), 5 PM McArthur has the better record on paper, but Homestead owns the much stronger rating and a Top-13 SOS. The bracket seed matches the underlying profile.

FPRI Projection: Homestead 31, McArthur (Hollywood) 0 Win Probability: Homestead 99.1% | McArthur 0.9% Forecast: Homestead 31 over McArthur

No. 5 Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) (11-6) at No. 4 Everglades (Miramar) (12-3), 7 PM This is the Region 4 swing game. Everglades has the steadier defensive profile, while Boyd Anderson has enough offensive production and schedule strength to keep this tight.

FPRI Projection: Everglades (Miramar) 21, Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) 18 Win Probability: Everglades 59.6% | Boyd Anderson 40.4% Forecast: Everglades 3 over Boyd Anderson

No. 7 Nova (Davie) (11-7) at No. 2 St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) (12-3), 5 PM Nova has been competitive, but St. Thomas Aquinas has a +380-point differential and has allowed only 85 points. That is a hard defensive wall to climb, and one Nova just saw up close in a 31-13 loss to St. Thomas Aquinas in the District 3A-14 Championship on April 22.

FPRI Projection: St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) 34, Nova (Davie) 12 Win Probability: St. Thomas Aquinas 96.7% | Nova 3.3% Forecast: St. Thomas Aquinas 22 over Nova

No. 6 Miami Southridge (8-7) at No. 3 Coconut Creek (13-3), 5 PM Miami Southridge has played a strong schedule, but the offense has been limited to just 124 points. Coconut Creek has the stronger overall profile and enough defensive consistency to separate.

FPRI Projection: Coconut Creek 26, Miami Southridge 4 Win Probability: Coconut Creek 96.0% | Miami Southridge 4.0% Forecast: Coconut Creek 22 over Miami Southridge

FINAL TAKE

Class 3A has a clear top tier.

It also has a dangerous middle.

Seminole Ridge (Westlake) and Ponte Vedra appear to have the cleanest power profiles in the classification. Chiles (Tallahassee) , East Bay (Gibsonton) , St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) , and Niceville are close enough to make the next round feel heavy.

But the bracket can bend in the middle.

Bartram Trail (St. Johns) and Oviedo are almost even. South Fork (Stuart) and Martin County (Stuart) are a one-possession projection. Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) and Everglades (Miramar) have the feel of a game that could tilt late.

That is where Class 3A gets interesting.

The top is defined.

The path behind it is not.

And one result is enough to change the road to Tampa.

FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 3A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

The defending champ sits at No. 1, an unbeaten giant waits in Region 1, and the middle of Class 3A is where the bracket can break.

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FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 3A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

The defending champ sits at No. 1, an unbeaten giant waits in Region 1, and the middle of Class 3A is where the bracket can break.

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