The Class 5A race begins with 16 districts spread across four regions, and the preseason picture ranges from dominant favorites to several tightly packed races. Programs such as Lakeland, West Boca Raton, St. Thomas Aquinas and Miami Southridge open with commanding district advantages, while Districts 5A-2, 5A-8, 5A-10 and 5A-14 feature considerably less separation.
Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.
The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 5A state championship probability.
The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.
District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 5A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.
The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Lakeland, West Boca Raton, St. Thomas Aquinas and Miami Southridge begin with overwhelming advantages, while races such as Nease against Mandarin, Mitchell against Gaither, the four-team field in District 5A-10 and Coconut Creek against Piper project to be much tighter. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.
MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 5A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.
That distinction also applies to hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then seeds the regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. The official seeds and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.
These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.
The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 5A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.
Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 5A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.
District 5A-1
Pace holds a commanding position in a district that otherwise projects as a much tighter race. Its district championship probability sits more than 60 percentage points ahead of Niceville, extending the momentum of consecutive 10-2 seasons.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | 9-1 | 76.3% | 88.5% | 3.6% |
| Niceville | 8-2 | 13.6% | 38.9% | 0.9% |
| Tate (Cantonment) | 7-3 | 6.3% | 27.7% | 0.5% |
| Crestview | 6-4 | 3.8% | 22.3% | 0.3% |
| Navarre | 3-7 | 0.1% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
Pace is the clear projected favorite after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while Niceville leads the chase despite slipping to 6-5 last season. Tate’s 7-3 projection would represent a step back from its 10-4 finish but keeps it within the competitive middle alongside Crestview. Navarre faces the steepest climb after a 1-9 season in 2025.
Pace also owns the district’s strongest overall postseason position and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Niceville, Tate and Crestview each have playoff probabilities well above their district championship probabilities, leaving multiple postseason paths behind the favorite, though all three remain modest statewide title possibilities.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-1 in 2026?
- Pace (49%, 67 Votes)
- Niceville (32%, 44 Votes)
- Navarre (7%, 9 Votes)
- Crestview (6%, 8 Votes)
- Tate (6%, 8 Votes)
Total Voters: 136
District 5A-2
Nease holds the early edge, but this projects as one of the classification’s deeper district races. Mandarin sits fewer than 10 percentage points behind the favorite, while Ponte Vedra gives the district a third team with a substantial championship probability after reaching the 2025 state semifinals.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nease (Ponte Vedra) | 9-1 | 41.9% | 80.3% | 3.9% |
| Mandarin (Jacksonville) | 9-1 | 32.0% | 73.2% | 3.4% |
| Ponte Vedra | 8-2 | 19.0% | 60.4% | 2.4% |
| Beachside (St. Johns) | 8-2 | 6.1% | 39.2% | 1.1% |
| Fletcher (Neptune Beach) | 6-4 | 0.6% | 17.3% | 0.2% |
| Bartram Trail (St. Johns) | 5-5 | 0.3% | 14.1% | 0.1% |
Nease’s projection continues a strong two-year run that produced records of 10-1 and 9-3, but Mandarin is a credible challenger after finishing 11-2 in 2025. Ponte Vedra remains firmly involved despite the separation from the top two, while Beachside’s projected 8-2 record gives it a stronger profile than its district championship probability suggests. Fletcher and Bartram Trail face a much steeper climb in a field with four teams projected for at least eight wins.
Nease, Mandarin and Ponte Vedra each carry a strong postseason probability, and Beachside remains a realistic part of that broader race after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals. Nease owns the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability, but Mandarin and Ponte Vedra are close enough to give District 5A-2 three meaningful class-title possibilities rather than one isolated contender.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-2 in 2026?
- Mandarin (52%, 31 Votes)
- Nease (22%, 13 Votes)
- Ponte Vedra (13%, 8 Votes)
- Bartram Trail (5%, 3 Votes)
- Fletcher (5%, 3 Votes)
- Beachside (3%, 2 Votes)
Total Voters: 60
District 5A-3
Buchholz is the overwhelming projected favorite after five consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 2025 state semifinal appearance. Oakleaf is the only credible challenger, but the gap between the district’s top two is nearly 79 percentage points.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buchholz (Gainesville) | 9-1 | 89.4% | 99.0% | 5.9% |
| Oakleaf (Orange Park) | 8-2 | 10.5% | 59.9% | 2.6% |
| Matanzas (Palm Coast) | 5-5 | 0.1% | 10.3% | 0.1% |
| Forest (Ocala) | 4-6 | 0.0% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| West Port (Ocala) | 2-8 | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
Buchholz has a clear edge in a district with little projected uncertainty at the top. Oakleaf’s 8-2 projection continues the program’s recent winning form, but Matanzas, Forest and West Port face a substantial separation from the leading pair. Forest’s projected 4-6 finish would represent a step back from its 6-4 record in 2025, while West Port’s projection remains close to its recent results.
Buchholz has the district’s strongest postseason position and statewide 5A championship probability, although the class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Oakleaf remains a realistic postseason candidate after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals, while the remaining three teams sit well outside the district’s primary playoff picture.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-3 in 2026?
- Buchholz (73%, 47 Votes)
- Oakleaf (17%, 11 Votes)
- Forest (6%, 4 Votes)
- Matanzas (3%, 2 Votes)
- West Port (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 64
District 5A-4
Evans and South Lake form a clear two-team race, with Evans holding a little more than a 2-to-1 advantage in district championship probability. Both are projected at 8-2 after posting their strongest records of the past five seasons in 2025.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evans (Orlando) | 8-2 | 67.0% | 81.7% | 2.9% |
| South Lake (Groveland) | 8-2 | 32.8% | 56.4% | 1.6% |
| Wekiva (Apopka) | 3-7 | 0.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Lake Minneola | 2-8 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Evans is the projected favorite after improving from 3-7 in 2022 to 8-3 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. South Lake is the only substantial challenger, building on an 11-2 season that ended in the regional finals. A gap of more than 40 rating points separates the leading pair from Wekiva and Lake Minneola, leaving both with a steep climb despite modest rebound projections from 1-9 finishes.
Evans owns the district’s strongest playoff probability and statewide 5A championship probability. South Lake also has a realistic postseason path, with its playoff probability standing well above its district championship probability, but the model sees little postseason traction beyond the top two.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-4 in 2026?
- Evans (63%, 31 Votes)
- South Lake (29%, 14 Votes)
- Lake Minneola (4%, 2 Votes)
- Wekiva (4%, 2 Votes)
Total Voters: 49
District 5A-5
Oviedo owns a decisive advantage in a district with a tightly grouped set of challengers. Viera, Melbourne and Lake Howell are separated by fewer than six percentage points in district championship probability, but each sits more than 60 points behind the projected favorite.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 8-2 | 73.3% | 83.1% | 1.9% |
| Viera (Melbourne) | 6-4 | 11.9% | 28.4% | 0.3% |
| Melbourne | 5-5 | 7.0% | 21.3% | 0.2% |
| Lake Howell (Winter Park) | 5-5 | 6.0% | 19.7% | 0.1% |
| East River (Orlando) | 4-6 | 1.6% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Lyman (Longwood) | 2-8 | 0.2% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Oviedo is the clear projected favorite after three consecutive 8-3 seasons and a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Viera leads the pursuit, though its 6-4 projection would represent a step back from last season’s 7-5 regional semifinal run. Melbourne and Lake Howell form the next tier, while East River and Lyman face the district’s steepest climbs.
Oviedo also has the district’s strongest playoff probability and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Viera, Melbourne and Lake Howell each have a broader postseason path than their district championship probabilities suggest, but none reaches a 30% playoff probability, leaving the district’s postseason outlook heavily concentrated around Oviedo.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-5 in 2026?
- Oviedo (61%, 35 Votes)
- Viera (19%, 11 Votes)
- Lake Howell (9%, 5 Votes)
- East River (7%, 4 Votes)
- Melbourne (4%, 2 Votes)
- Lyman (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 57
District 5A-6
Lakeland is the dominant projected favorite after four consecutive 12-win seasons and a 2025 state runner-up finish. Osceola leads the pursuit, but the gap between the top two exceeds 90 percentage points in district championship probability.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeland | 9-1 | 95.0% | 99.0% | 5.7% |
| Osceola (Kissimmee) | 8-2 | 3.1% | 53.3% | 1.7% |
| Auburndale | 7-3 | 1.0% | 34.5% | 0.7% |
| Sebring | 7-3 | 0.7% | 31.1% | 0.6% |
| Lake Gibson (Lakeland) | 5-5 | 0.1% | 13.5% | 0.1% |
| Bartow | 5-5 | 0.1% | 13.1% | 0.1% |
Lakeland holds a clear edge over a competitive second tier. Osceola’s 8-2 projection represents a rebound from its 7-5 regional semifinal season, while Auburndale and Sebring remain closely grouped after both reached the 2025 postseason. Lake Gibson and Bartow face the steepest climb, though each is projected to improve from a losing record.
Lakeland owns the district’s strongest postseason position and statewide 5A championship probability, although its class-title figure reflects only the traditional classification path. Osceola has a realistic postseason route despite its limited district championship probability, while Auburndale and Sebring remain near the broader playoff conversation. The district’s statewide title outlook is otherwise concentrated almost entirely around Lakeland.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-6 in 2026?
- Auburndale (69%, 121 Votes)
- Lakeland (22%, 38 Votes)
- Osceola (5%, 8 Votes)
- Lake Gibson (3%, 5 Votes)
- Bartow (1%, 2 Votes)
- Sebring (1%, 2 Votes)
Total Voters: 176
District 5A-7
Wiregrass Ranch holds a commanding advantage over a district otherwise defined by a compressed middle tier. Wesley Chapel and Land O Lakes are separated by fewer than two percentage points in district championship probability, but both sit more than 70 points behind the projected favorite.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiregrass Ranch (Wesley Chapel) | 8-2 | 80.5% | 88.0% | 2.2% |
| Wesley Chapel | 5-5 | 8.9% | 24.5% | 0.2% |
| Land O Lakes | 6-4 | 7.5% | 22.4% | 0.2% |
| Wharton (Tampa) | 4-6 | 2.3% | 12.5% | 0.1% |
| Sunlake (Land O’Lakes) | 3-7 | 0.6% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Cypress Creek (Wesley Chapel) | 2-8 | 0.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
Wiregrass Ranch is the clear projected favorite, with its 8-2 projection representing a rebound from a 5-6 season that still produced a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Wesley Chapel also reached the regional quarterfinals last season and narrowly leads Land O Lakes in championship probability, although Land O Lakes owns the stronger projected record. Wharton, Sunlake and Cypress Creek face progressively steeper climbs.
Wiregrass Ranch carries the district’s strongest playoff probability and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Wesley Chapel and Land O Lakes have postseason probabilities well above their district championship chances, leaving both within the broader playoff conversation, while the remaining three teams sit below 13%.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-7 in 2026?
- Wiregrass Ranch (65%, 26 Votes)
- Wesley Chapel (15%, 6 Votes)
- Wharton (10%, 4 Votes)
- Cypress Creek (5%, 2 Votes)
- Land O Lakes (3%, 1 Votes)
- Sunlake (3%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 40
District 5A-8
Mitchell holds the projected edge, but Gaither keeps this from becoming a one-team race. Fewer than 15 percentage points separate the leading pair in district championship probability, while East Lake and Largo form a distinct second tier.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell (New Port Richey) | 9-1 | 53.3% | 86.6% | 3.6% |
| Gaither (Tampa) | 8-2 | 38.7% | 77.5% | 2.9% |
| East Lake (Tarpon Springs) | 7-3 | 5.8% | 35.3% | 0.7% |
| Largo | 6-4 | 2.3% | 23.9% | 0.3% |
| Sickles (Tampa) | 1-9 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
Mitchell is the projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons, including a 10-3 regional final run in 2025. Gaither is a credible challenger following a 10-2 regional semifinal season, while East Lake’s 7-3 projection largely maintains the progress behind last year’s 8-3 finish. Largo remains within the competitive middle, but Sickles faces a steep climb after three consecutive two-win-or-fewer seasons.
Mitchell and Gaither carry the district’s strongest postseason positions and are its two meaningful statewide 5A championship possibilities. East Lake’s playoff probability remains substantially stronger than its district championship probability after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while Largo retains a smaller postseason path following a regional quarterfinal appearance. Sickles sits well outside the primary playoff picture.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-8 in 2026?
- Gaither (63%, 27 Votes)
- Mitchell (19%, 8 Votes)
- Largo (9%, 4 Votes)
- East Lake (7%, 3 Votes)
- Sickles (2%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 43
District 5A-9
Armwood is the clear projected favorite, but Tampa Bay Tech gives the district a second nine-win projection and a credible challenger. The championship gap remains substantial, with Armwood holding more than four times Tampa Bay Tech’s probability.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armwood (Seffner) | 9-1 | 80.5% | 99.0% | 5.7% |
| Tampa Bay Tech | 9-1 | 18.3% | 69.3% | 2.9% |
| Plant (Tampa) | 7-3 | 0.9% | 23.3% | 0.3% |
| Spoto (Riverview) | 5-5 | 0.3% | 14.8% | 0.1% |
| Bloomingdale (Valrico) | 3-7 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Leto (Tampa) | 1-9 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Armwood’s projection extends a three-year run of double-digit-win seasons, including a 13-1 state semifinal finish in 2025. Tampa Bay Tech remains the primary challenger after four consecutive seasons with at least nine wins, while Plant’s 7-3 projection represents a rebound from last year’s 5-6 regional quarterfinal season. Spoto occupies the middle, with Bloomingdale and Leto facing the steepest climbs.
Armwood carries the district’s strongest overall postseason position and statewide 5A championship probability, although its class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Tampa Bay Tech also has a strong playoff probability after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while Plant retains a smaller postseason path despite its limited district championship probability. The remaining three teams sit outside the district’s primary playoff picture.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-9 in 2026?
- Armwood (66%, 27 Votes)
- Tampa Bay Tech (15%, 6 Votes)
- Plant (10%, 4 Votes)
- Bloomingdale (5%, 2 Votes)
- Spoto (5%, 2 Votes)
- Leto (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 41
District 5A-10
District 5A-10 projects as a four-team race without a dominant favorite. Manatee and Palmetto are separated by fewer than six percentage points in district championship probability, while Sumner and Parrish Community remain close enough to keep the field unsettled.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manatee (Bradenton) | 8-2 | 38.0% | 70.8% | 2.6% |
| Palmetto | 8-2 | 32.3% | 66.2% | 2.3% |
| Sumner (Riverview) | 8-2 | 17.3% | 50.8% | 1.5% |
| Parrish Community | 8-2 | 12.4% | 44.1% | 1.1% |
Manatee holds a narrow projected edge despite a 6-7 season that ended in the 2025 regional finals. Palmetto is the closest challenger after finishing 10-2 and reaching the regional semifinals, while Sumner’s recent 10-3 regional final run supports its place within the district’s leading group. Parrish Community has the smallest championship probability, but its 8-2 projection continues a two-year stretch that produced records of 9-2.
All four teams carry realistic postseason probabilities, with Manatee and Palmetto holding the strongest positions. Sumner and Parrish Community also have playoff probabilities considerably higher than their district championship figures, underscoring the depth of the field. Manatee owns the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability, but the narrow separation leaves several smaller class-title possibilities rather than one clear statewide contender.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-10 in 2026?
- Manatee (41%, 23 Votes)
- Palmetto (39%, 22 Votes)
- Sumner (13%, 7 Votes)
- Parrish Community (7%, 4 Votes)
Total Voters: 56
District 5A-11
Riverdale holds a clear projected edge, but Cape Coral and Immokalee give the district two credible challengers. The leading three programs all reached at least the regional semifinals in 2025, adding recent postseason weight to the race.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riverdale (Fort Myers) | 8-2 | 62.2% | 79.9% | 2.6% |
| Cape Coral | 7-3 | 19.0% | 44.2% | 1.0% |
| Immokalee | 7-3 | 16.1% | 40.8% | 0.8% |
| Charlotte (Punta Gorda) | 5-5 | 1.8% | 15.6% | 0.1% |
| North Fort Myers | 4-6 | 0.9% | 11.8% | 0.1% |
| East Lee County (Lehigh Acres) | 2-8 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
Riverdale is the projected favorite after improving from 2-8 in 2023 to 10-3 and 12-2 over the past two seasons, with last year’s run ending in the state semifinals. Cape Coral and Immokalee are closely matched behind it after both reached the 2025 regional semifinals. Charlotte and North Fort Myers face a sizable gap from the leading group, while East Lee County has the steepest climb after an 0-10 season.
Riverdale owns the district’s strongest playoff probability and statewide 5A championship probability. Cape Coral and Immokalee remain realistic postseason possibilities despite considerably smaller district championship probabilities, while Charlotte and North Fort Myers hold more limited paths after regional quarterfinal appearances last season. East Lee County sits outside the district’s primary playoff picture.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-11 in 2026?
- Cape Coral (29%, 16 Votes)
- Riverdale (24%, 13 Votes)
- Immokalee (22%, 12 Votes)
- Charlotte (13%, 7 Votes)
- North Fort Myers (13%, 7 Votes)
- East Lee County (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 55
District 5A-12
Martin County holds a clear advantage in a district with a compressed group of challengers. Royal Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens are separated by fewer than seven percentage points in district championship probability, but both sit more than 50 points behind the projected favorite.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin County (Stuart) | 7-3 | 68.1% | 77.1% | 1.5% |
| Royal Palm Beach | 6-4 | 17.7% | 32.4% | 0.4% |
| Palm Beach Gardens | 5-5 | 11.3% | 24.9% | 0.2% |
| Seminole Ridge (Westlake) | 4-6 | 1.7% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| South Fork (Stuart) | 3-7 | 0.8% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Dwyer (Palm Beach Gardens) | 2-8 | 0.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
Martin County is the projected favorite after improving from 5-4 in 2023 to 6-4 and 8-3 over the past two seasons, with its 2025 run ending in the regional quarterfinals. Royal Palm Beach is the primary challenger following consecutive winning seasons, while Palm Beach Gardens’ 5-5 projection would improve on last year’s 5-7 finish. Seminole Ridge, South Fork and Dwyer face steeper climbs, though Dwyer’s projection represents a rebound from an 0-10 season.
Martin County carries the district’s strongest playoff probability and its only notable statewide 5A championship probability. Royal Palm Beach and Palm Beach Gardens have postseason probabilities meaningfully higher than their district championship figures after both finished as regional finalists in the 2025 consolation bracket. The remaining three teams sit below a 10% playoff probability.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-12 in 2026?
- Palm Beach Gardens (38%, 40 Votes)
- Martin County (37%, 39 Votes)
- South Fork (12%, 13 Votes)
- Royal Palm Beach (8%, 8 Votes)
- Dwyer (3%, 3 Votes)
- Seminole Ridge (2%, 2 Votes)
Total Voters: 105
District 5A-13
West Boca Raton is the overwhelming projected favorite after winning 28 games and a state championship across the past two seasons. Monarch is the clear second choice, but the district championship gap approaches 98 percentage points.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Boca Raton | 9-1 | 98.9% | 99.0% | 5.6% |
| Monarch (Coconut Creek) | 7-3 | 1.0% | 65.7% | 1.5% |
| Deerfield Beach | 2-8 | 0.0% | 15.7% | 0.0% |
| Olympic Heights (Boca Raton) | 2-8 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
West Boca Raton holds a decisive edge after following a 15-0 season in 2024 with a 13-2 state championship run in 2025. Monarch remains the primary challenger after reaching last year’s regional semifinals, but its 7-3 projection leaves substantial separation from the favorite. Deerfield Beach faces another difficult outlook after four consecutive losing seasons, while Olympic Heights’ projection represents a step back from its 5-4 finish in 2025.
West Boca Raton carries a near-certain postseason probability and the district’s strongest statewide 5A championship probability, though the class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason position. Monarch also has a realistic postseason path despite its limited district championship probability. Deerfield Beach and Olympic Heights remain outside the district’s primary playoff picture.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-13 in 2026?
- West Boca Raton (86%, 30 Votes)
- Monarch (9%, 3 Votes)
- Deerfield Beach (6%, 2 Votes)
- Olympic Heights (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 35
District 5A-14
Coconut Creek and Piper project as an almost even two-team race. Fewer than six percentage points separate them in district championship probability, while Boyd Anderson sits far behind the leading pair.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut Creek | 7-3 | 52.8% | 79.7% | 1.5% |
| Piper (Sunrise) | 7-3 | 47.0% | 76.3% | 1.4% |
| Boyd Anderson (Lauderdale Lakes) | 2-8 | 0.2% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
Coconut Creek holds the narrow projected edge after rebounding from 4-6 in 2024 to 9-3 and a regional semifinal appearance last season. Piper reached the same postseason round during a 7-5 season and remains nearly level with the favorite across the projection. Boyd Anderson faces a steep climb, though its 2-8 projection would represent modest improvement from an 0-9 finish.
Coconut Creek and Piper carry nearly identical postseason profiles, with both holding playoff probabilities above 75%. Coconut Creek has the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability by only one-tenth of a percentage point, leaving the district with two modest class-title possibilities rather than a clear statewide contender.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-14 in 2026?
- Coconut Creek (79%, 23 Votes)
- Boyd Anderson (10%, 3 Votes)
- Piper (10%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 29
District 5A-15
St. Thomas Aquinas is the overwhelming projected favorite after five consecutive seasons with at least 12 wins. Archbishop McCarthy and Flanagan both carry strong postseason profiles, but the district championship race is heavily tilted toward the defending state champion.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) | 9-1 | 95.0% | 99.0% | 4.7% |
| Archbishop McCarthy (Southwest Ranches) | 8-2 | 4.8% | 99.0% | 4.3% |
| Flanagan (Pembroke Pines) | 7-3 | 0.3% | 51.6% | 0.8% |
St. Thomas Aquinas holds a decisive edge after finishing 14-1 and winning the 2025 state championship. Archbishop McCarthy is the primary challenger following a 10-3 regional final run, continuing a sharp rise from one- and two-win seasons in 2021 and 2022. Flanagan’s 7-3 projection extends its recent improvement after records of 7-4 and 8-3 over the past two seasons.
St. Thomas Aquinas and Archbishop McCarthy both carry 99% playoff probabilities despite the wide separation in their district championship chances, while Flanagan remains a meaningful postseason possibility after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. St. Thomas Aquinas owns the district’s highest statewide 5A championship probability, narrowly ahead of Archbishop McCarthy. Those class-title figures reflect only the traditional 5A championship path and are narrower than the teams’ broader postseason positions.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-15 in 2026?
- St. Thomas Aquinas (93%, 26 Votes)
- Flanagan (7%, 2 Votes)
- Archbishop McCarthy (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 28
District 5A-16
Miami Southridge is the overwhelming projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons. Mater Academy is the only credible challenger, but the district championship gap exceeds 93 percentage points.
| School | Projected Record | District Championship Probability | Playoff Probability | 5A State Championship Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Southridge | 9-1 | 96.6% | 99.0% | 4.6% |
| Mater Academy (Hialeah Gardens) | 6-4 | 3.3% | 50.0% | 0.7% |
| Everglades (Miramar) | 3-7 | 0.1% | 17.6% | 0.0% |
Miami Southridge holds a decisive edge after following a 12-3 season in 2024 with an 11-2 regional final run in 2025. Mater Academy’s 6-4 projection represents a step back from last year’s 8-3 finish but leaves it clearly second in the district. Everglades faces the steepest climb after dropping from 6-4 in 2023 to 4-6 and 2-8 over the past two seasons.
Miami Southridge carries the district’s strongest playoff probability and statewide 5A championship probability. Mater Academy’s 50% playoff probability is substantially stronger than its district championship figure, preserving a realistic postseason path beyond the title race. Everglades remains a more limited postseason possibility.
VOTE
Who do you think will win District 5A-16 in 2026?
- Miami Southridge (85%, 22 Votes)
- Mater Academy (15%, 4 Votes)
- Everglades (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 26
![Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale) will playing in the SSAA Atlantic League in 2026. [Calvary Christian Athletics/Instagram]](https://i0.wp.com/floridahsfootball.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Countdown-To-Kickoff-No.-92-Calvary-Christian-Fort-Lauderdale-Featured.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1)
