COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: FPRI projections for every 2026 Class 6A district and playoff region

The Class 6A race begins with 16 districts spread across four regions, but the preseason picture is far from uniform. Some districts feature overwhelming favorites, several have credible two- or three-team races, and others may remain unsettled deep into the regular season.

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 6A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 6A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Lake Mary, Vero Beach, Venice and West Broward begin with commanding advantages in their districts, while races such as Districts 6A-2, 6A-4, 6A-10 and 6A-11 present considerably less separation. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 6A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then seeds the regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. The official seeds and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 6A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 6A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 6A-1

Flagler Palm Coast holds a clear advantage in a district with one primary challenger and a tightly packed middle. Its 53.3% championship probability is nearly double Creekside’s, while the remaining four teams each sit below 10%.

Flagler Palm Coast is the projected favorite, with the model calling for a rebound from its 3-7 finish in 2025. Creekside remains a credible challenger despite a second consecutive losing record, while Tocoi Creek and First Coast form the next tier with identical 5-5 projections. Atlantic Coast faces a steeper climb, and Sandalwood remains well behind the rest of the field after three consecutive seasons with one victory or fewer.

Flagler Palm Coast also owns the district’s strongest postseason position, but Creekside’s 44.5% playoff probability gives the district a realistic second path after its 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Tocoi Creek and First Coast sit closer to the playoff bubble, with First Coast’s outlook following a run to the FIT regional semifinals. Flagler Palm Coast carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, though the district produces one modest class-title possibility rather than a group of prominent contenders.

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District 6A-2

DeLand leads a three-team race in which every contender is projected to finish 8-2. The Bulldogs’ 52.8% district championship probability provides a clear edge, but Spruce Creek and Mainland combine to make this one of the classification’s more competitive district races.

DeLand is the projected favorite after a 12-1 season and regional final appearance in 2025. Spruce Creek, which has posted three consecutive winning seasons, is the primary challenger, while Mainland’s 17.6% probability keeps the 2025 regional finalist firmly in the race. University’s 5-5 projection represents a substantial rebound from last season’s 1-9 finish, but the championship gap remains steep.

All three projected leaders have meaningful postseason paths, with DeLand approaching near-universal playoff positioning and Spruce Creek and Mainland also holding strong probabilities. DeLand carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability at 5.0%, followed by Spruce Creek and Mainland, giving the district three legitimate class-title possibilities rather than a single isolated contender.

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District 6A-3

Lake Mary is the overwhelming projected favorite in a district with little uncertainty at the top. Its 97.5% district championship probability leaves Seminole as a distant challenger, despite the model projecting another strong season in Sanford.

Lake Mary’s projection continues a run that produced consecutive 12-3 seasons and the 2025 state championship. Seminole is projected to rebound sharply from last season’s 5-6 finish, but the separation in district championship probability remains substantial. Lake Brantley’s 5-5 projection would represent a slight step back from its 6-4 season, while Apopka remains well removed from the district race after consecutive losing records.

Lake Mary has the district’s strongest postseason position by a wide margin and carries its highest statewide 6A championship probability. Its class-title figure reflects only the traditional classification championship path and is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Seminole retains a realistic playoff path after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals, while Lake Brantley and Apopka sit on the outside edge of the postseason picture.

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District 6A-4

Boone holds the advantage in a competitive two-team race with Winter Park. The gap between their district championship probabilities is meaningful but not decisive, while Hagerty remains within range of disrupting the top pairing.

Boone is the projected favorite after improving from consecutive .500-or-worse seasons to a 10-2 record and regional semifinal appearance in 2025. Winter Park is the clear primary challenger, with the 7-3 projection extending a five-year run without a losing season. Hagerty occupies a distinct third tier, while Timber Creek faces the steepest climb after three consecutive losing records.

Boone and Winter Park both have strong postseason positions, and each advanced in the 2025 state playoffs. Hagerty’s playoff probability is considerably stronger than its district championship probability, giving the Huskies a plausible postseason path even without winning the district. Boone carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the figures point to several modest possibilities rather than one dominant class-title contender.

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District 6A-5

Lake Nona is the clear projected favorite, holding a district championship probability more than twice St. Cloud’s. St. Cloud remains a credible challenger, while the separation grows sharply beyond the top two.

Lake Nona’s projection follows consecutive winning seasons, including an 8-4 record and regional semifinal appearance in 2025. St. Cloud also went 8-3 and reached the regional quarterfinals, supporting its placement as the primary challenger. Tohopekaliga occupies the middle after three consecutive seasons at or just above .500, while Harmony and Gateway face steeper climbs despite improved records in 2025.

Lake Nona has the district’s strongest playoff position and highest statewide 6A championship probability. St. Cloud remains close to a coin-flip postseason path, while Tohopekaliga’s playoff probability is notably stronger than its district championship probability. Harmony and Gateway sit farther from the postseason picture, leaving the district with one modest statewide class-title contender and several smaller possibilities.

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District 6A-6

Edgewater leads a strong three-team race, but Dr. Phillips and West Orange keep the district from becoming a runaway. All three are projected for at least eight victories, with Olympia separated sharply from the leading group.

Edgewater is the projected favorite after five consecutive seasons with at least 10 victories, including a 12-1 record and regional final appearance in 2025. Dr. Phillips matches Edgewater’s 9-1 projection and remains the primary challenger after also reaching a regional final last season. West Orange follows consecutive 10-win seasons and stays within the competitive top tier, while Olympia faces a steep climb after back-to-back losing records.

Edgewater and Dr. Phillips share 99.0% playoff probabilities, with West Orange also holding a strong postseason position after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals. All three carry meaningful statewide 6A championship probabilities, led by Edgewater at 6.9%, giving the district several credible class-title possibilities. Their statewide class-title figures are narrower than their broader postseason outlooks.

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District 6A-7

Ocoee is the decisive projected favorite in a district with substantial separation between first place and the rest of the field. East Ridge is the nearest challenger, but its district championship probability trails Ocoee’s by nearly 70 percentage points.

Ocoee’s 6-4 projection would mark a rebound from consecutive nonwinning seasons and gives the Knights a clear edge in the district race. East Ridge is projected to step back from its 6-5 finish and regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025 but remains the primary alternative. Horizon and Celebration face steeper climbs, with Celebration projected to match its 1-9 record from last season.

Ocoee also holds the district’s strongest postseason position by a wide margin after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. East Ridge sits closer to the playoff bubble, while Horizon and Celebration have narrower paths. Ocoee carries the district’s only notable statewide 6A championship probability, though the figure remains modest at 1.3%.

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District 6A-8

Vero Beach is the overwhelming projected favorite after reaching the 2025 state championship game. Its 96.5% district championship probability leaves Fort Pierce Central as the only credible challenger, with a wide separation between the top two and the rest of the field.

Vero Beach’s projection continues a five-year run of winning seasons, highlighted by a 14-1 record and state runner-up finish in 2025. Fort Pierce Central follows a 10-2 season and regional semifinal appearance but remains a distant second in the district race. Centennial occupies a separate third tier, while Treasure Coast’s 3-7 projection would represent progress from its 0-9 finish last season.

Vero Beach owns the district’s strongest postseason position and highest statewide 6A championship probability. Its statewide class-title figure is narrower than its broader postseason outlook. Fort Pierce Central sits near the playoff bubble despite its recent postseason run, while Centennial and Treasure Coast face significantly smaller paths.

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District 6A-9

Ridge Community is the projected favorite in a district without a team expected to post a winning record. Its 58.8% district championship probability creates a clear advantage, while Winter Haven leads a compressed group competing for the primary challenger position.

Ridge Community’s 5-5 projection represents a modest improvement from its 5-6 finish and regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Winter Haven is the nearest challenger but is projected to step back from last season’s 6-5 record and regional quarterfinal appearance. Davenport and Poinciana are separated by one percentage point in the district race, while Haines City and George Jenkins face the steepest climbs.

Ridge Community owns the district’s strongest postseason position, with its playoff probability standing well above its district championship figure. Winter Haven remains within reach of the playoff picture, while Davenport and Poinciana hold smaller paths near the bubble. Ridge Community also carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the model identifies no major class-title contender.

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District 6A-10

Plant City holds the edge in a competitive district with Lennard positioned as the primary challenger. Durant and Newsome remain within the broader race, but the probabilities establish a distinct top two.

Plant City is the projected favorite after consecutive winning seasons and a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Lennard’s matching 7-3 projection continues a recent rise that produced records of 6-4 and 8-3 over the past two seasons. Durant is projected to rebound from a 5-6 finish, while Newsome’s 5-5 projection would also mark improvement from 2025. Riverview faces the steepest climb after reaching the regional quarterfinals last season.

Plant City owns the district’s strongest postseason position, but Lennard also has a realistic playoff path after its 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Durant sits closer to the playoff bubble, with its playoff probability substantially stronger than its district championship probability, while Newsome remains within range. Plant City carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, though the district presents several modest possibilities rather than a dominant class-title contender.

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District 6A-11

Alonso holds a narrow edge in the classification’s most balanced district race so far. Strawberry Crest sits just 5.5 percentage points behind, while Palm Harbor University remains firmly within range of the top two.

Alonso is the projected favorite, with the 6-4 forecast matching its 2025 record. Strawberry Crest has posted winning records in three of the past four seasons and stands as a credible challenger despite its 5-5 projection. Palm Harbor University adds a viable third possibility after finishing 6-5 in 2025, while Steinbrenner’s projection represents a rebound from last season’s 1-9 finish.

Alonso and Strawberry Crest each sit near the midpoint of the playoff picture, and Palm Harbor University retains a smaller but realistic path after reaching the 2025 FIT regional semifinals. Alonso carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the narrow separation across the top three points to several modest possibilities rather than one clear class-title contender.

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District 6A-12

Venice is the overwhelming projected favorite, with Riverview standing as the district’s only meaningful challenger. The gap between those two is substantial, and the remaining four teams each carry a district championship probability of 0.1% or lower.

Venice’s projection extends a five-year run of winning seasons that includes four appearances in the state semifinals or beyond, most recently a 9-4 finish and state semifinal appearance in 2025. Riverview is the clear second choice after going 9-2-1 and reaching the regional semifinals last season. Lakewood Ranch, Sarasota and Lehigh form a compressed middle tier, while North Port faces the steepest climb after a 1-9 season.

Venice and Riverview both hold strong postseason positions, while the rest of the district sits well below the playoff midpoint. Venice carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, followed by Riverview, giving the district two class-title possibilities with a clear separation between them and the remaining field. Their statewide class-title figures are narrower than their broader postseason outlooks.

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District 6A-13

Jupiter is the projected favorite, but Palm Beach Central and Dr. Joaquin Garcia give the district a credible three-team race. Jupiter’s 54.3% district championship probability establishes a clear edge without closing the door on the two leading challengers.

Jupiter’s projection extends a run of three consecutive seasons with at least nine victories, including a 10-1 finish in 2025. Palm Beach Central’s matching 8-2 projection represents a rebound from last season’s 6-5 record, while Dr. Joaquin Garcia remains firmly in the race after improving from 1-9 in 2023 to 11-3 and an FIT championship in 2025. Santaluces occupies a separate fourth tier, with the remaining three teams facing steep climbs.

Jupiter holds the strongest postseason position, while Palm Beach Central also has a solid playoff path after a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Dr. Joaquin Garcia sits almost exactly at the midpoint of the playoff picture, and Santaluces retains a smaller possibility after reaching the regional quarterfinals last season. Jupiter carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, with Palm Beach Central and Dr. Joaquin Garcia providing two additional but more modest class-title possibilities.

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District 6A-14

Spanish River is the clear projected favorite in a district with a compressed group behind it. Boca Raton and Nova lead the chase, but neither reaches a 20% district championship probability.

Spanish River’s 6-4 projection would extend a run of three consecutive winning seasons and gives it a substantial edge over the field. Boca Raton is the primary challenger after falling from 10-2 in 2024 to 5-5 last season, while Nova holds a similar position in the middle of the race. South Plantation, Park Vista and Coral Glades remain tightly grouped but face steeper championship paths.

Spanish River also owns the district’s strongest postseason position, with its playoff probability more than double that of every other team. Boca Raton and Nova hold smaller paths near the playoff bubble, while South Plantation’s outlook is more limited despite reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. Spanish River carries the district’s highest statewide 6A championship probability, but the model identifies no major class-title contender.

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District 6A-15

West Broward is the overwhelming projected favorite in an expanded six-team district. Western and Goleman lead the pursuit, but both sit more than 90 percentage points behind the defending state runner-up in district championship probability.

West Broward’s projection continues a steady rise from 4-5 in 2021 to 12-3 and a state runner-up finish in 2025. Western is projected to rebound from last season’s 4-7 record, while Goleman follows an 8-5 season and regional final appearance. Doral Academy and Cypress Bay share 5-5 projections, and Miami faces the steepest climb after going 0-9 in 2025.

West Broward holds the district’s strongest postseason position and highest statewide 6A championship probability by a wide margin. Western and Goleman sit below the playoff midpoint but remain the leading alternatives, while Doral Academy’s outlook follows a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Cypress Bay and Miami have considerably narrower postseason paths.

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District 6A-16

Miami Palmetto is the clear projected favorite, with Columbus positioned as the primary challenger. The Panthers hold a 50.9-point advantage in district championship probability, while South Dade leads the next tier.

Miami Palmetto’s projection follows an 11-3 season and state semifinal appearance in 2025, giving the Panthers a clear edge at the top. Columbus is projected to rebound sharply from last season’s 4-8 finish after four consecutive winning seasons from 2021 through 2024. South Dade remains a distant third, while Homestead’s 4-6 projection would represent improvement after consecutive losing seasons.

Miami Palmetto owns the district’s strongest postseason position and highest statewide 6A championship probability. Columbus sits near the midpoint of the playoff picture after reaching the 2025 regional semifinals, while South Dade’s playoff probability remains notably stronger than its district championship probability following a regional quarterfinal appearance. The remaining three teams face much narrower postseason paths.

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Projected Playoff Field