NORTHEAST FLORIDA POWER 15: Raines Stays No. 1 as Bolles, West Nassau and Trinity Christian Climb

The top of Northeast Florida remains stable after Week 3, but the rest of the Power 15 continues to change quickly.

Raines stays No. 1 after defeating Ed White 21-12, while St. Augustine remains No. 2 following a 34-8 victory over Menendez.

Bolles moves into the No. 3 position, while Oakleaf climbs into the top five after a 47-15 win over Fleming Island. West Nassau makes one of the biggest moves inside the rankings, jumping five positions to No. 6, and Trinity Christian rises three spots after beating Lincoln 47-28.

Farther down, Bartram Trail continues its early-season climb after defeating Bishop Kenny 27-24, while Bishop Kenny falls six positions. Creekside also drops out of the middle of the rankings following a loss to Fletcher, leaving only 0.04 rating points between No. 14 Christ’s Church Academy and No. 15 Creekside.

FPRI Methodology Update

Readers may notice more movement than usual in this week’s FPRI rankings.

After reviewing how the first three weeks of the 2026 season were being reflected in the model, several refinements were made to better balance preseason expectations with actual on-field results.

The changes were applied consistently across the entire statewide dataset and were not made to benefit or penalize individual teams.

The biggest update involves head-to-head results. FPRI now gives stronger recognition to statement wins over teams that entered a game rated significantly higher, but it does so in a controlled way. Rather than automatically transferring the defeated opponent’s full rating to the winner, the system moves the winning team part of the way toward that opponent’s pregame strength.

The model also now considers what happens after that win. A later loss to an elite or higher-rated opponent does not erase the value of an earlier statement victory, while a later loss to a significantly lower-rated opponent can reduce how much of that head-to-head boost remains.

Quality wins were also refined. Instead of using hard rating cutoffs that could create abrupt jumps in bonus value, the quality-win component now uses a smoother scale and gives more consideration to current-season performance when a team has already exceeded its preseason expectation.

A 35-point per-game margin-of-victory cap has also been added to the rating calculation. Actual scores and point differentials remain unchanged in the published statistics, but margins beyond 35 points no longer continue increasing a team’s rating. This helps prevent extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight in the overall formula.

Preseason ratings still remain part of FPRI early in the season because the sample size is small, but that influence continues to decline as more games are played and more 2026 data becomes available.

Because these refinements are being applied to games already played this season, some teams may make larger-than-normal moves in this week’s rankings. That movement is expected as the model adjusts to the stronger body of current-season evidence.

As the season progresses, FPRI should naturally become more stable while remaining responsive to meaningful wins, losses, opponent strength and head-to-head results.

Raines and St. Augustine Remain in Control

Raines continues to hold the No. 1 position after another victory against a Northeast Florida opponent.

The Vikings defeated Ed White 21-12 and remain atop the region with a 93.37 FPRI rating.

Raines has now opened the season with victories over Oakleaf, Baldwin and Ed White, giving the Vikings three current-season results against teams from within the region.

That matters because the FPRI is gradually relying less on preseason information and more on what teams have actually accomplished in 2026.

Raines also remains one of the highest-rated teams statewide, sitting No. 5 overall despite falling one position this week.

St. Augustine remains directly behind at No. 2 with an 84.71 rating.

The Yellow Jackets defeated Menendez 34-8 to remain unbeaten and climb three positions statewide to No. 9.

St. Augustine has now beaten Palatka, Nease and Menendez, and the Yellow Jackets continue to create separation between themselves and the rest of the Northeast Florida field.

The gap from No. 2 St. Augustine to No. 3 Bolles is 5.38 rating points.

Bolles Moves Into the Top Three

Bolles climbs one position from No. 4 to No. 3 with a 79.33 rating.

The Bulldogs did not have a Week 3 result in the attached schedule, but their overall profile strengthened enough relative to the rest of the region to move ahead of Mandarin.

Bolles also climbs five positions statewide to No. 25.

The Bulldogs’ 17.5 strength-of-schedule rating is one of the strongest among the Northeast Florida Power 15 and gives the FPRI significant opponent-strength information to work with.

Bolles opened the season with a narrow 20-19 loss to Columbia before beating Archbishop McCarthy 21-14 in Week 2.

Those two results continue to carry weight, particularly as Columbia has since strengthened its own profile with a victory over Madison County.

Bolles’ move into the top three is another example of how interconnected results can become more meaningful as the season progresses.

Mandarin Slips Despite Strong Opening Results

Mandarin moves one position from No. 3 to No. 4 with a 76.64 rating.

The Mustangs did not play in Week 3, leaving the FPRI with no additional current-season result to evaluate while several teams around them added new information.

Mandarin still owns convincing victories over McArthur and Atlantic Coast and has outscored those two opponents 88-21.

But the lack of a Week 3 result allows teams with fresh data to gain ground.

The Mustangs also fall nine positions statewide to No. 30.

Week 4 provides a significant opportunity for Mandarin to add a meaningful comparison when the Mustangs travel to Nease in a district matchup.

Oakleaf Climbs Into the Top Five

Oakleaf produces one of the strongest Week 3 performances among the teams near the top of the rankings.

The Knights defeated Fleming Island 47-15 and climb one position from No. 6 to No. 5 with a 72.22 rating.

The statewide movement is even larger.

Oakleaf rises 17 positions to No. 39 overall.

That climb gives the Knights a strong response after their season-opening loss to Raines and places them firmly inside the upper third of the Northeast Florida Power 15.

Oakleaf also carries a 6.4 strength-of-schedule figure, giving the FPRI additional context beyond the win-loss record.

The Knights have an open week in Week 4, meaning their position will depend largely on what the teams around them accomplish.

West Nassau Makes a Five-Spot Jump

West Nassau makes one of the biggest moves inside this week’s Power 15.

The Warriors climb five positions from No. 11 to No. 6 with a 68.29 rating.

West Nassau also jumps 29 positions statewide to No. 55.

The magnitude of the movement reflects both the updated methodology and the relative movement of teams around the Warriors.

West Nassau now sits only 3.93 points behind Oakleaf and more than one point ahead of Trinity Christian.

The Warriors’ rise also helps reshape the middle of the Power 15, where several teams are separated by increasingly small margins.

Week 4 gives West Nassau a road trip to Palm Bay to face Bayside.

Trinity Christian Continues Moving Up

Trinity Christian climbs three positions from No. 10 to No. 7 after defeating Lincoln 47-28.

The Conquerors now carry a 67.15 rating and rise 20 positions statewide to No. 60.

The victory adds another meaningful result to a résumé that already includes a 14-8 win over University Christian.

Trinity Christian’s 7.7 strength-of-schedule rating also gives the FPRI more context than record alone.

The Conquerors are now only 1.14 points behind West Nassau and 1.26 points ahead of Nease.

That makes Week 4 especially interesting.

Trinity Christian hosts American Heritage (Plantation), giving the Conquerors one of the strongest opportunities of any Northeast Florida team to add a major current-season data point.

Nease Gets Its First Win and Moves Up

Nease finally broke through after two close losses.

The Panthers defeated Mainland 35-33 and climb one position from No. 9 to No. 8 with a 65.89 rating.

Nease had opened the season with a 21-14 loss to Creekside and a 28-22 loss to St. Augustine.

Those defeats came by a combined 13 points.

The victory over Mainland therefore gives the FPRI a result that supports the idea that Nease’s 0-2 start was not necessarily indicative of a weak team.

The Panthers also climb 11 positions statewide to No. 66.

Only 0.04 points separate Nease from No. 9 Ed White.

That makes the middle of the rankings extremely tight heading into Week 4.

Ed White Falls One Spot After Loss to Raines

Ed White drops one position from No. 8 to No. 9 after losing 21-12 to No. 1 Raines.

The Commanders now carry a 65.85 rating.

The loss itself is not particularly damaging given the strength of the opponent.

Ed White’s 25.2 strength-of-schedule figure is the strongest among the Northeast Florida Power 15 and one of the strongest in the region overall.

That helps explain why the Commanders remain inside the top 10 despite the defeat.

The FPRI treats a competitive loss to a highly rated opponent differently from a loss against a much weaker team.

Ed White falls only one position regionally and five statewide.

The Commanders return in Week 4 with a district matchup against Riverside.

Beachside Falls Five Spots

Beachside experiences the largest drop inside the top 10.

The Barracudas fall five positions from No. 5 to No. 10 with a 65.82 rating.

Beachside did not have a Week 3 game before the Sunday cutoff used for these Sep. 6 rankings, leaving the Barracudas without another result while several teams around them strengthened their profiles. As such, the victory for the Barracudas over Tocoi Creek will reflect in the next rankings update to come on the Week of Sep. 13.

The movement demonstrates how quickly early-season rankings can change when some teams are accumulating current-season data at a faster rate than others.

Beachside’s schedule strength also remains low at this stage, which provides less upward pressure than the schedules of teams such as Ed White or Bolles.

Beachside has already begun Week 4, defeating Tocoi Creek 28-24 on Monday night.

That result will become part of the next FPRI update.

University Christian and Bartram Trail Continue Climbing

University Christian climbs two positions from No. 13 to No. 11 with a 65.12 rating.

The Christians defeated Lecanto 62-14 and rise 37 positions statewide to No. 74.

Because FPRI now caps margin of victory at 35 points for rating purposes, the additional margin beyond that threshold does not continue increasing University Christian’s rating.

The actual score remains 62-14 in the published statistics, but the rating calculation limits how much an extreme blowout can influence the formula.

Bartram Trail continues its rapid rise as well.

The Bears defeated Bishop Kenny 27-24 and climb three positions from No. 15 to No. 12 with a 63.45 rating.

Bartram Trail has now opened the season with victories over Tocoi Creek, Middleburg and Bishop Kenny.

The Bears have moved from outside the Power 15 into the No. 12 position in only two ranking updates.

Their statewide movement is just as impressive, climbing 47 positions this week to No. 88.

Bishop Kenny Falls After Head-to-Head Loss

The other side of Bartram Trail’s rise belongs to Bishop Kenny.

The Crusaders fall six positions from No. 7 to No. 13 after losing 27-24 to the Bears.

Bishop Kenny now carries a 61.90 rating.

The movement is significant because the FPRI has direct head-to-head information between the two teams.

Bartram Trail did not need an indirect comparison to pass Bishop Kenny. The Bears defeated the Crusaders on the field.

Bishop Kenny also falls 41 positions statewide to No. 98.

Still, the Crusaders remain inside the Power 15 and get an immediate opportunity to strengthen their résumé in Week 4 when they travel to Bolles.

Christ’s Church Academy Enters the Power 15

Christ’s Church Academy climbs three positions from No. 17 to No. 14 following a 35-6 victory over Old Plank Christian.

The Eagles now carry a 58.00 rating and move 18 positions statewide to No. 131.

Their rise pushes them narrowly ahead of Creekside.

Only 0.04 rating points separate Christ’s Church Academy at No. 14 from Creekside at No. 15.

That makes the final two spots in the Power 15 essentially interchangeable entering Week 4.

Christ’s Church Academy travels to Duval Charter, giving the Eagles an opportunity to strengthen their hold on the ranking.

Creekside Holds the Final Power 15 Spot

Creekside falls three positions from No. 12 to No. 15 after losing 27-21 to Fletcher.

The Knights now carry a 57.96 rating.

The loss is particularly meaningful because Fletcher entered the game outside the Power 15 and now rises five positions regionally to No. 19.

Creekside’s 4.2 strength-of-schedule figure helps keep the Knights narrowly inside the rankings, but the margin is nearly nonexistent.

Paxon sits immediately outside at No. 16 with a 57.70 rating.

That means only 0.26 points separate No. 15 Creekside from No. 16 Paxon.

Creekside hosts Tocoi Creek in district play in Week 4.

The Chase Just Outside the Power 15

Paxon is the first team out at No. 16 with a 57.70 rating after defeating Williston 26-25.

The Golden Eagles climb four positions regionally and 28 positions statewide.

Episcopal sits No. 17 with a 57.46 rating following a 44-0 victory over KIPP Bold City.

Middleburg climbs one position to No. 18 after shutting out North Marion 35-0.

Fletcher makes one of the biggest jumps outside the Power 15, rising five positions to No. 19 after defeating Creekside 27-21.

The Senators also climb 50 positions statewide.

Yulee falls four spots to No. 20 despite defeating Fernandina Beach 39-19.

The cutoff remains extremely compressed.

Only 0.50 rating points separate No. 14 Christ’s Church Academy from No. 16 Paxon, and only 1.37 points separate No. 14 from No. 17 Episcopal.

That creates several obvious opportunities for movement in Week 4.

Week 4 Spotlight: Bishop Kenny Heads to Bolles

One of the most significant Week 4 games in Northeast Florida comes at Skinner-Barco Stadium, where No. 13 Bishop Kenny travels to face No. 3 Bolles.

The matchup carries implications at two very different portions of the Power 15.

Bolles is trying to strengthen its new position inside the top three, while Bishop Kenny is looking to rebound immediately after its loss to Bartram Trail.

A Bishop Kenny victory would give the Crusaders a major head-to-head result against one of the region’s highest-rated teams.

Bolles, meanwhile, can add another meaningful current-season victory to a profile already strengthened by a difficult early schedule.

Another major matchup comes when No. 4 Mandarin travels to No. 8 Nease in district play.

Mandarin returns after an open week, while Nease enters with momentum following its first victory of the season.

Raines opens district play on the road against Terry Parker, while St. Augustine travels to Middleburg.

Trinity Christian hosts American Heritage (Plantation) in one of the strongest non-district matchups involving a Northeast Florida team.

University Christian travels to Madison County, creating another significant cross-regional matchup.

Bartram Trail visits Fletcher in district play, giving the Bears a chance to continue their rise against a Senators team coming off its victory over Creekside.

Creekside hosts Tocoi Creek, while Beachside hosts Ponte Vedra after already opening Week 4 with its 28-24 win over Tocoi Creek on Monday.

Ed White travels to Riverside, Christ’s Church Academy visits Duval Charter, Episcopal hosts Westside, Fleming Island hosts Ridgeview and Paxon hosts Stanton.

West Nassau travels to Bayside, while Oakleaf has an open week.

The Top Two Stay Stable, but the Middle Is Being Rebuilt

Raines and St. Augustine remain the constants in Northeast Florida.

The Vikings and Yellow Jackets stay No. 1 and No. 2 for another week and continue adding victories to résumés that already separate them from much of the region.

The bigger story is everything happening behind them.

Bolles has moved into the top three, Oakleaf has climbed into the top five, West Nassau has jumped five positions and Trinity Christian has moved into the No. 7 spot.

Nease has started climbing after finally breaking through with a victory, while Bartram Trail continues one of the region’s strongest early-season rises after beating Bishop Kenny head-to-head.

At the same time, Beachside and Bishop Kenny have moved sharply downward, while Creekside is now holding onto the final Power 15 position by only 0.26 points over Paxon.

The middle of the rankings is also becoming more interconnected.

Bartram Trail owns direct victories over Middleburg and Bishop Kenny.

Oakleaf has added a convincing win over Fleming Island.

Nease has now paired close losses against Creekside and St. Augustine with a victory over Mainland.

Trinity Christian has beaten both University Christian and Lincoln.

Those connections give the FPRI more useful information each week and reduce the influence of preseason expectations.

Week 4 should add even more clarity.

Bolles and Bishop Kenny meet head-to-head, Mandarin visits Nease, Bartram Trail faces a Fletcher team coming off a significant win, and several district matchups begin creating direct comparisons that will matter later in the season.

The top of Northeast Florida remains stable.

Everything underneath it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict.

Explore the Complete Florida Power Rankings Index

The Northeast Florida Power 15 is part of FloridaHSFootball.com’s Enhanced Florida Power Rankings Index, which ranks all 587 football teams in Florida — 563 11-man teams and 24 8-man teams — while also powering the Florida Power 25, classification rankings and eight regional rankings throughout the season.

As more games are played, current performance and opponent strength will continue replacing preseason information within the ratings.

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