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Longtime Observer

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  1. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    It also needs to be pointed out that there is now a trend of families picking up and moving across the state, or to other states, to play football. The "legitimate move" question is thus answered in the affirmative! I can assure you Jaydyn Glasser, Zander Smith, Stacy Gage etc really have moved to Venice, Lakeland and Fort Lauderdale! The kids from California that now play for Miami Central really do live in Miami now! But, the effect of building super teams is definitely enhanced with those guys making the move. 
  2. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    I think all of the transferring is bad, as most everyone else does. But, I'm not sure that using the state or something like the FHSAA to regulate it is the answer. It needs to become cool to stick with the team you've been with all along. This feels like a "toothpaste is already out of the tube" situation. I don't think we'll ever go back to the way things were decades ago.
  3. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    I think that, at this point, all of the schools want to acquire as much talent as they can, including through taking players off of rivals' rosters. Some, based on location, history, resources etc, do better at this than others. The "tactics" used now appear to be alumni and community members doing the recruiting. It's not clear how you'd regulate these folks just trying to persuade kids or parents to make the move. But, probably the biggest thing leading to the "super team" building is the kids themselves. Camps, pick-up drills/games and 7v7 are where kids from all of the area schools meet up and hang out. It's just popular right now to play with the other best players in your area.
    Another thing is there is much greater awareness of the "big picture", their career as a whole. Players now don't want to play 70-80 plays a game, fearing injury or getting worn down. We're seeing players going places where they know they will be sharing snaps with others, and this is actually the allure! That's a big change from not too long ago, when players never wanted to come out of the game for any reason. 
  4. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    The idea, anyway, is to allow every school to stockpile talent as best they can. Just like you see in college football. The programs doing the best job will attract the best players, so the story goes. But, in reality, it's a chicken and egg question. Are the teams attracting the best talent because they're doing the best job? Or are they "doing the best job" primarily through beating teams because they have vastly superior talent? I think Bill Castle built a strong enough track record decades before the wild scene we have now that he could claim the former. That can be said for some others as well of course.
    (This issue also applies to schools and their academic ratings. Different topic, though.)
  5. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    Very bad for the sport IMO. My senior year, we played at Lake Wales. Lake Wales was probably the top dawg in Polk county the first half of the 1990s. It was a bit scary playing them on the road, and they won fairly decisively. It was on the verge of being a blowout, closing at 26-14. Now, Lakeland just took the best player from Lake Wales' 2024 class, 2025 class and 2026 class...right after they went 15-0 and won state. It's WILD.
  6. Like
    Longtime Observer reacted to Ray Icaza in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    That has been the case for a long time as that area is not only blessed with the best talent pool but in significant numbers unmatched by the rest of our state.  The "U" became a national contender under Coach Schnellenberger with him declaring all he had to do was get the best players in SFL to achieve this goal when he was hired in 1979.  He built a fence around the "State of Miami" and did just that.  Other national powers eventually realized that fact and invested efforts in that area to compete for said talent.  Thus, the difficulty U of M has had in returning to prominence.  Those area HS schools have not just boasted of their dominance for decades but have most importantly backed it up. 
  7. Like
    Longtime Observer reacted to VeniceIndianFan in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    The truly elite Florida teams are mostly all in Broward and Dade. The rest of the state really can’t compete with these juggernauts on a yearly basis without “acquiring” a lot of local talent from other schools. Though I don’t think I’ve ever seen one school “acquire” twenty-eight other kids in one year before. Sheesh. 
  8. Haha
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    Yes. This is why the Dade crowd is picking Norland to blow out Lakeland. Granted, that crowd would pick *any* Dade team-including the 0-10 teams- to blow out Lakeland. LMAO
  9. Thanks
    Longtime Observer reacted to VeniceIndianFan in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    It’s 28 now. Insane. 
  10. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    I think there is at least a 50% chance that Lakeland and Venice will both have at least one loss in the regular season. Lakeland has Norland, whose QB single-handedly had 500 yards of total offense against Miami Central in a playoff game to go with 27 transfers; St. Joseph's, which may well have the best team in the history of the northeastern United States; and CAI, who I think is going to leave a lot of teams' fans disappointed. Venice also has CAI, who beat them last year; Armwood and a game at Cocoa. Lakeland could absolutely finish 7-3 this season, and Venice could be 8-2. How the silly computer ratings end up rating the teams with those records is anyone's guess! If both teams were to somehow make it to a state title game undefeated, it should be a national top 10 match up. That's unlikely IMO.
  11. Thanks
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    I believe the transfer deadline has passed. So, unless they got some transfers in the last few days, it'll have to happen through what's on the roster now. From what we've seen, if they get a transfer, it's all over social media and will be broadcast by Peacock etc on the youtube show. I doubt they'd add anyone without announcing it.
  12. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Nulli Secundus in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    Of course it is impossible to know how the season will play out on August 1, without having seen any of the teams play. It does seem to be quite hard to imagine 4S being settled without a Lakeland-Venice match up at some point (with the weird, poor ratings system, there's no way to be sure how the seeding will play out, so the game may not be in the state title game).
    Lakeland was considerably better than Venice from a talent perspective last year. They did manage a total offense advantage of 392-138, and took a knee at the 1 yard-line late when they could've scored easily. Everyone at Lakeland has said Osceola was easily the best team they played last year. BUT, Lakeland has been much more talented than Venice in each and every game the schools have ever played (lots of spring games in the last ten years). Since 2017, Venice has given Lakeland fits each time (excepting the 2022 spring game). Coaching, execution, scheme etc have all been a clear edge for Venice, making wins very hard to come by despite Lakeland's clear talent advantage. This year, Lakeland has a new coach and a new approach. Will coaching, execution and scheme remain clear Venice advantages??
    Looking at returning starters from 2022, Venice has more starters back, with 7 (or 8 if you count both RBs who rarely play at the same time) back on offense and 5-6 back on defense. Lakeland has 4 back on O if counting both Rbs and, generously 3-4 back on D (the DL had a roatation with 2 who played often back). 
    Before 2017, what I wrote above would point to favoring Venice to get the best of Lakeland. But, as we all know, the "transfer portal" has dramatically changed (ruined?) the game. Keeping an eye on hudl and Twitter, it appears that Lakeland has received considerably more transfers than Venice. But, Venice has done significantly more to celebrate and outright market its success in the transfer portal, and they do have the highest rated transfer in the state. So, I think the perception is that Venice did better, even though I don't see evidence for that claim.
    I think perhaps the only thing we can be sure of in 4S is that all of the top teams will put up HUGE numbers offensively. Venice, Lake Minneola, and now Lakeland will all employ hurry-up offenses led by FBS-caliber QBs and speedy skill position players. Bartram Trail has a major recruit at QB and I'd bet they'll put points up as well. I think Osceola is looking at a bit of a down year, and will be no better than the 4th best team on Lakeland's schedule. Venice's weaknesses will be in the trenches, where I think they're still stuck with the mediocre kids they had last year on the OL, and they lost all 4 starters on the DL who played at least 95% of the plays last year. Lakeland is green in the trenches, and that figures to be their weakest areas as well. Lake Minneola is emerging as something of a recruiting power in its area, and will be better than many think. I want to see Vero Beach win a really big game before I pay much attention to them.
    No predictions on records or playoffs until I see the teams play a few games.
     
  13. Like
    Longtime Observer reacted to Perspective in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    I've heard Venice has been making an effort to shore up their OL and DL, but it remains to be seen whether those efforts will come to fruition.  
  14. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Perspective in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    Of course it is impossible to know how the season will play out on August 1, without having seen any of the teams play. It does seem to be quite hard to imagine 4S being settled without a Lakeland-Venice match up at some point (with the weird, poor ratings system, there's no way to be sure how the seeding will play out, so the game may not be in the state title game).
    Lakeland was considerably better than Venice from a talent perspective last year. They did manage a total offense advantage of 392-138, and took a knee at the 1 yard-line late when they could've scored easily. Everyone at Lakeland has said Osceola was easily the best team they played last year. BUT, Lakeland has been much more talented than Venice in each and every game the schools have ever played (lots of spring games in the last ten years). Since 2017, Venice has given Lakeland fits each time (excepting the 2022 spring game). Coaching, execution, scheme etc have all been a clear edge for Venice, making wins very hard to come by despite Lakeland's clear talent advantage. This year, Lakeland has a new coach and a new approach. Will coaching, execution and scheme remain clear Venice advantages??
    Looking at returning starters from 2022, Venice has more starters back, with 7 (or 8 if you count both RBs who rarely play at the same time) back on offense and 5-6 back on defense. Lakeland has 4 back on O if counting both Rbs and, generously 3-4 back on D (the DL had a roatation with 2 who played often back). 
    Before 2017, what I wrote above would point to favoring Venice to get the best of Lakeland. But, as we all know, the "transfer portal" has dramatically changed (ruined?) the game. Keeping an eye on hudl and Twitter, it appears that Lakeland has received considerably more transfers than Venice. But, Venice has done significantly more to celebrate and outright market its success in the transfer portal, and they do have the highest rated transfer in the state. So, I think the perception is that Venice did better, even though I don't see evidence for that claim.
    I think perhaps the only thing we can be sure of in 4S is that all of the top teams will put up HUGE numbers offensively. Venice, Lake Minneola, and now Lakeland will all employ hurry-up offenses led by FBS-caliber QBs and speedy skill position players. Bartram Trail has a major recruit at QB and I'd bet they'll put points up as well. I think Osceola is looking at a bit of a down year, and will be no better than the 4th best team on Lakeland's schedule. Venice's weaknesses will be in the trenches, where I think they're still stuck with the mediocre kids they had last year on the OL, and they lost all 4 starters on the DL who played at least 95% of the plays last year. Lakeland is green in the trenches, and that figures to be their weakest areas as well. Lake Minneola is emerging as something of a recruiting power in its area, and will be better than many think. I want to see Vero Beach win a really big game before I pay much attention to them.
    No predictions on records or playoffs until I see the teams play a few games.
     
  15. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from VeniceIndianFan in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    Of course it is impossible to know how the season will play out on August 1, without having seen any of the teams play. It does seem to be quite hard to imagine 4S being settled without a Lakeland-Venice match up at some point (with the weird, poor ratings system, there's no way to be sure how the seeding will play out, so the game may not be in the state title game).
    Lakeland was considerably better than Venice from a talent perspective last year. They did manage a total offense advantage of 392-138, and took a knee at the 1 yard-line late when they could've scored easily. Everyone at Lakeland has said Osceola was easily the best team they played last year. BUT, Lakeland has been much more talented than Venice in each and every game the schools have ever played (lots of spring games in the last ten years). Since 2017, Venice has given Lakeland fits each time (excepting the 2022 spring game). Coaching, execution, scheme etc have all been a clear edge for Venice, making wins very hard to come by despite Lakeland's clear talent advantage. This year, Lakeland has a new coach and a new approach. Will coaching, execution and scheme remain clear Venice advantages??
    Looking at returning starters from 2022, Venice has more starters back, with 7 (or 8 if you count both RBs who rarely play at the same time) back on offense and 5-6 back on defense. Lakeland has 4 back on O if counting both Rbs and, generously 3-4 back on D (the DL had a roatation with 2 who played often back). 
    Before 2017, what I wrote above would point to favoring Venice to get the best of Lakeland. But, as we all know, the "transfer portal" has dramatically changed (ruined?) the game. Keeping an eye on hudl and Twitter, it appears that Lakeland has received considerably more transfers than Venice. But, Venice has done significantly more to celebrate and outright market its success in the transfer portal, and they do have the highest rated transfer in the state. So, I think the perception is that Venice did better, even though I don't see evidence for that claim.
    I think perhaps the only thing we can be sure of in 4S is that all of the top teams will put up HUGE numbers offensively. Venice, Lake Minneola, and now Lakeland will all employ hurry-up offenses led by FBS-caliber QBs and speedy skill position players. Bartram Trail has a major recruit at QB and I'd bet they'll put points up as well. I think Osceola is looking at a bit of a down year, and will be no better than the 4th best team on Lakeland's schedule. Venice's weaknesses will be in the trenches, where I think they're still stuck with the mediocre kids they had last year on the OL, and they lost all 4 starters on the DL who played at least 95% of the plays last year. Lakeland is green in the trenches, and that figures to be their weakest areas as well. Lake Minneola is emerging as something of a recruiting power in its area, and will be better than many think. I want to see Vero Beach win a really big game before I pay much attention to them.
    No predictions on records or playoffs until I see the teams play a few games.
     
  16. Like
    Longtime Observer got a reaction from Ray Icaza in 4S ready to see a shakeup?   
    Of course it is impossible to know how the season will play out on August 1, without having seen any of the teams play. It does seem to be quite hard to imagine 4S being settled without a Lakeland-Venice match up at some point (with the weird, poor ratings system, there's no way to be sure how the seeding will play out, so the game may not be in the state title game).
    Lakeland was considerably better than Venice from a talent perspective last year. They did manage a total offense advantage of 392-138, and took a knee at the 1 yard-line late when they could've scored easily. Everyone at Lakeland has said Osceola was easily the best team they played last year. BUT, Lakeland has been much more talented than Venice in each and every game the schools have ever played (lots of spring games in the last ten years). Since 2017, Venice has given Lakeland fits each time (excepting the 2022 spring game). Coaching, execution, scheme etc have all been a clear edge for Venice, making wins very hard to come by despite Lakeland's clear talent advantage. This year, Lakeland has a new coach and a new approach. Will coaching, execution and scheme remain clear Venice advantages??
    Looking at returning starters from 2022, Venice has more starters back, with 7 (or 8 if you count both RBs who rarely play at the same time) back on offense and 5-6 back on defense. Lakeland has 4 back on O if counting both Rbs and, generously 3-4 back on D (the DL had a roatation with 2 who played often back). 
    Before 2017, what I wrote above would point to favoring Venice to get the best of Lakeland. But, as we all know, the "transfer portal" has dramatically changed (ruined?) the game. Keeping an eye on hudl and Twitter, it appears that Lakeland has received considerably more transfers than Venice. But, Venice has done significantly more to celebrate and outright market its success in the transfer portal, and they do have the highest rated transfer in the state. So, I think the perception is that Venice did better, even though I don't see evidence for that claim.
    I think perhaps the only thing we can be sure of in 4S is that all of the top teams will put up HUGE numbers offensively. Venice, Lake Minneola, and now Lakeland will all employ hurry-up offenses led by FBS-caliber QBs and speedy skill position players. Bartram Trail has a major recruit at QB and I'd bet they'll put points up as well. I think Osceola is looking at a bit of a down year, and will be no better than the 4th best team on Lakeland's schedule. Venice's weaknesses will be in the trenches, where I think they're still stuck with the mediocre kids they had last year on the OL, and they lost all 4 starters on the DL who played at least 95% of the plays last year. Lakeland is green in the trenches, and that figures to be their weakest areas as well. Lake Minneola is emerging as something of a recruiting power in its area, and will be better than many think. I want to see Vero Beach win a really big game before I pay much attention to them.
    No predictions on records or playoffs until I see the teams play a few games.
     
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