Longtime Observer

I gather Dade/Broward aren't canceling/postponing games?

I'm convinced that the popularity of the sport at the college and high school levels will have to plummet precipitously for real regulation to return. Too many people in positions of authority think that fan interest at these levels exists for the same reason it exists at the NFL level. I've failed time and again to persuade such people otherwise.

Kritzka started the season as the starter, and played all of the Lakeland game (which, due to not being on ESPN, was seen by virtually nobody). McQueen was eligible for Lakeland; the coaching staff simply went with Kritzka. He, along with the entire Miami Central offense, was mostly shut down by Lakeland. This led to pressure on the Central coaching staff, with jobs possibly being in jeopardy. So, one avenue for said coaches was to bench the QB and demand that fans understand the 4* QB who is committed to Penn St. was *uniquely* and especially bad and that the 0* QB was the answer. It's not- because it CAN'T BE- the case that Lakeland has a really good defense, played a really good game and might just be better than America Heritage etc. No, the 4* Penn St. commit is just really bad and the coaching staff was high on weed when they CHOSE to play Kritzka for the whole game. Dade fans of all schools enjoy this approach, as there is no chance Central will lose to a non-Dade, non-Broward team the rest of the way. If this transfer is really allowed to happen at this juncture of the season, then the entire sport (and FHSAA, but we knew that) is a joke. One possible explanation I've seen floated is that many players do not attend the school they play for; they attend a school that doesn't have football and play where they please. But, even with that dumb loophole, there's no excuse for allowing a kid to play literally half the season at one school and then, in October, move over to play that very season for another school. It's an absolute disgrace.

I haven't seen it mentioned here, but, we nearly had a dream scenario save us here. Calpreps announced they were closing business due to nonpayment from CBS/Maxpreps. It is the calpreps computer ratings- which included some mystery adjustment as requested by the FHSAA- which the FHSAA uses. But, they quickly announced a resolution and so we are back stuck with these crappy ratings.

IMG Palmetto Mad co. Plantation Vero Beach Jesuit Central Cocoa Deland Lincoln Western

It looks like I'm toast in this contest! Oh well!

This. As I mentioned before, Osceola managed to bleed half of a quarter off the clock vs. Lake Mary without its offense gaining a single first down. They ran three times, stayed in bounds all three, ran the play clock all the way down before snapping the ball, punted, got a fumble from LM, and then did the same thing again until the 1st half ended. That is a great way to keep the score down when you feel you're outmanned.

I give you credit for acknowledging what you did in #2. On #3, I think onside kicks are simply smart football. I think they are considerably higher percentage than is assumed, though some of that is dependent upon sometimes surprising the other team with it. The NFL effectively affirmed what I say by banning such kicks. It is possible there is some gray area which might have to be addressed in the rules when it comes to kicks that barely (if ever) make it ten yards, when the kicking team uses big guys to run interference on fielders who try to come up and recover the dribbler kicks. *I noticed Lakeland now (as of yesterday lol) puts a big guy on kickoff coverage in the same spot Venice had their big guy. We may see some copycat work on this!

One thing I notice is the way the officials really scramble to quickly get the ball set for Venice's offense, and then it sure seems like the offense is not set for a full second before the snap a lot. There are many officiating crews who won't hustle so quickly to appease the wishes of a team that wants to play fast. There are other areas where an impact can be seen, albeit subtly. When the officials declare a "water break" is up to them to a degree, though it's usually supposed to occur around the 6 minute mark of each quarter. I suspect we rarely see the Venice officials stopping play when Venice is on offense and on a roll. I remember a game where the officials waited until 3 minutes and change were left in a quarter before stopping play, as Venice was moving the ball in the preceding minutes. The Indians still had the ball at the stoppage, but it seems the officials were trying their darndest to wait until Venice's possession ended. Obviously, holding is a call that can be made most every play...or not. You'd have to watch a lot of film from multiple angles to make a case in this area.

I did little research on these teams.

Blake Winter Springs Gateway South Sumter Key West Neumann Chipley Cypress Lake Sattelite Belen Jesuit Carol City Naples St. Augustine Bishop Verot

the problem for Lake Gibson is that Lakeland passed on nearly every play. LOTS of play-action bombs. Previously, the play calling has been mind-numbingly predictable and conservative. Lakeland is much more capable and dangerous through the air than they've shown thus far. (I assume they've been holding back for STA.) Gibson also passed on most plays. They needed to consult with Osceola and use a "bleed the clock" approach instead of trying to score.

STA is currently #57 in the state. The Raiders are currently behind the likes of Beachside (confession: I did not know there was such a school) and many teams with one or more losses. The Raiders are the #1 team in the state in the maxpreps ratings. I'm sorry, but, I don't think the mere presence or absence of some "prediction model" explains this. Something profoundly screwy is impacting the ratings.

The matter of "running up the score" has ALREADY been accounted for- in a significant way- by having the hyper-aggressive running clock rule (Florida's running clock runs much more liberally than many other states' running clock). This perverse obsession with wanting everyone to be equal, and/or not wanting to hurt others' feelings, has gone too far. Margin of victory DOES help to determine who the better teams are in the aggregate.

The problem, as is always the case with computer ratings, is the matter of strength of schedule. It's not that SOS doesn't matter or is overvalued. It's that determining HOW to measure SOS is tricky. Inevitably, either records end up being determinant (which makes an easier schedule a good idea), OR a good bit of subjectivity- in how programmers feel about teams and adjust their formulas- plays a large role. As others have said, the exact formula and weighting system must be revealed to the public if these ratings are to be used to set playoff seeding. If the owner of the formula won't reveal it, it shouldn't be used to determine the outcomes of teams' seasons.