2025 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: Middleburg seeks fourth consecutive playoff trip with a familiar looking schedule

OVERVIEW

The Middleburg Broncos, which reached the playoffs for a school-record third consecutive season in 2024, look to make it four in a row in 2025. With the schedule looking the same from 2024, can the Broncos achieve their win total from last year, or could a weak schedule combined with some improvement from a couple of teams on the schedule put the Broncos on the outside looking in? Let’s take a further look at our 2025 schedule analysis.

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2025 SCHEDULE

Kickoff 7:00 pm unless noted

*  – District

• Week 1 – Fri. 8/22: at Westside
• Week 2 – Fri. 8/29: vs. North Florida Educational (Jacksonville)
• Week 3 – Fri. 9/5: at Clay (Green Cove Springs)
• Week 4 – Fri. 9/12: vs. Hollis Christian (Jacksonville)
• Week 5 – Fri. 9/19: vs. Ridgeview (Orange Park)
• Week 6 – Fri. 9/26: vs. Orange Park*
• Week 7 – Fri. 10/3: BYE WEEK
• Week 8 – Fri. 10/10: vs. Ponte Vedra*
• Week 9 – Fri. 10/17: vs. Beachside (St. Johns)*
• Week 10 – Fri. 10/24: at Fleming Island*, 7:30
• Week 11 – Fri. 10/31: vs. North Marion (Citra)

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STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

The Broncos will enter the 2025 season with an SOS rating of .341. What does that mean? The schedule is pretty weak. The best opponents are district foes Ponte Vedra and Fleming Island, who advanced to the regional semifinals last year. Hollis Christian and North Florida Educational look like they will once again be the easiest opponents on the schedule. Compared to 2024, the schedule remains about the same in terms of ease.

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KEY GAMES & MUST-WATCH MATCHUPS

The Broncos will have their biggest rivalry game early on with Clay in Week 3, which is the oldest continuous rivalry in Clay County. Middleburg won last year’s battle in a tough defensive slugfest, 9-0, on their run to winning six straight games. That game against Clay could be the most important of the non-district games on the slate, especially if the Blue Devils show signs of improvement out of the gate to start the season that would give Middleburg a test. The most important district game will come down to Fleming Island in Week 10 if the Broncos are in the mix for a fourth-consecutive playoff appearance, as that game might be the make or break to reaching the playoffs in Class 5A-Region 1.

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HOME VS. AWAY BALANCE

The 2025 schedule for Middleburg is balanced with five games at Powers Field and five on the road. The Broncos will get a two-game home streak come mid-October, but the balance between being on the road and being at home doesn’t lend to a streak of being on the road for consecutive weeks during the regular season. And this year’s longest road trip for Middleburg? A 17-mile jaunt over to Westside in Week 1 while the trip to Clay is almost the same distance at 16.5 miles, with the trip to Ridgeview clocking in at 5.4 miles up Blanding Blvd.

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OPPONENT BREAKDOWN

If you are looking for playoff teams to balance Middleburg’s schedule, you will find very few here. Just three district foes, Ponte Vedra, Beachside, and Fleming Island, made up the number of teams that reached the playoffs in 2024. With the lower number of teams that made the playoffs and likely will be in playoff contention again in 2025, the Broncos will need to see improvements from a few other teams on the schedule to ensure a potential fourth consecutive trip to the playoffs.

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BYE WEEK PLACEMENT

Head Coach Ryan Wolfe has once again placed the bye week at the midway point for the Broncos, which should help him and his coaching staff see where the team is at in the first week of October. At that point, the Broncos will have six games down and four left, three of which are key critical district games. The rest could make or break if they can secure victories at home against Ponte Vedra and Beachside in Week’s 8 and 9.

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PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS

Middleburg has reached the playoffs for three years straight, something that was never achieved before in school history. The Broncos could continue the streak in 2025, but again, they will need to win some key games along the way. As we mentioned before, we feel the game against Clay as a non-district game will be the most crucial one early on, with the district games against Ponte Vedra, Beachside, and Fleming Island all being crucial. Based on the schedule and the trends for Middleburg over the last few years, a seed in the No. 7 or No. 8 range is the most likely scenario for 2025 if the Broncos can at least get six wins.

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PREDICTED RECORD & FINAL THOUGHTS

Honestly, with the schedule at hand, Middleburg can easily finish 5-5 on the regular season, but in a worst-case scenario, it is potentially 4-6, with the best-case scenario matching the 7-3 regular season record from 2024. Beating Ponte Vedra, Beachside, and Fleming Island will be tall orders, as the Broncos were not as competitive in games with the latter two teams last year. If anything, I am feeling Middleburg will step back some here and go 6-4 with potentially a loss to Clay or, depending on how North Marion is doing, a loss to them and just potentially either getting a playoff berth with the No. 8 seed or missing the playoffs by a hair.