FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 1A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Thirty-two teams. Four regions. One step closer to the state championships at the AdventHealth Training Center in Tampa — The training home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The names at the top are familiar — and for good reason.

Miami Edison returns as the defending Class 1A state champion, carrying the most complete profile in the field. Wildwood , last year’s state runner-up, is back with a team that still grades among the best in the classification despite its seed. Florida High (Tallahassee) and Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) — both state semifinalists a year ago — enter with the kind of balance that translates deep into May.

On the surface, this looks like a bracket where the favorites should advance.

Underneath, it’s tighter than it looks.

The Florida Power Rankings Index does not just rank teams — it separates them. And in Class 1A, that separation is clear at the top and nearly nonexistent in the middle.

That is where this round will be decided.

CLASS 1A FPRI BOARD

At the top, there is a real distance.

Miami Edison (52.43) and Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) (50.12) have created a gap with dominant scoring margins and strong overall profiles. Tampa Catholic (43.77) and Florida High (Tallahassee) (40.63) round out a group that consistently performs like title contenders.

But the second tier is where things shift.

Wildwood (37.34), despite being a No. 4 seed, sits firmly inside the top five. True North (Miami) (36.98), Bolles (Jacksonville) (33.32), and Eagle’s View (Jacksonville) (29.95) all bring profiles capable of making deep runs.

Then comes the cluster — and this is where volatility lives.

John Carroll (Fort Pierce) (19.20), Atlantic (Port Orange) (18.77), Bradford (Starke) (17.65), and Avon Park (16.29) are separated by fractions, not tiers.

Strength of schedule sharpens that picture.

Teams like SLAM (Miami) (No. 17 SOS) and Miami Edison (No. 41 SOS) have been tested consistently, while others — including Eagle’s View (Jacksonville) (No. 428 SOS) and Somerset Charter (Silver Palms) (No. 405 SOS) — have dominated but against much softer competition.

That contrast does not always matter early.

But when games tighten, it tends to show.

CLASS 1A POWER 16 (FPRI)

Rank Team Record Rating SOS Rank 1 Miami Edison 14-1 52.43 41 2 Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) 14-1 50.12 134 3 Tampa Catholic 15-2 43.77 108 4 Florida High (Tallahassee) 13-2 40.63 124 5 Wildwood 9-2 37.34 222 6 True North (Miami) 13-3 36.98 50 7 Bolles (Jacksonville) 14-2 33.32 151 8 Eagle’s View (Jacksonville) 14-2 29.95 428 9 Lakewood (St. Petersburg) 13-3 27.20 252 10 Somerset Charter (Silver Palms) 17-0 23.17 405 11 Boca Ciega (Gulfport) 15-3 23.02 333 12 John Carroll (Fort Pierce) 13-4 19.20 209 13 Atlantic (Port Orange) 11-4 18.77 259 14 Bradford (Starke) 11-4 17.65 281 15 Avon Park 15-3 16.29 375 16 Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach) 12-4 13.71 236

THE GAMES TO WATCH

All games Tuesday, April 2 8

No. 7 Atlantic (Port Orange) (11-4) at No. 2 John Carroll (Fort Pierce) (13-4), 7 PM

This is the cleanest toss-up in the Class 1A bracket.

The FPRI ratings are nearly identical — John Carroll (Fort Pierce) at 19.20 and Atlantic (Port Orange) at 18.77 — which is why the projection lands inside a single possession. John Carroll has the slight edge in the model, but Atlantic brings enough offensive firepower to make this dangerous.

The Sharks are led by quarterback Terriana Ammons , who has thrown for 2,903 yards and 25 touchdowns while also rushing for 861 yards and 10 more scores. Her top target, Nadiyah Kwaku , has 85 catches for 1,316 yards and 17 touchdowns, giving Atlantic one of the most productive QB-WR connections left in Class 1A.

Defensively, Atlantic has playmakers too, with Reniyah Yan posting 44 sacks and Santana Dixon collecting 10 interceptions. John Carroll does not have public stats available, but the Rams’ team profile — 13-4, 342 points scored and 104 allowed — is strong enough for FPRI to give them the narrow edge.

FPRI Projection: John Carroll (Fort Pierce) 22, Atlantic (Port Orange) 20 Win Probability: John Carroll 59.2% | Atlantic 40.8% Forecast: John Carroll 2 over Atlantic

No. 4 Keys Gate (Homestead) (10-4) at No. 5 Miami Carol City (8-4), 5 PM

This is where the bracket can break.

The model barely separates Keys Gate (Homestead) and Miami Carol City , with Keys Gate at 5.63 and Miami Carol City at 3.17. After adjustments, this turns into a near coin flip.

The challenge here is that both teams have limited public stat availability, with only partial data available. That makes the FPRI profile even more important. Keys Gate gets the slight edge because of its defensive profile, allowing just 81 points across 14 games. Miami Carol City has been more productive offensively, scoring 215 points in 12 games, but the model leans toward the steadier defensive side.

In a one-point projection, that matters.

FPRI Projection: Keys Gate (Homestead) 17, Miami Carol City 16 Win Probability: Keys Gate 51.8% | Miami Carol City 48.2% Forecast: Keys Gate 1 over Miami Carol City

No. 4 Destin (10-5) at No. 5 Bradford (Starke) (11-4), 7 PM

Bradford has the edge in the model. Destin has the offensive pieces to test it.

Bradford (Starke) enters with the stronger FPRI rating, but Destin has enough production to make this interesting early. The Sharks have thrown for 2,640 yards and 29 touchdowns as a team, with Neilya Stewart leading the way as a dual-threat force. Stewart has thrown for 1,794 yards and 20 touchdowns while rushing for 770 yards and 12 scores.

Destin also has a major receiving weapon in Evie Gherdovich , who has 62 catches for 865 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bradford counters with quarterback Riley Shuford , who has thrown for 1,214 yards and 21 touchdowns, while Ar’Nayshia Griffin has added 557 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

The difference may be Bradford’s cleaner passing profile. The Tornadoes have thrown 29 touchdowns against only seven interceptions as a team, while Destin has thrown 14 picks. In a playoff game, that turnover gap matters.

FPRI Projection: Bradford (Starke) 28, Destin 16 Win Probability: Bradford 85.8% | Destin 14.2% Forecast: Bradford 12 over Destin

No. 4 Avon Park (15-3) at No. 5 Coral Springs Charter (13-2), 7 PM

This is record vs. reality.

Coral Springs Charter has the better record and strong passing numbers, but Avon Park has the stronger FPRI profile and the more explosive ground game. The Red Devils have rushed for 3,982 yards and 30 touchdowns as a team, averaging 221.2 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Tytianna Allen has thrown for 2,218 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for 1,394 yards and 18 more scores. Kamila Watt adds another major problem with 1,562 rushing yards, 286 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns. Defensively, Avon Park also brings disruption with 57 sacks and 31 interceptions.

Coral Springs Charter can absolutely throw it. Ali Rodriguez has passed for 2,666 yards and 20 touchdowns while rushing for 1,156 yards and 11 scores. Brenna Mazanec , Eva Rodriguez, and Riley Guerrera give the Panthers multiple receiving options, while O’meira Charlton has 18 sacks.

But the schedule context matters here. Coral Springs Charter’s SOS sits at No. 416, while Avon Park has built a stronger FPRI rating against a tougher path. That is why the model trusts Avon Park despite the seed line and record.

FPRI Projection: Avon Park 24, Coral Springs Charter 15 Win Probability: Avon Park 79.4% | Coral Springs Charter 20.6% Forecast: Avon Park 9 over Coral Springs Charter

FULL REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PICKS

All games Tuesday, April 2 8

Region 1

No. 8 West Nassau (Callahan) (10-4) at No. 1 Florida High (Tallahassee) (13-2), 7 PM West Nassau’s record looks solid, but its SOS is No. 479, one of the weakest in the field. That is a brutal setup against Florida High, a returning state semifinalist with a top-four FPRI rating.

FPRI Projection: Florida High (Tallahassee) 50, West Nassau (Callahan) 2 Win Probability: Florida High 99.9% | West Nassau 0.1% Forecast: Florida High 50 over West Nassau

No. 4 Destin (10-5) at No. 5 Bradford (Starke) (11-4), 7 PM Bradford has the stronger rating and home-field edge, while Destin’s slightly tougher schedule keeps this from being ignored. The model still sees enough separation for Bradford to move on.

FPRI Projection: Bradford (Starke) 28, Destin 16 Win Probability: Bradford 85.8% | Destin 14.2% Forecast: Bradford 12 over Destin

No. 7 FAMU (Tallahassee) (10-7) at No. 2 Bolles (Jacksonville) (14-2), 5:30 PM Bolles combines a top-seven Class 1A rating with a defense that has allowed just 91 points. FAMU has been tested more than some lower seeds, but this is a steep jump.

FPRI Projection: Bolles (Jacksonville) 42, FAMU (Tallahassee) 0 Win Probability: Bolles 99.8% | FAMU 0.2% Forecast: Bolles 40 over FAMU

No. 6 University Christian (Jacksonville) (7-5) vs. No. 3 Eagle’s View (Jacksonville) (14-2), 7 PM Eagle’s View has the explosive scoring profile — 622 points — but its SOS rank of No. 428 raises real translation concerns, though that question was largely answered in a 33-0 win over University Christian on March 9. University Christian’s stronger schedule gives this some theoretical intrigue, but the prior result and scoring gap point clearly in one direction.

FPRI Projection: Eagle’s View (Jacksonville) 42, University Christian (Jacksonville) 20 Win Probability: Eagle’s View 96.4% | University Christian 3.6% Forecast: Eagle’s View 22 over University Christian

Region 2

No. 8 Trinity Catholic (Ocala) (9-5) at No. 1 Tampa Catholic (15-2), 7 PM Tampa Catholic has one of the most complete profiles in the bracket: 529 points scored, 111 allowed, and a top-three Class 1A rating. Trinity Catholic has enough wins to belong, but the gap here is massive.

FPRI Projection: Tampa Catholic 49, Trinity Catholic (Ocala) 6 Win Probability: Tampa Catholic 99.9% | Trinity Catholic 0.1% Forecast: Tampa Catholic 43 over Trinity Catholic

No. 5 Tarpon Springs (10-6) at No. 4 Wildwood (9-2), 7 PM The seed line says this is a 4-5 game. FPRI says otherwise. Wildwood is the defending state runner-up and still grades as the No. 5 team in Class 1A.

FPRI Projection: Wildwood 42, Tarpon Springs 4 Win Probability: Wildwood 99.7% | Tarpon Springs 0.3% Forecast: Wildwood 38 over Tarpon Springs

No. 7 Bell Creek (Riverview) (12-4) at No. 2 Boca Ciega (Gulfport) (15-3), 7 PM Boca Ciega has allowed only 96 points in 18 games, and that defensive consistency carries weight. Bell Creek’s record is strong, but its SOS profile is much softer.

FPRI Projection: Boca Ciega (Gulfport) 32, Bell Creek (Riverview) 8 Win Probability: Boca Ciega 97.8% | Bell Creek 2.2% Forecast: Boca Ciega 24 over Bell Creek

No. 6 Dunedin (11-7) at No. 3 Lakewood (St. Petersburg) (13-3), 7 PM Lakewood’s balance gives it the clear edge. Dunedin has played 18 games and has experience, but the rating gap says Lakewood should control this.

FPRI Projection: Lakewood (St. Petersburg) 35, Dunedin 7 Win Probability: Lakewood 98.7% | Dunedin 1.3% Forecast: Lakewood 28 over Dunedin

Region 3

No. 8 Space Coast (Cocoa) (12-4) at No. 1 Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) (14-1), 6 PM Somerset Canyons profiles as a title contender, and the model considers this the largest mismatch in Class 1A, with Space Coast carrying a No. 458 SOS ranking. That concern is amplified by the fact that Space Coast is a first-year program, making this a steep jump in class against one of the most efficient teams in the field.

FPRI Projection: Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) 56, Space Coast (Cocoa) 0 Win Probability: Somerset Canyons 100.0% | Space Coast 0.0% Forecast: Somerset Canyons 56 over Space Coast

No. 4 Avon Park (15-3) at No. 5 Coral Springs Charter (13-2), 7 PM Coral Springs Charter brings the better record, but the schedule gap is impossible to ignore. Avon Park’s rating and scoring profile are stronger, and the model sees that clearly.

FPRI Projection: Avon Park 24, Coral Springs Charter 15 Win Probability: Avon Park 79.4% | Coral Springs Charter 20.6% Forecast: Avon Park 9 over Coral Springs Charter

No. 7 Atlantic (Port Orange) (11-4) at No. 2 John Carroll (Fort Pierce) (13-4), 7 PM This is one of the few true toss-ups on the board. John Carroll has the home edge and the slight model lean, but Atlantic’s offensive production makes this a real danger spot.

FPRI Projection: John Carroll (Fort Pierce) 22, Atlantic (Port Orange) 20 Win Probability: John Carroll 59.2% | Atlantic 40.8% Forecast: John Carroll 2 over Atlantic

No. 6 Pahokee (7-6) at No. 3 Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach) (12-4), 7 PM Pahokee’s SOS suggests a tougher profile than its record, but this is now a third meeting with Cardinal Newman, already winning 18-0 on March 24 and 12-6 in the district semifinals on April 21. The margin has tightened, but the consistent defensive edge still belongs to Cardinal Newman.

FPRI Projection: Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach) 26, Pahokee 9 Win Probability: Cardinal Newman 93.1% | Pahokee 6.9% Forecast: Cardinal Newman 17 over Pahokee

Region 4

No. 8 Monsignor Pace (Miami) (9-5) at No. 1 Miami Edison (14-1), 3:30 PM The defending champs are the No. 1 team in Class 1A FPRI and have done it against a strong SOS. Monsignor Pace has been tested, too, but Miami Edison’s 424-point scoring differential is a different kind of problem.

FPRI Projection: Miami Edison 49, Monsignor Pace (Miami) 0 Win Probability: Miami Edison 99.9% | Monsignor Pace 0.1% Forecast: Miami Edison 49 over Monsignor Pace

No. 4 Keys Gate (Homestead) (10-4) at No. 5 Miami Carol City (8-4), 5 PM A coin flip — and one of the few games where the bracket could shift immediately. Keys Gate’s defense gives it the slight model edge, but Miami Carol City’s scoring profile keeps this tight.

FPRI Projection: Keys Gate (Homestead) 17, Miami Carol City 16 Win Probability: Keys Gate 51.8% | Miami Carol City 48.2% Forecast: Keys Gate 1 over Miami Carol City

No. 7 Ransom Everglades (Miami) (8-4) at No. 2 True North (Miami) (13-3), 5:30 PM True North brings both a top-six Class 1A rating and a strong SOS profile. That combination makes this one of the safer projections in Region 4.

FPRI Projection: True North (Miami) 39, Ransom Everglades (Miami) 0 Win Probability: True North 99.9% | Ransom Everglades 0.1% Forecast: True North 39 over Ransom Everglades

No. 6 SLAM (Miami) (6-8) at No. 3 Somerset Charter (Silver Palms) (17-0), 4 PM This is a contrast game — Somerset Charter’s perfect record versus SLAM’s tougher schedule — but the recent result leans heavily toward the favorite after a 13-6 win on April 10. The model still trusts Somerset Charter’s defense and consistency to control this matchup again.

FPRI Projection: Somerset Charter (Silver Palms) 26, SLAM (Miami) 6 Win Probability: Somerset Charter 95.2% | SLAM 4.8% Forecast: Somerset Charter 20 over SLAM

FINAL TAKE

Class 1A has a clear top tier.

It also has a messy middle.

That is what makes this opening round interesting. The favorites should handle business, but several matchups carry enough tension to make the next round look different by Wednesday morning.

The safest names are obvious.

The swing games are not.

And in this bracket, one flip is enough to change the road to Tampa.

FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 1A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

The favorites are clear — the margins are not, and the numbers reveal where everything could flip

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FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 1A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

The favorites are clear — the margins are not, and the numbers reveal where everything could flip

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