FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 2A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Thirty-two teams. Four regions. One step closer to the state championships at the AdventHealth Training Center in Tampa — The training home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

At the top, the names are not just familiar — they are dominant.

Robinson (Tampa) returns as the defending Class 2A state champion, chasing a remarkable 10th straight state title and 11th overall. Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) , last year’s state runner-up, is back with one of the strongest profiles in the field. Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) and Hernando (Brooksville) — both 2025 state semifinalists — enter with the balance needed to make another deep run.

On paper, this bracket looks top-heavy.

Underneath, it is not that simple.

The Florida Power Rankings Index does not just rank teams — it separates them. And in Class 2A, that separation is clear at the top and much tighter everywhere else.

That is where this round will be decided.

CLASS 2A FPRI BOARD

At the top, there is a real distance.

Robinson (Tampa) (67.38) stands alone. The Knights’ +513 point differential and defensive dominance — just 89 points allowed — make them the clear No. 1.

Behind them, a second tier of true contenders forms.

Miami Northwestern (50.41) , Deltona (49.05) , and Clay (Green Cove Springs) (48.46) all bring elite scoring margins and strong overall profiles. Paxon (Jacksonville) (45.17) and Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) (44.41) round out a group capable of reaching Tampa.

Then comes the cluster.

Osceola (Seminole) (42.29) , Bonita Springs (42.25) , and Hernando (Brooksville) (40.80) sit tightly grouped — separated by fractions, not tiers.

That is where volatility begins.

Strength of schedule sharpens the picture.

Teams like Hernando (Brooksville) (No. 10 SOS) and Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) (No. 42 SOS) have been tested consistently, while others — including Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) (No. 469 SOS) — have dominated against much softer competition.

That contrast does not always matter early.

But when games tighten, it tends to show.

CLASS 2A POWER 16 (FPRI)

Rank Team Record Rating SOS Rank 1 Robinson (Tampa) 16-1 67.38 26 2 Miami Northwestern 14-2 50.41 24 3 Deltona 16-0 49.05 96 4 Clay (Green Cove Springs) 13-1 48.46 196 5 Paxon (Jacksonville) 14-2 45.17 86 6 Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) 14-3 44.41 42 7 Osceola (Seminole) 17-1 42.29 149 8 Bonita Springs 18-0 42.25 318 9 Hernando (Brooksville) 12-3 40.80 10 10 Bishop Verot (Fort Myers) 13-1 35.93 232 11 Nature Coast (Brooksville) 13-4 34.68 65 12 Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) 12-5 30.10 63 13 Gateway (Kissimmee) 13-3 28.26 331 14 Weeki Wachee 12-3 26.46 262 15 Citrus (Inverness) 11-6 23.99 35 16 Countryside (Clearwater) 12-5 21.37 135

THE GAMES TO WATCH

All games Tuesday, April 28

No. 5 Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) (11-1) at No. 4 St. Augustine (12-5), 6 PM

This is no longer just offense vs. uncertainty — it is volatility vs. structure.

Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) brings one of the most explosive offenses in Class 2A, led by Kamryn Hughes (2,226 passing yards, 22 TDs; 773 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and supported by Anaiyah Adams (805 passing yards, 8 TDs). On the outside, Devani Williams (1,308 yards, 11 TDs) is a true vertical game-breaker, with Dani Slattery adding secondary production. The Wildcats can score in bursts and change games quickly.

But the model is no longer chasing the ceiling — it is weighing stability.

St. Augustine’s profile is built on schedule strength, defensive resistance, and game control rather than raw production. The Yellow Jackets’ 12-5 record comes against stronger competition, and even without full public stats, the FPRI leans into that consistency, especially in a playoff setting where limiting explosive plays becomes the priority.

Booker T. Washington has the higher ceiling. St. Augustine has the steadier floor — and in this projection, that difference is decisive.

FPRI Projection: St. Augustine 24, Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) 20 Win Probability: St. Augustine 62.9% | Booker T. Washington 37.1% Forecast: St. Augustine 4 over Booker T. Washington

No. 6 Yulee (10-6) at No. 3 Arnold (Panama City Beach) (13-3), 7 PM CT

This is experience vs. emergence.

Yulee has leaned heavily on its passing game all season, while Arnold (Panama City Beach) — in its first year as a program — has quickly built one of the more balanced profiles in the region.

Quarterback Brooke Reid has thrown for 2,856 yards and 34 touchdowns, spreading the ball across a deep receiving group led by Rheyna Hilton , who has 965 yards and 14 touchdowns. Emma Cramm and Emma Elwell add consistent production underneath.

Arnold counters with balance. Quarterback Madison Humphrey has thrown for 1,016 yards and 15 touchdowns, while Kendall Sears and Jerrica Hughes combine for over 1,000 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Defensively, the Marlins have been disruptive with 34 interceptions, led by Emma Crelling and Hughes.

Yulee can push the pace, but Arnold’s ability to create turnovers and control the game on the ground gives it the edge.

FPRI Projection: Arnold (Panama City Beach) 22, Yulee 15 Win Probability: Arnold 74.8% | Yulee 25.2% Forecast: Arnold 7 over Yulee

No. 7 Weeki Wachee (12-3) at No. 2 Hernando (Brooksville) (12-3), 7 PM

This is production vs. efficiency.

Weeki Wachee has one of the most active passing attacks in Class 2A, but Hernando (Brooksville) counters with one of the most efficient offenses in the bracket.

Quarterback Karly Pasmore has thrown for 3,025 yards and 41 touchdowns for Weeki Wachee, with Milana Baltyk leading the receiving corps at 649 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Hornets can move the ball, but turnovers have been an issue.

Hernando answers with balance and depth. Carlie Grant has thrown for 2,423 yards and 38 touchdowns, while Alexis Sway , Kenderlyn Hart , and Ayana Kincade each bring major production in the passing game. Defensively, Sway leads a unit that has created consistent pressure and takeaways.

Weeki Wachee can score, but Hernando’s efficiency — especially in key moments — is the difference, a trend reinforced by two regular-season wins (26-6 on March 12 and 19-6 on April 14).

FPRI Projection: Hernando (Brooksville) 33, Weeki Wachee 17 Win Probability: Hernando 92.5% | Weeki Wachee 7.5% Forecast: Hernando 16 over Weeki Wachee

No. 6 Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) (10-6) at No. 3 Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) (12-5), 7 PM

This is projection vs. profile.

Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) enters with limited available data, while Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) has quietly built one of the more consistent team profiles in South Florida.

Without public stats for either side, this matchup leans heavily on overall performance indicators. Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth)’s 12-5 record and defensive consistency give it a clear edge in the model.

Dillard’s athleticism keeps this from being dismissed, but the lack of measurable production creates uncertainty against a more stable opponent.

FPRI Projection: Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) 26, Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) 12 Win Probability: Dr. Joaquin Garcia 89.9% | Dillard 10.1% Forecast: Dr. Joaquin Garcia 14 over Dillard

FULL REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PICKS

All games Tuesday, April 28

Region 1

No. 8 Menendez (St. Augustine) (5-6) at No. 1 Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) (14-3), 7 PM CT Menendez comes in competitive, but the underlying profile tells a different story. Choctawhatchee's +290 point differential and top-tier SOS (No. 42) separate it quickly against a team sitting outside the top 40 in FPRI.

FPRI Projection: Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) 45, Menendez (St. Augustine) 0 Win Probability: Choctawhatchee 100.0% | Menendez 0.0% Forecast: Choctawhatchee 45 over Menendez

No. 5 Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) (11-1) at No. 4 St. Augustine (12-5), 6 PM This is one of the more interesting profile clashes in the region. Booker T. Washington has the explosive numbers (+247 point differential), but its SOS rank (No. 469) raises questions against a St. Augustine team that has been tested more consistently.

FPRI Projection: St. Augustine 24, Booker T. Washington (Pensacola) 20 Win Probability: St. Augustine 62.9% | Booker T. Washington 37.1% Forecast: St. Augustine 4 over Booker T. Washington

No. 7 Godby (Tallahassee) (9-8) at No. 2 Paxon (Jacksonville) (14-2), 6 PM Godby's near-even point differential (+15) does not translate well here. Paxon has allowed just 89 points all season with a +318 differential, and even against a mid-tier SOS, that defensive consistency is decisive.

FPRI Projection: Paxon (Jacksonville) 47, Godby (Tallahassee) 0 Win Probability: Paxon 100.0% | Godby 0.0% Forecast: Paxon 47 over Godby

No. 6 Yulee (10-6) at No. 3 Arnold (Panama City Beach) (13-3), 7 PM Yulee can throw it, but turnovers and efficiency have been issues against stronger teams. Arnold, even as a first-year program, brings a +222 differential and a defense that has created 30-plus takeaways — enough to control this matchup.

FPRI Projection: Arnold (Panama City Beach) 22, Yulee 15 Win Probability: Arnold 74.8% | Yulee 25.2% Forecast: Arnold 7 over Yulee

Region 2

No. 8 Vanguard (Ocala) (6-5) at No. 1 Deltona (16-0), 7 PM Deltona has been dominant on both sides of the ball, posting a +338 point differential and averaging over 30 points per game. Vanguard's -38 differential highlights the gap.

FPRI Projection: Deltona 53, Vanguard (Ocala) 0 Win Probability: Deltona 100.0% | Vanguard 0.0% Forecast: Deltona 53 over Vanguard

No. 5 New Smyrna Beach (13-5) at No. 4 Nature Coast (Brooksville) (13-4), 7 PM New Smyrna Beach has the record, but Nature Coast's stronger SOS (No. 65) and +164 differential provide a more stable profile. Against comparable teams, that balance matters.

FPRI Projection: Nature Coast (Brooksville) 25, New Smyrna Beach 10 Win Probability: Nature Coast 91.6% | New Smyrna Beach 8.4% Forecast: Nature Coast 15 over New Smyrna Beach

No. 7 Weeki Wachee (12-3) at No. 2 Hernando (Brooksville) (12-3), 7 PM On the surface, this is even — identical records — but the underlying metrics are not. Hernando’s SOS (No. 10) is one of the strongest in the classification, and that experience shows up here.

FPRI Projection: Hernando (Brooksville) 33, Weeki Wachee 17 Win Probability: Hernando 92.5% | Weeki Wachee 7.5% Forecast: Hernando 14 over Weeki Wachee

No. 6 Citrus (Inverness) (11-6) at No. 3 Clay (Green Cove Springs) (13-1), 7 PM Clay has been one of the most dominant defensive teams in Class 2A, allowing just 26 points all season with a +495 differential. Citrus’ +184 mark is solid — but not at this level.

FPRI Projection: Clay (Green Cove Springs) 42, Citrus (Inverness) 15 Win Probability: Clay 98.3% | Citrus 1.7% Forecast: Clay 27 over Citrus

Region 3

No. 8 St. Petersburg (9-6) at No. 1 Robinson (Tampa) (16-1), 7:30 PM Robinson is chasing a 10th straight state championship, and the numbers reflect it — +513 differential and just 89 points allowed. St. Petersburg’s +38 mark is respectable, but not enough here.

FPRI Projection: Robinson (Tampa) 51, St. Petersburg 0 Win Probability: Robinson 100.0% | St. Petersburg 0.0% Forecast: Robinson 51 over St. Petersburg

No. 5 Gateway (Kissimmee) (13-3) at No. 4 Gulf (New Port Richey) (14-3), 7 PM This is one of the few games where the seed line does not match the model. Gateway (Kissimmee)’s +307 differential and higher FPRI rating outweigh Gulf’s stronger record.

FPRI Projection: Gateway (Kissimmee) 29, Gulf (New Port Richey) 22 Win Probability: Gateway 75.6% | Gulf 24.4% Forecast: Gateway 7 over Gulf

No. 7 Northeast (St. Petersburg) (9-9) at No. 2 Osceola (Seminole) (17-1), 7 PM Northeast has flashed but remains inconsistent (+110 differential), while Osceola has been dominant all season (+355) with a profile built on control and consistency. Osceola has already beaten Northeast twice — 21-18 on March 31 and 6-0 in the District 2A-12 final on April 23 — showing it can win both in shootouts and defensive games.

FPRI Projection: Osceola (Seminole) 41, Northeast (St. Petersburg) 4 Win Probability: Osceola 99.6% | Northeast 0.4% Forecast: Osceola 37 over Northeast

No. 6 Freedom (Tampa) (12-3) at No. 3 Countryside (Clearwater) (12-5), 7 PM Freedom’s record is strong, but its SOS rank (No. 379) suggests a softer path. Countryside’s more balanced profile and +230 differential give it control.

FPRI Projection: Countryside (Clearwater) 27, Freedom (Tampa) 15 Win Probability: Countryside 86.3% | Freedom 13.7% Forecast: Countryside 12 over Freedom

Region 4

No. 8 Estero (8-3) vs. No. 1 Miami Northwestern (14-2), 6 PM Estero has been efficient, but Miami Northwestern’s +307 differential and stronger overall profile create a clear separation.

FPRI Projection: Miami Northwestern 41, Estero 0 Win Probability: Miami Northwestern 99.9% | Estero 0.1% Forecast: Miami Northwestern 41 over Estero

No. 5 Jensen Beach (9-8) at No. 4 Bishop Verot (Fort Myers) (13-1), 6 PM Jensen Beach has played a strong schedule (SOS No. 37), but Bishop Verot’s +235 differential and defensive consistency make the difference.

FPRI Projection: Bishop Verot (Fort Myers) 32, Jensen Beach 8 Win Probability: Bishop Verot 97.6% | Jensen Beach 2.4% Forecast: Bishop Verot 24 over Jensen Beach

No. 7 Suncoast (Riviera Beach) (8-5) at No. 2 Bonita Springs (18-0), 7 PM Bonita Springs is undefeated, but more importantly, dominant — +468 differential while allowing just 31 points. Even with a lower SOS, that level of control holds.

FPRI Projection: Bonita Springs 38, Suncoast (Riviera Beach) 4 Win Probability: Bonita Springs 99.7% | Suncoast 0.3% Forecast: Bonita Springs 38 over Suncoast

No. 6 Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) (10-6) at No. 3 Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) (12-5), 7 PM Both teams lack full stat visibility, but Dr. Joaquin Garcia’s +231 differential and steadier profile give it the edge over a Dillard team that has been more volatile.

FPRI Projection: Dr. Joaquin Garcia (Lake Worth) 26, Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) 12 Win Probability: Dr. Joaquin Garcia 89.9% | Dillard 10.1% Forecast: Dr. Joaquin Garcia 14 over Dillard

FINAL TAKE

Class 2A has a clear top tier.

It also has a dangerous middle.

The favorites — Robinson (Tampa) , Miami Northwestern , Deltona , and Clay (Green Cove Springs) — should handle business.

But several matchups sit right on the edge of disruption.

And in this bracket, one result is enough to shift the path to Tampa.

FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 2A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Robinson sets the standard — the margins behind it don’t, and the numbers show where Class 2A can crack

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FLAG FOOTBALL: Class 2A Regional Quarterfinals — FPRI Picks, Games to Watch, Upset Alerts and the Road to Tampa

Robinson sets the standard — the margins behind it don’t, and the numbers show where Class 2A can crack

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