COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: How the Florida Power Rankings Index works for the 2026 season

FloridaHSFootball.com is introducing a rebuilt version of the Florida Power Rankings Index for the 2026-27 school year.

Known as the FPRI, the system will serve as the foundation for statewide rankings, classification rankings, regional rankings, strength-of-schedule analysis, weekly game forecasts and postseason probabilities throughout the tackle football and girls flag football seasons.

The latest version represents four years of development and incorporates lessons learned from the 2025 tackle football season and the spring 2026 girls flag football season.

It is designed to do more than place teams in order.

The FPRI will evaluate schedules, compare programs across classifications, forecast individual games and track district, playoff and championship races as each season develops.

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Continuing a tradition of statewide rankings and forecasts

Development of the FPRI began following the passing of longtime rankings expert Joe Pinkos, whose forecasts and power rankings appeared on FloridaHSFootball.com for many years.

Pinkos helped establish the value of combining statewide rankings with weekly game forecasts. His work gave readers more than a list of teams by also providing a way to compare matchups throughout Florida.

The FPRI continues that broader tradition while operating as FloridaHSFootball.com’s own proprietary system.

It is not a recreation of Pinkos’ formula. The system has been developed independently to evaluate the modern Florida high school football landscape, which includes hundreds of programs competing across multiple classifications, associations and independent groupings.

Entering the 2026-27 school year, FloridaHSFootball.com is unveiling the Enhanced Florida Power Rankings Index, a complete rebuild shaped by what was learned during the past tackle and girls flag football seasons.

After that introduction, the system will simply be referred to as the FPRI.

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What the FPRI evaluates

The FPRI evaluates teams through a collection of performance-based factors rather than relying solely on wins and losses.

The broad areas considered include:

• Game results
• Scoring performance
• Opponent quality
• Strength of schedule
• Recent form
• Current-season performance
• Available historical performance
• Sport-specific scoring and scheduling patterns

The rankings are not a standings table.

Two teams with identical records can carry significantly different ratings depending on the quality of their opponents, the competitiveness of their games and their complete bodies of work.

A victory over a highly rated opponent can provide more value than a win over a struggling program. A competitive loss against one of Florida’s strongest teams can also be evaluated differently than a loss to a lower-rated opponent.

One result does not tell the entire story.

The FPRI examines how every result fits into the team’s overall résumé and continues reassessing that résumé as additional games are completed.

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Why strength of schedule matters

Strength of schedule is a central part of the FPRI.

A team’s record cannot be evaluated without considering the competition that produced it. A 9-1 record against a difficult schedule may represent something different from the same record against a collection of lower-rated opponents.

The system evaluates the quality of each opponent and continues updating that evaluation throughout the season.

That means an early result can gain or lose context later.

A victory can become more valuable if the defeated opponent goes on to have a strong season. A result that initially appeared significant can carry less weight if that opponent struggles afterward.

The same principle applies to losses.

Losing to a highly rated team is not evaluated the same way as losing to an opponent rated considerably lower. The opponent, score and overall performance all contribute to the result’s place within the rating.

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The preseason rankings establish a starting point

Every team needs an initial rating before current-season results are available.

The preseason FPRI establishes that starting point by evaluating multiple seasons of available program information and broader performance indicators.

The preseason order is not simply a copy of the final 2025 rankings.

A team may begin higher or lower than where it finished last season based on its larger recent performance profile, schedule quality, scoring results and available historical information.

That is why a program coming off a difficult season may still move upward during the preseason reset when its previous performance provides a stronger foundation.

The reverse can also occur.

A team may have posted an outstanding 2025 record but move lower when its broader profile, including the previous season and strength of schedule, is considered.

The preseason ranking provides context. It does not permanently define the team.

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Preseason influence will gradually fall away

The preseason component will not maintain the same influence throughout the season.

As 2026 games are completed, current-season performance will receive more weight while the preseason influence gradually declines.

Early in the season, the preseason foundation helps prevent the ratings from overreacting to a single unusual result. One game should not completely redefine a team when only a small sample of current-season information exists.

As more games are played, the FPRI gains a larger collection of current results and relies less on the preseason starting point.

By the later stages of the regular season, the ratings will be driven primarily by what teams have accomplished during the 2026 season, including:

• Current game results
• Scoring performance
• Opponent quality
• Strength of schedule
• Recent form
• The complete current-season résumé

No team is locked into its preseason position.

A program beginning outside the Top 100 can move upward by consistently performing well against quality competition. A highly rated team can fall if its results no longer support its starting placement.

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Recent performance will matter

The FPRI considers the complete season, but it also accounts for recent form.

That allows the rankings to recognize when a team is improving or declining as the year develops.

A program that struggles early but begins producing stronger results later should not be evaluated exactly the same as a team trending in the opposite direction.

Recent-form weighting does not erase earlier games. Instead, it provides additional context for how a team is performing as it approaches district play, playoff qualification races and the postseason.

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How postseason games are evaluated

FHSAA playoff games, Florida Invitational Tournament games and association postseason games are included as part of each team’s complete body of work.

A team does not receive an automatic rating bonus simply for reaching a specific round.

The value of a postseason run depends on factors such as:

• Opponent quality
• Competitiveness of the games
• Scoring performance
• Strength of schedule
• The team’s complete season résumé

A regional finalist can move lower during the following preseason reset if its larger performance profile does not support its previous position.

A team with a losing record can still receive value from competing against strong opponents or producing meaningful postseason results.

The FPRI evaluates the games themselves rather than assigning value solely from labels such as district champion, regional finalist or state semifinalist.

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Tackle football and girls flag football

Tackle football and girls flag football use the same underlying mathematical foundation, but the two sports are not treated as identical.

Each has different scoring environments, scheduling structures and postseason formats.

The FPRI uses sport-specific adjustments designed to account for those differences while maintaining a consistent statewide framework.

Tackle football rankings will update weekly during the fall season.

Girls flag football rankings will update daily during the spring season as results are entered and verified.

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What the FPRI will produce

The FPRI will power a larger collection of rankings, forecasts and analytical products throughout the year.

Those products will include:

• Statewide rankings
• Classification rankings
• Regional rankings
• Strength-of-schedule ratings
• Weekly game forecasts
• Win probabilities
• Projected final scores
• District championship probabilities
• Playoff qualification probabilities
• FHSAA Open Division qualification probabilities
• Classification championship probabilities
• Open Division championship probabilities
• Playoff bracket projections
• Prediction accuracy reports
• Advanced statistical breakdowns
• Weekly written previews and analysis

The ratings will also be incorporated directly into FloridaHSFootball.com’s Top 100 team previews.

Each preview will compare the team’s final 2025 FPRI position with its 2026 preseason rating while using opponent ratings to examine the schedule, district race and postseason path.

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Rankings and weekly quick picks will remain free

All statewide, classification and regional FPRI rankings will be available free to readers.

No account or subscription will be required to view the rankings.

FloridaHSFootball.com will also publish a free weekly forecast identifying the team favored to win each game.

Those quick picks will provide a straightforward look at which team the FPRI favors without placing the primary rankings or projected winners behind a paywall.

The permanent rankings page is available at:

The Florida Power Rankings Index – Rankings

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What Season Ticket subscribers receive

Season Ticket subscribers will receive the complete predictive layer built around the FPRI.

That includes:

• Exact win probabilities
• Projected final scores
• District championship probabilities
• Playoff qualification probabilities
• Open Division qualification probabilities
• Classification championship probabilities
• Open Division championship probabilities
• Week-over-week probability tracking
• Playoff bracket projections
• Prediction accuracy reports
• Advanced statistical breakdowns
• Weekly written previews and analysis

Season Ticket membership is available for $59.99 per year or $7.99 per month.

Get Season Ticket:
https://floridahsfootball.com/seasonticket/

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How forecasts should be interpreted

No ranking or forecasting system can guarantee the result of a high school football game.

The FPRI provides probabilities and projections using the information available at the time.

Unexpected results will happen.

Injuries, player availability, weather, travel, turnovers, coaching decisions and other game-day factors can influence an outcome in ways no mathematical model can completely anticipate.

A team carrying a 70% win probability is favored, but the opponent still has a realistic opportunity to win. The number represents relative likelihood, not certainty.

Projected scores should be interpreted the same way. They represent an expected result produced by the system, not a guaranteed final score.

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Forecast accuracy will be tracked

FloridaHSFootball.com will track the performance of FPRI forecasts throughout the season.

Accuracy reports will examine areas such as:

• Straight-up winners
• Projected scores
• Win probabilities
• Performance by classification
• Performance by week
• Changes as the season develops

Publicly tracking the results creates accountability and provides measurable information that can guide future improvements.

The FPRI will continue evolving as additional seasons of verified results become available.

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An independent analytical product

The FPRI is an independent analytical product created by FloridaHSFootball.com.

It is not an official ranking produced by the Florida High School Athletic Association, Sunshine State Athletic Association or MaxPreps.

That distinction is especially important when discussing the FHSAA Open Division.

FloridaHSFootball.com’s Open Division probabilities will project each team’s likelihood of qualifying based on available results and the developing postseason race.

Those projections will not determine which teams officially qualify.

The FHSAA’s official selection process and any ranking source designated by the association remain separate from the FPRI.

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Why the complete formula will remain private

FloridaHSFootball.com will explain the broad factors influencing the FPRI, but the complete internal formula will remain proprietary.

That includes the exact:

• Weights
• Rating scales
• Adjustments
• Floors
• Benchmarks
• Probability calibration
• Sport-specific calculations

Publishing the complete formula would make it easier for others to copy the system and would limit FloridaHSFootball.com’s ability to continue refining it.

Readers will still be able to evaluate its performance through the published rankings, forecasts, probabilities and accuracy reports.

The results will provide the clearest measurement of how well the system performs.

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The Top 100 preview series

FloridaHSFootball.com’s Countdown to Kickoff Top 100 begins Thursday with the reveal of No. 100.

Each ranked team will receive a complete preseason scouting report rather than a short ranking capsule.

The previews will include:

• Head coach and district information
• 2024 and 2025 records
• 2025 final FPRI rating and statewide rank
• 2026 preseason rating and statewide rank
• 2026 classification rank
• 2025 playoff or FIT finish
• Schedule overview and complete schedule
• Average opponent rating
• Combined opponent record and win percentage
• Key departures
• Returning players to watch
• Toughest opponents
• District breakdown
• Playoff outlook
• Schedule difficulty rating
• Projected season range

Each preview will be organized around four areas:

1st Down — The Gauntlet

The most difficult portion of the schedule and the challenges the team must solve during that stretch.

2nd Down — Strength of Schedule

An evaluation of the complete schedule and how it could help or hurt the team’s development, ranking and postseason résumé.

3rd Down — The Proving Ground

The swing games and defining matchups most likely to determine the direction of the season.

4th Down — Playoff Picture

The district race, automatic qualification path, wildcard possibilities and broader postseason outlook.

Each preview will conclude with a season outlook examining the team’s realistic record range, ceiling, potential floor and the primary factors that will determine whether it meets its preseason expectations.

The countdown begins with No. 100 and continues in order toward the No. 1 team in Florida.

The preseason ratings provide the starting point.

What happens next will be determined on the field.