COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: FPRI projections for every 2026 Class 1A district and playoff region

The Class 1A race begins with 12 districts spread across four regions, but the preseason picture varies considerably across the classification. Several districts feature overwhelming favorites, others present legitimate two-team races, and a handful include multiple programs with realistic postseason paths.

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 1A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 1A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Districts 1A-2, 1A-6 and 1A-11 begin with overwhelming projected favorites, while Districts 1A-3, 1A-9 and 1A-10 present considerably more competitive races. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 1A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

Class 1A uses a 32-team playoff field divided into four eight-team regions. Each district contributes its champion, with the remaining positions filled through the regional at-large process.

The projected qualifiers are seeded by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. District champions may be seeded below at-large teams, and seeding does not automatically determine the host because a district champion hosts an at-large opponent regardless of seed. If a region has fewer than eight eligible qualifiers, the highest seeds without a lower-seeded opponent receive first-round byes.

The official qualifiers, seeds, regional placement and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings. The FPRI bracket is designed only to provide a preseason picture of how the regional fields could take shape.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 1A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 12 Class 1A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions along with polls for each district in which you can choose vote on who you think might win their district in 2026.

All Polls close at 11:59 PM EDT on Sunday, August 16, 2026.

Poll Disclaimer

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District 1A-1

Blountstown holds a commanding advantage, with Baker established as the clear second team in the district. Port St. Joe and Holmes County form a more competitive middle tier in the broader postseason race.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Blountstown	8-2	85.1%	99.0%	5.8%
Baker	7-3	11.1%	92.7%	2.6%
Port St. Joe	5-5	2.3%	49.1%	0.6%
Holmes County (Bonifay)	5-5	1.4%	40.7%	0.4%
Northview (Century)	3-7	0.1%	15.6%	0.0%

Blountstown owns a decisive advantage in the district race, extending a five-year stretch without a losing season and building on its 12-1 state runner-up finish in 2025. Baker remains the only substantial challenger after an 11-1 regional final season. Port St. Joe and Holmes County are closely grouped behind the leading pair, while Northview faces the steepest climb after three consecutive losing seasons.

Blountstown and Baker carry the district’s strongest postseason positions at 99.0% and 92.7%, respectively. Port St. Joe sits near the playoff bubble at 49.1%, with Holmes County still within range at 40.7%, while Northview has a considerably narrower path. Blountstown leads the district’s statewide championship outlook at 5.8%, with Baker providing a secondary possibility at 2.6%.

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District 1A-2

Chipley holds an overwhelming advantage, leaving North Florida Christian and Marianna in a much tighter race behind the favorite. FAMU DRS faces significant separation from the rest of the district.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Chipley	7-3	93.4%	99.0%	2.9%
North Florida Christian (Tallahassee)	4-6	3.7%	28.0%	0.1%
Marianna	4-6	2.8%	24.8%	0.1%
FAMU DRS (Tallahassee)	1-9	0.1%	6.8%	0.0%

Chipley owns nearly the entire district championship probability after five consecutive winning seasons and a 2025 regional semifinal appearance. North Florida Christian and Marianna share 4-6 projections, although Marianna’s mark would represent a rebound from last season’s 1-9 finish. FAMU DRS faces the steepest climb after five consecutive losing seasons.

Chipley’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district one dominant postseason position. North Florida Christian holds a narrow edge over Marianna for the next-best path, but both remain below 30%, while FAMU DRS has a considerably smaller opening at 6.8%. Chipley also carries the district’s only notable statewide championship probability at 2.9%.

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District 1A-3

Madison County holds the edge, but Taylor County remains a credible challenger in one of the region’s stronger three-team districts. Fort White is separated in the district-title race but carries a meaningful postseason path.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Madison County (Madison)	8-2	58.4%	99.0%	4.8%
Taylor County (Perry)	7-3	34.1%	99.0%	4.0%
Fort White	6-4	7.5%	74.7%	1.6%

Madison County is the projected favorite, but Taylor County’s 34.1% district championship probability keeps the race competitive. Madison County’s 8-2 projection represents a rebound from its 6-6 finish, while Taylor County remains near the level of its 10-2 season. Fort White faces more separation from the leading pair, though its 6-4 projection continues a five-year stretch without a losing record.

Madison County and Taylor County share 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district two of the classification’s strongest postseason positions. Fort White also carries a substantial path at 74.7% after winning the 2025 FIT Rural championship. Madison County leads the statewide championship outlook at 4.8%, narrowly ahead of Taylor County at 4.0%, while Fort White adds a smaller possibility at 1.6%.

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District 1A-4

Hawthorne remains the clear favorite, but Chiefland and Williston give the district exceptional depth behind the leader. All three carry 8-2 projections or better and enter the season with 99.0% playoff probabilities.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Hawthorne	9-1	84.9%	99.0%	9.0%
Chiefland	8-2	10.6%	99.0%	5.3%
Williston	8-2	4.4%	99.0%	4.0%

Hawthorne owns a decisive advantage in the district race after five consecutive double-digit-win seasons and the 2025 state championship. Chiefland remains the primary challenger following an 11-2 state semifinal run, while Williston’s matching 8-2 projection continues a four-year stretch of winning records. The district-title probabilities show clear separation, but the projected records reflect strength across the entire field.

All three teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities after reaching at least the regional final last season. Hawthorne leads the statewide championship outlook at 9.0%, while Chiefland’s 5.3% and Williston’s 4.0% figures give District 1A-4 three meaningful Class 1A title possibilities.

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District 1A-5

Trinity Christian holds the advantage, but University Christian remains a credible challenger in a district with two strong postseason positions. Impact Christian sits in a separate middle tier, while North Florida Educational faces a steeper path.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Trinity Christian (Jacksonville)	8-2	68.6%	99.0%	5.4%
University Christian (Jacksonville)	7-3	25.4%	99.0%	3.8%
Impact Christian (Jacksonville)	6-4	5.4%	59.9%	1.2%
North Florida Educational (Jacksonville)	4-6	0.6%	26.7%	0.1%

Trinity Christian is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons, including a 9-5 state semifinal campaign in 2025. University Christian’s 25.4% district championship probability keeps the race competitive following its 9-4 regional final appearance. Impact Christian remains within the broader district picture, while North Florida Educational faces the steepest climb despite improving to 6-5 last season.

Trinity Christian and University Christian share 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district two of its strongest postseason positions. Impact Christian also carries a realistic path at 59.9% after reaching the regional semifinals in 2025, while North Florida Educational remains further back at 26.7%. Trinity Christian leads the statewide championship outlook at 5.4%, with University Christian providing a second meaningful possibility at 3.8%.

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District 1A-6

Melbourne Central Catholic holds an overwhelming advantage in a district with substantial separation between the favorite and the rest of the field. Wildwood and Father Lopez are closely grouped behind it but face much narrower postseason paths.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Melbourne Central Catholic	6-4	98.2%	99.0%	2.6%
Wildwood	3-7	1.1%	15.2%	0.0%
Father Lopez (Daytona Beach)	2-8	0.7%	12.6%	0.0%

Melbourne Central Catholic controls nearly the entire district championship probability despite a projected 6-4 record. The projection calls for a rebound from its 3-7 finish in 2025, when it still reached the regional semifinals. Wildwood is projected to improve from 2-10, while Father Lopez faces a step back from last season’s 6-5 finish.

Melbourne Central Catholic’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district one dominant postseason position. Wildwood and Father Lopez remain well behind at 15.2% and 12.6%, respectively, despite both participating in the postseason last year. Melbourne Central Catholic also holds the district’s only measurable statewide championship probability at 2.6%.

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District 1A-7

Lakeland Christian holds a commanding advantage, with Victory Christian established as the primary challenger. Fort Meade sits near the center of the postseason race, while Moore Haven and McLaughlin face progressively steeper paths.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Lakeland Christian	8-2	83.4%	99.0%	5.3%
Victory Christian (Lakeland)	7-3	11.0%	75.6%	1.9%
Fort Meade	6-4	4.2%	51.8%	0.8%
Moore Haven	5-5	1.5%	34.2%	0.3%
McLaughlin (Lake Wales)	1-9	0.0%	6.7%	0.0%

Lakeland Christian owns a decisive district-title edge, and its 8-2 projection continues a five-year run without a losing record. Victory Christian remains the only substantial challenger, with its projected 7-3 finish representing an improvement from last season’s 6-6 mark. Fort Meade occupies a distinct third tier, Moore Haven projects at .500, and McLaughlin faces the steepest climb after going 1-8 in 2025.

Lakeland Christian’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district its strongest postseason position. Victory Christian carries a substantial path at 75.6%, while Fort Meade sits just above the playoff bubble at 51.8% and Moore Haven remains within range at 34.2%. Lakeland Christian leads the district’s statewide championship outlook at 5.3%, with Victory Christian providing a smaller secondary possibility at 1.9%.

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District 1A-8

Carrollwood Day holds a commanding advantage, with St. Petersburg Catholic established as the clear second team in the district. Northside Christian sits near the center of the postseason race, while Zephyrhills Christian faces a much steeper path.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Carrollwood Day (Tampa)	9-1	88.9%	99.0%	7.7%
St. Petersburg Catholic	7-3	9.8%	99.0%	3.9%
Northside Christian (St. Petersburg)	6-4	1.2%	51.5%	0.8%
Zephyrhills Christian	3-7	0.1%	17.0%	0.0%

Carrollwood Day owns a decisive district-title edge, and its 9-1 projection follows a 12-1 state semifinal season in 2025. St. Petersburg Catholic remains the only substantial challenger after also finishing 12-1 and reaching the regional final last season. Northside Christian occupies a separate third tier, while Zephyrhills Christian faces the steepest climb despite improving from 1-9 in 2024 to 4-6 in 2025.

Carrollwood Day and St. Petersburg Catholic share 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district two of its strongest postseason positions. Northside Christian sits just above the playoff bubble at 51.5% after reaching the regional quarterfinals last season, while Zephyrhills Christian remains further back at 17.0%. Carrollwood Day leads the district’s statewide championship outlook at 7.7%, with St. Petersburg Catholic providing a second meaningful possibility at 3.9%.

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District 1A-9

Community School holds the edge, but St. John Neumann remains a credible challenger in a competitive two-team race. First Baptist is separated from the leading pair in both the district and postseason outlook.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Community School (Naples)	8-2	65.8%	99.0%	3.9%
St. John Neumann (Naples)	7-3	33.1%	92.1%	2.8%
First Baptist (Naples)	4-6	1.0%	23.3%	0.1%

Community School is the projected favorite, with an 8-2 record that closely follows its 8-3 finish in 2025. St. John Neumann remains firmly in the race after going 8-4 last season, giving the district two programs with recent winning results and regional semifinal appearances. First Baptist faces a substantial gap, though its 4-6 projection represents a modest rebound from last year’s 2-8 finish.

Community School and St. John Neumann carry the district’s strongest postseason positions at 99.0% and 92.1%, respectively. First Baptist has a considerably narrower path at 23.3%. Community School leads the statewide championship outlook at 3.9%, with St. John Neumann close behind at 2.8%, giving District 1A-9 two meaningful Class 1A title possibilities.

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District 1A-10

Pahokee holds the edge, but John Carroll remains a credible challenger in a competitive district race. Benjamin adds a strong third postseason position, while Somerset Prep is separated sharply from the top three.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Pahokee	8-2	55.7%	99.0%	4.1%
John Carroll (Fort Pierce)	7-3	35.8%	99.0%	3.4%
Benjamin (Palm Beach Gardens)	6-4	8.5%	99.0%	1.8%
Somerset Prep (North Lauderdale)	2-8	0.1%	26.3%	0.0%

Pahokee is the projected favorite, but John Carroll’s 35.8% district championship probability keeps the race competitive. Pahokee’s 8-2 projection continues a five-year run without a losing season after reaching the state semifinals in 2025. John Carroll has posted winning records in four of the past five seasons, while Benjamin’s 6-4 projection calls for a rebound from last year’s 3-8 finish. Somerset Prep faces the steepest climb after consecutive two-win seasons.

Pahokee, John Carroll and Benjamin each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district three of the classification’s strongest postseason positions. Somerset Prep remains further back at 26.3%. Pahokee leads the statewide championship outlook at 4.1%, narrowly ahead of John Carroll at 3.4%, while Benjamin provides an additional possibility at 1.8%.

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District 1A-11

True North holds nearly complete control of the district race, leaving BridgePrep Village Green with a steep climb. The separation extends into the broader postseason outlook, where True North carries one of the classification’s strongest positions.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
True North (Miami)	8-2	99.9%	99.0%	5.6%
BridgePrep Village Green (Miami)	2-8	0.1%	26.7%	0.0%

True North is the overwhelming projected favorite, with its 8-2 projection continuing a five-year stretch without a losing record after reaching the regional final in 2025. BridgePrep Village Green is projected to improve from last season’s 1-6 finish, but the gap between the two programs remains substantial.

True North’s 99.0% playoff probability gives the district one dominant postseason position. BridgePrep Village Green has a narrower but measurable path at 26.7%. True North also carries the district’s only statewide championship probability at 5.6%, making it the lone meaningful Class 1A title possibility in the field.

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District 1A-12

Archbishop Carroll holds the advantage, but Palmer Trinity remains a credible challenger in a competitive two-team race. Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead is separated sharply from the leading pair.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	1A State Championship Probability
Archbishop Carroll (Miami)	6-4	71.4%	99.0%	1.9%
Palmer Trinity (Miami)	5-5	28.4%	92.6%	1.1%
Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead	1-9	0.2%	16.2%	0.0%

Archbishop Carroll is the projected favorite, though Palmer Trinity’s 28.4% district championship probability keeps the race competitive. Archbishop Carroll’s 6-4 projection represents a slight step back from its 7-3-1 finish in 2025, while Palmer Trinity projects closer to .500 after going 7-3 last season. Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead faces the steepest climb with a third consecutive one-win season projected.

Archbishop Carroll and Palmer Trinity carry the district’s strongest postseason positions at 99.0% and 92.6%, respectively. Somerset Academy Charter South Homestead has a considerably narrower path at 16.2%. Archbishop Carroll leads the statewide championship outlook at 1.9%, with Palmer Trinity providing a smaller secondary possibility at 1.1%.

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The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

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Projected Playoff Field