COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: FPRI projections for every 2026 Class 3A district and playoff region

The Class 3A race begins with 16 districts spread across four regions, but the preseason picture varies sharply from one part of the state to another. Several districts feature overwhelming favorites, a handful present legitimate two-team races, and others are defined as much by the fight for postseason position as by the championship itself.

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the pursuit of the championship and the broader fight to reach the postseason.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 3A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 3A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Raines, Cardinal Mooney, Glades Central, Miami Central and Jefferson begin with commanding district advantages, while District 3A-15 presents an almost even race between Dillard and Cardinal Gibbons. Districts 3A-5, 3A-6 and 3A-13 also feature credible challengers capable of keeping those races unsettled.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 3A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to seeding and hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then seeds each regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate one possible bracket. The official playoff field, seeds and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 3A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 3A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

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District 3A-1

Bay holds a clear edge in a district where the next three teams are much more tightly grouped. The projection builds on Bay’s 9-2 finish in 2025, while West Florida and South Walton lead the pursuit behind the favorite.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Bay (Panama City)	7-3	68.4%	89.3%	2.6%
West Florida (Pensacola)	6-4	14.1%	47.4%	0.7%
South Walton (Santa Rosa Beach)	5-5	11.1%	42.9%	0.5%
Pine Forest (Pensacola)	5-5	5.9%	33.0%	0.3%
Pensacola	2-8	0.4%	12.0%	0.0%

Bay is the projected favorite by a wide margin, with its 68.4% district championship probability exceeding the combined figure of its three closest challengers. West Florida and South Walton form the most credible second tier after both reached regional semifinals in 2025. Pine Forest’s 5-5 projection would represent a rebound from 3-7, while Pensacola faces the steepest climb after a 1-9 season.

Bay’s 89.3% playoff probability gives it the district’s strongest overall postseason position and follows a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. West Florida and South Walton remain viable postseason candidates even without winning the district, while Pine Forest sits farther toward the bubble. Bay also owns the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 2.6%, leaving the district with one modest state-title possibility rather than a group of prominent contenders.

VOTE

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District 3A-2

Godby carries a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage over a closely matched pair of challengers. Wakulla and Baker County are separated by fewer than 2 percentage points in the district race, giving the favorite little room for a significant stumble.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Godby (Tallahassee)	6-4	56.3%	81.6%	2.1%
Wakulla (Crawfordville)	6-4	21.9%	54.8%	0.9%
Baker County (Glen St. Mary)	6-4	20.3%	53.0%	0.8%
Suwannee (Live Oak)	3-7	1.5%	18.3%	0.0%

Godby is the projected favorite, with a 56.3% district championship probability and a rebound to 6-4 after finishing 5-7 in 2025. Wakulla and Baker County form an almost even second tier, and both are projected at 6-4 after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. Suwannee faces a steep climb, although its 3-7 projection would improve upon last season’s 1-9 finish.

Godby owns the district’s strongest postseason position at 81.6% after advancing to a regional semifinal in 2025. Wakulla and Baker County also have realistic playoff paths beyond the district-title race, with both probabilities sitting above 50%. Godby’s 2.1% statewide 3A championship probability leads the group, but the district projects as having one modest title possibility rather than a major state favorite.

VOTE

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District 3A-3

Raines is the overwhelming projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons capped by a 14-0 state championship run in 2025. Bishop Kenny remains a strong overall team, but the district-title probability gap leaves little ambiguity at the top.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Raines (Jacksonville)	9-1	98.9%	99.0%	6.2%
Bishop Kenny (Jacksonville)	8-2	1.1%	99.0%	4.7%
Terry Parker (Jacksonville)	3-7	0.0%	12.7%	0.0%

Raines holds a commanding edge in the district race, with Bishop Kenny positioned as the only credible challenger despite the wide separation between them. The projection continues Raines’ rise from 10 wins in 2023 to 13 in 2024 and 14 in 2025. Bishop Kenny’s 8-2 projection also fits a program that has posted consecutive nine-win seasons, while Terry Parker faces a steep climb after finishing 2-7 last year.

Raines and Bishop Kenny each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two exceptionally strong postseason positions despite the one-sided district race. Raines owns the highest statewide 3A championship probability at 6.2%, narrowly ahead of Bishop Kenny at 4.7%, after the teams finished as the 2025 state champion and regional finalist, respectively. Their classification-title figures reflect only the traditional 3A championship path and are narrower than their broader postseason outlooks.

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District 3A-4

Palatka owns a decisive advantage in a district with clear separation between each tier. Menendez is the primary challenger, but the championship probabilities position Palatka well ahead of the rest of the field.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Palatka	6-4	79.9%	88.3%	1.4%
Menendez (St. Augustine)	4-6	17.0%	37.5%	0.2%
Wolfson (Jacksonville)	3-7	2.9%	16.1%	0.0%
Westside (Jacksonville)	1-9	0.2%	5.6%	0.0%

Palatka is the clear projected favorite and has posted at least six victories in four consecutive seasons despite finishing 6-7 in 2025. Menendez’s 4-6 projection would represent a modest improvement from last season’s 3-7 record, but it remains well behind Palatka in the district race. Wolfson faces a steeper climb, while Westside’s projected victory would end a winless 2025 season.

Palatka’s 88.3% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position after the program reached the 2025 FIT semifinals. Menendez remains within range of the broader playoff race, while Wolfson and Westside carry substantially smaller paths. Palatka also leads the district with a 1.4% statewide 3A championship probability, leaving the group without a prominent state-title favorite.

VOTE

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District 3A-5

Eastside and Dunnellon form the district’s clear top tier, with both projected at 7-3. Eastside holds the advantage, but Dunnellon’s 38.6% district championship probability keeps this among Class 3A’s more competitive races.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Eastside (Gainesville)	7-3	55.4%	81.0%	2.8%
Dunnellon	7-3	38.6%	69.5%	2.1%
Santa Fe (Alachua)	4-6	4.3%	26.3%	0.3%
North Marion (Citra)	4-6	1.4%	16.4%	0.1%
Belleview	2-8	0.3%	8.8%	0.0%

Eastside is the projected favorite after four consecutive winning seasons, including a 9-3 finish and regional semifinal appearance in 2025. Dunnellon remains a credible challenger after finishing 8-6 and winning the 2025 FIT 1A-3A championship. The separation becomes substantial after the top two, with Santa Fe and North Marion projected at 4-6 and Belleview facing the steepest climb.

Eastside carries the district’s strongest playoff probability at 81.0%, while Dunnellon’s 69.5% figure gives the district two realistic postseason paths. Santa Fe is farther toward the bubble despite improving from four consecutive one-win-or-fewer seasons to 7-4 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Eastside also leads the statewide 3A championship outlook at 2.8%, narrowly ahead of Dunnellon’s 2.1%, giving the district two smaller title possibilities rather than one dominant contender.nt statewide contender.

VOTE

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District 3A-6

The Villages holds the early advantage, but South Sumter and Tavares give the district three credible contenders. The projected favorite leads South Sumter by 31 percentage points, creating separation without turning the race into a runaway.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
The Villages	7-3	58.1%	82.4%	2.8%
South Sumter (Bushnell)	7-3	27.1%	59.3%	1.5%
Tavares	6-4	14.7%	45.0%	0.9%
Eustis	2-8	0.1%	5.4%	0.0%

The Villages is the projected favorite after improving from 5-5 in 2024 to 9-2 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. South Sumter and Tavares also reached regional quarterfinals last season, and their projections keep both within the district race. Eustis faces substantial separation from the top three, although a 2-8 projection would represent a small step forward after consecutive 1-9 finishes.

The Villages owns the district’s strongest postseason position at 82.4%, while South Sumter also has a realistic path beyond the district championship race. Tavares sits closer to the playoff bubble at 45.0%, and Eustis has little margin for error. The Villages leads the district with a 2.8% statewide 3A championship probability, followed by smaller possibilities for South Sumter and Tavares.

VOTE

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District 3A-7

Mulberry is the clear projected favorite despite a modest 5-5 record projection. Tenoroc is the only meaningful challenger, while Discovery and Liberty sit well outside the primary district race.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Mulberry	5-5	78.4%	82.6%	0.6%
Tenoroc (Lakeland)	3-7	20.3%	29.7%	0.1%
Discovery (Lake Alfred)	1-9	0.8%	4.5%	0.0%
Liberty (Kissimmee)	1-9	0.5%	3.6%	0.0%

Mulberry’s district advantage is substantial, with its championship probability nearly four times Tenoroc’s. The 5-5 projection represents a rebound from a 4-7 finish in 2025, when Mulberry reached the regional quarterfinals. Tenoroc also finished 4-7 and advanced to the FIT regional semifinals, but its projected decline to 3-7 creates further separation. Discovery and Liberty are each projected to improve from winless seasons, though both face a steep climb.

Mulberry’s 82.6% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position even though its statewide 3A championship probability is only 0.6%. Tenoroc remains a secondary postseason possibility, while Discovery and Liberty carry limited paths. The district projects as more consequential in the regional qualification race than in the statewide championship picture.

VOTE

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District 3A-8

Eau Gallie is the clear projected favorite in a district with several credible teams behind it. Merritt Island and Titusville lead a crowded second tier, but both face substantial separation from the top.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Eau Gallie (Melbourne)	9-1	77.6%	99.0%	6.3%
Merritt Island	7-3	12.0%	63.0%	2.2%
Titusville	7-3	6.7%	50.6%	1.4%
Astronaut (Titusville)	6-4	2.1%	32.8%	0.5%
Rockledge	5-5	1.4%	28.2%	0.4%
Palm Bay (Melbourne)	2-8	0.0%	8.2%	0.0%

Eau Gallie’s 9-1 projection continues a run that includes 10, 12 and nine victories over the past three seasons, along with a regional final appearance in 2025. Merritt Island and Titusville are both projected at 7-3, though Merritt Island holds the stronger district position. Astronaut and Rockledge remain secondary possibilities, while Palm Bay faces the district’s steepest climb.

Eau Gallie carries a 99.0% playoff probability and the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 6.3%. Merritt Island also owns a strong postseason path after reaching a regional semifinal in 2025, while Titusville sits near an even chance after a regional quarterfinal appearance. Astronaut and Rockledge remain within the broader playoff conversation, but the district’s championship outlook is concentrated primarily around Eau Gallie.

VOTE

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District 3A-9

Nature Coast is the clear projected favorite after reaching the regional final and winning 10 games in 2025. Hernando and Weeki Wachee form a tightly grouped second tier, but both face a sizable gap in the district championship race.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Nature Coast (Brooksville)	7-3	78.9%	90.3%	2.7%
Hernando (Brooksville)	5-5	9.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Weeki Wachee	5-5	7.1%	30.5%	0.3%
Crystal River	4-6	4.0%	24.0%	0.1%
Central (Brooksville)	3-7	0.6%	12.0%	0.0%
Citrus (Inverness)	1-9	0.0%	4.4%	0.0%

Nature Coast owns substantial separation at the top, and its 7-3 projection would extend a five-year run without a losing season. Hernando and Weeki Wachee are the closest challengers after each posted seven victories in 2025, although neither reaches a 10% district championship probability. Crystal River sits just behind that pair, while Central and Citrus face the steepest climbs.

Nature Coast’s 90.3% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position following its 2025 regional final appearance. Hernando, Weeki Wachee and Crystal River remain in the broader playoff conversation, but all three sit closer to the bubble than the favorite; Hernando reached a regional quarterfinal and Weeki Wachee advanced to a FIT regional semifinal last season. Nature Coast also leads the district with a 2.7% statewide 3A championship probability, leaving the remaining teams with only limited title paths.

VOTE

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District 3A-10

Jefferson is the overwhelming projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons. Chamberlain is the only credible challenger, but the 83.2-point gap between their district championship probabilities makes this one of Class 3A’s clearest preseason races.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Jefferson (Tampa)	7-3	91.3%	96.1%	2.9%
Chamberlain (Tampa)	5-5	8.1%	31.5%	0.3%
Morgan (Wimauma)	2-8	0.3%	9.3%	0.0%
Robinson (Tampa)	2-8	0.2%	8.2%	0.0%
King (Tampa)	1-9	0.0%	4.6%	0.0%

Jefferson holds commanding separation at the top after going 11-1 in 2024 and 10-2 in 2025. Chamberlain has posted consecutive 7-4 finishes, but its 5-5 projection places it well behind the favorite. Morgan and Robinson are projected at 2-8, while King faces the steepest climb at 1-9.

Jefferson’s 96.1% playoff probability gives the district one strong postseason position after its 2025 regional semifinal appearance. Chamberlain remains a secondary possibility after reaching a regional quarterfinal last season, but the remaining teams carry limited paths. Jefferson also owns the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 2.9%, leaving the group with one modest class-title contender.

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District 3A-11

Tarpon Springs holds a commanding advantage in a district without another team projected above three victories. Gibbs and Dunedin form the closest second tier, but both remain far behind the favorite in the district championship race.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Tarpon Springs	5-5	73.4%	79.8%	0.7%
Gibbs (St. Petersburg)	3-7	10.7%	22.3%	0.0%
Dunedin	3-7	9.0%	20.3%	0.0%
Countryside (Clearwater)	2-8	4.3%	13.7%	0.0%
Seminole (Seminole)	2-8	1.7%	8.7%	0.0%
Anclote (Holiday)	1-9	0.9%	6.7%	0.0%

Tarpon Springs is the clear projected favorite, and a 5-5 finish would represent a rebound from 3-7 in 2025. Gibbs and Dunedin are separated by only 1.7 percentage points in the race for the strongest challenge, with both projected at 3-7. Countryside, Seminole and Anclote remain farther back, although Countryside’s projection would continue its improvement from a winless 2024 season.

Tarpon Springs’ 79.8% playoff probability gives the district its only strong postseason position. Gibbs reached a regional quarterfinal in 2025 but carries a 22.3% probability this season, with Dunedin close behind at 20.3%. Tarpon Springs also owns the district’s only nonzero statewide 3A championship probability, though its 0.7% figure leaves the district without a prominent state-title contender.

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District 3A-12

Cardinal Mooney and Booker share 9-1 projections, but the district championship race is far less balanced than those records suggest. Cardinal Mooney holds an overwhelming probability advantage over a Booker program that has increased its win total in four consecutive seasons.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Cardinal Mooney (Sarasota)	9-1	93.5%	99.0%	8.8%
Booker (Sarasota)	9-1	6.4%	99.0%	6.8%
Southeast (Bradenton)	5-5	0.1%	31.6%	0.4%
Bayshore (Bradenton)	3-7	0.0%	16.6%	0.1%
Braden River (Bradenton)	3-7	0.0%	14.5%	0.0%
Wellen Park (North Port)	2-8	0.0%	9.0%	0.0%

Cardinal Mooney is the clear projected favorite after three consecutive 12-win seasons and a 14-1 state championship finish in 2025. Booker remains the district’s strongest challenger after progressing from 1-8 in 2021 to 12-2 and a state semifinal appearance last season, but the model creates substantial separation between the top two. Southeast’s 5-5 projection represents a step back from 8-2, while Bayshore, Braden River and Wellen Park face steeper climbs.

Cardinal Mooney and Booker each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two of Class 3A’s strongest overall postseason positions. Southeast sits closer to the playoff bubble, while the remaining three teams have narrower paths. Cardinal Mooney leads the statewide 3A championship outlook at 8.8%, followed by Booker at 6.8%; those classification-title figures reflect only the traditional 3A championship path and are narrower than the teams’ broader postseason outlooks.

VOTE

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District 3A-13

Bishop Verot is the projected favorite, but Lely gives the district a credible second contender. Cypress Lake remains within striking distance of the postseason race, while Island Coast sits well behind the top three.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Bishop Verot (Fort Myers)	8-2	69.8%	99.0%	5.0%
Lely (Naples)	7-3	22.2%	74.8%	2.5%
Cypress Lake (Fort Myers)	6-4	7.9%	50.7%	1.1%
Island Coast (Cape Coral)	2-8	0.1%	8.7%	0.0%

Bishop Verot owns the clearest path to the district championship, though its 8-2 projection would represent a sharp rebound from a 5-7 finish in 2025. Lely has increased its win total in each of the past two seasons and remains the strongest challenger after an 8-4 campaign. Cypress Lake’s 6-4 projection largely continues its recent improvement, while Island Coast faces the steepest climb after finishing 1-8.

Bishop Verot carries a 99.0% playoff probability after reaching a regional semifinal in 2025. Lely also holds a strong postseason position following its own regional semifinal appearance, while Cypress Lake sits almost directly on the playoff bubble after advancing to a regional quarterfinal. Bishop Verot leads the district with a 5.0% statewide 3A championship probability, with Lely and Cypress Lake offering smaller secondary possibilities.

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District 3A-14

Glades Central is the overwhelming projected favorite in a two-team district. Boynton Beach faces a 97-point gap in district championship probability, leaving little uncertainty in the preseason outlook.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Glades Central (Belle Glade)	8-2	98.5%	99.0%	4.9%
Boynton Beach	4-6	1.5%	23.1%	0.2%

Glades Central’s 8-2 projection continues its recent return to winning form after going 9-2 in 2024 and 10-2 in 2025. Boynton Beach is projected to slip below .500 after consecutive 5-5 seasons, and the model gives it only a narrow district-title path.

Glades Central carries a 99.0% playoff probability after reaching a regional semifinal in 2025, giving the district one exceptionally strong postseason position. Boynton Beach’s 23.1% probability leaves it farther from the playoff field. Glades Central also owns the district’s strongest statewide 3A championship probability at 4.9%, while Boynton Beach remains a much smaller title possibility.

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District 3A-15

Dillard and Cardinal Gibbons create an almost even district race, with identical 8-2 projections and fewer than 4 percentage points separating their championship probabilities. Stranahan sits far behind a top tier that is clearly defined.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Dillard (Fort Lauderdale)	8-2	51.9%	99.0%	5.0%
Cardinal Gibbons (Fort Lauderdale)	8-2	48.0%	99.0%	4.9%
Stranahan (Fort Lauderdale)	3-7	0.1%	10.0%	0.0%

Dillard holds the narrowest of projected edges after rebounding from 5-6 in 2023 to nine wins in 2024 and 10 in 2025. Cardinal Gibbons is a credible co-favorite after reaching a state semifinal during a 10-4 season, and its five-year record includes winning finishes every year. Stranahan’s 3-7 projection would improve slightly upon last season’s 2-8 finish, but the district championship gap remains substantial.

Dillard and Cardinal Gibbons each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two exceptionally strong postseason positions. Their statewide 3A championship probabilities are nearly identical, with Dillard holding a 5.0% to 4.9% edge, while Stranahan has a much narrower postseason path. The statewide outlook reflects a district with two legitimate secondary title possibilities rather than one dominant Class 3A favorite.

VOTE

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District 3A-16

Miami Central is the overwhelming projected favorite, holding more than 96 percentage points of separation over the rest of the district. Key West leads a compressed chase group, but the race for first carries little preseason ambiguity.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	3A State Championship Probability
Miami Central	9-1	97.9%	99.0%	8.7%
Key West	6-4	1.5%	49.8%	1.2%
North Miami Beach	5-5	0.4%	31.2%	0.4%
St. Brendan (Miami)	4-6	0.1%	20.1%	0.1%
Miami Springs	4-6	0.1%	16.1%	0.1%
Miami Jackson	2-8	0.0%	9.5%	0.0%

Miami Central’s 9-1 projection continues a five-year stretch without an on-field losing season. The Rockets went 8-1 during the 2024 regular season before forfeiting all nine games, then finished 10-2 in 2025. Key West is the clearest alternative after consecutive winning seasons, while North Miami Beach’s 5-5 projection would represent improvement from last year’s 6-7 finish. St. Brendan and Miami Springs occupy the next tier, with Miami Jackson projected to rebound from a winless season.

Miami Central carries a 99.0% playoff probability after reaching the 2025 regional final and owns the district’s highest statewide 3A championship probability at 8.7%. Key West sits directly on the playoff bubble after a regional semifinal appearance, while North Miami Beach remains a secondary possibility following its FIT runner-up finish. Miami Central’s classification championship probability reflects only the traditional 3A title path and is narrower than its broader postseason outlook.

VOTE

The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

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Projected Playoff Field