COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: FPRI projections for every 2026 Class 4A district and playoff region

The Class 4A race begins with 16 districts spread across four regions, and much of the preseason picture is defined by significant separation at the top. Several districts feature overwhelming favorites, while a smaller group presents credible two- or three-team races that could remain unsettled well into the regular season.

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each eight-team regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 4A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 4A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Miami Northwestern, St. Augustine, Choctawhatchee, Jesuit, American Heritage, Vanguard and Naples begin with commanding advantages in their districts. Races such as District 4A-2 between Mosley and Lincoln, District 4A-3 between Columbia and Ed White, and District 4A-13 involving Jensen Beach, Heritage and Fort Pierce Westwood present considerably more competition. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 4A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

That distinction also applies to seeding and hosting. The model identifies projected district champions and at-large qualifiers, then orders each regional field by FPRI rating to illustrate one possible bracket. The official qualifiers, seeds, regional placement and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 4A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 16 Class 4A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

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District 4A-1

Choctawhatchee holds the clearest advantage in the district, with a 95% championship probability separating it sharply from the rest of the field. The projection follows three consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 2025 state semifinal appearance.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach)	8-2	95.0%	99.0%	4.2%
Escambia (Pensacola)	5-5	2.1%	21.9%	0.2%
Milton	5-5	1.9%	20.8%	0.2%
Booker T. Washington (Pensacola)	4-6	0.6%	13.0%	0.1%
Fort Walton Beach	3-7	0.3%	9.6%	0.0%
Gulf Breeze	1-9	0.0%	3.5%	0.0%

The real competition sits behind the projected favorite. Escambia and Milton are nearly even for second, although their recent paths differ: Escambia’s projection represents a rebound from a 3-7 finish, while Milton’s 5-5 mark would be a step back from its 7-4 season and 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Booker T. Washington remains within reach of that middle tier, while Fort Walton Beach and Gulf Breeze face steeper climbs based on both the model and recent results.

Choctawhatchee is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its most meaningful statewide 4A championship contender. Escambia and Milton retain modest playoff paths despite limited district-title probabilities, while Booker T. Washington sits further toward the bubble after reaching the regional quarterfinals in 2025. The remaining teams carry single-digit playoff probabilities and no significant statewide championship position.

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District 4A-2

Mosley and Lincoln form the district’s clear top tier, with Mosley holding a 20-point advantage in championship probability. Mosley’s position follows a 10-2 season and regional semifinal appearance, while Lincoln remains a credible challenger despite slipping to 6-5 in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Mosley (Lynn Haven)	8-2	56.1%	84.6%	2.9%
Lincoln (Tallahassee)	8-2	36.1%	71.1%	2.1%
Chiles (Tallahassee)	6-4	4.3%	27.3%	0.3%
Rickards (Tallahassee)	5-5	1.6%	17.8%	0.1%
Arnold (Panama City Beach)	4-6	1.6%	17.8%	0.1%
Leon (Tallahassee)	3-7	0.3%	8.5%	0.0%

The district race is concentrated around Mosley and Lincoln rather than spread across the full field. Chiles projects as the strongest team outside that pairing, though its championship probability remains well behind the leaders after an 8-5 season and FIT semifinal appearance. Rickards and Arnold carry identical district probabilities despite different projected records, while Leon faces the steepest climb.

Mosley and Lincoln both have strong postseason positions and account for nearly all of the district’s meaningful statewide 4A championship probability. Chiles has a more plausible playoff path than its district-title probability suggests, while Rickards and Arnold sit closer to the postseason bubble despite both reaching regional quarterfinals in 2025. Leon’s single-digit playoff probability leaves little margin for outperforming the projection.

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District 4A-3

Columbia and Ed White sit at the center of a competitive two-team race, with only 12.5 percentage points separating their district championship probabilities. Both reached the regional semifinals in 2025, giving the projected matchup a strong recent postseason foundation.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Columbia (Lake City)	7-3	50.9%	77.1%	2.2%
Ed White (Jacksonville)	7-3	38.4%	68.0%	1.7%
Yulee	6-4	9.0%	33.9%	0.5%
Riverside (Jacksonville)	4-6	1.6%	15.4%	0.1%
Ribault (Jacksonville)	2-8	0.1%	4.7%	0.0%

Columbia owns the narrow edge, but Ed White’s consecutive seasons of eight or more wins support its position as a credible challenger. Yulee sits alone in the next tier after rebounding from 2-8 in 2024 to 8-3 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Riverside’s projection represents improvement from a 2-8 finish, while Ribault faces the widest separation from the district leaders.

The model gives Columbia and Ed White clear postseason paths and the district’s only notable statewide 4A championship possibilities. Yulee’s playoff probability is considerably stronger than its district-title probability, leaving a realistic route beyond winning the district. Riverside remains on the edge of the postseason picture, while Ribault carries little projected margin.

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District 4A-4

St. Augustine is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 96.9% district championship probability while no other team reaches 2%. That separation follows three consecutive seasons with at least 11 victories and a 2025 regional final appearance.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
St. Augustine	9-1	96.9%	99.0%	6.6%
Fleming Island	7-3	1.7%	41.3%	0.9%
Middleburg	7-3	1.4%	38.5%	0.8%
Orange Park	3-7	0.0%	10.2%	0.0%
Clay (Green Cove Springs)	3-7	0.0%	8.6%	0.0%
Ridgeview (Orange Park)	1-9	0.0%	4.3%	0.0%

The model leaves little uncertainty at the top, but Fleming Island and Middleburg are closely matched in the next tier. Middleburg’s projection continues a recent rise from 7-4 in 2024 to 8-3 and a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025, while Fleming Island is projected to improve from 6-4. Orange Park, Clay and Ridgeview face steep climbs, with each separated significantly from the district’s top three.

St. Augustine is the district’s only near-certain postseason team and its strongest statewide 4A championship contender. Its overall postseason position is stronger than its classification championship probability alone suggests. Fleming Island and Middleburg have credible playoff paths despite minimal district-title probabilities, while Orange Park, Clay and Ridgeview remain on the outer edge of the postseason picture.

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District 4A-5

Vanguard stands well apart from the field, with a 93.8% district championship probability and no challenger above 3%. The projection extends a run of five consecutive winning seasons that included a 10-3 finish and regional semifinal appearance in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Vanguard (Ocala)	9-1	93.8%	98.5%	4.3%
Lecanto	6-4	2.6%	23.5%	0.2%
Mount Dora	5-5	1.6%	19.3%	0.2%
Leesburg	5-5	1.2%	17.6%	0.1%
Lake Weir (Ocala)	4-6	0.4%	12.0%	0.0%
Gainesville	3-7	0.3%	11.0%	0.0%

The more competitive portion of the district sits behind Vanguard. Lecanto has a narrow edge over Mount Dora and Leesburg, with its 6-4 projection representing modest improvement after consecutive 6-5 seasons. Mount Dora receives a rebound projection after falling from three consecutive winning seasons to 2-8 in 2025, while Leesburg remains close to its recent 5-5 finish. Lake Weir and Gainesville face the steepest climb.

Vanguard is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its lone meaningful statewide 4A championship possibility. Lecanto, Mount Dora and Leesburg have playoff probabilities that substantially exceed their district-title chances, but each remains below 25%. Lake Weir and Gainesville sit near the outer edge of the postseason picture, leaving the district’s broader outlook heavily dependent on Vanguard.

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District 4A-6

Bishop Moore holds a commanding position at the top, with an 89.7% district championship probability and a wide gap over New Smyrna Beach. The projection extends a four-year run of winning seasons that culminated in a 12-2 record and state semifinal appearance in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Bishop Moore (Orlando)	9-1	89.7%	98.3%	4.6%
New Smyrna Beach	7-3	8.3%	41.4%	0.9%
Winter Springs	4-6	0.8%	16.4%	0.1%
Deltona	4-6	0.7%	15.9%	0.1%
Seabreeze (Daytona Beach)	4-6	0.5%	14.3%	0.1%

Bishop Moore is the clear projected favorite, while New Smyrna Beach occupies a distinct second tier after consecutive 8-3 seasons and a 2025 regional quarterfinal appearance. Winter Springs, Deltona and Seabreeze are tightly grouped in the lower half of the district, with identical projected records and only three-tenths of a percentage point separating their championship probabilities. Deltona’s projection continues its gradual recovery from a 1-9 finish in 2023, while Seabreeze’s 4-6 mark would be a slight step back from 5-5.

Bishop Moore is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. New Smyrna Beach has a credible playoff path despite its limited district-title probability, while Winter Springs and Deltona remain closer to the postseason bubble after both reached regional quarterfinals in 2025. Seabreeze carries a similar playoff probability but little projected statewide championship position.

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District 4A-7

Jones and Lake Wales give the district two projected nine-win teams, but Jones holds a commanding 84.1% district championship probability. The favorite has recorded at least 10 wins in five consecutive seasons and finished as the Class 4A state runner-up in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Jones (Orlando)	9-1	84.1%	99.0%	6.8%
Lake Wales	9-1	15.9%	92.6%	4.7%
Lake Region (Eagle Lake)	3-7	0.0%	8.7%	0.0%
Kathleen (Lakeland)	2-8	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%
Brandon	1-9	0.0%	3.1%	0.0%

Jones owns the clear edge, but Lake Wales remains a credible challenger after a 10-3 season and regional final appearance in 2025. The separation becomes severe beyond the top two: Lake Region is projected to fall from 5-5 to 3-7, while Kathleen and Brandon remain aligned with their recent losing records.

Jones and Lake Wales are both strong postseason favorites and account for all of the district’s meaningful statewide 4A championship probability. Their overall postseason positions are stronger than their classification championship probabilities alone suggest. Lake Region, Kathleen and Brandon carry single-digit playoff probabilities, leaving the district’s postseason outlook concentrated almost entirely around its two leaders.

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District 4A-8

Zephyrhills holds a decisive advantage, with an 85.6% district championship probability and no challenger above 7%. The projection follows an 11-1 season and regional semifinalist finish in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Zephyrhills	9-1	85.6%	96.7%	4.3%
River Ridge (New Port Richey)	7-3	7.0%	36.9%	0.7%
Springstead (Spring Hill)	7-3	5.7%	34.0%	0.6%
Gulf (New Port Richey)	5-5	1.0%	17.4%	0.1%
Fivay (Hudson)	4-6	0.4%	12.5%	0.0%
Hudson	4-6	0.2%	9.5%	0.0%
Pasco (Dade City)	2-8	0.0%	4.6%	0.0%

Zephyrhills is the clear projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons. River Ridge and Springstead form a closely matched second tier, although Springstead’s 7-3 projection represents a rebound from 4-5 in 2025. Gulf sits between that pairing and a lower group led by Fivay and Hudson, while Pasco faces the steepest climb after three losing seasons in the past four years.

Zephyrhills is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. River Ridge and Springstead have playoff probabilities that are substantially stronger than their district-title chances, giving both credible postseason paths. Gulf and Fivay sit closer to the bubble, while Hudson’s outlook is more limited despite finishing as an FIT regional finalist in 2025. Pasco carries little projected postseason margin.

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District 4A-9

Jesuit is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 94.4% district championship probability while no challenger reaches 4%. The projection follows an 11-2 season and regional final appearance in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Jesuit (Tampa)	9-1	94.4%	99.0%	4.5%
East Bay (Gibsonton)	6-4	3.1%	33.6%	0.4%
Blake (Tampa)	6-4	2.2%	29.0%	0.3%
Hillsborough (Tampa)	3-7	0.2%	11.3%	0.0%
Freedom (Tampa)	2-8	0.0%	5.9%	0.0%
Middleton (Tampa)	2-8	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%

The competition behind Jesuit is centered on East Bay and Blake, which share 6-4 projections and are separated by less than one percentage point in district championship probability. Blake’s projection matches its seven-win 2025 season and regional quarterfinal appearance, while East Bay is projected to improve from 5-5. Hillsborough receives a modest rebound projection after consecutive losing seasons, while Freedom and Middleton remain aligned with their 2-8 finishes from 2025.

Jesuit is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. East Bay and Blake have playoff probabilities that are considerably stronger than their district-title chances, giving both plausible postseason paths. Hillsborough sits near the outer edge of the playoff picture, while Freedom and Middleton carry limited projected postseason margin.

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District 4A-10

Clearwater holds a commanding advantage, with an 82.4% district championship probability and no challenger reaching 10%. The projection builds on an 8-4 season and regional semifinal appearance in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Clearwater	8-2	82.4%	96.3%	3.2%
Pinellas Park (Largo)	6-4	8.4%	38.0%	0.5%
Osceola (Seminole)	6-4	4.5%	28.7%	0.3%
St. Petersburg	5-5	3.5%	25.9%	0.2%
Northeast (St. Petersburg)	4-6	1.2%	16.2%	0.1%
Hollins (St. Petersburg)	1-9	0.0%	3.2%	0.0%

Clearwater is the clear projected favorite, while Pinellas Park, Osceola and St. Petersburg form the more competitive second tier. Pinellas Park receives a rebound projection after finishing 5-6 in 2025, while Osceola’s 6-4 mark remains close to its recent form following a 7-4 season and regional quarterfinal appearance. St. Petersburg’s projected return to .500 would represent a sharp response to its 2-7 finish, while Northeast and Hollins face steeper climbs.

Clearwater is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. Pinellas Park, Osceola and St. Petersburg each have playoff probabilities considerably stronger than their district-title chances, although none reaches 40%. Northeast remains near the outer edge of the postseason picture, while Hollins carries little projected margin.

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District 4A-11

Port Charlotte is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 90.6% district championship probability while no challenger reaches 5%. The projection extends a steady rise from 5-4 in 2021 to an 11-3 season and state semifinal appearance in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Port Charlotte	9-1	90.6%	99.0%	5.1%
Dunbar (Fort Myers)	7-3	4.7%	46.8%	0.9%
South Fort Myers	7-3	4.0%	44.2%	0.8%
Fort Myers	5-5	0.6%	20.4%	0.1%
Mariner (Cape Coral)	3-7	0.1%	8.1%	0.0%

The more competitive race is for second, where Dunbar and South Fort Myers share 7-3 projections and are separated by less than one percentage point in district championship probability. Both reached the regional quarterfinals in 2025, while Dunbar’s projection would continue a five-year run of winning seasons. Fort Myers receives a rebound projection after falling to 3-7, while Mariner remains well behind the district’s top three.

Port Charlotte is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. Dunbar and South Fort Myers have playoff probabilities far stronger than their district-title chances, leaving both with credible postseason paths. Fort Myers sits closer to the playoff bubble, while Mariner carries a single-digit probability and little projected statewide championship position.

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District 4A-12

Naples is the overwhelming projected favorite, carrying a 92.8% district championship probability while no challenger reaches 4%. The model’s 8-2 projection continues a five-year run of winning seasons after Naples finished 7-4-1 and reached the regional semifinals in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Naples	8-2	92.8%	99.0%	3.7%
Estero	6-4	3.5%	28.2%	0.3%
Gulf Coast (Naples)	5-5	2.4%	23.6%	0.2%
Barron Collier (Naples)	4-6	1.0%	16.6%	0.1%
Golden Gate (Naples)	3-7	0.1%	7.5%	0.0%
Aubrey Rogers (Naples)	2-8	0.1%	6.7%	0.0%

The race behind Naples is more compressed. Estero holds a narrow edge over Gulf Coast after both reached the regional quarterfinals in 2025, while Barron Collier remains within the next tier despite a second consecutive losing season. Golden Gate’s projection represents a modest improvement from consecutive 4-6 finishes, while Aubrey Rogers remains aligned with its 2-8 record from 2025.

Naples is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and its leading statewide 4A championship contender. Estero and Gulf Coast have playoff probabilities significantly stronger than their district-title chances, but both remain below 30%. Barron Collier sits near the outer edge of the postseason picture, while Golden Gate and Aubrey Rogers carry single-digit playoff probabilities.

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District 4A-13

Jensen Beach is the projected favorite, but Heritage and Fort Pierce Westwood keep the district from becoming a one-team race. Jensen Beach holds a 64.3% district championship probability, with the two leading challengers combining for another 33.3%.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Jensen Beach	7-3	64.3%	78.5%	1.7%
Heritage (Palm Bay)	6-4	20.5%	43.5%	0.6%
Fort Pierce Westwood	6-4	12.8%	35.0%	0.4%
Sebastian River (Sebastian)	4-6	1.7%	16.0%	0.0%
Legacy (Port St. Lucie)	3-7	0.6%	11.4%	0.0%
Port St. Lucie	1-9	0.1%	6.7%	0.0%

Jensen Beach’s projection continues a run of four consecutive winning seasons and follows an 8-3 finish with a regional quarterfinal appearance in 2025. Heritage receives a rebound projection after finishing 4-7 despite also reaching the regional quarterfinals, while Fort Pierce Westwood remains a credible challenger after going 7-6 and advancing to an FIT semifinal. Sebastian River, Legacy and Port St. Lucie face a sizable gap from the top three.

Jensen Beach owns the district’s strongest postseason position and its best statewide 4A championship probability. Heritage and Fort Pierce Westwood both have playoff probabilities notably higher than their district-title chances, giving the district multiple realistic postseason paths. Sebastian River and Legacy sit closer to the outer edge of contention, while Port St. Lucie carries a limited outlook after a winless 2025 season.

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District 4A-14

Atlantic is the projected favorite, but Plantation gives the district a credible second contender. Atlantic holds an 84% district championship probability after consecutive double-digit-win seasons, while Plantation follows a 7-5 finish and regional semifinal appearance in 2025.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Atlantic (Delray Beach)	9-1	84.0%	97.7%	5.3%
Plantation	8-2	15.3%	60.7%	2.0%
Blanche Ely (Pompano Beach)	5-5	0.7%	23.3%	0.2%
Northeast (Oakland Park)	1-9	0.0%	3.0%	0.0%

Atlantic owns the clear edge after going 10-2 and reaching the regional semifinals in 2025, but Plantation remains a meaningful challenger with a projected 8-2 record. Blanche Ely receives a rebound projection after falling from three consecutive winning seasons to 2-7, while Northeast faces a steep climb following four straight losing records.

Atlantic has the district’s strongest postseason position and its leading statewide 4A championship probability. Its overall postseason outlook is stronger than its classification championship probability alone suggests. Plantation also carries a realistic playoff path despite the gap in the district race, while Blanche Ely sits closer to the postseason bubble and Northeast has little projected margin.

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District 4A-15

American Heritage is the clear projected favorite, carrying a 93.6% district championship probability after winning the Class 4A state title in 2025. Miami Norland stands as the primary challenger, but the gap between the top two remains substantial.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
American Heritage (Plantation)	9-1	93.6%	99.0%	6.4%
Miami Norland	8-2	5.6%	76.0%	3.6%
McArthur (Hollywood)	7-3	0.4%	37.0%	0.7%
Miramar	6-4	0.3%	33.2%	0.6%

American Heritage’s position reflects sustained success, including double-digit wins in three consecutive seasons before its 9-4 championship run in 2025. Miami Norland receives a strong rebound projection after falling to 6-6 and exiting in the regional semifinals. McArthur’s 7-3 projection follows a sharp rise from 2-8 to 10-3, while Miramar is projected to recover from a 4-7 season.

All four teams retain meaningful postseason paths, although American Heritage and Miami Norland are the only strong playoff favorites. McArthur and Miramar have playoff probabilities far exceeding their district-title chances, placing both in the broader postseason conversation. American Heritage owns the district’s strongest statewide 4A championship probability, though its classification-title figure reflects only the traditional class-title path.

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District 4A-16

Miami Northwestern is the most decisive district favorite in Class 4A, carrying a 99.6% championship probability. The projection follows consecutive seasons with at least 12 victories and a 2025 state runner-up finish.

School	Projected Record	District Championship Probability	Playoff Probability	4A State Championship Probability
Miami Northwestern	9-1	99.6%	99.0%	6.2%
Hialeah	7-3	0.3%	32.5%	0.5%
North Miami	6-4	0.1%	27.1%	0.3%
American (Hialeah)	3-7	0.0%	14.0%	0.0%

The model leaves virtually no separation to debate at the top. Hialeah and North Miami form the second tier after both finished 7-4 and reached regional quarterfinals in 2025, although neither carries a meaningful district-title probability. American’s 3-7 projection represents a slight step back from its 4-6 finish.

Miami Northwestern is the district’s only strong postseason favorite and owns its leading statewide 4A championship probability. Its overall postseason position is stronger than its traditional classification-title probability alone suggests. Hialeah and North Miami retain modest playoff paths despite the district gap, while American sits near the outer edge of the postseason picture.

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The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

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Projected Playoff Field