COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: FPRI projections for every 2026 Class 2A district and playoff region

The Class 2A race begins with 10 districts spread across four regions, but the preseason picture varies considerably from one part of the state to another. Several districts feature commanding favorites, others present legitimate two-team battles, and District 2A-6 offers one of the classification’s deepest groups of postseason candidates.

Winning the district secures an automatic place in the FHSAA playoffs. The remaining positions in each regional field are filled through the at-large process, creating two connected races inside every district: the fight for the championship and the broader pursuit of a postseason berth.

The Florida Power Rankings Index provides an independent preseason model of how those races could develop. Each district section includes a standardized 10-game record projection, district championship probability, overall playoff probability and Class 2A state championship probability.

The projected records are not game-by-game schedule predictions. They represent the level at which each program is expected to perform across a standard 10-game regular season based on its preseason FPRI rating and recent results.

District championship probability measures each team’s chance of securing its district’s automatic playoff berth. Playoff probability includes both the district-title route and the possibility of qualifying as an at-large team. Class 2A state championship probability measures each team’s chance of winning the classification title.

The numbers show separation rather than certainty. Bolles, Pensacola Catholic, Immaculata-La Salle and Bradford begin with commanding advantages in their districts, while the races between Cocoa and The First Academy, Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna, and the leading teams in Districts 2A-6, 2A-8 and 2A-10 feature considerably less separation. A probability above 50% establishes a projected favorite, but it does not settle the race before a game is played.

MaxPreps is the FHSAA’s official rankings source for playoff qualification, seeding and regional placement. The projected bracket included here is not an official FHSAA bracket or a prediction of the final MaxPreps rankings. It is an educated preseason estimate of what the Class 2A field and first-round matchups could look like if teams perform near their current FPRI projections.

Class 2A uses a 32-team playoff field divided into four eight-team regions. Each district contributes its champion, with the remaining positions filled through the regional at-large process.

The projected qualifiers are seeded by FPRI rating to illustrate a possible bracket. District champions may be seeded below at-large teams, and seeding does not automatically determine the host because a district champion hosts an at-large opponent regardless of seed. If a region has fewer than eight eligible qualifiers, the highest seeds without a lower-seeded opponent receive first-round byes.

The official qualifiers, seeds, regional placement and matchups will ultimately be determined through the FHSAA process using the MaxPreps rankings. The FPRI bracket is designed only to provide a preseason picture of how the regional fields could take shape.

These projections will change as results replace preseason expectations. District races will tighten or separate, at-large positions will shift and the regional picture will become clearer throughout the season.

The Open Division is not included in the district tables or the Class 2A bracket projection. That statewide eight-team field draws programs from all six FHSAA classifications and will be covered separately.

Below is the complete preseason outlook for all 10 Class 2A districts, followed by an FPRI-modeled playoff bracket for each of the classification’s four regions.

District 2A-1

Pensacola Catholic stands as the overwhelming projected favorite, with Walton and Freeport separated from the leader but still carrying meaningful postseason paths. Destin begins well behind the district’s top three.

Pensacola Catholic carries the district’s clearest edge after four consecutive winning seasons and an 11-2 regional final run in 2025. Walton’s 6-4 projection represents a rebound from last season’s 4-7 finish, while Freeport is projected to remain at 5-5 for a third consecutive season. Destin faces the steepest climb after consecutive one-win seasons.

The postseason race is more competitive than the district championship probabilities suggest. Walton’s 88.3% playoff probability and Freeport’s 70.4% figure give both teams realistic paths into the regional field, while Pensacola Catholic remains firmly positioned at 99.0%. The Crusaders also own the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 5.1%.

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District 2A-2

Florida High and Gadsden County form a defined two-team race, with the Seminoles holding a meaningful but not decisive advantage. Rutherford and North Bay Haven remain well behind the district’s leading pair.

Florida High is the projected favorite, but Gadsden County remains a credible challenger with nearly one-third of the district championship probability. Both teams are projected at 7-3, which would represent a rebound from losing records in 2025. Rutherford and North Bay Haven face much steeper paths into the district race.

Florida High and Gadsden County each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district two strongly positioned postseason candidates. Florida High reached the 2025 regional semifinals, while Gadsden County’s absence from that postseason resulted from its playoff ban rather than the normal qualification process. Florida High holds the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 3.4%, with Gadsden County close behind at 2.6%.

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District 2A-3

Bolles holds an overwhelming advantage in the district championship race, leaving Baldwin and Andrew Jackson focused primarily on the broader postseason picture. KIPP Bold City begins with the steepest path in the district.

Bolles is the clear projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 2025 state runner-up finish. Baldwin’s 6-4 projection remains close to its 7-4 record from last season, but the district-title separation is substantial. Andrew Jackson is projected below .500 for a fourth consecutive season, while KIPP Bold City faces the widest gap after an 0-10 finish in 2025.

The postseason outlook extends beyond the district championship race. Baldwin carries a 72.8% playoff probability after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals, while Andrew Jackson stands at 50.9% following a run to the FIT regional final. Bolles remains the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship contender at 8.2%.

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District 2A-4

Bradford holds a clear advantage in a district with one credible challenger. Newberry remains within the competitive picture, but Trinity Catholic begins well behind the top two.

Bradford is the projected favorite after four consecutive winning seasons and an 11-2 regional final run in 2025. Newberry’s 7-3 projection represents a rebound from last season’s 5-6 finish and establishes it as the primary challenger. Trinity Catholic improved from 2-9 in 2024 to 4-6 in 2025, and the model projects another 4-6 finish.

Bradford carries a 99.0% playoff probability and the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship possibility at 5.5%. Newberry remains in a competitive postseason position at 67.6% after reaching the 2025 regional quarterfinals. Trinity Catholic faces a much narrower path at 10.5%.

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District 2A-5

Cocoa and The First Academy form one of Class 2A’s strongest two-team district races. Cocoa holds the projected edge, but The First Academy remains close enough to make the championship race genuinely competitive.

Cocoa is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons, including an 8-5 finish and state semifinal appearance in 2025. The First Academy remains a credible challenger, with its 8-2 projection representing a rebound from last season’s 5-5 record. Its absence from the past two postseasons resulted from a playoff ban rather than the normal qualification process.

Both teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities and meaningful statewide Class 2A championship possibilities. Cocoa leads the district at 6.8%, but The First Academy remains close behind at 6.0%, giving the district two of the classification’s stronger projected title contenders.

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District 2A-6

Clearwater Central Catholic leads the deepest district in Class 2A, but Lakewood, Calvary Christian and Berkeley Prep all carry credible postseason profiles. The district championship race has a defined favorite without becoming a one-team field.

Clearwater Central Catholic is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons and a 2025 regional final appearance. Lakewood is the primary challenger following an 11-2 season and its own regional final run, while Calvary Christian and Berkeley Prep remain within the competitive tier behind the top two. Berkeley Prep’s 7-3 projection would represent a rebound from consecutive seasons at or near .500, while Tampa Catholic is projected to improve after a 1-9 finish.

The postseason outlook extends well beyond the district championship race. Clearwater Central Catholic carries a 99.0% playoff probability, Lakewood stands at 95.9%, and Calvary Christian and Berkeley Prep remain competitive at 72.4% and 59.1%. Clearwater Central Catholic also owns the strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 6.0%, with Lakewood providing another meaningful possibility at 4.7%.

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District 2A-7

Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna form one of the classification’s strongest district races, with both projected at 9-1 and separated by only 0.1 percentage point in statewide Class 2A championship probability. Cardinal Newman holds the clearer district edge, while Saint Andrew’s remains well behind the leading pair despite a strong projected record.

Cardinal Newman is the projected favorite after five consecutive winning seasons and a 12-3 state championship campaign in 2025. Chaminade-Madonna remains a formidable challenger following its state runner-up finish, creating substantial separation between the district’s top two teams and Saint Andrew’s. The 8-2 projection for Saint Andrew’s closely follows its 9-2 record from last season, but its district championship path remains narrow.

All three teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities, giving the district exceptional postseason depth. Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna stand almost even as statewide Class 2A championship contenders, while Saint Andrew’s remains a smaller but notable possibility at 3.4%.

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District 2A-8

Miami Edison holds the advantage in a competitive three-team district, but Miami Carol City and Booker T. Washington remain within reach. The projected order is clear without creating significant separation across the field.

Miami Edison is the projected favorite, with its 7-3 record representing a step forward after finishing between five and seven wins in each of the past five seasons. Miami Carol City remains the primary challenger after consecutive winning seasons, while Booker T. Washington’s 6-4 projection points toward a rebound from its 3-9 finish in 2025.

Each team carries a 99.0% playoff probability. Edison reached the 2025 regional semifinals, Miami Carol City advanced to the regional quarterfinals and Booker T. Washington reached the FIT semifinals. Edison also owns the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 3.3%, followed by Miami Carol City at 2.4% and Booker T. Washington at 2.0%.

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District 2A-9

Immaculata-La Salle holds a commanding advantage in the district championship race, while Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep are closely grouped behind the favorite. The projected order is clear, but the broader postseason outlook remains strong across all three programs.

Immaculata-La Salle is the clear projected favorite after consecutive double-digit-win seasons and a 12-1 regional final run in 2025. Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep carry identical 6-4 projections and are separated by only 1.3 percentage points in the district championship race. Those projections closely follow their 2025 results.

Immaculata-La Salle, Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep each carry a 99.0% playoff probability, giving the district three strongly positioned postseason candidates. Immaculata-La Salle also owns the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 5.0%, with Ransom Everglades and Gulliver Prep presenting smaller possibilities.

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District 2A-10

Miami Killian holds the projected edge in a district where all three teams retain realistic postseason paths. Somerset Charter remains the primary challenger, while Westminster Christian stays within range despite a narrower district championship probability.

Miami Killian is the projected favorite after rebounding to 8-3 and reaching the regional semifinals in 2025 following three consecutive 3-7 seasons. Somerset Charter carries the same 6-4 projection and remains a credible challenger, while Westminster Christian’s 5-5 mark would represent a step back from its 8-2 finish last season.

All three teams carry 99.0% playoff probabilities. Killian owns the district’s strongest statewide Class 2A championship probability at 1.9%, followed by Somerset Charter at 1.3% and Westminster Christian at 0.9%.

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The complete projected seeds and regional brackets are available below for Season Ticket members.

Projected Playoff Field