NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA POWER 10: Buchholz Holds No. 1 as Columbia, Newberry Make Major Moves

Buchholz remains the team to beat in the North Central Florida Power 10, but Week 3 produces significant movement throughout the rest of the rankings.

The Bobcats hold onto No. 1 following a dominant 49-7 victory over Eastside, while Hawthorne remains No. 2 after shutting out Hernando 38-0.

Columbia climbs into the No. 3 position after defeating previously unbeaten Madison County, while Newberry makes the largest move inside the Power 10, soaring seven positions from No. 15 to No. 8 after stunning perennial state power Cocoa 14-13.

Vanguard also moves into the top five despite a narrow loss against Jesuit, while Williston remains inside the Power 10 after a one-point loss to Paxon.

FPRI Methodology Update

Readers may notice more movement than usual in this week’s FPRI rankings.

After reviewing how the first three weeks of the 2026 season were being reflected in the model, several refinements were made to better balance preseason expectations with actual on-field results.

The changes were applied consistently across the entire statewide dataset and were not made to benefit or penalize individual teams.

The biggest update involves head-to-head results. FPRI now gives stronger recognition to statement wins over teams that entered a game rated significantly higher, but it does so in a controlled way. Rather than automatically transferring the defeated opponent’s full rating to the winner, the system moves the winning team part of the way toward that opponent’s pregame strength.

The model also now considers what happens after that win. A later loss to an elite or higher-rated opponent does not erase the value of an earlier statement victory, while a later loss to a significantly lower-rated opponent can reduce how much of that head-to-head boost remains.

Quality wins were also refined. Instead of using hard rating cutoffs that could create abrupt jumps in bonus value, the quality-win component now uses a smoother scale and gives more consideration to current-season performance when a team has already exceeded its preseason expectation.

A 35-point per-game margin-of-victory cap has also been added to the rating calculation. Actual scores and point differentials remain unchanged in the published statistics, but margins beyond 35 points no longer continue increasing a team’s rating. This helps prevent extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight in the overall formula.

Preseason ratings still remain part of FPRI early in the season because the sample size is small, but that influence continues to decline as more games are played and more 2026 data becomes available.

Because these refinements are being applied to games already played this season, some teams may make larger-than-normal moves in this week’s rankings. That movement is expected as the model adjusts to the stronger body of current-season evidence.

As the season progresses, FPRI should naturally become more stable while remaining responsive to meaningful wins, losses, opponent strength and head-to-head results.

Buchholz Remains No. 1 After Dominating Eastside

Buchholz entered Week 3 atop the North Central Florida rankings and gave the FPRI little reason to move the Bobcats from that position.

Buchholz defeated Eastside 49-7 in an all-Gainesville matchup and remains No. 1 in the region with an 84.18 FPRI rating.

The Bobcats hold a 4.04-point advantage over No. 2 Hawthorne and remain comfortably ahead of the rest of the regional field.

There is an important distinction between Buchholz’s regional standing and its statewide movement this week.

The Bobcats fall five positions in the overall FPRI to No. 14 despite their dominant victory. That does not mean Buchholz performed poorly. Statewide movement can occur when results elsewhere strengthen other teams’ profiles, particularly this week as the methodology refinements are applied across the entire dataset.

Within North Central Florida, however, Buchholz remains firmly entrenched at No. 1.

Week 4 also gives the Bobcats their first district matchup of the season when they travel to Ocala to face West Port.

Hawthorne Continues Rolling at No. 2

Hawthorne remains No. 2 after another overwhelming defensive performance.

The Hornets defeated Hernando 38-0 and carry an 80.14 FPRI rating.

Through the early portion of the season, Hawthorne has continued to produce the type of results expected from one of North Central Florida’s most established programs.

The Hornets remain 4.04 points behind Buchholz but hold only a 0.36-point advantage over Columbia, which means the competition immediately behind the regional leader has tightened considerably.

Hawthorne’s statewide ranking falls six positions to No. 22 despite the shutout, another example of how movement elsewhere in the statewide dataset can affect placement even when a team wins decisively.

But Hawthorne will have an extraordinary opportunity to affect that picture in Week 4.

One of Florida’s biggest games of the week is coming directly to Hawthorne.

Columbia Climbs Into the Top Three

Columbia produces one of North Central Florida’s most meaningful Week 3 victories.

The Tigers defeated Madison County 27-13 at Tiger Stadium and climb one position from No. 4 to No. 3 with a 79.78 FPRI rating.

The regional move is relatively modest.

The statewide movement is anything but.

Columbia climbs 21 positions statewide, moving to No. 23 overall after handing Madison County its first loss.

That rise reflects the significance of the victory. Madison County entered Week 3 as the No. 2 team in the Panhandle after opening the season with dominant wins, giving Columbia a valuable result against an opponent carrying substantial early-season strength.

Columbia is now only 0.36 rating points behind Hawthorne.

That means North Central Florida currently has three teams above 79.00, with Buchholz at 84.18, Hawthorne at 80.14 and Columbia at 79.78.

The gap between Nos. 2 and 3 is virtually nonexistent heading into Week 4.

Bradford Slips to No. 4 Despite Another Dominant Result

Bradford moves one position from No. 3 to No. 4 despite producing one of the largest Week 3 victories in the region.

The Tornadoes defeated Zarephath Academy 56-0 and now carry a 73.61 rating.

Much like Buchholz and Hawthorne, Bradford’s downward movement is not the result of a loss.

Instead, Columbia’s victory over Madison County supplied the Tigers with a major current-season data point that allowed them to move ahead.

Bradford also falls nine positions in the statewide rankings to No. 36.

The Tornadoes remain well established inside the regional top five, but a gap has developed between them and the top three. Columbia leads Bradford by 6.17 rating points.

Week 4 brings a district matchup when Bradford hosts Trinity Catholic.

Vanguard Moves Into the Top Five Despite Loss to Jesuit

One of the more interesting movements in this week’s rankings belongs to Vanguard.

The Knights lost 24-21 to Jesuit in Tampa, yet climb one position from No. 6 to No. 5 in North Central Florida and rise 20 positions statewide to No. 44.

That might initially appear counterintuitive, but it illustrates why opponent strength matters within the FPRI.

Vanguard currently carries a 17.4 strength-of-schedule rating, easily the strongest among the North Central Florida Power 10.

A three-point road loss against a strong Jesuit program provides considerably different information than a decisive loss against a weaker opponent would.

The model does not treat every loss equally.

Vanguard’s 71.46 rating moves the Knights ahead of The Villages and places them inside the regional top five despite the Week 3 defeat.

That position will be tested immediately when Leesburg travels to Booster Stadium for a district matchup in Week 4.

The Villages Wins but Slips to No. 6

The Villages also provides an example of how rankings movement is relative rather than strictly tied to wins and losses.

The Buffalo defeated South Lake 28-21 but fall one position from No. 5 to No. 6.

Their 68.75 rating still represents a strong position within the region, and The Villages actually climbs 11 spots in the statewide rankings to No. 52.

The regional drop occurs because Vanguard’s profile strengthened enough to move ahead.

That distinction is important.

A team can improve its statewide position while simultaneously dropping within its own region if another nearby team gains even more.

The Villages remains 5.37 points ahead of No. 7 Dunnellon, creating a noticeable break between the top six and the bottom portion of the Power 10.

Dunnellon Dominates West Port and Holds No. 7

Dunnellon remains No. 7 after producing one of Week 3’s most lopsided results.

The Tigers defeated West Port 59-0 and now carry a 63.38 FPRI rating.

Because the FPRI now caps margin of victory at 35 points per game, the additional margin beyond that threshold does not continue boosting Dunnellon’s rating.

The published score remains 59-0, but for rating purposes the system does not allow an extreme blowout to continue adding value indefinitely.

That methodology refinement is particularly relevant for results like this one.

Dunnellon sits only 0.28 points ahead of Newberry, meaning its hold on the No. 7 position is suddenly much less secure than it was one week ago.

The Tigers host North Marion in a district matchup in Week 4.

Newberry Rockets Seven Spots After Stunning Cocoa

No team inside the North Central Florida Power 10 makes a bigger move than Newberry.

The Panthers entered Week 3 at No. 15.

Then Cocoa came to Panther Stadium.

Newberry defeated the Tigers 14-13 in one of the most significant results anywhere in Florida during Week 3.

The Panthers respond with a massive rise, climbing seven positions regionally to No. 8 with a 63.10 rating.

Their statewide jump is even more dramatic.

Newberry rises 122 positions, moving all the way to No. 90 in the statewide FPRI.

That is precisely the type of result affected by the refined head-to-head component.

Newberry defeated an opponent that entered the matchup with considerably greater established strength. Rather than simply handing Newberry Cocoa’s rating, the FPRI moves the Panthers part of the way toward the level suggested by that victory while continuing to account for the rest of Newberry’s résumé.

The result also changes the structure of the middle of the regional rankings.

Newberry now sits only 0.28 points behind No. 7 Dunnellon and is 2.27 points ahead of No. 9 Williston.

A team that entered last week well outside the Power 10 is suddenly within striking distance of the top seven.

Williston Holds No. 9 After One-Point Loss

Williston remains No. 9 despite falling 26-25 to Paxon.

The Red Devils carry a 60.83 rating and actually climb 18 positions statewide to No. 106.

Like Vanguard, Williston provides another example of why a simple win-loss reading does not always explain FPRI movement.

The rating evaluates the entire body of available information, including opponent strength, performance relative to expectations and the developing network of results around each opponent.

Williston’s 9.6 strength-of-schedule figure is among the strongest inside the Power 10.

Still, the margin around the Red Devils has changed.

Newberry’s major rise puts the Panthers 2.27 points ahead, while Fort White remains a little more than three points behind.

Week 4 presents a significant challenge when Williston travels to Fort Myers to face Bishop Verot.

Fort White Holds the Final Power 10 Position

Fort White remains No. 10 with a 57.71 rating.

The Indians did not play one of the headline-producing Week 3 games, but their position at the cutoff becomes much more vulnerable because of movement immediately behind them.

South Sumter falls three positions to No. 11 after losing 41-34 in overtime at St. Cloud.

The Raiders now carry a 57.46 rating.

That leaves only 0.25 rating points between Fort White and South Sumter.

Chiefland is also close at No. 12 with a 56.50 rating after defeating Crystal River 49-28.

Only 1.21 points therefore separate No. 10 Fort White from No. 12 Chiefland.

Week 4 gives Fort White a direct opportunity to strengthen its position when the Indians travel to Lake Butler to face Union County.

The Chase Just Outside the Power 10

South Sumter is the first team out at No. 11 with a 57.46 rating, trailing Fort White by only 0.25 points.

The Raiders fall three positions following their 41-34 overtime loss to St. Cloud, but remain within immediate striking distance of the cutoff.

Chiefland holds No. 12 with a 56.50 rating after beating Crystal River 49-28.

Santa Fe climbs one position to No. 13 with a 54.84 rating following a 17-0 shutout of Chatfield (Colo.).

Oak Hall falls three positions to No. 14 despite defeating Seven Rivers Christian 30-23.

Branford drops two positions to No. 15 after losing 27-14 to Bell, while Trenton climbs three spots to No. 16 after defeating Impact Christian 43-8.

Bell follows at No. 17 after its victory over Branford, while Union County climbs three positions to No. 18.

Forest falls three spots to No. 19 despite a 41-0 victory over Trinity Catholic, another example of other teams making larger relative gains around it.

Lafayette rounds out the top 20 after climbing three positions following a 39-12 victory over Hamilton County.

The cutoff is tightest among the first three teams outside the Power 10, but the broader middle of the rankings is also moving rapidly.

Only 6.03 points separate No. 10 Fort White from No. 15 Branford, leaving numerous teams capable of forcing their way upward with a significant result.

Week 4 Spotlight: Miami Northwestern Heads to Hawthorne

There may not be a more intriguing Week 4 game anywhere in North Central Florida than the one taking place Thursday night at Annie Mae Phillips Stadium.

No. 2 Hawthorne hosts Miami Northwestern at 7 p.m.

The matchup gives the Hornets an opportunity to add one of the strongest possible data points to their early-season résumé.

Hawthorne enters with an 80.14 FPRI rating and sits only 0.36 points ahead of Columbia for the No. 2 regional position.

A strong performance against Miami Northwestern could have implications far beyond the regional rankings, particularly as the FPRI increasingly shifts toward current-season results.

Buchholz begins district play Friday night when the No. 1 Bobcats travel to West Port. The matchup puts the regional leader against a Wolf Pack team coming off a difficult loss to Dunnellon.

No. 3 Columbia also opens district competition with a trip to Jacksonville to face Ribault. The Tigers enter after their statement victory over Madison County and have an opportunity to reinforce the momentum that pushed them into the regional top three.

Bradford hosts Trinity Catholic in a district matchup, while Vanguard welcomes Leesburg to Booster Stadium in another district contest.

Dunnellon hosts North Marion, giving the No. 7 Tigers another Marion County matchup one week after shutting out West Port.

Newberry returns home to face Halifax Academy after its breakthrough victory over Cocoa. The challenge for the Panthers now becomes following a major statement win with another strong performance rather than allowing the Cocoa victory to stand alone.

Williston faces one of the region’s more difficult road trips when the Red Devils travel to Fort Myers to take on Bishop Verot.

Fort White travels to Union County in a matchup that could have direct implications near the Power 10 cutoff.

South Sumter hosts East Ridge, Chiefland hosts Lafayette, Oak Hall travels to Branford, Trenton hosts Umatilla and Bell hosts Harvest Community.

Forest welcomes Matanzas in district play, while Lake Weir hosts Mount Dora and Suwannee hosts Palatka.

Santa Fe has an open week.

North Central Florida Is Developing Multiple Tiers

Buchholz remains the regional leader, but the story behind the Bobcats is becoming increasingly interesting.

Hawthorne and Columbia are now separated by only 0.36 points for the No. 2 position.

Bradford remains firmly inside the top four, while Vanguard and The Villages form another strong group directly behind them.

Then comes perhaps the most interesting portion of the rankings.

Only 0.28 points separate Dunnellon and Newberry at Nos. 7 and 8 following Newberry’s stunning victory over Cocoa.

At the cutoff, Fort White holds No. 10 by only 0.25 points over South Sumter, with Chiefland only another 0.96 behind.

Week 3 also provided several examples of why the FPRI cannot be interpreted through record alone.

Vanguard moved upward despite losing by three at Jesuit because of the strength of the opponent and the total body of evidence surrounding the Knights.

Williston remained No. 9 and climbed statewide despite a one-point loss.

Newberry, meanwhile, received significant recognition for beating an opponent that entered the game rated substantially higher.

Those relationships should become more meaningful each week as preseason information continues declining and the 2026 schedule creates an increasingly connected network of results.

Week 4 could accelerate that process.

Hawthorne’s matchup with Miami Northwestern is the obvious headline, but district play beginning for Buchholz, Columbia, Bradford, Vanguard and several others will start adding another layer of meaningful head-to-head information.

The top of North Central Florida is beginning to take shape.

The races immediately behind it remain very much unsettled.

Explore the Complete Florida Power Rankings Index

The North Central Florida Power 10 is part of FloridaHSFootball.com’s Enhanced Florida Power Rankings Index, which ranks all 587 football teams in Florida — 563 11-man teams and 24 8-man teams — while also powering the Florida Power 25, classification rankings and eight regional rankings throughout the season.

As more games are played, current performance and opponent strength will continue replacing preseason information within the ratings.

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