PANHANDLE POWER 10: Mosley Takes Over No. 1 as Godby, Choctawhatchee Make Massive Moves

The Panhandle Power 10 undergoes its biggest reshuffling of the season after a Week 3 filled with meaningful head-to-head results.

Mosley moves three positions to take over the No. 1 spot following its 28-9 victory over Niceville, while Pensacola Catholic falls one place after suffering its first loss.

Godby makes the most dramatic move, climbing 19 positions from No. 23 to No. 4 after defeating Pensacola Catholic. Choctawhatchee rises eight spots after winning at Pace, Blountstown rebounds into the top three, and Bay continues a remarkable climb that has taken the Tornadoes from No. 20 to No. 5 in two weeks.

The bottom half also changes considerably. Madison County and Pace each tumble six positions, Maclay enters the Power 10, and only 0.05 rating points separate No. 10 from No. 11.

FPRI Methodology Update

Readers may notice more movement than usual in this week’s FPRI rankings.

After reviewing how the first three weeks of the 2026 season were being reflected in the model, several refinements were made to better balance preseason expectations with actual on-field results.

The changes were applied consistently across the entire statewide dataset and were not made to benefit or penalize individual teams.

The biggest update involves head-to-head results. FPRI now gives stronger recognition to statement wins over teams that entered a game rated significantly higher, but it does so in a controlled way. Rather than automatically transferring the defeated opponent’s full rating to the winner, the system moves the winning team part of the way toward that opponent’s pregame strength.

The model also now considers what happens after that win. A later loss to an elite or higher-rated opponent does not erase the value of an earlier statement victory, while a later loss to a significantly lower-rated opponent can reduce how much of that head-to-head boost remains.

Quality wins were also refined. Instead of using hard rating cutoffs that could create abrupt jumps in bonus value, the quality-win component now uses a smoother scale and gives more consideration to current-season performance when a team has already exceeded its preseason expectation.

A 35-point per-game margin-of-victory cap has also been added to the rating calculation. Actual scores and point differentials remain unchanged in the published statistics, but margins beyond 35 points no longer continue increasing a team’s rating. This helps prevent extreme blowouts from carrying too much weight in the overall formula.

Preseason ratings still remain part of FPRI early in the season because the sample size is small, but that influence continues to decline as more games are played and more 2026 data becomes available.

Because these refinements are being applied to games already played this season, some teams may make larger-than-normal moves in this week’s rankings. That movement is expected as the model adjusts to the stronger body of current-season evidence.

As the season progresses, FPRI should naturally become more stable while remaining responsive to meaningful wins, losses, opponent strength and head-to-head results.

Mosley Takes Over the Top Spot

Mosley entered Week 3 at No. 4, but the Dolphins had another opportunity to strengthen an already impressive early-season résumé when Niceville came to Tommy Oliver Stadium.

They did exactly that.

Mosley defeated Niceville 28-9 to improve to 3-0 and climbs three positions to No. 1 with a 71.32 FPRI rating.

The Dolphins have now beaten Choctawhatchee, Godby and Niceville. Their first two victories came by a combined three points — 15-13 over Choctawhatchee and 32-31 over Godby — before Mosley produced a much more comfortable result in Week 3.

Those earlier close victories have also gained additional value.

Godby’s subsequent win over Pensacola Catholic strengthens the profile of Mosley’s victory over the Cougars, while Choctawhatchee’s road win at Pace adds additional context to the Dolphins’ opening-week victory over the Indians.

That growing network of results is one reason Mosley’s 3-0 start carries more weight now than it did after the first two weeks.

Pensacola Catholic falls one place to No. 2 with a 69.95 rating, leaving only 1.37 points between the region’s top two teams.

Pensacola Catholic Remains Close Despite First Loss

Pensacola Catholic owned the biggest headline of Week 2 after defeating Pace 51-33 and taking over the No. 1 ranking.

One week later, Godby changed the conversation.

The Cougars defeated Pensacola Catholic 21-10 at Gene Cox Stadium, handing the Crusaders their first loss of the season and dropping them one position to No. 2.

Still, Pensacola Catholic does not fall far.

The Crusaders already own victories over Milton and Pace, and the victory over Pace remains meaningful even after the Patriots’ Week 3 loss because of the strength of Pace’s overall rating and schedule.

At 69.95, Pensacola Catholic remains nearly three points ahead of No. 3 Blountstown and within striking distance of Mosley.

The early-season picture at the top therefore looks less like one dominant team pulling away and more like a developing group whose head-to-head results will continue to matter as the season progresses.

Godby Rockets 19 Spots Into the Top Five

No team in the Panhandle makes a larger move this week than Godby.

The Cougars entered Week 3 ranked No. 23 in the region. Three days later, they owned a victory over the region’s No. 1 team.

Godby defeated Pensacola Catholic 21-10 and climbs 19 positions to No. 4 with a 66.64 rating.

The size of the movement is striking, but the result did not occur in isolation.

Godby pushed current No. 1 Mosley to the final point in a 32-31 loss during Week 2. The Cougars now have consecutive performances against two of the region’s highest-rated teams, including a victory over one of them.

Godby’s 19.7 strength-of-schedule figure is also among the strongest in the Panhandle, giving the FPRI considerably more high-level opponent information to evaluate than it had when the Cougars sat outside the top 20.

The methodology refinement regarding statement victories is particularly relevant here. Godby receives greater recognition for defeating an opponent that entered the game significantly higher, but the Cougars are not simply being handed Pensacola Catholic’s rating.

Instead, the win moves Godby substantially toward the strength its recent performances suggest.

The result puts the Cougars only 0.75 points behind No. 3 Blountstown and just 0.18 ahead of No. 5 Bay.

Blountstown Rebounds Into the Top Three

Blountstown entered Week 2 at No. 2 before Bay handed the Tigers a 21-6 loss.

The response came quickly.

Blountstown defeated Bozeman 40-7 in Week 3 and climbs three positions from No. 6 to No. 3 with a 67.39 rating.

The Tigers’ movement illustrates another important feature of the early-season rankings: one loss does not automatically erase everything that came before it.

Blountstown opened with a 49-14 victory over Ariton (Ala.), then lost to a Bay team that has subsequently continued climbing.

Bay’s success adds context to that defeat, while Blountstown’s decisive response against Bozeman gives the model another current-season result to evaluate.

The Tigers now sit 2.56 points behind Pensacola Catholic and 3.93 behind Mosley.

Bay’s Rise Continues From No. 20 to No. 5

Bay has quietly produced one of the most dramatic climbs anywhere in the Panhandle.

The Tornadoes started the season at No. 20 in the regional rankings.

After defeating Blountstown 21-6, Bay jumped 10 positions to No. 10 last week. A 22-6 victory over Gadsden County sends the Tornadoes another five spots higher this week.

Bay now sits No. 5 with a 66.46 rating.

That represents a 15-position rise in only two weeks.

More importantly, Bay’s résumé is becoming less dependent on a single result. The victory over Blountstown initially produced the major jump, but another win gives the model evidence that the upset was not simply an isolated performance.

The Tornadoes sit only 0.18 points behind Godby and 0.93 behind Blountstown, creating an exceptionally tight cluster from No. 3 through No. 5.

Florida High Remains Unbeaten but Gets Squeezed by the Movement Above

Florida High falls one position from No. 5 to No. 6 despite improving to 3-0.

The Seminoles traveled to South Walton and escaped with an 18-15 victory.

Florida High now owns wins over Navarre, Chiles and South Walton and carries a 65.51 rating.

The one-position drop is therefore less about Florida High losing ground and more about what happened around it.

Godby’s win over Pensacola Catholic produced a massive upward move, while Bay continued climbing following another victory.

That pushes Florida High slightly downward despite another win.

The Seminoles remain only 0.95 points behind Bay and 1.88 behind Blountstown, keeping them very much connected to the top-five race.

Choctawhatchee’s Difficult Schedule Starts Paying Off

Choctawhatchee entered Week 3 at No. 15 and 0-2.

That record alone did not tell the full story.

The Indians had opened against Mosley and Auburn (Ala.), giving them one of the more demanding early-season schedules in Northwest Florida.

Then came the breakthrough.

Choctawhatchee traveled to Pace and defeated the Patriots 21-14, climbing eight positions to No. 7 with a 64.15 rating.

The Indians now carry a 16.5 strength-of-schedule figure, one of the strongest among the region’s top teams.

That matters because the FPRI evaluates more than record alone. Choctawhatchee’s first two losses came against quality opposition, and the win over Pace provides evidence that the Indians can compete at that level.

The result also creates an interesting chain near the top of the region: Mosley defeated Choctawhatchee, Choctawhatchee defeated Pace, and Pensacola Catholic defeated Pace before losing to Godby.

As more of those connections develop, the rankings should become increasingly responsive to what teams have actually accomplished against one another.

Madison County and Pace Fall Six Spots

Two teams that entered Week 3 inside the top three now sit in the bottom half of the Power 10.

Madison County falls six positions from No. 2 to No. 8 after losing 27-13 at Columbia.

The Cowboys had dominated their first two opponents, defeating Lecanto 38-0 and Gadsden County 34-6 while outscoring them 72-6.

Columbia represented the first major step up in competition and handed Madison County its first loss.

The Cowboys now carry a 63.95 rating.

Pace follows immediately behind at No. 9 after also falling six positions.

The Patriots lost 21-14 at home to Choctawhatchee and now sit at 63.57.

Pace entered the season near the top of the region and remained No. 3 after its Week 2 loss to Pensacola Catholic, but consecutive defeats have given the FPRI considerably more current-season evidence to work with.

Still, neither team has disappeared from contention.

Only 0.58 points separate No. 7 Choctawhatchee, No. 8 Madison County and No. 9 Pace.

A strong Week 4 performance could change that order again almost immediately.

Maclay Takes the Final Power 10 Spot

Maclay moves into the Power 10 after defeating Aucilla Christian 42-14.

The Marauders climb two positions from No. 12 to No. 10 with a 60.75 rating.

The victory also creates one of the clearest head-to-head movements near the cutoff.

Aucilla Christian entered last week at No. 8 but falls seven positions to No. 15 after the loss.

Maclay heads in the opposite direction.

The margin separating the Marauders from the teams immediately behind them, however, could hardly be smaller.

Taylor County sits No. 11 at 60.70 — only 0.05 rating points behind Maclay.

Baker is No. 12 at 59.89, leaving only 0.86 points between No. 10 and No. 12.

Maclay has entered the Power 10, but the position is far from secure.

The Chase Just Outside the Power 10

Taylor County is the first team out at No. 11 after defeating Marianna 13-7.

Despite the victory, the Bulldogs fall two positions because of stronger movement around them and trail Maclay by only 0.05 points.

Baker owns another notable rise.

The Gators climb eight positions to No. 12 with a 59.89 rating following a 20-14 victory over Holmes County. Baker’s 22.2 strength-of-schedule figure is the highest among the teams immediately surrounding the Power 10 cutoff, giving the model a substantial opponent-strength component to evaluate.

Wakulla sits No. 13 at 59.54 after defeating Chiles 27-7.

Jay moves two positions to No. 14 with a 58.88 rating after shutting out Central 41-0.

Aucilla Christian falls seven places to No. 15 at 57.60, while Tate drops nine positions to No. 16 at 57.39 following a 6-3 loss to Escambia.

Holmes County sits No. 17 at 57.13, Walton is No. 18 at 55.80, Niceville is No. 19 at 54.23 and Lincoln rounds out the top 20 at 54.06.

The compression remains significant.

Only 3.62 rating points separate No. 10 Maclay from No. 17 Holmes County, meaning several teams remain close enough to make meaningful jumps with one strong result.

Week 4 Spotlight: Blountstown Heads to Baker

One of Week 4’s most intriguing Panhandle matchups comes at Doug Griffith Memorial Stadium, where No. 3 Blountstown travels to face No. 12 Baker.

The matchup carries significance at both ends of the Power 10.

Blountstown has climbed back into the top three following its 40-7 victory over Bozeman and will try to strengthen its position among Mosley, Pensacola Catholic and the rapidly rising group immediately behind them.

Baker, meanwhile, sits just 0.86 rating points outside the Power 10 and enters with one of the strongest schedule ratings in the region.

A Baker victory would provide another major head-to-head result capable of reshaping the rankings.

Mosley gets its first week as the region’s No. 1 team when the Dolphins travel to Tallahassee to face Chiles. Mosley’s growing résumé already includes victories over Choctawhatchee, Godby and Niceville, and another win would add additional current-season weight to its position at the top.

Pensacola Catholic returns home to face G.W. Carver Collegiate (La.) as the Crusaders attempt to rebound from their first loss.

Godby receives perhaps the most difficult challenge among the Power 10 when the No. 4 Cougars travel to Georgia to face Camden County. With Godby’s strength of schedule already among the highest in the region, the result should provide another significant piece of information about whether the Cougars’ rapid climb is sustainable.

Bay hosts West Florida at Tommy Oliver Stadium, while Florida High travels to the same venue to face Rutherford.

Choctawhatchee travels to Escambia after the Indians’ breakthrough victory over Pace.

Madison County hosts University Christian, giving the Cowboys an opportunity to respond immediately to their loss at Columbia.

Another important head-to-head game comes at Patriots Stadium, where No. 13 Wakulla visits No. 9 Pace. Wakulla sits only 4.03 points behind the Patriots and could create additional movement around the bottom of the Power 10 with a road victory.

Maclay hosts Chipley while trying to protect the No. 10 position.

Taylor County, only 0.05 points behind Maclay, travels to No. 18 Walton in another matchup that could directly affect the cutoff.

Tate travels to Crestview, Aucilla Christian visits Rocky Bayou Christian, Holmes County hosts Graceville, Niceville welcomes Navarre and Lincoln hosts Rickards at Gene Cox Stadium.

Jay has an open week.

The Panhandle Picture Is Starting to Take Shape — But Not Settle

Three weeks have produced three substantially different versions of the Panhandle hierarchy.

Pensacola Catholic took over No. 1 after beating Pace in Week 2.

Now Mosley sits atop the region after improving to 3-0, while Godby has exploded from No. 23 to No. 4 and Bay has climbed from No. 20 to No. 5 in only two weeks.

Choctawhatchee has gone from 0-2 and outside the Power 10 to No. 7 after a statement victory over Pace.

At the same time, Madison County and Pace have fallen from the top three into Nos. 8 and 9.

Some of the larger movement this week is connected to the FPRI methodology refinements, but the underlying results are equally important. The region now has more meaningful head-to-head information than it did a week ago, and those games are beginning to build a network that provides better context for every victory and loss.

Mosley’s wins over Godby and Choctawhatchee look different now that both teams have produced statement victories of their own.

Bay’s win over Blountstown carries more meaning as both programs continue winning.

Godby’s narrow loss to Mosley gains context after the Cougars beat Pensacola Catholic.

That is exactly what should happen as preseason assumptions gradually give way to actual 2026 results.

Week 4 should add even more clarity, particularly with Blountstown facing Baker and Pace hosting Wakulla.

The Panhandle is beginning to take shape.

It is nowhere close to being settled.

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As more games are played, current performance and opponent strength will continue replacing preseason information within the ratings.

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