gatorman-uf

The new system has 4 categories: 1) .800 win % and above, 2) .600 to .799 win %, 3) .400 to .5999 and 4) below .4000 Fletcher had wins against Fort White (Category 1) and Mandarin (Category 2), Columbia had two Category 2 wins (Fletcher and Suwannee) and no Category 1 wins. Flecther's losses (Lee and CHS) were a Category 1 and 2 loss. Columnia's losses (Lee, TC-Jax, and Buchholz) were a Category 1 and 2 Category 2 losses).

I ran a simulation based on the new playoff format for Classification 7A, Region 1... I don't like the new system that goes into effect next year. I think it is overly complicated for what the goal should be. The FHSAA membership disagrees, so be it. My position has not changed we need to create a promotion/relegation system that pushes better teams up the ladder and worse ones down until they can be successful. District Champs/Runner Up Under Current System Lincoln/Leon Lee/Columbia Buchholz/Bartram Trail Ocoee/Hagerty Under the Simulation 1) Ocoee vs Oakleaf/Columbia 2) Buchholz vs Bartram Trail 3) Lee vs Fletcher 4) Lincoln vs Hagerty Ocoee High School 39 Buchholz High School 38.8889 Lee High School 38.75 Hagerty High School 38 Fletcher High School 37.7778 Bartram Trail High School 37.5 Lincoln High School 37.5 Columbia High School 37.2222 Oakleaf High School 37.2222 West Port High School 36.1111 East Ridge High School 36 Leon High School 35.625 Fleming Island High School 35.5556 Lake Howell High School 33.5 Chiles High School 32.2222 First Coast High School 32.2222 Atlantic Coast High School 31.5 Edgewater High School 30 Lake Minneola High School 29.5 Creekside High School 29.4444 Now, the new system is funky and weird. 1), I can't actually break the tie between Oakleaf and Columbia as they have the same # of category 1 wins (0) and same # of category 1 and 2 wins (2). There is no next tie breaker, so who earns the 8th spot is a mystery. 2) CHS (which beat Fletcher in the regular season) ends up being pushed potentially out. Two of our first round games are rematches (real excitement there for a first round match). 3) If we assume Columbia gets the spot, then the old system provided 7 of the 8 that would have gotten in anyway (only Leon stays home). Link to Data

Some interesting articles from the Gainesville Sun about the Suwannee Conference... (1988) Chiefland Coach/Principal Doyle McCall talks about some of the positive impact of the conference. https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=esBWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=FeoDAAAAIBAJ&pg=6431%2C227418 (1990) Williston, Dixie County, Chiefland, Union County, Newberry are members and Keystone and Interlachen wanting to join. https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=j89PAAAAIBAJ&sjid=oQYEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5449%2C3801585 (1992) Last reference I can find to Suwannee Conference https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=DsRPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=pQYEAAAAIBAJ&pg=6873%2C4769971

I have no problem with 1 weekend of games... I just wish they would do it Friday-Sunday. Have 2 games on Sunday (noon and 4 pm). Friday and Saturday 11: 3:30, 7:30 pm

Nothing new here... still doesn't solve the problems. The major problems are caused by too many classifications. People are upset that a 1-9 team makes the playoffs because they are in a 3 team district. Well, why does that happen? Answer: Teams are too spread out with this many classifications. People continue to say that you will see more marquee match-ups with the new system, I continue to ask how does the current system stop them from happening? Nobody ever answers that question. The current district/runner-up doesn't discourage you from scheduling a 10-0. Also some teams are not going to reschedule some games. Columbia High School is going to play Suwannee every year, because it is a gate game that both communities want. Columbia is going to continue to play Gainesville and Buchholz because they are close, gate games. People say that we will have less blowouts in the first rounds, these were the point differentials in the state championships when the best of the best are supposed to be playing and would happen under the new or old system. 8A Game: 19 point spread 7A Game: 35 point spread 6A Game: 35 point spread 5A Game: 3 point spread 4A Game: 20 point spread 3A Game: 27 point spread 2A Game: 45 point spread 1A Game: 34 point spread How does this new system fix the above? Simple answer it doesn't.... We have to stop pretending that school size is the only factor that matters in football success. We need to weight success on the field along with school size. Does this mean a school like Trinity Christian or Oxbridge might be playing in a classification 2 or 3 sizes bigger, sure. But their success has proven they can handle it. At the same time, do we need to allow schools like Stanton Prep to play in a lower classification because they aren't going to compete with schools their own size. YES!!!

My favorite part, he enrolled at AHD on June 15 and was back at St. JP II by June 22. His reasoning "he didn't like American Heritage." Seriously, you can make that decision in a week? Whether he was recruited or not, think about it for a second. You are a rising Junior, the QB at AHD is a rising Junior and just won a state championship. Do you really think you are going to beat out the reigning starter? I just don't get it.

Great Job to Justin Barney and the Florida Times-Union http://jacksonville.com/sports/high-schools/2016-07-09/story/florida-produces-most-nfl-talent-yet-statewide-pay-high-school

Video of FHSAA Administrator Frank Beasley explaining the proposal.

Captain, I am not a fan of the potential new system, but I do understand the need for change. The decision is not official yet and still need groups to accept it. But yes, you ask these people their opinion. Your argument is essentially saying that a citizen who chose not to vote shouldn't be allowed to propose things that would make their government better in their eyes. I disagree, they are still part of the organization. The FHSAA is listening to them and not just them. Lots of playoff-eligible schools want to do this and bringing back those schools solves many of the problems that we are currently talking about. So if it gets them in, maybe a lot of the problems solve themselves. I would argue the FHSAA (and not the independents) was negligent in allowing these schools to become independent. The moment they noticed the large number leaving they should have done something. The difference was it is harder to quantify their issues in comparison to a Chiefland or Williston having to play Trinity Catholic in a district game.

Those independents schools still are part of the FHSAA, they have just chosen to not be part of the playoff system as independents. Schools can do this for numerous reasons including schools like IMG, which allows them to have a national schedule. Schools like Florida School for the Deaf and Blind. Schools that are super small and don't want to play a ton of games. Schools that just don't want to play schools that will dominate them and put safety of players higher. Those independent schools though are important if the FHSAA wants to keep 8 classifications. If you put even 40 of them back into our classifications, many of the problems that we talk about can be solved. So these schools are still members, still have a say in the organization, the FHSAA wants to serve them in the best way possible. In reality, this is no different than the threats of small rural schools going independent several years ago. The FHSAA talked to them and found a suitable solution. The FHSAA is trying to serve the needs of Bolles, STA, Armwood, and these small private schools as well. It is hard to create rules for all of them, but the FHSAA has to listen to all of them.

You won't see that in 1A-4A. Regions still exist. It will be a bigger issue in 5A-8A for travel during playoffs, but 1A-4A should look very similar to what it always does so no worries there.

They are essentially introducing wildcards as 1A-4A all the positions are wildcard and in 4A-8A only the district champ is ensured a playoff spot. The other 4 former district runner-up positions would become wildcards. But when we say wildcard, we have to have a system that allows a team in.

The longest travel would still be Pahokee to Branford in Region 4, which was a possibility under the current system so travel won't really change. In theory, 4 district 8 teams could make the playoffs or 4 district 7 teams as district will not exist. So Pahokee could play 10 games and never leave Palm Beach County and still end up in the playoffs.

Come on Joshua, the easiest step? So on one side we have a complete overall of districts champions/runner-ups, two separate rule systems for small schools and large schools, a seeding system based on power points, which are based on things a team has no control over OR we can reduce classifications, which would expand two-team districts, prevent examples like NFC and FAMU. Sorry, not buying that it is easier.... Again, I get the reasons... I just think it doesn't do anything that it is trying to do. Nobody has ever explained to me how the current system prevents Powerhouse vs Powerhouse from playing which is what the new system is supposed to create. I am for change, but this doesn't create the very thing you are trying to change. All it really does is allow teams to avoid playing Trinity Bolles STA Manatee

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/footballpreps/points-based-florida-high-school-football-playoff-format-moves-forward/2281599 Gives some more details... again I dispute how the new system fixes these things. Again they talk of the losing teams vs winning teams, some winning teams are still staying home. 19 team of them, and who says all the teams are in the same region or district or class to easily replace the losing team. "Blowout losses in the playoffs", we had blowouts in the state championships where the 2 best teams would be playing. Our system is watered down. The new focus on wide-open offenses that run more plays leads to more points, that is why we have such big scoring gaps. Part of the reason why there are two teams in a district (forgetting the 60+ independent teams that would fill in the gaps) is the travel. FAMU and NFC might be the only two teams in the district but the nearest other teams are in Jacksonville, nearly 2.5 hours for a game. This is the geography of North Florida and the Panhandle. Yes games are decided in the 9th week to allow for a shootout if necessary. The 10th game is often a non-district rivalry game that allows the teams to play for something. Look, the playoff system wasn't broken to me. You win, you're in. Now, it will have so many moving parts that you will be cheering for some game that shouldn't matter to you. I will continue to say that relegation/promotion are the answer. You are good, you move up. You are bad, you move down.

While I disagree with the decision, the FHSAA did do a poll asking coaches/ADs/administrators their opinion. 70% wanted a change. Supposedly 30 of the 60+ independents would be willing to rejoin classifications if the changes happen.

I also dislike one of the stats that they gave that 16 losing teams made the playoffs and 35 winning teams missed the playoffs. First, even if we assumed that all losing teams missed the playoffs and they all went to the winning team that would still leave 19 "winning" teams out of the playoffs. Additionally, nothing says that the losing teams and winning teams are even in the same region. A quick look at 1A shows Northview had a losing record and made the playoffs, but there were 2 teams in Region 1 that had winning records, so one winning record team is still sitting home. In Region 2 and 4 there were a combined 3 additional "winning" teams and no losing teams. The system still sends winning teams home. Again, losing teams make the playoffs because of small districts. Small districts happen because the FHSAA expanded classifications and has a couple of classifications that are too small. Shrink # of classifications, increase minimum # of teams in a classification and losing playoff team cease.

Look, I have been outspoken in that I don't think the district winner/runner-up format is broken. I actually think it works and encourages teams to schedule difficult teams because there is no reason not to. If you are an above average team why not schedule the local powerhouse in an out of district game, it doesn't hurt your chances of making the playoffs. Now, scheduling and losing them to them could actually hurt my seeding or playoff chances. Well, the FHSAA voted for the changes... I get it. I do. Maybe it is the fact that I don't see the problem nor how this solves the problem. I see an exciting playoff system each year, even if you consider that a 5-5 Booker T Washington made the playoffs and won a state championship, which I guess is a bad thing according to the powers that be because they prevented a team with a winning record from getting in. I see a game like Dwyer and STA happen in the 2nd round in 7A (which was essentially the state championship game) and think if we have regional seeding in happens in round 3? To me that is not going to "save" the playoffs. I think this is going to make it so that it matters less what happens on a field that you control vs a field that is 100 miles away. All of a sudden you have to hope that the teams you play are good. As a fan, you will have no clue how your team is doing because it won't matter until week 11. I would point out again the old system vs new system had 7 of the same 8 playoffs teams (Region 1, Class 7A) in the simulation they ran. So it is not like the old system wasn't choosing good teams. I will continue to say the reason that we have blowouts in the regular season is that the FHSAA tries to create a level playing field by only looking at school size. They forget that certain schools put more/less emphasis on certain sports and this creates the imbalance. Do I want to be a small school and play Trinity Christian, Bolles, University Christian, American Heritage-Delray? Nope, so I get why an average small school wants this change. The reality is that this will be our system for the next 11 years at a minimum. We will still have the same "good" teams winning state championships. The same teams that can't compete, still won't be able to compete.

There is a good line in one of the articles that Koch says he didn't really want there to be football. I am sure he has numerous other things that take his attention away. But when you start looking at the pay of the CEO and the high turnover rate of teachers at Oxbridge "If a Fortune 500 company had this problem, we would be looking at leadership" is another line that struck me. I think the neighbors' kid is probably right. Too big too much too soon. If they had done the same thing in soccer or basketball or baseball nobody would bat an eye, but in football with all the costs of their awesome stadium (it is an awesome stadium if you drive by), they probably realized they had been too loose with the purse strings and needn't to shut that down.

By long time, "estbalished" school you mean since 2000, right? American Heritage is no different they took players from other private schools and recruited schools Oxbridge just was beating American Heritage at their own game. Granted, I don't like Oxbridge for other reasons. But I am glad American Heritage started losing. I just wish it was other schools that were winning. Some other stories that go into more detail about Oxbridge problems... http://westpalmbeat.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2016/05/27/oxbridge-ceo-out-after-koch-investigation/ http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/news/tales-of-sexism-high-turnover-prompt-probe-at-koch/nrD53/ A lot of this sounds like rich people problems. But Koch it seems had a thorough investigation. As for Socha, he will become a coach someplace in South Florida and turnaround that program.

Not true, all of the games were played in Dolphin Stadium. Actually, they all have been played at the same common location since 1989. As for the last time they held the games in Miami (2006), the 8A state championship game had Miami Northwestern as they were starting their historic run. Additionally, other games that year had a 3rd installment of Lakeland and STA (as Lakeland was looking for a 3 peat). Additionally, Muck City showed out as Glades Central, Pahokee, Clewiston, and Glades Day all were playing in the first weekend of games. Additionally only Pine Forest, Bolles, North Central Florida, and FAMU came from N of Orlando. 2 of those played in the smallest classes and are not going to bring large numbers no matter the location of the games. In the last 3-4 years, Miami Dade has been represented by a BTW, Miami Central, and an 8A school. Many of these 8A schools are not your traditional Miami Dade powers and as a result the community has not rallied the way that it does for some others. Basically, what I am saying is 2006 was the perfect mix of teams to produce a historic numbers in terms of attendance. As for my dream scenario, 1A goes to either Citizen's Field (Gainesville), Columbia High School (Lake City), or Gene Cox Stadium (Tallahassee). 2A goes to HOME School, 3A-8A play at one stadium over 3 days. I would prefer Friday, Saturday, Sunday even though games aren't allowed to scheduled games on Sunday. Or 3 games on Friday and Saturday. I would have like Daytona Beach if only to allow a more intimate feel for a game than the cavernous Citrus Bowl (refuse to call it by the new name). I also understand that kids getting the chance to play in a stadium like the Citrus Bowl is a once and a life feel.

Heartland, I think Moore Haven has always been considered part of the rural, but like some schools until recently have chosen not to be in Rural due to the drive. The nearest 1A school was Wildwood and Crescent City (3 and 4 hour drives). Now Pahokee, Frostproof, and Fort Meade in District 8 makes it more "affordable"

Josh, I think that is a good first step. It allows teams to have both the advantage of getting in by winning your district or by having that tough schedule. I would be ok if they shrank the class to 7A as well or failing that going down to 3 districts per region. The one thing that I can say after playing with these teams is that districts are hard to put together. There are times when I could easily have ended up with 18 districts instead of 16 or 9 instead 8.

When we are talking about Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, it simply is the idea of going South to North. In terms of West Broward, North Miami, Mater Academy. The issue is District 16 is 5 teams already. I could move Miami Beach from District 16 to District 15 and move West Broward from District 15 to District 14. What that unfortunately does is create a 4 team District 16, 4 team District 15, and a 6 team District 14. Unfortunately, small districts are something that is often complained about so part of what I tried to do is avoid that. As for Flanagan, Hialeah, Gardens, Krop, Miramar, that again is a North to South issue... The only thing I could do is move Miami Central to that district. As for Miami NNW and Carol City.... South to North issue again... District 16 is Homestead, Miami Sunset, Gulliver Prep, Doral, and Miami Springs... Miami Springs and MNW are almost level in terms of N/S, but the 4 other Southern Schools are closer to Springs so Springs moves to District 16. that means the next 5 schools will form District 15 which is the district that means. While North Miami Beach is more S than Carol City, Carol City is located closer to 3 of the other schools so they get District 15 while North Miami moves to District 14. If district size didn't matter, if people were fine with 2 team district and 8 team districts, this isn't a hard task. At the point that that you have to find 4-6 teams consistently in each district, it becomes a matter of making certain decisions. If we get rid of districts (based on the original proposal by the FHSAA), the one benefit is no longer hearing about unfair districts.

Sharkbait, First realize that my proposal doesn't affect 1A because they are so unique in their requirements. As for how quickly they move up or down, well that would depends on bad they did and how close were they to the cutoff lines. If we continued to use population and last 5 years of success. Or we can use simple measures like the total number of district wins over the past two seasons. The lowest team in each district moves down. The 16 teams that make it the furthest in the playoffs combined over the course of 2 years move up.