DarterBlue2

Game over!

One wonders to what extent the same applies to the other states with National Caliber team?

Yes, but your reference period was 2004 to 2018. Perhaps we have really been on the decline for longer than it seems when we dig into the underlying data more deeply.

The difference this year is: we have no teams like those STA, MC and BTW teams. In other years we have had some teams that have stepped up, if not consistently, at least for a year or two, and represented us well. STA may be of that caliber this year, I am not sure. MC and BTW are not.

Probably an outlier. But we will see.

1. Apopka has won games this year on defense. Their offense this year is in the bottom three I have seen in the past 21 seasons. If the defensive front were not in the top third of APK teams over the same period, Apopka would have lost at least two to three games. For the first time in over a decade, I can honestly say that, assuming Apopka makes the playoffs, I would be very surprised if they get beyond the second round. 2. I agree on Mandarin. 3. I would agree on your last point if we were doing better in out of state competition. But we are not. We are having one of our worst years in recent history. Thus, I feel that rather than other teams rising up, it is the opposite: our best teams have fallen off.

Several: Trinity Christian, Carol City, Apopka, Mandarin, Columbus,Raines, Mainland, I could list several other, but I think you get the point. It is more a lack of consistency than anything else. I would not use one year as gospel, but if we had several years like this one in a row, I would subscribe to the theory that Florida High School football is on the decline.

It's not what has happened in recent years. It's what they have done this year against teams that are currently regarded as solid. So far this year, only a very few teams have been consistently good.

It is hard to fathom how Edison beat Carol City who gave both Northwestern and St. Thomas decent games. Edison lost to a down Coral Gables. To me it looks like, overall, Florida is having a down football year. Not many elite teams out there. It is reflected in our relatively poor out of state games showing.

Lakeland goes into the playoffs undefeated and does not get tested till Armwood. From the Armwood game on the path gets harder, but they have as good a chance of repeating as any other team in the state.

Mandarin just took a huge step last night. WP will need to knock off Timber Creek.

No, fool! It would be Lakeland or Armwood. You don't even read before typing a response.

So, I take it you won't commit. Well, if and when they make the semis, hit me up, I may be willing to take the semi bet then.

Look it up and get back to me. If you are comfortable, put your money where your mouth is. And, to show you how confident I am, if I win the first leg of the bet (that they get to the semis), I may even give you action on the semis game against (likely) either Lakeland or Armwood.

Marietta won by 15 (two scores). Jones did not have 8 starters out. Tell you what: do you want a wager that Edgewater gets at least to the 7A semi final? I am good for up to $100 with you.

Whatever. I don't expect to get an unbiased evaluation for you. It's not in your DNA.

Pinkos or Laz or another person with a long track record. At least I would have more confidence in the data they use.

You would probably have ended up with several games in large metro areas (Jax and Orlando). For at least some of these you would have had to travel.

You are smoking something pretty strong. Did you even watch the game?

Edgewater had almost 500 yards of offense, more than Marietta. They lost the game because of two reasons: 1. They turned the ball over on downs on three critical drives deep in Marietta territory. 2. More importantly, Marietta's offensive line won the battle of the trenches against Edgewater's defensive line. You don't give a very good D1 QB all the time in the world to throw and not get burned for points. If they met in the friendly confines of College Park, the game's outcome would likely have been different.

Correct! For any tie will be broken by the outlandish RPI!

If you don't win your district, that is exactly right!

We had a simple system that could have worked. District winner and runner up make the playoffs. With that all we needed to do was to ensure that the districts had at least five teams each. Would it be prefect? No, but it would have been easy to understand, the risk of error would be minimal, and, if there were five teams per district (at a minimum), then most districts would have had three or more team that would have had a shot at the playoffs. If that were combined with a regional playoff system based on a ranking system, the playoffs could still be very interesting and would not have the same early matches each year. But no, we introduce a very complex system, with a woefully unreliable service (Max Preps) as the gatekeeper and expect that we are going to have a non-controversial, fair system. My take is it is not going to work.

I think you have a 60% chance or better of going 10-0. This should give you at least the 2 seed in the region.

North Florida Christian Carol City