OLAY!

Are you going to pay for the 250 mile trip one way? 

The underlying talent disparity (rooted in South Florida's larger, denser population and stronger football ecosystem) was indeed present throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and the population gap was even wider back then compared to today.Here's the census data for confirmation: Area 1970 Population 1980 Population Combined ~1980 South Florida (Miami-Dade + Broward + Palm Beach) ~2.24M (1.268M + 0.620M + 0.349M) ~3.22M (1.626M + 1.018M + 0.577M) ~3.22M Greater Orlando (Orange + Seminole) ~0.428M (0.344M + 0.084M) ~0.651M (0.471M + 0.180M) ~0.65M Ratio (South FL / Orlando) ~5.2x ~5x ~5x Today (2020s estimates): South Florida ~6.6M vs. Orlando ~2.1M → about 3x. So yes, the raw pool favoring South Florida was more disproportionate in the 70s/80s.Despite that larger inherent advantage, publics dominated or competed evenly in private-public finals during those decades (per Laz's data: publics ~78% wins in 1970s, ~60% in 1980s). The big shift to private dominance starts in the 2000s onward, aligning precisely with the loosening of transfer rules.Key timeline on FHSAA/Florida rules: Pre-1990s/early 2000s: Stricter residency requirements, limited "good cause" transfers, harsher anti-recruiting enforcement—talent stayed more localized/dispersed among South Florida publics. Mid-1990s onward: School choice/open enrollment laws (e.g., 1996) begin expanding options. Early 2000s: More waivers for immediate eligibility. 2010s-2020s: Transfers become essentially unlimited with immediate varsity eligibility (major expansions via legislation like HB 7029 in 2016 and later updates). This mechanism allowed elite privates in the dense South Florida area to consolidate top talent from the massive pool, turning a pre-existing disparity into overwhelming on-field dominance. Without those rule changes, the talent wouldn't have concentrated so heavily at a few programs.  The talent edge was always there (and stronger historically), but restricted transfers kept it from fully manifesting in private super-teams. The recruiting/transfer era flipped the results.   Man, let me tell y’all somethin’… back in the day, I’m talkin’ late 70s, early 80s, I’m standin’ outside the Orange Bowl watchin’ them Miami public schools roll through errybody. Carol City, Northwestern, Central… them boys was BAD, noimsayin? South Florida already had five times the bodies Orlando had—hell, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach together was pushin’ 3 million folks while Orange and Seminole ain’t even crack 700k yet. That talent gap was wider than the smile on a stripper when you tip her a twenty just for walkin’ past.   But guess what? Them private schools wasn’t runnin’ the table like they do now. Laz’s numbers don’t lie—publics was whuppin’ private ass in them championship games 78% in the 70s, still 60% in the 80s. I seen it with my own two eyes. Them top kids stayed at the public schools ‘round the way. You couldn’t just up and transfer ‘cause Mama got a “better job opportunity” or whatever smooth line they use these days.   Fast forward to now… same South Florida, still got the biggest, deepest pool in the state—only now the gap shrunk to about 3-to-1 ‘cause Orlando finally grew up some. But them private schools? They winnin’ damn near erry cross-over chip—93% this decade. How that happen when the talent edge was actually BIGGER back when publics was dominatin’?   Simple, baby. The rules changed. They opened the floodgates—open enrollment, immediate eligibility, all that. Now STA, Chaminade, American Heritage can vacuum up every 4- and 5-star from Miramar to Jupiter like my cousin Ray at the buffet when they drop fresh fried chicken. Talent always been thicker down south, but back then it was spread out. Now it’s funneled straight to a handful of private addresses.   So when that dude say “the problem ain’t recruitin’ or transfers, it’s just one area got all the talent,” I gotta laugh. Bruh, that area had EVEN MORE talent advantage back when your granddaddy was watchin’ games—and the publics was still winnin’. The only thing that changed is the rules lettin’ them privates corner the market like I used to corner the number 7 at the dog track on Friday nights.   I learned this lesson the hard way too—chasin’ a fine thang named Destiny who danced at Solid Gold. Thought I had the edge ‘cause I worked at Publix and could get her all the free subs she wanted. Next week she transferred to some dude drivin’ a Benz. Same talent pool, baby… just different rules on who can recruit who.   Point is, don’t tell me it’s just “geography.” Geography been the same song for 50 years. They just remixed the beat and handed the privates the microphone.  

The problem isn’t recruiting or transfers. The problem is one area of the state is exponentially superior in talent. Which means when 10 guys transfer to STA from around SFL, it’s light years of a difference when 10 guys transfer to Boone or Lake Brantley. (Which they did) But since STA actually wins with their transferred talent, everyone gets up in arms about it, and doesn’t say a word about Boone or Lake Brantley.    It is kind of hypocritical that the outrage only points in one direction. I believe in order to hold the moral high ground, one would have to be equally outraged at their local publics who poach 10 transfers but lose in the 1st/2nd round as they are of the private who win the title. 

Thank you LAZ for putting facts to paper in the place of simple gut feelings as I have stated during my last few years as a participant on this forum that I felt certain publics decided to start participating in the recruiting game around 2000 as they recognized the writing on the wall.  Those publics, who will be left un-named felt this was the only choice if they wanted to compete with STA,  Bolles School, Trinity Christian and as of late AHP, C-MD and others.  Not here to weigh in on the decision made by those publics but it did help them level the playing field with eventually someone deciding they should bust Lakeland in 2011 for denying STA several championships during that decade assessing heavy financial penalties on that school.  For that very reason I have believed that these top privates should compete with each other for 1 or 2 state championships while the publics can compete for an additional 3 or 4 based on enrollment eliminating the incentive to recruit knowing like other things in life, not everyone follows the rules.  Spare me the line regarding what our state legislature will or will not do in this regard as that simply misses the entire point.