This is always an interesting topic and subject for debate. Years ago, everyone said, "just add 3 points to the home team." What I've learned is that this is inaccurate. It became obvious that each team has its own home field number. Some teams may have a 10 or 12 point advantage, while others perform at -10 or -12 when playing at home. Well, I really don't like subtracting points for home teams because I found in college, about 58-60% of home teams do win each week so there has to be an advantage somewhere. What I did was look at the difference in Road Power Rating vs. Home Power rating and come up with an average.
I also tried this with high school and the Home Field Advantage turned out to be about 1/3 of a point. I used to add .34 points to the home team's power rating when predicting games. This was basically a waste of time and didn't make much of a difference so today, I no longer calculate a home field advantage for our high schools because there really is no advantage. However, College is a different story.
Colleges do have a home field advantage, just not as big as we may think. And they change week to week. Here are the current home field advantage averages by division:
Div - # Teams - Home Field Adv
FBS P4
70
1.4
FBS G5
66
2.8
FCS
129
1.9
D2
161
1.1
D3
240
0.9
NAIA
94
1.2
TOTAL
760
1.35
I feel your pain, but Florida, as a state, got very lucky this year with weather. Unlike last year, we didn't have any significant hurricane events so, for the most part, and with the exception of a few early-season thunderstorm/lightning cancellations, all games were played. As pointed out, I think any make-up games had to be played by Tuesday of this week.
I suspect the top 6 or 7 teams in each region like the idea of a bye week leading into the playoffs. It gives teams a chance to get healthy before they enter the playoff run. But, you're right about the teams on the bubble . . . the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th teams are sitting out there not even knowing if they're going to be playing in the playoffs. But at least we can figure out who's likely to make it and who's likely to be left at home, because we all know the formula that gets used to determine the rankings, right?
Now we'll look at college intra division games and it's easy to see why they're tougher to predict. Especially FBS P4 and G5 where over half of the games are rated Excellent to Good.
FBS-P4
14.6
avg
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
47
21%
21%
A
Really Good
4-8
49
22%
42%
B+
Good
9-12
23
10%
53%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
32
14%
67%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
15
7%
73%
C
Not Really
22-26
26
12%
85%
D+
Poor
27-30
5
2%
87%
D
Bad
31-35
17
8%
95%
F
Horrible
36+
12
5%
100%
226
FBS-G5
14.7
avg
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
42
21%
21%
A
Really Good
4-8
35
18%
39%
B+
Good
9-12
21
11%
50%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
28
14%
64%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
21
11%
75%
C
Not Really
22-26
17
9%
83%
D+
Poor
27-30
12
6%
89%
D
Bad
31-35
10
5%
94%
F
Horrible
36+
11
6%
100%
197
FCS
16.9
avg
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
71
15%
15%
A
Really Good
4-8
109
23%
38%
B+
Good
9-12
43
9%
47%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
57
12%
58%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
51
11%
69%
C
Not Really
22-26
41
9%
78%
D+
Poor
27-30
37
8%
85%
D
Bad
31-35
20
4%
90%
F
Horrible
36+
50
10%
100%
479
Division 2
19.3
avg
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
88
13%
13%
A
Really Good
4-8
145
21%
34%
B+
Good
9-12
49
7%
41%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
86
12%
53%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
60
9%
62%
C
Not Really
22-26
60
9%
71%
D+
Poor
27-30
61
9%
79%
D
Bad
31-35
41
6%
85%
F
Horrible
36+
102
15%
100%
692
Division 3
23.5
avg
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
105
12%
12%
A
Really Good
4-8
135
15%
27%
B+
Good
9-12
59
7%
33%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
89
10%
43%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
86
10%
53%
C
Not Really
22-26
79
9%
61%
D+
Poor
27-30
62
7%
68%
D
Bad
31-35
78
9%
77%
F
Horrible
36+
208
23%
100%
901
NAIA
23.8
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
43
11%
11%
A
Really Good
4-8
61
16%
28%
B+
Good
9-12
24
6%
34%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
43
11%
45%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
30
8%
53%
C
Not Really
22-26
33
9%
62%
D+
Poor
27-30
20
5%
67%
D
Bad
31-35
33
9%
76%
F
Horrible
36+
91
24%
100%
378
TOTAL
20.1 avg
Grade
Interest
Point Margin
Games
Pct
Cumul.
A+
Excellent
1-3
396
14%
14%
A
Really Good
4-8
534
19%
32%
B+
Good
9-12
219
8%
40%
B
Pretty Good
13-17
335
12%
52%
C+
Somewhat
18-21
263
9%
61%
C
Not Really
22-26
256
9%
70%
D+
Poor
27-30
197
7%
77%
D
Bad
31-35
199
7%
84%
F
Horrible
36+
474
16%
100%
2873
My son's team has been in limbo this week, practicing without knowing if they are playing next week or not. This bye week sucks ass. There are a ton of multi-sport kids who can't start their next sport while they sit around idle for two weeks. The season + post season was already too long. F*** this bye week, there has to be a better way! Not only that, the last games were played on Tuesday. Why the **** do we have to wait until Thurs PM to find out???