DarterBlue2

Deland's best chance to beat Venice would be to run the ball effectively and try and eat up the clock, keeping Venice's high powered offense off the field as much as possible. If Deland has to depend on its passing game, they are in deep trouble. Darlington is an offensive genius. So, I would not discount him. But if Venice vs Deland is in our tournament, my chips are on Venice this time. Sorry SexyBeast, my heart's with Deland, but cold logic says Venice.

South Sumter came to play but ran out of gas as the better team pulled away ...

They certainly did. Both Mainland and St. Augustine are likely very aware that Vanguard stands in their way.

I think your assessment is fair. CCC has the best chance of making the finals as I think it's better than 50/50; unfortunately, if they do, they face what is likely the best team in the state. Ironically, the team with the best chance of winning a state title if it got there is Gaither, who, if by some magic, could upset St. Thomas in the semis, would at least have a 45/55 shot at beating either Homestead or Jones the following week. If Plant beats Columbus, which is plausible, though it will be difficult, they would still be an underdog against either Mandarin or Monarch. But at least they would not be an overwhelming underdog. I believe their odds, should they beat Columbus, would likely be about 40% - 45%. Unfortunately for Berkeley, they will face back to back giants on the way to a state title. Beating one seems possible if unlikely, beating both, would be a once in a lifetime achievement and would be a little too much to realistically expect.

Then I guess you will only have 10 games in the next round unless some of them come with margin of victory criteria and not just pick the winners.

Yes, but that game will be far more difficult for DeLand to win. If anything, they are at a natural disadvantage against the current Venice team. My best bet is you get: Venice vs the winner of Buchholtz/Lakeland in the 4S final.

By the third round, most of the pretenders have already been eliminated. So, you get very good games unless one team is just head and shoulders better than all the rest, which, unfortunately, has been the case too many times in the recent past.

In fairness to Vanguard, they are alive and well and looking like they may win a state title for Marion Publics for the first time in forever.

But still in the hunt. @imjustafan2 went down fighting to the end and was a noble loser. Sorry the season had to end that way for him. He was this round's Seminole.

I was the only one in the pick em to get this game right. As we discussed, Rick Darlington nor Jeff Rolson, are not going to lose to a single wing team, especially one that was taught the single wing by Rick Darlington. Just is not going to happen unless: 1. The team has one of the best Offensive Lines in the state; 2. It has at least 3 power 5, running backs in the backfield; 3. It has a QB that can, if required to, hurl the ball downfield accurately. TC was a solid team. But it never met the above criteria. As in 2021 when Apopka shut them down in the semis, they were doomed by the draw.

Heavily recruited teams don't always win. If no chemistry, no title. VB is a lesser example of the same issue.

I actually think Coconut Creek will keep the game against Aquinas close before losing. They are a solid team and I don't think this is the best team St. Thomas has put out there.

Ray, If I had one iota of a chance, I would snap up Noah in a heartbeat. I am sure Seminole would like to. The sell would be a state championship. But I think that he won't budge as I believe he likes his current situation.

He's not going anywhere. Family is well grounded in the Lake Mary community. What they need are three replacement receivers, a good backup running back and more strength in their secondary. If they get all or some of these, they will be a contender next year, too.

1R - Williston vs Hawthorne Union County vs Madison County Bozeman vs Holmes County 1S - Moore Haven vs First Baptist Melbourne Central Catholic vs Ocala Trinity Catholic 1M - Carrollwood Day vs Clearwater Central Catholic Archbishop Carroll vs True North Classical 2S - Pensacola Catholic vs Florida High Baker County vs Bradford County 2M - Miami Central vs Norland Bolles vs Bishop Moore - This is a sentiment pick on my part. It's going to be a tall order to beat Bolles even at home. Calvary Christian (Clearwater) vs Berkeley Prep 3S - Dunbar vs Naples St Augustine vs Choctawhatchee 3M - Tampa Bay Tech vs Jones - Jones had better win this; if they can't I doubt they ever get another finals appearance. Miramar vs Homestead 4S - Deland vs Treasure Coast - If there's any defense Darlington can stop, it's the single wing. 4M - Mandarin vs Seminole - Mandarin may have peaked at the right time. I am not totally sold as the WP win was not impressive, and LM was a shell of its early season going into the playoffs with the exit of its Running Back/Receiver who had accounted for over 1,400 yards of total offense. Palm Beach Central vs Monarch Western vs Columbus Picks bold underscored.

You are underestimating Cocoa. They are totally capable of hanging with anyone in the state of Florida. Just ask St. Thomas Aquinas.

Seminole exposed weakness on the right side of their secondary in the final five minutes of their game a few weeks ago when they came back from a 14 point deficit to win. Mainland failed to throw the ball effectively against LM and did not exploit it. Boone kept throwing in that area and picked up TDs and big yardage. Another thing Boone did effectively after watching video of the game, is this: Rather than running the ball up the gut against LM or trying to get the ball to the (edge) sidelines and running it from there, Boone's QB would pitch the ball out to the running back in space after looking like he was going to throw downfield. This caught the LM defense flatfooted a couple times and Boone took full advantage. This game was the total opposite of the Mainland game. Against Mainland, LM looked like they had a monster defense. Against Boone, their defense looked suspect for a state title contender. LM had over 500 offensive yards in this game. Boone must have had close to 500 as well. With LM's defensive weaknesses exposed, it should be interesting to see how Mandarin approaches their rematch next week. Also, if LM's running back, Isiah Thomas is not able to return (sadly, he looks like he may have sustained a bad injury although I can't say for sure), LM's running game is severely impacted as the backup they used is not nearly as good. I have still picked them to win this upcoming week and still feel they have the offense to get them to state and maybe win it all, but all of a sudden they are looking a lot more vulnerable.

I'll ask Dan.

R - Pahokee vs Williston Holmes County vs Chipley Sneads vs Blountstown 1S - Moore Haven vs Naples Community Ocala Trinity Catholic vs Holy Trinity Episcopal 1M - Providence vs Orlando Christian Prep Cardinal Newman vs Benjamin 2S - Pensacola Catholic vs Walton Wakulla vs Florida High 2M - Bolles vs Raines Tampa Catholic vs Berkeley Prep 3S - Lincoln vs Choctaw Eau Gallie vs Sebring 3M - Armwood vs Tampa Bay Tech Gaither vs Largo 4S - Bartram Trail vs Niceville Lake Minneola vs Wiregrass Ranch University Orange City vs Deland 4M - Miami Palmetto vs Western Mandarin vs Lake Mary Picks bold underscored.

Very interesting read. Thanks for posting. I was a college sophomore at the University of the West Indies when that game was played.

Lake Mary's running back went down early in the first quarter to a vicious hit. But that does not explain Boone scoring 38 on them after they blanked Mainland the week before.

Sorry for the loss Ray, this year was not Osceola's.

DeLand gave up a lot of points last night. But Darlington should be able to stop the single wing. As for Vero Beach, on paper they should match up well against TC, but they did not show it last time.

I kind of figured Winter Park was a fraud. Very weak schedule and a few unimpressive performances in their record against relatively weak teams. Not surprised Mandarin took them down.

Thanks for posting this so quickly. This way I don't have to rely on spotty Jamaican Internet. I will have my picks up by Sunday before I go.