OldSchoolLion

YEP ..and what is one thing in common about the state titles won by the team's they coached?

Name 4 things that coaches Deran Wiley of Raines and John Peacock of Venice have in common? Hint: The answers I am looking for are not things such as "They are both guys" "Their teams wear uniforms" "They both own a whistle" etc

...my view as an outsider...2 things...tradition and coaching continuity. Columbia has a history of winning going WAY back and they have had little coaching turnover since the mid 90's. Columbia had a seasoned coach take them to quite a few playoff wins and now they have a hometown hero who appears to be there for the long haul. Much of Gainesville's historic playoff success has taken place this decade, and I believe they have gone through quite a few coaches since the 90's.

Polk County got pounded by 3 major hurricanes in 2004 and both Lakeland and Lake Gibson made the finals that year. Not to minimize what happened this year, but I don't think it had a major impact on 1A-4A this season. This decline in competition has been coming on for the past 15 years. Look at the data below. For many years, it was rare to see the same team coming back to the title game three years in a row...not anymore. Why? ...see the end of my last post 1973-2002 Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row Glades Central (3A) Suwanee (3A) Union County (3A) NFC (1A) University Christian (1A) Glades Day (1A) 2003-Present (FL went to 7 classes in 2003) - Teams Appearing in Title Games 3 Years or More in a Row Apopka (8A) St Thomas Aquinas-did it twice (5A and 7A) Armwood-did it twice (4A and 6A) Miami Central (6A) American Heritage/Plantation (5A) - not 3 years in a row, but did do 4 appearances in 5 years Lakeland (5A) ST Thomas Aquinas (5A) Bolles(4A) Booker T Washington (4A) Pahokee (2B) Trinity Christian (2A) Prior to 2003, I don't believe there had a eever been a class title game with the same teams three years in a row. Since 2003... Title Games for 3 Years or More in a Row Armwood vs Central in 6A Lakeland vs St Thomas in 5A Bolles vs Booker T in 4A Why do people love March madness? ...partly because of the allure of the "Cinderella story" and the upsets that occur. Things are becoming more and more predictable in some of the classes in our playoffs because of the lack depth of competitive teams. It is more important to "win" than to play in a competitive league.

..some interesting background In the early days, when there were 4 classes, most of the private schools were in 1A. You had a handful of the better private schools in the classes above, but they were kept "under control" by the tough competition. For instance, in the 70's, Chaminade and Bolles played in 3A. Between 1970-1985, no private school won a state title outside 1A. That changed in 1986, when Bolles won the 2A state title, one year after the increase to 5 classes. Ever since, as the total number of classes have increased, there has been a gradual stratification of the private schools. In the 90's it was common to have 2 private school state champions(1A and 2A). In 2003, when we shifted to 7 classes, we had 3 private school state champions.(1A, 2A and 3A). From 2008-2010, 7 of the 8 state finalists in 1A-4A were private schools and Aquinas was a finalist in 5A 2 of those 3 years. In 2013, American Heritage won the 5A state title. Now you had very strong private schools in 8A(Columbus), 7A(Aquinas), 5A(AHP), 4ABolles, plus the loaded 3A and 2A classes. As the lower classes have become smaller in size, and the strength of individual upper classes have become diluted, and the private schools have become spread out, it has allowed for certain private schools to dominate. Now add the variable of the loose transfer rules and.... it is a matter of time before we have 5 private school champions. It nearly happened in 2014 and 2016.

With all due respect to Vero, comparing this year's Oscar Smith team to St Edwards when Mainland played them...not even close. There probably weren't many teams in the country who could have beaten them at home. Some had St Edwards amongst the top 10 in the country that year.

I respect your opinion. ...my thoughts on why I would put my $ on Mainland if they took Riverview's place that night in Vero. Vero went 8 weeks playing cupcakes...all blowout wins. Mainland played three state finalists plus tough Apopka and Norland squads. I think those schedules were a big reason why Mainland played Carol City close and Vero Beach fell apart...HUGE differences in how battle-tested the teams were at the end of the season. I sure could be wrong...just telling you how I would have bet and why.

I doubt Mainland would be dodging anyone. Mainland has won the games they are supposed to when playing tough competition-see below. And they have shown they can win tough games on the road, too. Most teams would struggle against the teams that have beaten them. I looked at Vero's schedules for the past 12 seasons, and I do not see a "quality" road win(ie Top 50 Fl team) outside of the win at Oscar Smith this past season. Even this year, I would have picked Mainland over Vero...easily if the game had been played at the end of the season in Daytona. I base this on what I saw in the Vero vs Riverview game. Mainland Vs. FL Top 50/Ranked OOS Opponents *=Playoff Game Underline = regular season "away" game Bold = "win" 2017 Apopka, Bartram Trail, Cocoa, Dr Phillips, *Carol City 2016 Bartram Trail, Dr Phillips, *Sebastian River, *Carol City 2015 Dr Phillips, St Edward(OH), *Heritage(Palm Bay), *Miami Central 2014 Lake Mary, Deland, American Heritage(PL), Oviedo, *Edgewater, *S Fort Myers, *Miami Central 2013 American Heritage(PL), Ft Piece Central, *Miami Central 2012 Palm Bay, *Gibson, *Winter Haven, *Naples 2011 Deland, Palm Bay, *Winter Haven, *Naples, Miami Central 2010 West Point(MS) 2009 Miami Central, Osceola, Deland(regular season), *Deland(playoffs) 2008 Trinity Catholic, *Fleming Island

Sorry, hit button by accident

Jeff McLean...34 years at Merritt Island. No coincidence that only 4 public schools have appeared in more playoff games over the years. https://www.floridatoday.com/story/sports/high-school/2016/01/17/merritt-islands-mclean-goes-into-faca-hall-fame/78855540/

Great respect for MC program. Whenever I have seen them play, they were VERY one dimensional. Reminded me of Georgia Tech...not built for coming back quickly. Seems like over the years they run over people and then don't know what to do when they meet a really stout defense, ie Bolles. AH Delray and Chaminade both stomped 'em in the state finals. Shut down the run and it was all over...no substantial passing threat.

Columbia has owned Gainesville and Bucholz over the years, but when U gonna beat ur big brother Madison County. Ya'll are 0-6 since 2004 and never within 10 points of them. I guess they are a much bigger school and that gives them an advantage.

UR 0-1 vs juggernaut Eastside in the playoffs.. Check your history(2006), grasshopper.

Tim Jernigan...proof that players from no-name high school programs can get "found" by colleges and the pros Lucky nobody from there is on the board http://www.maxpreps.com/news/2l2TyxLAsk-Bh9vf82XOBw/super-bowl-lii--where-the-patriots-and-eagles-went-to-high-school.htm

Below is a comparison of average point differentials in playoff games over the past two years. For example, this year’s 8 semifinal games in Classes 1A-4A were decided by point totals of 40, 35, 41, 46, 21, 38, 20, and 18, for an average point differential of 32 points per game. I have also provided some historical data for perspective. As you will see, the numbers for 1A-4A this year were extreme. I don’t recall anything even remotely close in the history of FL hs football. Excluding state title games, 26/56, or 46% of 1A-4A playoff games were decided by 35 points or more and only 5/56(2 in 3A and 1 in each in the other 3 classes) , or 11% of playoff games were decided by 7 points or less. It is rare to have a year where at least half of the state semifinals in the lower classes would not be decided by 14 points or less. 2014 was such a year, but even then 3 of 8 state semifinals were decided by 14 points or less. This year 1A-4A had none, which is probably unprecedented. Was this year a one-off? If this year was supposed to reflect an improvement in parity for the lower classes, the results were not supportive. 2017 Semifinals (1A-4A=32) (5A-8A=16) Regional finals (1A-4A=28) (5A-8A=18) Regional semifinals (1A-4A=29) (5A-8A=13) 2016 Semifinals (1A-4A=14) (5A-8A=21) Regional finals (1A-4A=11) (5A-8A=17) Regional semifinals (1A-4A=30) (5A-8A=16) The first number below is the average point differential for 1A-4A state semifinal games from that year, and the second number is the same for 5A-8A games. 2015 19/21 2014 23/18 2013 17/11 2012 19/16 The first number below is the average point differential for 1A-4A state semifinal games from that year, and the second number is the same for 5A-6A games. There were no 7A/8A classes at that time. 2002 17/16 2001 13/16 2000 19/6 1999 11/14

My impression is that Southridge, Coral Gables, and South Dade all can vary quite a bit from season to season. Southridge was a consistent power back in the 80's and 90's, but they never got their mojo back. I don't want to say their title last year was a fluke, but it still does not move them up to consistent contender for me. Same thing for South Dade with their title a few years back. The only team from down there I consider a consistent power is Columbus. This decade is probably the best I've seen in terms of making deep playoff runs. They have momentum to keep it going. Miami High last season was a total shocker to me. I don't know the story, so have no idea if it was a fluke or not. Miami this season...don't know where that came from. I cannot remember the last time they went anywhere in the playoffs.

..some thoughts. Deerfield Beach-always that team that is going to break out this year and then.... This same anticipation existed 35 years ago. So many "good" teams and only one trip to the finals. 10 coaches in 25 years. You cannot build a winner with that kind of history. I won't bet on them again..been burned too many times before. Boyd Anderson is another one that falls into the category of "historically underperforming." Western-It took them about 35 years to win their first playoff game. Need more time before being considered a consistent contender. Coach has been there 4 years, so on the right track. Had a pretty weak regular season schedule last year, lacking quality wins. Miramar-4 coaches in 5 years, but program did not fall apart despite all of the turmoil. New coach had good success his first season. One of most consistent programs in Broward and they know how to win tough games. Atlantic-Coach is hometown boy in his first coaching job-nice story. Just finished his fifth season . Last season was fourth season in a row that they won one or more playoff games. Program had not done that for 40 years. Steady progress over the five years with momentum moving forward. I like their chance of winning the region again, if not beyond.

...no offense to Chaminade, but they need to learn how to compete against teams in their back yard. There were 10 teams in Dade/Broward last year who could have beaten them or come very close. In terms of "quality wins" over the traditional powers...over the past two years, they beat BTW this year and Miramar by 1. That's it.

Chaminade is strong today, but I would not bet the house they will be at the same level in 5 years. If they are, that would be a huge accomplishment. They have not been been able to sustain the program at a high level of performance over the years. They had a big dropoff after Guandolo left and the same could happen today if they lost their present coach. AHDelray, University, N Broward Prep, AB McCarthy, Oxbridge, Pace...all have had flashes of brilliance and then faded. Columbus and Aquinas are the only schools I would put money on to have a strong team in 5 years and it comes down to two things...a tradition of winning seasons over MANY years, year in and year out, and a coach who is/was there for a LONG time. Chaminade and those other teams are lacking in those areas.

Below is a comparison of point spreads in Class 3A and 4A playoff games before and after class numbers were cut in half. I randomly picked "28 points" to define a blowout. Between seasons 2013-2017, there were 8 classes. Class 3A and 4A teams played a total of 150 playoff games. 68(45%) of those games were decided by 28 or more points Between seasons 2000-2003, there were 6 classes. Classes 3A and 4A had about double the number of teams of the same classes today. Class 3A and 4A teams played a total of 248 playoff games. 60(24%) of those games were decided by 28 or more points It appears the "cost" of reducing the class sizes was an increase in blowouts...24% versus 45%. Even with the new system this year, the data did not change compared to the past 4 years...about 40-50% of playoff games being blowouts I think it will remain the same unless class sizes are enlarged again or teams in the classes are somehow manipulated to allow for more parity. Class 3A and 4A Playoff games decided by 28 or more points in seasons 2013-2017 - 15 playoff games per class each year 4A 2017 - 8, 3A 2017- 7 4A 2016 - 8, 3A 2016 - 6 4A 2015 - 6, 3A 2015 - 7 4A 2014 - 7, 3A 2014 - 6 4A 2013 - 7, 3A 2013 - 6 Class 3A and 4A Playoff games decided by 28 or more points in seasons 2000-2003 - 31 playoff games per class each year 4A 2003 - 9, 3A 2003 - 8 4A 2002 - 6, 3A 2002 - 9 4A 2001 - 9, 3A 2001 - 4 4A 2000 - 10, 3A 2000 - 5

All of these places mentioned above are suburbs of LA or Denver, some fairly affluent. I am picturing a bunch of spoiled, well-off white kids getting off the bus with their expensive gadgets. What are they trying to accomplish? If the priority is "fun," forget football and let 'em go to Disney. If it is to get the experience of playing "far away," there are plenty of decent teams in Arizona and Utah, within a day's drive, and travel would be a LOT cheaper. If these parents have money to burn, there are people freezing to death in the streets of Denver. I'd be more supportive if these were inner city kids from LA going on a once-in-a-lifetime journey.

Imagine if 4A looked like this... With this scheme, it makes northern FL much more competitive in the lower classes (especially Region 2, ie Fort White played Bradford very close in regular season) and moves 2A/3A more closely to private school exclusivity, which some may find attractive. These 1A schools below have shown they can hang with most 4A schools, and am confident the five 2A/3A teams could as well. I understand some may never support this, but it is nice to dream. Here is the breakdown of the teams below: 4A-23 teams 3A-4 teams 2A-1 team 1A-16 teams Region 1-12 teams Marianna (4A) North Bay Haven Academy (4A) Taylor County (3A) Port St Joe (1A) Cottondale (1A) Blountstown (1A) Baker (1A) Holmes County (1A) Franklin County (1A) Chipley (1A) Madison County (1A) Dixie County (1A) Region 2 - 12 teams (11 if Raines moves up, which they could/should) Dunnellon (4A) West Nassau (4A) Trenton (4A) Raines (4A) Bradford (4A) Taylor(Pierson) (3A) Fort White (3A) Union County (1A) Wildwood (1A) Lafayette (1A) Hawthorne (1A) Crescent City (1A) Region 3 - 11 teams (10 if Cocoa moves up, which they could/should) Cocoa (4A) Cocoa Beach (4A) Lake Highland Prep (4A) Mount Dora (4A) Pahokee (4A) Glades Central (4A) Avon Park (4A) Lake Placid (4A) Moore Haven (2A) Frostproof (1A) Fort Meade (1A) Region 4 - 9 teams University (4A) North Broward Prep (4A) Coral Springs Charter (4A) Monsignor Pace (4A) Gulliver Prep (4A) Booker T Washington (4A) Bishop Verot (4A) Key West (4A) Marathon (3A)

Below is how the top 23 teams(the teams that did not have losing records during the regular season) in 1A fared versus 4A competition this year. 28 wins and 6 losses. Only 2 of the 6 losses were bad blowouts, and one of those involved Cocoa. I bet if you took the top 20 or so teams from 4A, the top 20 or so teams from 1A, and the few good public schools from 2A/3A (Taylor County, Taylor, Fort White and Moore Haven) and put them all together, you would have a very competitive class. Then if you took the remaining public schools from 1A-4A and put them in another class, sure you would have some really weak teams, but at least they could be somewhat competitive. And with a relegation system, teams could migrate between the two classes as they improve/decline. Frostproof lost to Avon Park 6-0 beat Teneroc 28-8 beat Mulberry 22-0 beat Lake Highland Prep 22-21 Lafayette beat PK Yonge 49-26 Wildwood beat PK Yonge 30-2 beat Umatilla 22-14 beat Interlachen 29-22 beat The Villages Charter 42-35 Pahokee beat Glades Central 33-27 loses to Cocoa 45-0 Madison County beat Dunnellon 24-21 Union County beat Interlachen 29-21 Baker beat Rutherford 32-21 beat S Walton 35-7 Holmes County beat Walton 54-14 beat Marianna 31-7 Chipley beat Marianna 21-17 lost to Walton 48-34 Blountstown beat Walton 48-14 Cottondale beat North Bay Haven Academy 42-22 Port St Joe beat Marianna 7-6 (OT) beat Rutherford 27-10 beat Walton 41-9 beat S Walton 37-0 Hawthorne beat Interlachen 16-14 beat PK Yonge 46-20 Franklin County lost to North Bay Haven Academy 20-0 Fort Meade lost to Avon Park 41-7 beat Tenoroc 48-0 Bozeman beat S Walton 63-28 beat North Bay Havenn Academy 42-14 Branford beat PK Yonge 14-6 Freeport lost to Walton 37-34

Did you check out those 2010 playoff brackets? If so, is it just me or are those much more intriguing that today? Whenever we make these splits/changes in classes, it can create opportunities for a class to get left very thin. One would hope if a team is dominating year after year, they would move up. In 2002, Pahokee was in Class 2A. They were competing against the likes of Bolles, Chaminade, Madison County, South Sumter(who was strong back then), and Monsignor Pace. In 2003, 2A got split into 2A and 2B, and Pahokee went to 2B. If not for a 7-point loss in 2005, Pahokee would have the state record with 6 consecutive state championships between 2003-2008. Most of their playoff games during this span were not even close. In 2009, Bolles and Chaminade moved down to 2B, ending Pahokee's reign. In the old days, things seemed to work on the honor system. Except for Class A, it was almost unheard of for a team to appear in 3 straight state title games. If a team was good enough, they would move up. For me, anytime a team has won 3 state championships in a row or appeared in 4 straight state championship games in the same class, it's probably time to start thinking about moving up, especially in the lower classes. Either of those feats is pretty rare. No team in the highest 2 classes(at the time) has ever won three state titles in a row. The "problem" historically has been when you have a team(s) in the lower classes that is dominating and does not move up. That said, Booker T would ideally already be in 5A. Both Chaminade and Cocoa will likely reach their third championship games in a row next year, so it would be nice if both moved up in class at the same time. Some of what we are seeing today has happened in the past. Back in the late in the late 80's, Godby and Clewiston moved up to 4A, leaving Suwannee wide open to reel off 4 straight state titles in 3A. They won the 4 championship games by a combined score of 150-46. In the mid 90's, 3A had a lot movement, leaving it weak and ripe for domination by Union County, who proceeded to reel off 3 straight state titles. As we have made more classes, the"problem" with the lower classes seems to be magnified. If we do not actively manage things, it may be a matter of time before we have another Pahokee.

...in a shocking chain of events, Joe "The Knight Killa" Rooks, a 4-pawn, University of Maryland chess recruit, has announced via Twitter he is transferring from public school IM Outahere Memorial to St Shome DaMoney. Scandal rocked Memorial last year when a fellow, male team member was accused of inappropriately touching a female player's bishops and Rooks' female coach, Stormy Spaniels, admitted to playing phone chess with a 16 year-old male player during the offseason. And in yet another incident, a freshmen player alleged that senior members of the team subjected him to a cruel hazing ritual known as "chessboarding," during which he was forced to stare at a chess board for 15 minutes with no access to social media. There was rumor that Rooks was very unhappy with his team's antiquated chess pieces, many of which allegedly have rough edges that caused finger injuries, requiring Rooks to play injured. Rooks also claimed that his coaches made his team play entire games without state-mandated latte breaks. New Memorial coach Ima Bully claims this is all "nonsense," and simply another case of private school recruiting. Bully stated, "How can I compete with these private school chess factories. These kids go over there, see themselves playing on the giant jumbotron, and it's all over. The kids today are different. It's not like the old days. We played chess with no protective equipment. It was nothing to play hours on end with a callus. And we didn't need a shiny "checkmate chain" hung around our necks every time we made a good move. These prima donnas show up on the first day of practice wanting to attack a guy's queen, and they cannot even grasp a pawn properly. The kids lack discipline today. Last year I had a player flagged for trash talking his opponent...something about the kid's glasses...he had the other kid in tears. And the parents blame me for not coaching them right. I can't win." ..with all of this heavy duty talk about playoffs, thought a little fun was in order. Sorry, off my meds today