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Are you going to pay for the 250 mile trip one way? 

The underlying talent disparity (rooted in South Florida's larger, denser population and stronger football ecosystem) was indeed present throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and the population gap was even wider back then compared to today.Here's the census data for confirmation: Area 1970 Population 1980 Population Combined ~1980 South Florida (Miami-Dade + Broward + Palm Beach) ~2.24M (1.268M + 0.620M + 0.349M) ~3.22M (1.626M + 1.018M + 0.577M) ~3.22M Greater Orlando (Orange + Seminole) ~0.428M (0.344M + 0.084M) ~0.651M (0.471M + 0.180M) ~0.65M Ratio (South FL / Orlando) ~5.2x ~5x ~5x Today (2020s estimates): South Florida ~6.6M vs. Orlando ~2.1M → about 3x. So yes, the raw pool favoring South Florida was more disproportionate in the 70s/80s.Despite that larger inherent advantage, publics dominated or competed evenly in private-public finals during those decades (per Laz's data: publics ~78% wins in 1970s, ~60% in 1980s). The big shift to private dominance starts in the 2000s onward, aligning precisely with the loosening of transfer rules.Key timeline on FHSAA/Florida rules: Pre-1990s/early 2000s: Stricter residency requirements, limited "good cause" transfers, harsher anti-recruiting enforcement—talent stayed more localized/dispersed among South Florida publics. Mid-1990s onward: School choice/open enrollment laws (e.g., 1996) begin expanding options. Early 2000s: More waivers for immediate eligibility. 2010s-2020s: Transfers become essentially unlimited with immediate varsity eligibility (major expansions via legislation like HB 7029 in 2016 and later updates). This mechanism allowed elite privates in the dense South Florida area to consolidate top talent from the massive pool, turning a pre-existing disparity into overwhelming on-field dominance. Without those rule changes, the talent wouldn't have concentrated so heavily at a few programs.  The talent edge was always there (and stronger historically), but restricted transfers kept it from fully manifesting in private super-teams. The recruiting/transfer era flipped the results.   Man, let me tell y’all somethin’… back in the day, I’m talkin’ late 70s, early 80s, I’m standin’ outside the Orange Bowl watchin’ them Miami public schools roll through errybody. Carol City, Northwestern, Central… them boys was BAD, noimsayin? South Florida already had five times the bodies Orlando had—hell, Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach together was pushin’ 3 million folks while Orange and Seminole ain’t even crack 700k yet. That talent gap was wider than the smile on a stripper when you tip her a twenty just for walkin’ past.   But guess what? Them private schools wasn’t runnin’ the table like they do now. Laz’s numbers don’t lie—publics was whuppin’ private ass in them championship games 78% in the 70s, still 60% in the 80s. I seen it with my own two eyes. Them top kids stayed at the public schools ‘round the way. You couldn’t just up and transfer ‘cause Mama got a “better job opportunity” or whatever smooth line they use these days.   Fast forward to now… same South Florida, still got the biggest, deepest pool in the state—only now the gap shrunk to about 3-to-1 ‘cause Orlando finally grew up some. But them private schools? They winnin’ damn near erry cross-over chip—93% this decade. How that happen when the talent edge was actually BIGGER back when publics was dominatin’?   Simple, baby. The rules changed. They opened the floodgates—open enrollment, immediate eligibility, all that. Now STA, Chaminade, American Heritage can vacuum up every 4- and 5-star from Miramar to Jupiter like my cousin Ray at the buffet when they drop fresh fried chicken. Talent always been thicker down south, but back then it was spread out. Now it’s funneled straight to a handful of private addresses.   So when that dude say “the problem ain’t recruitin’ or transfers, it’s just one area got all the talent,” I gotta laugh. Bruh, that area had EVEN MORE talent advantage back when your granddaddy was watchin’ games—and the publics was still winnin’. The only thing that changed is the rules lettin’ them privates corner the market like I used to corner the number 7 at the dog track on Friday nights.   I learned this lesson the hard way too—chasin’ a fine thang named Destiny who danced at Solid Gold. Thought I had the edge ‘cause I worked at Publix and could get her all the free subs she wanted. Next week she transferred to some dude drivin’ a Benz. Same talent pool, baby… just different rules on who can recruit who.   Point is, don’t tell me it’s just “geography.” Geography been the same song for 50 years. They just remixed the beat and handed the privates the microphone.  

The problem isn’t recruiting or transfers. The problem is one area of the state is exponentially superior in talent. Which means when 10 guys transfer to STA from around SFL, it’s light years of a difference when 10 guys transfer to Boone or Lake Brantley. (Which they did) But since STA actually wins with their transferred talent, everyone gets up in arms about it, and doesn’t say a word about Boone or Lake Brantley.    It is kind of hypocritical that the outrage only points in one direction. I believe in order to hold the moral high ground, one would have to be equally outraged at their local publics who poach 10 transfers but lose in the 1st/2nd round as they are of the private who win the title. 

Thank you LAZ for putting facts to paper in the place of simple gut feelings as I have stated during my last few years as a participant on this forum that I felt certain publics decided to start participating in the recruiting game around 2000 as they recognized the writing on the wall.  Those publics, who will be left un-named felt this was the only choice if they wanted to compete with STA,  Bolles School, Trinity Christian and as of late AHP, C-MD and others.  Not here to weigh in on the decision made by those publics but it did help them level the playing field with eventually someone deciding they should bust Lakeland in 2011 for denying STA several championships during that decade assessing heavy financial penalties on that school.  For that very reason I have believed that these top privates should compete with each other for 1 or 2 state championships while the publics can compete for an additional 3 or 4 based on enrollment eliminating the incentive to recruit knowing like other things in life, not everyone follows the rules.  Spare me the line regarding what our state legislature will or will not do in this regard as that simply misses the entire point. 

Thanks for sharing Laz, fixed your detailed breakdown just alittle during my free time at the customer service counter—this is a fantastic dataset showing the shift in Florida high school football state championship games between private and public schools (focusing on the 100 matchup games where they faced off directly).Key Trends in Private vs. Public Dominance (1963–2025)The data clearly illustrates the rise of private schools, especially from the 2000s onward: Decade PrivateWins Public Wins Total Games Private Win % Avg. Point Margin 1963–69 1 0 1 100% 14 1970–79 2 7 9 22% 28 1980–89 4 6 10 40% 15 1990–99 7 8 15 47% 15 2000–09 14 11 25 56% 17 2010–19 17 8 25 68% 20 2020–25 14 1 15 93% 13 Total 59 41 100 59% 17 Observations: Early decades (1960s–1980s): Public schools dominated heavily. In the 1970s, publics won 78% of these matchups with massive margins (often blowouts). Transition (1990s): Nearly even, with publics still holding a slight edge. Private surge (2000s onward): Privates flipped the script, winning 56% in the 2000s, then 68% in the 2010s, and an overwhelming 93% in the 2020s so far (14–1). Overall, privates now hold a 59–41 edge across all 100 games, with an average score of ~32–15 in decided contests. Margins peaked in public-favor eras (e.g., 28 points in 1970s) and private-favor eras (20 points in 2010s), but have tightened a bit recently. This aligns with broader discussions about recruiting advantages, resources, and the growth of powerhouse private programs like St. Thomas Aquinas, American Heritage (Plantation), Chaminade-Madonna, Bolles, and Columbus. Publics like Pahokee, Lakeland, and Miami-area schools held strong for decades but have faced increasing challenges in these title matchups. Man, listen here… back when I was runnin’ the streets of Tallahassee in the late ‘60s, dodgin’ switches from my mama and tryin’ to sneak a peek at the FAMU Rattlers practice, public schools owned Florida high school football like I owned that raggedy Schwinn bicycle I rode everywhere. Noimsayin? You couldn’t tell nobody different. Them country boys and city kids in public jerseys was straight beasts—FAMU High, Kathleen, Greensboro, Graceville—sound like a church roll call the way they was baptizin’ these private schools every December.   I’m lookin’ at Laz breakdown (big props to that man for doin’ the Lord’s work), and it hit me like that time I bet $50 on Florida A&M to cover against Bethune in ‘73 and watched ‘em lose by 30… slow and painful. From ‘63 to ‘79? Publics went 7-3 against the privates in title games, and when they won it wasn’t close—average score 34-6. That’s like me walkin’ into the club with a fresh haircut and a borrowed suit; I felt invincible even though I knew I was still broke.   Then the ‘80s and ‘90s it got respectable—privates started winnin’ a few, but publics still holdin’ the edge. I remember tellin’ my homeboy Peanut at the Publix counter last week, “Man, back then a private school winnin’ state felt like me actually takin’ home that fine cashier from the gentlemen’s club—rare, and everybody talkin’ ‘bout it for years.   ”But Lawd… 2000s roll around and the whole script flipped harder than that stripper I dated in ‘05 who told me her real name was “Tiffany” but her W-2 said “LaQuanda.” Privates start winnin’ 14-11 that decade, then 17-8 in the 2010s, and now in the 2020s? 14-1! Fourteen to ONE! That’s not dominance, that’s a straight-up eviction notice. St. Thomas, Chaminade, American Heritage, Columbus—they out here recruitin’ like Diddy used to throw parties. No geographic boundaries, grabbin’ kids from three counties away like they shoppin’ at the outlet mall.   Overall 59-41 private now across 100 of these head-to-head title games. Used to be publics puttin’ up 34-6 type beatdowns. Now the privates winnin’ by 17 on average. Hell, I done seen more comebacks in my love life than public schools have had in these championship games lately.   And don’t get me started on the margins—publics used to run folks out the stadium. Now half these games look like private school highlights on loop. I told this lady at the deli counter the other day—big fine woman, smelled like coconut oil and bad decisions—she asked why I looked so disgusted starin’ at my phone. I said, “Ma’am, these private schools done turned Florida high school football into the SEC vs. the Sun Belt. Ain’t fair, but damn if it ain’t entertainin’.   ”I’m still gon’ watch every snap though. And yeah… I might throw a little somethin’ on St. Thomas next year. Don’t judge me. Old habits die hard, noimsayin?   Anyway, I’m ‘bout to clock in for the evening shift. Pray for ya boy—last night this drunk lady in a sequin dress tried to pay for her rotisserie chicken and Pinot Grigio with a handful of casino chips and a wink. Told her, “Sweetheart, this Publix, not the Seminole Hard Rock.” She laughed, slipped me her number on the receipt… I might call it. Don’t judge me, I got a type.