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MADCO IMPACT FLA HIGH COCOA BP JEFFERSON EASTSIDE CYPRESS LAKE ED WHITE NAPLES BEACHSIDE MCARTHUR EVANS LENNARD MONARCH PLANT DR PHILLIPS WESTERN SOUTH DADE SUMNER

So I spent a good chunk of yesterday going bracket by bracket and evaluating where the teams are currently and where I think everything will end up in a few weeks. Feel free to make your own or comment on it but I feel pretty confident on most of these results    Also sidenote I'll revisit these in the regional finals and give my picks at that stage (with the exception of 1R which I underlined my picks in regional finals)   Florida Postseason Breakdown  *first round picks are underlined*   1R Overall, a quick glance at this bracket I would identify Madison County and Hawthorne as the best two teams in the bracket and I expect them to meet in the finals. Any other matchup and the finals will be a blowout Regional finals predictions  Bracket 1 Blountstown vs Madison County  Bracket 2 Taylor County vs Pahokee  Bracket 3 Chiefland vs Baker Bracket 4 Williston vs Hawthorne    Brackets  Bracket 1 1 Blountstown vs 16 Jay   8 Chipley vs 9 Madison County   Bracket 2 4 Taylor County vs 13 Trenton 5 Pahokee vs 12 Fort Meade   Bracket 3 3 Chiefland vs 14 Sneads 6 Baker vs 11 Liberty County   Bracket 4 7 Williston vs 10 Lafayette 2 Hawthorne vs 15 Branford           1A This class is Chaminade Madonna and everyone else. The only question will be which team will win enough games to be the school who loses to Chaminade in the finals Regional finals predictions  Region 1 University Christian vs Trinity Christian  Region 2  Carrollwood Day vs Clearwater Central Catholic  Region 3 St Petersburg Catholic vs Cardinal Newman  Region 4 Chaminade Madonna vs True North      Brackets  Region 1   1 University Christian vs 8 Trinity Catholic 4 Episcopal School of Jacksonville vs 5 Impact Christian Academy 2 Trinity Christian Academy vs 7 Providence School 3 Maclay vs 6 North Florida Educational Institute     Region 2   1 Carrollwood Day vs 8 Father Lopez 4 Melbourne Central Catholic vs 5 Orlando Christian Prep 2 Clearwater Central Catholic vs 7 Indian Rocks Christian 3 Lakeland Christian vs 6 Victory Christian Academy      Region 3 1 St. Petersburg Catholic vs 8 Evangelical Christian 4 Neumann vs 5 Southwest Florida Christian 2 Cardinal Newman vs 7 Benjamin 3 Community School of Naples vs 6 Northside Christian   Region 4 1 Chaminade-Madonna vs 8 St. John Paul II Academy 4 Miami Edison vs 5 Westminster Christian 2 True North vs 7 Palmer Trinity 3 Saint Andrew's vs 6 Archbishop Carroll       2A This is a class that looks wide open to some out there but for me when I evaluate this class a few teams specifically stand out to me. Bolles, Cocoa and Cardinal Mooney. Right now the best of this group is Bolles      Regional finals predictions  Region 1  Bolles vs Pensacola Catholic  Region 2  Bradford vs Cocoa  Region 3 Cardinal Mooney vs Glades Central  Region 4 Lasalle vs Cardinal Gibbons      Brackets  Region 1   1 Bolles vs 8 Walton   4 Florida High vs 5 Baldwin   2 Pensacola Catholic vs 7 Bozeman   3 South Walton vs 6 Freeport   Region 2   1 Bradford vs 8 Avon Park   4 The Villages Charter vs 5 Berkeley Prep   2 Calvary Christian vs 7 Santa Fe 3 Cocoa vs 6 Newberry     Region 3 1 Cardinal Mooney vs 8 North Broward Prep 4 Calvary Christian Academy vs 5 Bishop Verot   2 Lakewood vs 7 Somerset Academy - Canyons   3 Glades Central vs 6 King's Academy   Region 4 1 La Salle vs 8 Somerset Academy (Silver Palms) 4 Gulliver Prep vs 5 Ransom Everglades 2 Cardinal Gibbons vs 7 Monsignor Pace 3 Miami Killian vs 6 Miami Carol City       3A When I look at this classification I have no doubts on two things. 1 if Raines doesn't running clock every team between them and the state finals they are gonna get blown out to whoever comes out of Miami Central vs Miami Northwestern and 2 the winner of Central vs Northwestern will win 3a likely in a running clock.   Regional finals predictions: Region 1 Raines vs Panama City Bay  Region 2 Eastside vs Eau Gallie  Region 3 Sarasota Booker vs Tampa Jefferson  Region 4 Miami Central vs Miami Northwestern        Brackets  Region 1 1 Raines vs 8 Baker County 4 Yulee vs 5 West Florida 2 Panama City Bay vs 7 Godby 3 Bishop Kenny vs 6 Wakulla   Region 2 1 Bishop Moore vs 8 Hernando 4 Eastside vs 5 South Sumter 2 Eau Gallie vs 7 Tavares 3 Merritt Island vs 6 Titusville Region 3 1 Sarasota Booker vs 8 Mulberry 4 Chamberlain vs 5 Bayshore 2 Nature Coast Tech vs 7 Gibbs 3 Tampa Jefferson vs 6 Boca Ciega   Region 4 1 Miami Northwestern vs 8 Somerset Academy 4 Key West vs 5 Cypress Lake 2 Miami Central vs 7 St. Brendan 3 Lely vs 6 Estero     4A This class as a whole is more wide open than in the past but the regions on the north end have very little depth. Region 1 has 3 realistic contenders with St Augustine,  Choctawhatchee and Columbia but all have question marks on their potential run and all would likely struggle to match up with a team like American Heritage Plantation who despite entering the playoffs at 4-5 is probably the best team in 4A. In Region 2 outside of Jones and Lake Wales I would identify Vanguard as a potential dark horse. Region 3 will come down to Port Charlotte and Tampa Jesuit.  Region 4 likely comes down to the rematch between AHP and Archbishop McCarthy.     Regional finals predictions  Region 1 Columbia vs St Augustine  Region 2 Orlando Jones vs Lake Wales  Region 3 Tampa Jesuit vs Port Charlotte    Region 4 Archbishop McCarthy vs American Heritage Plantation      Brackets  Region 1 1 St. Augustine vs 8 Arnold 4 Ed White vs 5 Pine Forest   2 Choctawhatchee vs 7 Booker T. Washington 3 Columbia vs 6 Rickards   Region 2 1 Orlando Jones vs 8 Deltona 4 Auburndale vs 5 Vanguard 2 Zephyrhills vs 7 Rockledge 3 Lake Wales vs 6 New Smyrna Beach     Region 3 1 Tampa Jesuit vs 8 Osceola 4 Naples vs 5 South Fort Myers   2 Port Charlotte vs 7 Dunbar 3 Clearwater vs 6 Blake   Region 4   1 Archbishop McCarthy vs 8 Hialeah 4 Miami Norland vs 5 Jensen Beach 2 American Heritage Plantation vs 7 John Carroll Catholic 3 Dillard vs 6 Plantation     5A Overall regions 1 2 and 4 are solid regions while Region 3 is one of the weakest large school postseason brackets. Manatee probably rolls in Region 3 but they will hit a brick wall in the final 4. The other 3 regions should be competitive and lead to a great elite 8 game for this classification. St Thomas Aquinas should be the favorite to win their 7th consecutive state title when looking at this classification.      Regional finals predictions: Region 1 Ponte Vedra vs Mainland  Region 2 Edgewater vs Tampa Gaither  Region 3 Riverdale vs Bradenton Manatee  Region 4 St Thomas Aquinas vs Atlantic Delray Beach      Brackets  Region 1 1 Ponte Vedra vs 8 Niceville 4 Beachside vs 5 Milton 2 Mainland vs 7 Middleburg 3 Mosley vs 6 Lincoln     Region 2 1 Edgewater vs 8 Lake Gibson 4 Tampa Bay Tech vs 5 Sebring 2 Lakeland vs 7 Wesley Chapel 3 Tampa Gaither vs 6 Winter Springs   Region 3 1 Riverdale vs 8 North Fort Myers 4 Immokalee vs 5 Pinellas Park 2 Cape Coral vs 7 Gulf Coast 3 Bradenton Manatee vs 6 Charlotte   Region 4 1 St. Thomas Aquinas vs 8 Heritage 4 Coconut Creek vs 5 Mater Academy Charter 2 Atlantic Delray Beach vs 7 North Miami 3 Martin County vs 6 McArthur     6A Overall a really good classification in terms of depth. Buchholz, Mandarin, Armwood, West Boca Raton and Miami Southridge all stand out here in this class and any are capable of winning 6A.    Regional finals prediction Region 1 Buchholz vs Mandarin  Region 2 Armwood vs Osceola  Region 3 Palmetto vs West Boca Raton Region 4 Miami Southridge vs Monarch      Brackets: Region 1 1 Buchholz vs 8 Oviedo 4 Nease vs 5 Oakleaf  2 Mandarin vs 7 Crestview  3 Pace vs 6 Evans   Region 2 1 Armwood vs 8 Melbourne  4 Viera vs 5 Riverview 2 South Lake vs 7 Plant 3 Osceola vs 6 Durant  Region 3 1 Palmetto vs 8 Wiregrass Ranch  4 Lennard vs 5 Mitchell  2 West Boca Raton vs 7 Largo 3 Parrish Community vs 6 East Lake  Region 4 1 Miami Southridge vs 8 Nova 4 Flanagan vs 5 Piper  2 West Broward vs 7 South Plantation  3 Monarch vs Doral Academy        7A This class is wide open and has plenty of teams who could realistically walk away as state champions in this bracket. Its tough to say who the favorite is but it would likely be Venice at this stage.    Regional finals predictions: Region 1 Deland vs Lake Mary  Region 2  Venice vs Sarasota Riverview  Region 3 Vero Beach vs Palm Beach Central  Region 4 Miami Palmetto vs Western      Brackets 1 Deland vs 8 Creekside  4 Boone vs 5 Winter Park 2 Lake Mary vs 7 Hagerty  3 Spruce Creek vs 6 Sanford Seminole  Region 2 1 Venice vs 8 Ridge Community  4 West Orange vs 5 Plant City  2 Sarasota Riverview vs 7 Winter Haven  3 Sumner vs 6 Ocoee    Region 3  1 Vero Beach vs 8 East Ridge  4 St Cloud vs 5 Lake Nona  2 Jupiter vs 7 Dr Phillips  3 Fort Pierce Central vs 6 Palm Beach Central  Region 4  1 Miami Palmetto vs 8 Coral Glades 4 Santaluces vs 5 Columbus  2 Spanish River vs 7 Western  3 Goleman vs 6 South Dade 

Also the other issue i have with the current formula comes from the fact that teams who start higher in the preseason have the higher floor and ceiling. Let's say one team went 10-1 last year and another went 5-6. Even if both teams finish with the same record and have similar sos, the team who went 10-1 the prior year would finish significantly higher because their formula weighs the previous season finish into the results 

But the result of said seeding shows that the formula and whatever is used puts way too much weight on record.  Like I agree a team shouldn't have sos weighted so high that a team goes up more for losing than winning.   However under no realistic circumstances should between 2 undefeated teams the team with the LOWER SOS be rated higher 

Here are my Regional "In State" Schedule Strength rankings heading into the playoffs. It's always interesting to see if being "battle tested" has an impact on post season performance.  CLASS 1A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Trinity Christian (Jacksonville)  1.4030 1 University Christian (Jacksonville) 1.3366 2 Providence (Jacksonville) 1.2640 3 Trinity Catholic (Ocala) 1.2615 4 Impact Christian (Jacksonville) 1.0636 5 North Florida Educational (Jacksonville) 1.0158 6 Maclay (Tallahassee) 1.0132 7 Episcopal (Jacksonville) 0.9972 8 CLASS 1A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Melbourne Central Catholic  1.4749 1 Clearwater Central Catholic 1.3666 2 Carrollwood Day (Tampa) 1.3025 3 Lakeland Christian 1.2371 4 Orlando Christian Prep 1.2326 5 Indian Rocks Christian (Largo) 1.1964 6 Victory Christian (Lakeland) 1.1861 7 Father Lopez (Daytona Beach) 0.8378 8 CLASS 1A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Cardinal Newman (West Palm Beach) 1.4814 1 Benjamin (Palm Beach Gardens) 1.4284 2 Community School (Naples) 1.2614 3 Evangelical Christian (Fort Myers)  1.1985 4 St. John Neumann (Naples) 1.1590 5 St. Petersburg Catholic 1.1391 6 Northside Christian (St. Petersburg) 1.1033 7 Southwest Florida Christian (Ft. Myers) 0.9463 8 CLASS 1A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank Chaminade (Hollywood)  1.4746 1 Miami Edison 1.3848 2 True North (Miami) 1.3649 3 St. John Paul II (Boca Raton)  1.1860 4 St. Andrew's (Boca Raton) 1.1682 5 Archbishop Carroll (Miami) 0.9805 6 Westminster Christian (Miami) 0.9649 7 Palmer Trinity (Miami) 0.9114 8 CLASS 2A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Florida High "FSU" (Tallahassee) 1.4477 1 Bolles (Jacksonville) 1.4142 2 Pensacola Catholic 1.2362 3 Walton (DeFuniak Springs)  1.2285 4 South Walton (Santa Rosa Beach) 1.2214 5 Freeport  1.1521 6 Baldwin 1.1300 7 Bozeman (Panama City) 1.1196 8 CLASS 2A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Cocoa 1.4852 1 Berkeley Prep (Tampa) 1.4767 2 Calvary Christian (Clearwater) 1.4022 3 Newberry  1.3260 4 Bradford (Starke)  1.2726 5 The Villages 1.1704 6 Santa Fe (Alachua) 1.1148 7 Avon Park 0.9540 8 CLASS 2A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Bishop Verot (Fort Myers) 1.4888 1 Cardinal Mooney (Sarasota) 1.4064 2 Lakewood (St. Petersburg) 1.3377 3 Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale) 1.3051 4 King’s Academy (West Palm Beach) 1.3028 5 Somerset Canyons (Boynton Beach) 1.2969 6 Glades Central (Belle Glade) 1.1859 7 North Broward Prep (Coconut Creek)  1.1612 8 CLASS 2A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank Monsignor Pace (Miami) 1.4025 1 Cardinal Gibbons (Fort Lauderdale) 1.3946 2 Miami Carol City 1.3045 3 Gulliver Prep (Pinecrest) 1.2881 4 Miami Killian 1.2817 5 Ransom Everglades (Miami) 1.1983 6 LaSalle (Miami) 1.1455 7 Somerset Silver Palms (Miami) 1.0553 8 CLASS 3A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Godby (Tallahassee)  1.3522 1 Raines (Jacksonville) 1.3336 2 Baker County (Glen St. Mary) 1.3074 3 Bishop Kenny (Jacksonville) 1.2735 4 West Florida (Pensacola) 1.2589 5 Wakulla (Crawfordville) 1.2126 6 Bay (Panama City) 1.2080 7 Yulee 1.1984 8 CLASS 3A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Merritt Island  1.4588 1 Eau Gallie (Melbourne) 1.4310 2 Titusville 1.3699 3 South Sumter (Bushnell) 1.3205 4 Bishop Moore (Orlando) 1.2872 5 Eastside (Gainesville) 1.2705 6 Tavares 1.2291 7 Hernando (Brooksville) 0.9789 8 CLASS 3A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Booker (Sarasota) 1.3869 1 Boca Ciega (Gulfport) 1.3221 2 Bayshore (Bradenton) 1.2851 3 Gibbs (St. Petersburg) 1.2322 4 Nature Coast Tech (Brooksville) 1.1202 5 Mulberry 1.1166 6 Chamberlain (Tampa) 1.0161 7 Jefferson (Tampa) 0.9897 8 CLASS 3A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank Miami Northwestern 1.4206 1 Miami Central 1.3050 2 St. Brendan (Miami)  1.2979 3 Key West 1.2900 4 Somerset Academy (Pembroke Pines) 1.2683 5 Lely (Naples) 1.2568 6 Cypress Lake (Fort Myers) 1.1726 7 Estero 1.0804 8 CLASS 4A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Pine Forest (Pensacola) 1.4322 1 Rickards (Tallahassee) 1.4211 2 St. Augustine  1.3710 3 Arnold (Panama City Beach) 1.3707 4 Columbia (Lake City)  1.3473 5 Choctawhatchee (Fort Walton Beach) 1.2968 6 Washington (Pensacola)  1.2043 7 Ed White (Jacksonville) 1.2012 8 CLASS 4A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Rockledge  1.4616 1 Jones (Orlando) 1.4272 2 Lake Wales 1.4084 3 Auburndale 1.2924 4 Deltona 1.2756 5 New Smyrna Beach 1.2418 6 Vanguard (Ocala) 1.2414 7 Zephyrhills  1.2260 8 CLASS 4A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Clearwater  1.4086 1 Naples 1.3605 2 Port Charlotte 1.3454 3 South Fort Myers 1.2907 4 Jesuit (Tampa)  1.2208 5 Blake (Tampa) 1.2134 6 Dunbar (Fort Myers) 1.2026 7 Osceola (Seminole) 1.1014 8 CLASS 4A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank American Heritage (Plantation) 1.6149 1 Miami Norland 1.5381 2 Archbishop McCarthy (Southwest Ranches) 1.4331 3 Plantation  1.3964 4 John Carroll (Fort Pierce) 1.1981 5 Jensen Beach 1.1824 6 Hialeah 1.1243 7 Dillard (Fort Lauderdale) 1.0880 8 CLASS 5A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Mainland (Daytona Beach)  1.3932 1 Lincoln (Tallahassee) 1.3919 2 Niceville 1.3778 3 Ponte Vedra 1.3688 4 Milton 1.3573 5 Beachside (St Johns)  1.3380 6 Mosley (Lynn Haven)  1.2503 7 Middleburg  1.1716 8 CLASS 5A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Sebring 1.5159 1 Lakeland 1.4139 2 Tampa Bay Tech 1.3167 3 Lake Gibson (Lakeland) 1.3138 4 Gaither (Tampa)  1.2999 5 Edgewater (Orlando)  1.2781 6 Wesley Chapel 1.2493 7 Winter Springs 1.1142 8 CLASS 5A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Manatee (Bradenton) 1.4441 1 Pinellas Park (Largo) 1.3001 2 North Fort Myers 1.2444 3 Gulf Coast (Naples)  1.1910 4 Riverdale (Fort Myers) 1.1814 5 Charlotte (Punta Gorda)  1.1199 6 Immokalee 1.0927 7 Cape Coral 1.0752 8 CLASS 5A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank Heritage (Palm Bay) 1.3972 1 St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale) 1.3709 2 Atlantic (Delray Beach) 1.3569 3 Martin County (Stuart) 1.2473 4 Coconut Creek 1.2433 5 McArthur (Hollywood) 1.2218 6 Mater Academy (Hialeah Gardens) 1.1710 7 North Miami 1.1564 8 CLASS 6A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Buchholz (Gainesville) 1.4797 1 Nease (Ponte Vedra Beach) 1.4796 2 Mandarin (Jacksonville)  1.4693 3 Oakleaf (Orange Park) 1.4339 4 Crestview 1.4125 5 Pace 1.3604 6 Evans (Orlando) 1.3095 7 Oviedo 1.2011 8 CLASS 6A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Osceola (Kissimmee) 1.4298 1 Durant (Plant City)  1.3972 2 Plant (Tampa) 1.3593 3 Armwood (Seffner) 1.3336 4 Riverview (Riverview) 1.3232 5 Viera (Melbourne) 1.2724 6 South Lake (Groveland) 1.2379 7 Melbourne  1.1407 8 CLASS 6A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Wiregrass Ranch (Wesley Chapel) 1.3624 1 West Boca Raton 1.3261 2 Largo 1.3199 3 Palmetto 1.2923 4 East Lake (Tarpon Springs) 1.2607 5 Mitchell (New Port Richey) 1.2240 6 Lennard (Ruskin) 1.2122 7 Parrish Community 1.2110 8 CLASS 6A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank Monarch (Coconut Creek) 1.3553 1 Miami Southridge  1.3055 2 West Broward (Pembroke Pines) 1.2752 3 Doral Academy (Miami) 1.2523 4 Piper (Sunrise) 1.2047 5 Flanagan (Pembroke Pines)  1.2024 6 South Plantation (Plantation) 1.1594 7 Nova (Davie)  1.1580 8 CLASS 7A REGION 1 Schedule Region Rank Lake Mary 1.5430 1 Creekside (St. Johns) 1.5061 2 Seminole (Sanford) 1.4543 3 Winter Park 1.3996 4 DeLand 1.3844 5 Spruce Creek (Port Orange) 1.3721 6 Hagerty (Oviedo) 1.3328 7 Boone (Orlando)  1.3051 8 CLASS 7A REGION 2 Schedule Region Rank Venice 1.5553 1 Sumner (Riverview) 1.4059 2 Ocoee 1.3592 3 Plant City 1.3291 4 Riverview (Sarasota) 1.3185 5 West Orange (Winter Garden) 1.2617 6 Ridge Community (Davenport) 1.2511 7 Winter Haven  1.2127 8 CLASS 7A REGION 3 Schedule Region Rank Vero Beach 1.3779 1 Palm Beach Central (Wellington) 1.3412 2 Dr. Phillips (Orlando) 1.2571 3 Lake Nona (Orlando) 1.2565 4 Fort Pierce Central 1.1942 5 East Ridge (Clermont) 1.1813 6 Jupiter  1.1758 7 St. Cloud 1.1755 8 CLASS 7A REGION 4 Schedule Region Rank Christopher Columbus (Miami) 1.4724 1 Western (Davie) 1.4250 2 Miami Palmetto 1.3256 3 South Dade (Homestead) 1.3118 4 Spanish River (Boca Raton)  1.2649 5 Goleman (Miami) 1.2534 6 Coral Gables 1.1103 7 Santaluces (Lantana) 1.0642 8 RURAL Schedule Region Rank Madison County (Madison) 1.4730 1 Pahokee 1.3126 2 Hawthorne 1.2642 3 Chiefland 1.1412 4 Fort Meade  1.1344 5 Lafayette (Mayo) 1.1091 6 Taylor County (Perry)  1.0983 7 Blountstown 1.0799 8 Trenton 1.0764 9 Williston 1.0605 10 Branford  1.0151 11 Chipley 0.9876 12 Liberty County (Bristol) 0.9778 13 Jay 0.9723 14 Sneads 0.9657 15 Baker 0.9167 16