anonimis

@nolebull813 Should Dillard be relegated to the SSAA or should they play JV only?

I support the SSAA for getting more teams playing more games against teams of similar ability. I hope the exodus from the FHSAA encourages some thought to the school and student-athlete experience.

My guess on the update timing would be to wait for those Monday games to finish and any other issues that might take some time to clean up like getting the scores correct.

These championships are like an Ab absurdum argument for getting rid of the FHSAA class state championships.

What do you think is causing the lines in the scatter plot? It looks like there are 10 lines.

I took the rankings and enrollments from the FHSAA website and merged the two based on school. I dropped any schools that I couldn't easily merge, ex: schools with duplicate names like Atlantic or spelling variation like Senior vs Sr. With the remaining schools there is essentially no correlation between team rating and school population.

I would conclude that there isn't a significant difference between classes, school population, or rural/suburban /metro split. Splitting teams by the current classes isn't making the class more competitive, since there is more variance within classes than between classes.

In the box plots, the line inside the boxes are the medians. The red dotted line is the overall mean. There are a handful of schools at the bottom as well. The overall skewness of 'rating': 0.04703871518510849. My biggest question right now is why the scatterplot has rows? CLASS SIZE DIVISION

I scraped the data from the FHSAA site. Results are below. Size refers to the population. Class Mean Rating SD 0 1M 2.549517 9.117624 1 1R 0.002303 8.189586 2 1S -0.121667 6.661996 3 2M -0.103683 8.155865 4 2S 0.831387 8.520173 5 3M 1.365750 8.045310 6 3S 1.160899 7.985614 7 4M 0.473030 8.157010 8 4S 2.798478 7.440289

That's why I think the first round losers of the open bracket should get a bye into their respective brackets. Also, the open championship should be at least double elimination with a consolation for 3rd/4th (I'm open to placing to 16, but I don't know if anyone else is).

http://calpreps.com/ratings.htm I remember calpreps being used by MaxPreps, but I could be wrong. Casella and Berger's Statistical Inference is about as far as my math/stats knowledge goes. As a coach, I wouldn't want to have to coach in a system where you are forced to win run up scores because winning by 42 instead of 63 may hurt your rating. Did the FHSAA ever say there was a cap on margin of victory?

Item 4 is the only thing that makes sense. Margin of victory must be factored in if there isn't a matchmaking system. The other items just further water down the title of state champion and decreases the competitiveness of games.

From the 2022 regular season gametype District Non-District games 751 2006 Games with 70+ point differences gametype District Non-District score difference 7 6 Games with 60+ point differences gametype District Non-District score difference 28 24 District games made up about 27.2% of games this season. They were 53.8% of 70+ point games and 53.8% of 60+ point games. I agree, Coaches and ADs do a much better job of scheduling games than the FHSAA. The matchups like the ones forced by Orange County and Seminole County or the FHSAA are causing the majority of issues.

It's been a fun game to watch. There's about 10 minutes to go. Tie game with Oklahoma driving.

Is there a state final caliber team that doesn't have a significant number of transfers on the team? Maybe Apopka or Venice? Kids transfer schools all of the time. Plenty of mediocre-bad players on mediocre-bad teams transfer every year.

I made this a year ago if it is any help to you. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/paul.kelly7601/viz/FloridaHSFootballRatingsandGeolocations2/Dashboard1

Stop scheduling games with 70+ point spreads. Florida needs better matchmaking.

There's compromise, they travel a little, other's travel to them. They have a few more less competitive matchups than everyone else. Video games go through the same problem with ping instead of travel time. You start with strict requirements for a matchup and loosen them as needed to get a match. Was there a specific team you had in mind?

I don't expect any major changes unless there is widespread unhappiness with the bottom 50% of schools. There is a trend of district games getting more and more noncompetitive. The sub-tournaments could be the current classes.

Remove classes. District games are matchups between nearby teams of similar ability. There is one official state tournament with the top 32 ranked teams. Host smaller tournaments for teams not in the state tournament. This creates more competitive matchups all season long, forces teams to work improve, eases travel budgets, etc.

As long as there are 9 teams claiming a state championship and there are 90 point blowouts in district games, the system is silly. Shuffling the semi-final matchups made the finals closer, which is okay. Overall, I can't support this system because it only stinks slightly less. Now that the season is over, we have to watch STA and Central fight over a MNC, when they never played each other and are 20 miles apart...and Lakeland can beat them both.

I think the rain will help Apopka, but if there is a long lightning delay it will help Columbus. I don't see Apopka shutting down Columbus' offense. They should be much better than most of the teams Apopka has played. Apopka has won a lot of close games though with 7 games decided by a score or less vs Columbus' 2 games. My model has Columbus at a 57% chance to win.

STA wins in a blowout. Only way it is close is if it rains. STA has an 80% chance of winning and it is the biggest mismatch in the finals.

Keep an eye out for randoms on facebook streaming the game from the stands lol.

I think Cocoa wins easy, but my model has FSUHS with a 54% chance to win. I think it is off because of the lack of "cross-pollination" in scheduling meaning they beat up on a different and lower quality pool of teams, but the math can't work it out.