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Everything posted by gatorman-uf
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I have suggested numerous times over the years that we should have a promotion/relegation system (my opinions on how it should be done, have changed, but always a recognition that classifications based solely on size seem antiquated). Additionally, the Florida Legislature's neutering of the FHSAA and now Open Enrollment have created more of what many of us expected and the FHSAA is limited in what it can do. Private vs Public classifications (No go with state legislature) Metro vs Suburban (Doesn't solve the problem of transfers/recruits and throws a lot of schools under the bus) Sitting out a year for transferring (no go with state legislature) Multiplier based on transfers (It might solve the issue for small schools, but does STA really care if they play in 7A or 8A?). My solution use the MaxPreps end of year rankings for the previous 4 years, average them, and move a team up or down based on their ranking within their classification. Good teams will rise up, bad teams will move down, teams will be able to find some competitive balance within their classification. The benefit of this is that it works in all sports. A school dominates in baseball? Move them up! That same school's soccer team scored 1 goal all season, move them down! So yes in theory, your school could be 8A in volleyball and 4A in football, who cares, we want competitive balance that the current classification system doesn't offer. People might suggest that the FHSAA offered this up a couple of years ago, I think they did it wrong. They based it on that season's results and it affected the playoffs. So if you were really good that one season, have a chance at the state championship, the FHSAA wanted to yank you from your classification and put you in a separate class. Long term that might work, but the state wasn't ready for that. So I did the research, here are the teams that would move up/down in each class. Would we have teams that would still be automatic favorites to win the state championship? Sure, but it takes time, coaches/ADs are not going to take a radical switch of where their team is.
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Joining Coach Coe leaving the Florida HS coaching ranks. Maybe Columbia can finally make it pass Riverside in the playoffs.
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I have no problem eliminating 2 classes. I suggest a 4 year rolling average (for all sports), because you get that special team sometimes that just dominates for 1 year, but then the coach moves on and the Senior class graduates and the team is mediocre again. If it is a 4 year average, teams don't have to fear having one great year moves you up, but rather constant success. I do think that promotion/relegation should happen every year, just the determination is based on the previous 4 years of data.
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The answer is the same I have said for over 10 years. A promotion and relegation system is the answer to every problem. If a team recruits and dominates a classification, move them up a classification. If a team has trouble fielding a team, move them down. Do it based on a 4 year rolling average of success (MaxPreps Rating), so a team doesn't go from 2A to 8A overnight, only one classification bump per year. Even 1A should have its most dominate team switch with the lowest ranked rural school(regardless of size) Tell me why this isn't a simpler and easier way to do this. It eliminates concerns about open enrollment/recruiting, because they face other tough teams. If you want to do it even better, 8A should be 64 teams at max, the rest of the classes of the classes 96.
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I have been promoting the idea on this and the Old FlaVarsity board for years that promotion/relegation is the best solution for solving competitive imbalance in ALL sports. I would start with school size. After 2 years. I move the top/bottom 10-15 schools in a classification over a 4 year period. And then do it every year after that. Let good teams move up and bad teams move down. Kids get to play equal level programs.
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Thank you. My bad.
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Saw this across my Twitter feed and it felt it was like a Sexy Beast in training. I cant believe it was nearly 10 years ago that he was playing QB for Apopka.
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Such a SexyBeast of an offense that Coach Darlington runs
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Does this mean the return of the most exciting offense in high school, The Single Wing?
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RPI: Did the FHSAA get it right 2021 edition
gatorman-uf replied to Nulli Secundus's topic in The Huddle
If I was forced to do it for the 2022, I would start with our current classifications. Change has to be slow. 1) I would then either contact Laz and ask him if the FHSAA could use his Power Rankings for the previous 4 years. or 2) I would use the RPI from 2019 and 2021 and average them together. (Not the best solution due to 2020 not using RPI) In either case, I am taking the top 10 teams from 2A and moving them up to 3A, top 10 from 3A to 4A, etc. I am also taking the worse 10 teams and moving them down. For 1A, I am taking the top 2 teams and moving them into 3A, the worse 2 "Rural" schools that in 1A would move down as well. -
RPI: Did the FHSAA get it right 2021 edition
gatorman-uf replied to Nulli Secundus's topic in The Huddle
I find it funny that all the people on here bash the RPI (or any scoring system), when 4-5 years ago, everybody raved about how great this would be football. No more blowouts, only good teams getting into the playoffs, better state championships. Every game would count rather than only some of the games in determining who made the playoffs. We would get better in-season games. I prefered the district/runner-up system because of the simplicity. My main concern as I have suggested for long periods of time is that school population is too limited in determining classifications. Classifications should be based on previous levels of success (or lack there of). The complaints of unequal competitiveness in districts become lessened when every team has been on the same level. Move good teams up a classifications and bad teams down a classification. Re-classify every 2 years based on a 4 year rolling average for football (every other team sport should re-classify every year). Districts become more competitive, which allows less complaining. -
Deland - Steve Allen - Out Orlando University - Zach Barrett - Out https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/highschool/football/os-sp-hs-deland-steve-allen-university-zach-barrett-20211112-zj5eyosvafhlnhkotkerslqd3y-story.html
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1A should be played in Tallahassee/Gainesville/Lake City as any one of those 3 makes the game centrally located. Glad that it will be in Tallahassee. 2A should be played at a home stadium of one of the teams as they rarely ever get above 1,500.
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I have problems with the RPI (different than yours), but the formula is pretty much the FHSAA basic formula. College Basketball RPI: RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25) FHSAA RPI: RPI = (WP * 0.35) + (OWP * 0.35) + (OOWP * 0.30) The change was mostly due to coaches wanting winning to matter more. ---------------- As more games have played, we have seen a correction. FHSAA's main problem was they released the RPI waaaaaay too early! RPI should be released until like week 8 or 9 at the earliest. They wanted every game to count. My argument to people like @ColumbiaHighFan2017class back then was nothing was stopping teams from playing a challenging schedule, because there was no punishment if you lost the game as long as you won your district. Now, every game counts. Have the good teams substantially upgraded their schedules to find good local and state-wide games or do most teams play the same teams they always play? I think you do see a small improvement in schedules (some counties even allow of county travel), but most teams are still playing within a short distance. @ColumbiaHighFan2017class loves to bring up the 1-9 Eastside team, but he forgets that an 0-10 Gadsden County made the playoffs over Andrew Jackson in one of the first years of the point system (not the current RPI system). Systems have one offs, get used to it. Should it happen, no, but it does. If it was a constant trend, we should worry. If the FHSAA didn't learn a lesson from it, we should worry.
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When you do opponent's winning percentage, you have to remove the teams (in this case Bishop Moore's) result from the record. Pine Ridge lost to Bishop Moore... You would remove their loss so they would be 2-2 (or .500). Edgewater won vs Bishop Moore... You would remove their win so they would be 5-1 (or .833).
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Before I write another e-mail to the FHSAA and get a nearly zero useful response, can someone check my work? FHSAA: Bishop Moore OWP = .728 Mine: Bishop Moore OWP = .75278 Bishop Moore's Opponents L - Edgewater (6-1) = .833 L - Gainesville (4-2) = .600 L - Treasure Coast (4-1) = .750 L - Braden River (5-0) = 1.000 W - South Sumter (5-2) = .833 W - Pine Ridge (2-3) = .500
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I didn't think Florida HS football games could end in ties, (Spanish River vs Olympic Heights 6-6). Does anybody know how the FHSAA handles ties for RPI?
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So you talk trash without knowing anything about the young man, run your mouth before you have any knowledge... damn don't they teach anything out in Madison. Just curious, he won a state championship last year. They beat Hawthorne to win. Just to remind everyone. How did the mighty Cowboys of Madison do when they faced Hawthorne?
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In defense of Notre Dame, they play a harder schedule than most: Link From 1998 to 2017, Sagarin Ratings, Notre Dame had average Strength of Schedule as 9th in the country. Does Notre Dame get special privileges, because they are Notre Dame, sure. They are what would happen if Bama or Texas went independent.
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Could you provide a list of the transfers that the school in Jacksonville has on their 2021 roster that came from other schools during the 2020 season. Or direct me to a previous post where you listed them? Could you do the same for Columbia? I ask because as the person making the accusation that Lee/Riverside is getting transfers from Ed White/First Coast/Trinity, you have to back up the information. If you are correct, great. But unless you can prove it with actual names and former schools, just sounds like accusations right now.
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And I understand that, but look big picture for Bartow: Since 2004, MaxPreps has them with a 85-93 record, would that be so bad that we should drop them a classification. I wouldn't think so. Yes Bartow had some lean years and some good years. If we only looked at the 4 year period that ends with the 0-10 season. They would be 12-29 (.292 win percentage). And yes, that is probably bad enough to be in the bottom 10 of 6A programs in that time period. And I do agree with you, good coaches can turn programs, but that is a lot harder to replicate and takes a little bit of luck to make that happen. Even good coaches can walk into a bad situation and be unable to turn it around. Where I see promotion/relegation working is not for a school like Bartow (who over the long period has been average), but a school like Interlachen. They have consistently been 3A/4A level school. Since 2004, MaxPreps has them at 35-124 (.220), with one 6-5 season in 2010 (not sure how as they didn't make the playoffs unless it was a Bowl Game). They are the definition of a team without a winning tradition in the modern era. So let's give them a chance to create some winning, maybe 4A is too big, maybe 3A is the place for them, maybe 2A. In every classification in every region there are a couple of teams who are just in the wrong classification, they could be competitive if they went from 8A to 6A (by competitive I mean 5-5), but instead we continue to say, you have too many students, you must be 8A. We put brand new schools (usually after 2 years) into a classification of whatever their size they are, without regard for the fact that they don't have the fan base, community, to be successful out of the gate. Take a look at the state championships, of the public schools, while I don't have the proof in front of me, I would say that it take a minimum of 15 years for a public school to be good enough to make it the state championship. Maybe Dwyer made it there a little sooner, maybe Bartram Trail. I know that population size is the fastest. I know the correct way to turn around a program is through coaching and community support. I just don't think population size acknowledges actual differences in school support for the programs. I don't think great coaching is available everywhere.
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Schools go through cyclical change. They get in good talent, good coaches. They get principals who care about sports and ones who can't stand it. Our current system of only using population doesn't recognize that. It states you have a population, you must be equal with every other school who is similar in size to you. This does not recognize any long term trends in the programs or changes, it says the only real resource that schools have is the number of students. It doesn't look at on-field success, coaching turnover, community support. Simple example from the North Central Florida area. Gainesville area high schools (Santa Fe, Gainesville, Buchholz, PK Yonge, and recently Newberry) have been for the last 20 years, very good at volleyball. They have a tremendous junior club program that basically all these girls play in (similar programs exist in Orlando/Tampa). Unfortunately for Columbia High School, they are often the same size as GHS or Buchholz and as a result, Columbia struggles against them 9when districts were required). This isn't be throwing shade at Columbia, but rather acknowledging that they should never be placed in a district/classification with teams who have had consistent success (despite being relatively the same size).
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You have. I proposed since back in my FlaVarsity Days, ran the spread sheets, showed what classes would like. I get it. Population size is easier and in theory fairest, but the problem is we know that it doesn't produce a great system. It produces lopsided results that nobody (winner or loser) is interested. For programs like football, I am generally in favor of the promotion/relegation power points being over a rolling 4-5 year period rather than one year (the original article makes it sound like 1 year, which would do exactly what you say). Other sports, I could make the argument that roster/coach turnover is much greater and thus teams improve much quicker than in football. But if the Unicorns, go 5-5, 5-5, 8-4 (2nd round), (14-1) they might move up, but if they went from 8-4, 8-4, 12-2, and 14-1. They might be more likely to move up and that is ok. I am positive that team would still be competitive in the higher class, would they be dominating, maybe not and again that is ok. My idea of a promotion/relegation system is only a handful of teams would change in a given year (10% up, 10% down in each classification so about 8-9 schools in each direction.) It would take a long time for a 3A school to get to 8A, and even if the Unicorns move up the next, there will still be bad schools in their new classification as there will be schools who were bad, just not bad enough to move down.
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Ray, I could give you a long summation of why your argument about private schools transfers doesn't hold up from personal experience, but let me state, the state of Florida will not allow it. Additionally, when you start looking at "large school" privates, there aren't enough to create a real classification. Below are the largest private schools (sorry if I missed some). Honestly that feels kind of small for a classification, after that you start getting into private schools that couldn't compete with the JVs of these schools. Again, I don't have a problem with the separation, but you aren't going to get it pass the state legislature. 8A: Columbus (3518) (doubled due to all boys) 7A: St. Thomas Aquinas (1994) 6A: Belen Jesuit 6A: Jesuit (Tampa) 5A: Bishop Moore 5A: American Heritage (Plantation) 5A: St. Brendan 4A: Bolles (787) 4A: American Heritage (Delray Beach) (1026) 4A: Calvary Christian (782) 4A: Cardinal Gibbons (1102) 4A: Gulliver Prep (944) 4A: Immaculata-La Salle (872) 4A: Monsignor Pace (833) 4A: North Broward Prep (892) 4A: Pine Crest (857)
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That is fine, but doesn't solve the problem. We have uncompetitive districts and classifications (and not just in football). We have schools in several teams sports that run roughshod over any district foes and won't have a competitive game until the regional finals. At the same time, we have teams for various reasons that are so bad that they need to be in a district/classification that allows them to be competitive or they will eventually dump the team. Look I am all for competition and I don't think teams should run from competition. But we all know there are teams in our areas that if they get their kids lined up correctly that it should be considered a win. If they can put together a JV and Varsity squad, we should consider it a successful season. Letting them get brutalized by an obviously superior team because it is a district game, seems silly. As for separate classes for private and public school, not going to happen. The state legislature has already said so. Again, the FHSAA might "run" high school athletics, but ultimately the state legislature has the big stick on this issue. Florida also doesn't have numerous large schools, so basically you would have a class of 10 large teams and a class of 60 small schools. We have to stop thinking that the state legislature is going to allow us to treat private school differently than public schools. They aren't. (I want to say something political here, but will pass). As for Madison County vs STA, I give Madison zero chance in 10 games. But that is the beauty of a relegation/promotion system. Maybe Madison can't cut in that top 48, maybe the teams are too big, too much depth. So Madison drops a classification and a team with better depth and skill moves up. The beauty is the system self-regulates, if a team doesn't recruit and has a couple of down years, they move down a classification until the right coach and right team comes along and they can move back up a level.