Perspective

I agree that playing a really good team early on is a great way to test your team, force preparation and, most of all, identify areas of weakness (possibly to make personnel changes) while you still have time to do that. But I'm a little bit confused as to your comment that "almost [y]our entire team is going to be new." Earlier in this thread, you indicated that Venice was losing 13 of its 22 starters. If my math is right (and it may not be, since I didn't use a calculator), that means that Venice will be returning 9 of its 22 starters. Stated another way, approximately 40% of the starters will be coming back. That's not a bad starting point.

I'll go out on a limb and say that losing 13 of 22 starters (not counting kickers/guys on special teams) is probably about par for the course for the vast majority of high school football teams. The way high school age boys develop, seniors tend to be bigger, stronger and faster. As such, seniors tend to dominate starting lineups. I'm sure there are exceptions, but I'd be willing to bet that, on average, seniors make up 60% of the starting lineups for most high school football teams.

It's very difficult to say now how a particular team is going to look in the fall, as no one knows exactly who will be playing on that particular team. If the past couple of years have taught us anything, it's that kids will transfer. And if the past is any indication, they will be transferring to the schools that established themselves as top-tier programs. Lakeland and Venice both fit that description. They are "have" schools and the kids have a tendency to move from the "have not" schools to the "have" schools . . . sometimes with a little outside encouragement, sometimes not. Based on the past, I'd be willing to bet that there will be a few kids at both schools that will be starting in the fall, yet not even enrolled at the school as of this date.

That may depend on what the state legislature lets the FHSAA do . . . which may depend on whether Lakeland is one of those 2 or 3 teams that wins state every year.

Good point. So, if the process continues to play out, some of the kids that in the past received scholarships may now have to walk-on and hope that when a teammate hits the portal that will free up a scholarship for them. Not an ideal arrangement for kids that can't afford that first year of college in hopes of earning the free ride. That said, if the process indeed plays out this way, one good thing will result: there will be more of those videos of walk-ons getting surprised with a scholarship. Some people may think they're a little sappy, but I don't ever get tired of watching 'walk-ons getting a scholarship' and 'military folks coming home and surprising their family' videos.

So it's just like musical chairs. Taking the Covid-plus years out of the equation, there are just as many chairs as there used to be for just as many kids as there have always been. The only difference is that D1 coaches, knowing the value of a scholarship and how much it can hurt a program when a few recruits don't pan out, are more inclined to take a chance on a portal kid who already has a year or two of development under his belt. That, in turn, should create more opportunities at the schools where kids are leaving from. It's just going to end up looking like a big funnel, with the top D1 schools at the narrow end, scooping up the top portal players. I don't really like the portal, but it's probably here to stay. But I think a lot of the problem has to do with the backlog created by giving kids an extra season or two because of Covid. Because of that, fewer kids have moved through the system on a regular schedule, which created fewer open spots. The high school kids in the last couple of graduating classes have suffered because of this decision. In theory, that problem should resolve itself in the next year or two. Then, the game of musical chairs will continue with an equal number of kids leaving college football and coming into college football every year. The kids in the portal will just give the top teams more options, but if those kids are leaving smaller/lesser programs for the chance to play with a top team, that should create more openings at the big end of the funnel. Just my two cents.

Ray, I can easily see where the transfer portal would affect the timing of scholarship offers to high school kids, but I'm trying to figure out how it would affect availability. Once the Covid super seniors have finally departed, there should be just as many open spots available each year that need to be filled by incoming high school players. What am I missing?

Thank you, Forrest.

Dillard Head Coach (talking to his administration, assistant coaches, players, fans and that one guy who posts on high school football message boards who fancies himself as a dream-game match-maker): "Hey, we're going to have a really good team this year. We'll play anybody anytime. At home or on the road. Bring 'em on!!" Venice Head Coach (talking to his administration, assistant coaches, players, fans and that one other guy who posts on high school football message boards who fancies himself as a dream-game match-maker): "Hey, we're going to have a really good team this year. We'll play anybody anytime. At home or on the road. Bring 'em on!!" Dillard Head Coach (talking to his best friend . . . the one who can keep a secret): "I don't want to play Venice in our season opener . . . they might kick our butts, destroy our confidence and ruin our whole season. But, don't tell anyone I said that." Venice Head Coach (talking to his best friend . . . the one who can keep a secret): "I don't want to play Dillard in our season opener . . . they might kick our butts, destroy our confidence and ruin our whole season. But, don't tell anyone I said that."

Wait, so high school was 8 years ago, but you're at a JUCO now? Time off in between or just pacing yourself?

Wait, you mean to tell me that Madison's not in a Metro area?

Point well taken. How's this edited version? "And, yes, the 'Naughty' folks from Polk were right there fluffing up the pillows."

Yeah, I don't mind folks ragging on the FHSAA when it's warranted. And it often is. But in the case of school choice/free transfer, I feel compelled to remind people that the state legislature made the bed that the FHSAA now lies in. And, yes, the folks from Polk were right there fluffing up the pillows.

You do understand that the state legislature essentially told the FHSAA that they could not do this, don't you?

Ray, as I have stated before, I think the decision to allow kids to roam freely from school-to-school was first made by the state legislature and basically forced down the FHSAA's throat. The FHSAA must now figure out how to maintain/create competitive balance given the hand they have been dealt.

A couple of thoughts on the subject: 1. Always, always, always follow the money. For football classification purposes, you have to consider gate money and travel money. Also, some counties (Hillsborough, for example) are both very territorial and very egalitarian. They want to control all the county money and be able to distribute it equally to all the public schools in the county. For that reason, the county AD's office controls the scheduling of games and, with rare exception, unless a team's opponent is a district opponent, they don't let the schools in Hillsborough County cross county lines to play non-district games. 2. The FHSAA Board of Directors is composed of a bunch of people with very diverse backgrounds. There are folks from rural schools and folks from metro schools; folks from public schools and folks from private schools; folks from 'rich' schools and folks from 'poor' schools. Dr. Seuss would have a field day writing a book about the people who comprise the board. In many respects, it's a good thing, as all the different voices get heard. But, when it comes time to making philosophical decisions about how to structure things like football, it's very difficult to get a consensus. And, thus, we're stuck with trying to turn a battleship. It's a slow process. The board rep from the private school in South Florida whose school is good at golf and tennis has a vastly different philosophical approach to sports than does the board member from a rural public school in the panhandle. 3. By the time the FHSAA board members finally start to understand the big picture, their term is up and they get replaced by somebody new and the whole process starts over again. Which, to a certain extent, benefits the administrative personnel in Gainesville who are not elected by anyone. Unfortunately, bureaucrats are notorious for plodding along and keeping things they way they've always been. But when they do make changes, it's often-times done at the urging of a vocal minority and folks who have an agenda. I'm not sure how to change this mentality. Just my two cents.

Jesse, are you talking about indoor or outdoor track season? For some reason, I was thinking outdoor track was a spring sport for both college and junior college. Either way, best of luck to you.

Just curious, how does a team even know how many "non-district weeks" they will have until they know how many team will be in their district?

Yeah, but that was probably before Jesse was even born.

I know Brady somewhat, kind of stuck up for AB after the game (basically saying that everyone needed to treat the situation with compassion and empathy). That said, I wonder how many of the Bucs players would welcome AB back (again) with open arms? I've read that AB was worried about his ankle, that Ariens was trying to get AB back onto the field, etc. But at the end of the day, it looked to this old-school guy that AB quit on his team. That would not be acceptable to me as a teammate, a coach, a GM or an owner. Mistakes (on or off the field) are one thing; quitting on your team in the middle of a game is another.

As I told my friends yesterday, I think that Brady kid may turn out to be a pretty darn good QB. Personally, I thought the call by the Jets to go for it on 4th down was gutsy, but not the right decision (and, yes, I said that at the time, not after the fact). The TV guys were praising the call, saying that would send a signal to the team that the coach believes in them. Yeah, I guess so, if it would have worked. But it didn't. That said, I thought the actual play call was terrible. Not too many QB's are going to be able to pick up two yards on a QB sneak against what was essentially a goal-line defense. A half a yard, probably; a full yard, maybe. Two yards? Probably not. Similarly, I questioned why the Bucs went for 2 after they scored the TD with 10-15 seconds left. Sure, a successful conversion put them up by 4 (so that an unlikely FG couldn't tie the game), but had the try failed, that same unlikely FG could have won the game for the Jets. Throw in the whole AB situation/drama and it was definitely an entertaining game.

video? anyone?

How did the officials blow the call? Oh, and my autograph is on its way. (Channeling my inner Jambun this time).

OK, so MadCo goes on the road and upsets Venice in the opening round of the mythical Florida tournament of champions, but STA holds off a pesky TCA team to win their opening round game. (By the way, on the other side of the brackets, Jesuit knocks off Chaminade Madonna to stay unbeaten and Miami Central explodes in the second half to come back and beat Cardinal Gibbons). So, MadCo takes their second long road trip in as many weeks and faces St. Thomas Aquinas. Who wins that match-up?

So, all kidding aside Jesse, if you were king for the day, tell me how you would come up with a national playoff system? Would every state get to participate? If so, that's 50 teams, not including U.S. territories. That would be at least 5 rounds of games to get to a final game. If not, how do you decide who gets in and who doesn't? Also, how should each state determine its ultimate state champ? Florida has 8 classifications, which actually makes it easy. Should the Florida Ultimate Championship be seeded like the classifications? Would the 8A champ play the 1A champ, 7 vs. 2, 6 vs. 3 and 5 vs. 4? How would MadCo fare against Venice this year? Wait, what do we do about the IMG's of the world? Do they get to play? Maybe 16 wildcard teams to create a nice even number like 64? With 64 teams, it would take an extra 6 weeks to determine the champion once all the state winners have been determined . . . are you ready to play games through the end of January and into February? OK, getting back on track, if you had a champions tournament in Florida, that would take at least three more weeks to determine the winner. Presumably, every state would be similar. How would you then seed all the state winners? If you're a top 25 seed, do you get to host the first game? Can you imagine a team from Mississippi having to travel to Colorado or Wyoming to play a game in a foot of snow? Oh, by the way, who pays for all of this travel (planes, hotels, food, etc.)? Again, a true national championship game would be really cool, but the devil is in the details. Start by answering all these questions and then I'll start asking the tough ones.