SPCjessica2004

Now, I'm also a realist. The conversation regarding the Lions program going forward will be how Daemon Jones and his staff build the team going forward. I'm not looking at the Maxpreps roster or what's on CM's website. Against CCC they dressed 44 players, 23 of which were seniors.  They return 21 players, and they essentially graduate their entire defense with the exception of Willie Moise and Dedrick Stanley. 

 I always felt 2019 was going to be the year that CM missed Marlin Mayo who transferred to Coconut Creek last season.   Chaminade will need a significant amount of transfers to replace guys like Te'Cory Couch, Keontra Smith, Jimmy Nixon, Ahmund Jordan, John Dunmore, Cameron Williams, Grantis Poole, James Williams, Lynden Washington, Thomas Armstrong. These are all power 5 D-1 guys that have played together for years. 

The issue is going to be the schedule. Chaminade could compete with AH-Plantation, Muscle Shoals, Uschool, Booker T.  due to their athletes. Teams like Northeast, Ely, Doral Academy, Piper will not play Chaminade anymore. The question is, who will?  I have a lot of respect for Chaminade, but even with transfers, there's going to be a PITA to put a 10 game schedule together next year.

Now, I'm also a realist. The conversation regarding the Lions program going forward will be how Daemon Jones and his staff build the team going forward. I'm not looking at the Maxpreps roster or what's on CM's website. Against CCC they dressed 44 players, 23 of which were seniors.  They return 21 players, and they essentially graduate their entire defense with the exception of Willie Moise and Dedrick Stanley. 

 I always felt 2019 was going to be the year that CM missed Marlin Mayo who transferred to Coconut Creek last season.   Chaminade will need a significant amount of transfers to replace guys like Te'Cory Couch, Keontra Smith, Jimmy Nixon, Ahmund Jordan, John Dunmore, Cameron Williams, Grantis Poole, James Williams, Lynden Washington, Thomas Armstrong. These are all power 5 D-1 guys that have played together for years. 

The issue is going to be the schedule. Chaminade could compete with AH-Plantation, Muscle Shoals, Uschool, Booker T.  due to their athletes. Teams like Northeast, Ely, Doral Academy, Piper will not play Chaminade anymore. The question is, who will?  I have a lot of respect for Chaminade, but even with transfers, there's going to be a PITA to put a 10 game schedule together next year.

Or the fact that they aren't near elite overall . They are a very good football team but that's about it. They'd get run over in some classes.
Let's look at what's left?
4A- Cocoa and Raines. Probably be competitive games. Don't know who would win but they'd be good games.
 
5A- N. Marion and Gibbons. I don't think CM would score on Gibbons. N. Marion and CM would be a good game but with NM beating TCA I'd probably give an edge to them.
6A- Armwood and MNW. Both too physical and fast for CM. Each would be at least 2 TD favorites.
7A- Lakeland and STA. Blowouts by both teams.
8A- Mandarin and Columbus. Don't know anything about the Mustangs but they did run through 8A North with ease. Have to favor them by 10 or more. Columbus would also be a solid favorite after blowing out Deerfield who has a ton more depth than CM.
 
Again, not being harsh on CM. They are a top 25 type team but not ready for a lot of the other contenders.

181pl,

What's really going to blow your mind is that when CCC defeated Jesuit they started 5 freshmen on defense and 4 freshmen on offense. They also did not have their top offensive linemen (Kayson Romalle) or Jerzhan Newton. In the third quarter #9 was ejected of that game along with 2 others. To this day my husband and I have NO IDEA how they went to Jesuit and won that game.

I'm glad you enjoyed yourself :-)

 

I went to the game. A couple of thoughts. CCC is a good team with a scrappy defense, but I can't fathom how they beat Jesuit. Not that Jesiit is a super-team or anything, but CCC does not have a bunch of size, is missing an athletic component to their team, and does not have a ton of depth. However it's not a knock on them. They are what they are. A very good 3A. team. Madonna is a good squad. They have some very nice athletes and size. But they don't have much depth. I've seen a ton of big School state champions and I can't see Madonna compete with those teams. Again not a knock on them, but they are what they are which is a very nice 3A team. I'm sure they would beat their fair share of six through eight a squats around here, but they would not beat the more Elite teams in those classes. Not even close.
 
By the way I would like to add that both teams were extremely well coached. I was impressed with Madonna's coaching on the sidelines. Constant adjustments. I did not sit on the CCC side because there was not enough room.

According to the FHSAA website we will have preliminary classifications/districts by December 21st. The website below says the process has just begun.

The interesting part is that any school that fits the criteria to play in 1A (Rural) have been notified already. I'm curious how many schools that are currently in 2A and above elect to move to 1A.

https://www.fhsaa.org/news/2018/1128

And thats what i dont understand how are we only at 1800 wen we have 6 7 and 8 grade along with 9-12

The FHSAA is pretty predictable based on their 1/3 and 2/3 rule. They basically look at the complete 2018 student population report and then look at only teams that are eligible for the state series. The biggest 2/3 (66% of schools) are placed in classes 5A-8A. The remaining 1/3 (33%) are placed in 1A-4A. 5A-8A are then assigned districts, 1A-4A are on their own.  

We will not know where Dillard ends up since we do not have their reported 2018 student population is. Even if we did we do not know the individual class cutoffs. I am not sure there will be a lot of teams moving out of the state series to go independent, but I do think some smaller schools will end up in 1A. BigBendPreps reported on a podcast earlier this year that some of the more rural public schools in the smaller classifications are going to elect to move to 1A.

Dillard's Fall 2017 report shows them at 1823.  Obviously, they are in 6A which currently has a cutoff of 1,593-1,938. Unless there is a dramatic amount of teams entering or exiting the state series or wild fluctuations in student population I think it's pretty reasonable to conclude that Dillard would remain in 6A, but again it all comes down to what the school reports as their Fall 2018 enrollment.

 
 

I wonder whats the chances of dillard moving up or down 

Which is I why I like it that many of the small private schools went and formed their own independent conference, the SSAC, with its own playoff.  

This is 100% on point!  For every Chaminade-Madonna, STA, JaxTCA  there are 10 other private schools trying to figure out how to field enough players to practice let alone play a game.

I think the call to separate private and public is aimed squarely at the traditionally highly successful private schools. C I seriously doubt that public schools would care if most non successful private schools were in their district or region.
 

This is 100% on point!  For every Chaminade-Madonna, STA, JaxTCA  there are 10 other private schools trying to figure out how to field enough players to practice let alone play a game.

I think the call to separate private and public is aimed squarely at the traditionally highly successful private schools. C I seriously doubt that public schools would care if most non successful private schools were in their district or region.
 

That is exactly what i keep trying to explain to people 
 
People think all private schools are loading up d1 players and stealing opportunities from publics when in reality it's a select few and the majority of the privates don't come close to competing with the publics

It starts from the top and rolls downhill from there. A leader who lacks morals and class will accept it from his staff and players. 
Wondering how long the administration is going to put up with this circus? 

While 3A isn't a particularly deep classification in the number of teams, the top 5-6 teams regularly compete with the states best. This Friday represents the state semi-finals aka the final 4. These teams have had tremendous seasons this year and while it's cliche to say they "deserve" to be here, they are clearly rolling at the right time. One common theme I've seen on social media this past week is that any team that's practicing on Thanksgiving is a pretty good team, these are the teams practicing a week after Thanksgiving.  The following 4 teams are champions already (regional) now it's time to see who represents the north and the south for the state finals.

Class 3A Northern Championship Game
Florida High (8-3) vs West Palm Beach King's Academy (11-1)

Maxpreps Florida Ranking: Florida High #78,   King's Academy #79

Two VERY evenly matched teams will meet up in Tallahassee this upcoming Friday for the right to play for a state championship. Florida High finished the regular season at 6-3. In the playoffs they defeated Pensacola Catholic and Taylor County. The Seminoles have racked up 1336 yards passing and 1648 yards rushing this year. The Seminoles Willie Taggart jr. and Raymond Woodie have been as advertised since transferring in prior to the season but the Seminoles already had a strong class returning in the form of corner Cordell Clay and Javan Morgan.

King's Academy is the very definition of a fairy tale come to life. They knocked off arch rival Benjamin School to close the regular season on a miraculus 2 point conversion and then lightening struck again last week against Orlando First Academy on a 66 yard TD with under 20 seconds remaining to win the game.  The Lions of King's Academy are prolific on offense as Sr. QB Justin Wake has thrown for 1928 yards while team (lead by Rb Presley Arnold) has racked up 2200 yards rushing.

The Pick:  Many people in South Florida jumped on the Lions bandwagon halfway through the season and have become a trendy pick to represent the north in 3A. I can see why, this is an exciting team that's very easy to root for. Florida High, for lack of a better phrase, was the popular pick to represent the north preseason. Florida High lost some luster midseason due to losses to Wakulla, Godby and Madison County.   Those are 3 really good teams.    

Due to the fact that the computer polls all have these teams ranked right next to each other it requires us to look at other factors. One factor that jumps out is that Tallahassee is about 450 miles from West Palm Beach. That's a heck of a homefield advantage for Florida High NOT to make that trip. The other factor is strength of schedule. King's Academy has played some good competition and won some tight contests, but Florida High has played some traditional power houses and competed well. I just think that Florida High is more prepared for this game and it will show on the field.

Florida High 35, King's Academy 21

Class 3A Southern Championship Game
Chaminade-Madonna (10-2) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (12-0)

Maxpreps Florida Ranking:  Chaminade #25,  Clearwater Central Catholic #21

To say the Lions of Chaminade started the season as  vast, overwhelming favorites to repeat as state champions is an understatement. The English language does not convey how big of a favorite this team is. Last year, Chaminade-Madonna destroyed CCC 49-3 in a game that was over at half-time. The 2018 version of Chaminade has outperformed the 2017 state championship team by every concernable metric aside from running back. The Lions also closed the talent gap between them and the other south Florida powers. In 2017 the Lions were smashed by Miami Central and American Heritage Plantation. This year, they only lost by 3 to Deerfield beach and Heritage-Plantation had to hold on for dear life to survive Chaminade.

CCC is an excellent football team, but they're very young with only 7 seniors on a 34 player varsity roster. By comparison Chaminade has 27 seniors, which is almost the same size of the entire Marauder roster. Yes, they have a star studded senior class (JerJuan Newton, Rory Hicks, Brett Seither, Kennedy Roberts, Casey Levy), but that underclass is brimming with talent. The Marauders are also very wise to build an infrastructure to keep their momentum going. They just opened a 5 million dollar football only facility and school itself is receiving a 15-20 million dollar renovation.

The Pick: I'm being completely honest here and this isn't a knock on CCC. I have no idea how CCC can compete with Chaminade even as good as they are. While I wouldn't go so far as to say there isn't a CCC player that would see the field at Chaminade, there isn't one position that CCC is better than Chaminade at. Chaminade is bigger, faster, stronger, better coached and now they're angry. Chaminade received a wake-up call last week against American Heritage Delray in a 14-3 win. I seriously doubt they'll get flagged for 20 penalties this week, and I do not think they'll play with CCC. I expect a firm, decisive win against a clearly overwhelmed opponent.

Chaminade: 45, CCC 0






 

If they beat CCC by that much I'll hate to see what they do at states

I'm sensing some sarcasm on the cm CCC prediction.
 
CM is the favorite but CCC is pretty good this year and the game is at home for CCC. 
 
Go CCC! 

Here is a video of the run.
 

I told you awhile back that Jones is clueless and an absolute joke. 
Finally the football world can get a small glimpse of what I have known for a decade or so.
In addition, I was told he did not shake one coach or player's hand from the AHD program after the game.
That, in itself, is disgusting!
 

you will have 8 classes in football.  1/3rd of the teams go into 1A-4A.  2/3rds of the teams in 5A-8A.  Dumbest shit ever.

Maybe he was was misquoted and the paper left out "not."  Either way, it's embarrassing..  

In terms of final scores, these were the least competitive region finals I can ever remember.  For perspective, below I have listed two numbers after each year.  The first number represents the number of region finals decided by 21 or more points that year.  The second number represents the number of region finals decided by 10 points or less that year.
This is the first year in the modern era in which more than half of the regional finals were decided by 21 or more points.  And this is the second year in a row that 25% or less of the games were decided by 10 points or less..another first.  Although this doesn't definitively prove a trend, things are not looking good.  IMO, we should routinely see 30-40% of these games decided by each set of margins.
Last week I posted(see below) about this topic as it pertains to second round games and a similar observation in the upper classes.
2018   18/5
2017   15/8
2016   13/10
2015   15/12
2014   15/10
2013   13/15
2012   11/13
2011   15/9
2010   11/17
2009   10/9
2008   16/11
2007   14/15
2006   13/14
2005   9/16
...for some historical perspective, games that would be the equivalent of region finals today.
2002   7/8    There were 6 classes then, so 29% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 33% of games were decided by 10 points or less
2000   8/9    There were 6 classes then, so 33% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 38% of games were decided by 10 points or less
1998   7/10  There were 5 classes then, so 35% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 50% of games were decided by 10 points or less
1997   8/9    There were 5 classes then, so 40% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 45% of games were decided by 10 points or less
1995   3/8    There were 5 classes then, so 15% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 40% of games were decided by 10 points or less
1993   8/8    There were 5 classes then, so 40% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 40% of games were decided by 10 points or less
1991   7/7    There were 5 classes then, so 35% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 35% of games were decided by 10 points or less
1988   8/7    There were 5 classes then, so 40% of games were decided by 21 or more points, and 35% of games were decided by 10 points or less
 
 
 

I read Chaminade had 20 penalties, 10 in each half...on their home field.  And their coach was quoted after the game ...“We knew it was going to be an easy game.”  I don't think I would be saying that after such a performance.  
It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if Dunmore had stayed at AHD.  I get the impression that without him, Chaminade's offense would not be nearly as good as it has.

Accountability time!

My Game of the Week was King's vs Orlando First Academy. 

I had King's by 3. King's ended up winning by 1.  What a wild finish worthy of a regional championship game!  King's was down by 6 with 22 seconds left. According to the Palm Beach post King's needed 66 yards to keep their season alive. They got it and then converted the extra point to go up by 1.  I've seen bits and pieces of the game, but not the whole thing yet.  King's Academy has been a resilient passionate team and it's infectious. It's hard not to root for them.

First Academy doesn't really have anything to be ashamed of. They had a terrific season and literally came 22 seconds away from a regional championship.

Most importantly though! Let this be further proof that magic 8 balls are only as good as the question you ask it.

Jess 1, Magic 8 ball 0

I had Florida High over Taylor County by 14. Florida High won by 8.

Taylor County deserves a lot of respect for getting to the regional final this year. Florida High is a very quality football team that is playing with a lot of confidence, but Taylor County gave the Seminoles a game behind the prowess of Da’Corian Bellamy, but in the end the Seminoles special teams was just a bit to much for the Bulldogs to overcome.  Some really good highlights on BigBendPreps of this one.

I had CCC over Berkeley Prep by 21. CCC won by 28

Berkeley Prep is a quality football team, high quality. They have terrific coaches, numerous football players likely to play at the next level but it was always going to come down to Joshua Youngblood having the game of his life to have a chance to win this one and for his part- he did. CCC looked like two completely different teams in this one. In the first half, their defense was non existent, the offense was confused and there didn’t appear to be any energy. In the 2nd half, CCC exploded for 300 yards offense, 28 points and the defense racked up 5 sacks on Youngblood ultimately knocking him out of the game with about 9 minutes left in the 4th, but the game was already out of reach at that point.

I had Chaminade over American Heritage Delray by 45, they won by 11.

I think tremendous respect should be given to the Stallions defense for really frustrating the Lions offense for the better part of the night.  That was an amazing game plan by the defensive staff. The Stallions were in this one for all 48 minutes, but the Stallions simply couldn’t move the ball through the air enough to pull the upset, still the groundwork has been laid for the Stallions going into 2019. As for Chaminade, this is the wakeup call they needed. All 3 remaining teams in 3A have quarterbacks that can throw, although I don’t think any of the remaining teams have the defense of the Stallions either.

Let’s take a look at my predictions:
I had Venice beating Bloomingdale by 30+ points. Venice won by 25.
I had Lee beating Edgewater in a close one. Boy was I wrong. Edgewater won by 35.
I had Lakeland beating Plant in a close game, but they won by 19.
I said Riverview would Finally get revenge on DP. I was correct.
I had STA beating Dwyer in a close game. I was really wrong here. They won by 35 points.