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SPCjessica2004

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SPCjessica2004 last won the day on July 31 2019

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About SPCjessica2004

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  1. Due to the holiday season, this will be our last post for the year so we hope EVERYBODY has a warm and loving Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year! Here's a quick run down of the final 2 games: Florida State High School (11-1) at Lakeland Christian School (10-2) FSUHS comes into the game ranked #3 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #10 in Class 3A. LCS comes into the game ranked #12 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #19 in Class 3A. Our Thoughts: Who would have thought that the state-semifinal would be anything other than JaxTCA vs the region 2 winner? We live in interesting times! FSU-DRS just happened to have the right team at the right time and has played a few competitive games, upending Pensacola Catholic last week. LCS comes into the game on a 9 game winning streak having defeated Orlando First Academy. Prediction: We think LCS has really come together at the perfect time and they've made an amazing run to the final 4. This is a winnable game for LCS, but FSU's senior class has been knocking on the door to get to the state finals which means they're playing with an edge and a sense of urgency. LCS has built a program that has strong potential to return to this spot for years to come, FSU-DRS is likely in a win now mode. Our Pick: FSU-DRS by 7 MP: FSU-DRS by 21 Clearwater Central Catholic (10-3) at Chaminade-Madonna (10-2) Chaminade-Madonna comes into the game ranked #1 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #4 in Class 3A. CCC comes into the game ranked #2 in Class 3A with a strength of schedule #2 in Class 3A. Chaminade Madonna is a 2 time defending state champion and playing like a top 50 team in the country right now. As pointed out earlier, they have more division 1 prospects on this team than the other 3 combined. Chaminade is currently the highest ranked small school in Florida in the nation by MaxPreps. This team has the formula down pat, take early season losses for long term gains. CCC is the 2nd highest ranked small school in Florida in the nation by MaxPreps and has accumulated 102 wins in this decade which puts them in the top 10 winning-est programs this decade which is even more impressive since for most of the decade the small schools had 1 less game to play than the bigger schools. They don't boast the overall talent that Chaminade has, but they've scrapped together some improbable wins. On paper, Berkeley Prep, Bishop Verot, Uschool, Clearwater are all better teams than CCC but the Marauders won all of those games. Prediction: A south Florida coach who has played both Chaminade and CCC in years past put it perfect. CCC plays at an 8 every year, they are a very good, solid, strong program. They won't blow you away with talent or razzle-dazzle, but they win big regular games and get to the final 4 every year. They've seen the rise and success of south Florida superpowers Uschool, American Heritage, and now Chaminade, but they've also seen them fall, yet CCC stays the same. The problem is, Chaminade is playing at a 9.25 right now and CCC isn't willing to sell their soul as Chaminade and others have to get to the needed 9.5. They're just happy being an 8 and continue to be an 8 so when Chaminade finally falls and the next 3A Miami superpower rises to a 9.2-9.3, CCC will still be an 8. The Pick: Chaminade by 28 MP: Chaminade by 3
  2. Since there are 9 and not 8 and we missed 2, we'll only take 1 additional guess to keep things even! University Christian. They were next on our list of teams we think have accomplished this feat.
  3. Our guess is! Cocoa Victory Christian Madison County Chaminade CCC Uschool Booker T. JaxTCA
  4. We have become fond of Orlando area football. One of our neighbors is a huge Apopka fan that has slowly rubbed off on us. Our youngest is signing up to play football for the first time for the Jr. Lion mighty-mites in Lake Nona next season.
  5. As an update to the previous comment, my husband and I looked at the RPI results of 3A to determine how accurate it was from designating the top 6 seeds at the end of week 11 to who made the regional finals. Figured we would share our opinion. Region 1 Final FSU-DRS (2 seed) at Pensacola Catholic (1 seed) The RPI system did a great job labeling these teams 1 and 2. There's not much to say about this particular region. Region 2 Final Orlando First Academy (3 seed) at Lakeland Christian (1 seed) RPI accurately predicted the 1 seed, LCS. First Academy is a good 3 seed that defeated the 2 seed (Holy Trinity). Overall, because RPI accurately picked the 1 seed we are willing to give the RPI the benefit of the doubt and say it worked. A 3 seed is still a high seed. Region 3 Final Clearwater Central Catholic (5 seed) at Bishop Verot (2 seed) RPI accurately labeled Bishop Verot as a 2 seed, but how is a 5 seed in the regional final? Interestingly, had Oasis Charter not forfeited 3 wins for use of an ineligible player, CCC would be the #6 seed and Benjamin would not have made the playoffs. Making this more interesting is that Benjamin as the #6 seed defeated the #3 seed Cardinal Newman in round 1. CCC defeated the #4 seed in the regional quarter-final and the #1 seed in the regional semi-final. Hindsight being 20/20 it would have been a travesty if Benjamin didn't make the playoffs considering they went on to defeat a 3 seed. Ultimately, the RPI got this correct but it required unforeseen circumstances to put the correct teams in the playoffs. This region likely needs to be looked at to see exactly what happened here. Region 4 Final Chaminade-Madonna (#2 seed) at Calvary Christian Academy (1 seed) RPI nailed this one, not much to say. In conclusion, we are fans of the RPI system at least in 3A. It accurately predicted 6 out of 8 #1 or #2 seeds. Class 3A-Region 3 will likely be a case study by people looking at individual regions that the RPI messed up on. The tweak would likely need to be to the OOWP since we believe it's a good metric, but to much value is given to it compared to the first two values (WP and OWP).
  6. Not every team can be a state championship team, but 4 teams will earn the "State" tag. A state team is a team that makes the State-Semifinals. We watched a few live streams on Friday and have communicated with quite a few coaches around the state to come up with our picks. Here's a look at this weeks 4 regional final games: We are looking at MaxPreps rankings and Strength of Schedule numbers: Chaminade-Madonna(9-2) at Calvary Christian Academy(10-1) C-M is currently ranked #1 in Class 3A at a 50.3 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 31.3 which is 4th. CCA is currently ranked #9 in Class 3A at a 33.9 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 14.5 which is 17th. The Lions easily dispatched Somerset Academy last week. Calvary Christian picked up a quality win over Miami Edison in a game that some (ourselves included) felt that Edison would be the favorite. Since defeating Miami Central in week 10, Chaminade has outscored both Everglades and Somerset 108-0. Calvary Christian's biggest win this year was a 10-3 decision against Benjamin School. Chaminade has multiple high quality wins (Atlantic, Central, McArthur, Pahokee) and has played some of the states best. The Pick: Calvary is having a very good season, they finally broke into the top 100 in the state (96), but similar to last week Chaminade simply has better athletes. There's also a pretty significant gap in strength of schedule that's hard to ignore. MP: Chaminade by 19 Our Pick: Chaminade by 42 Clearwater Central Catholic(9-3) at Ft. Myers Bishop Verot(9-2) CCC is currently ranked #2 in Class 3A at a 46.7 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 32.5 which is 2nd. Bishop Verot is currently ranked #4 in Class 3A at a 42.1 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 22.8 which is 8th. Bishop Verot is having a spectacular season having defeated teams like Tampa Catholic, Benjamin, Barron Collier, North Ft. Myers and Lakeland Christian. The two losses were to American Heritage Delray and Uschool. CCC started 0-2 against powers Berkeley Prep and Brentwood Academy, would suffer a third defeat to Tampa Jesuit. Something happened after that loss as CCC would go on to defeat Clearwater, Uschool, Calvary Christian (Clearwater) and last week avenged the week 1 loss to Berkeley Prep 35-28 in 3OT's. The Pick: Credit to CCC for making their 8th consecutive regional championship game and winning their 100th game this decade. Credit to Bishop Verot for making their 2nd consecutive regional final appearance (last year in 4A). While there are a lot of competitive games this week, this is our game of the week due to the quality opponents each team has played. MP: CCC by 5 Our Pick: CCC by 3 Orlando First Academy(6-5) at Lakeland Christian (9-1) First Academy is currently ranked #23 in Class 3A at a 9.8 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 2.3 which is 26th. Lakeland Christian is currently ranked #12 in Class 3A at a 28.4 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 12 which is 19th. Lakeland Christian is 9-1, having won 8 consecutive games. LCS's only loss came in week 2 against Bishop Verot. LCS played a highly competitive game against MCC last week winning by a TD. First Academy was supposed to be rebuilding this year, but a late season surge got them into the playoffs and into a regional championship game. First Academy only has 4 seniors on the roster. The Pick: Let's not sugar coat it, we know that neither team has the schedule of say JaxTCA or CCC/Chaminade, but both teams have winning records and have proven to be the best teams in their region. LCS has clearly played a tougher schedule, but First Academy runs the Wing-T which can really be a struggle to defend. We like LCS in this one though. Our Pick: LCS by 14 MP: LCS by 21 FSU-DRS(10-1) at Pensacola Catholic (11-0) FSU is currently ranked #5 in Class 3A at a 41.6 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 16.9 which is 14th. Pensacola Catholic is currently ranked #7 in Class 3A at a 39.6 rating with a Strength of Schedule rating of 19.6 which is 9th. Pensacola Catholic is the last remaining undefeated team in 3A and has scored some good wins this year, but none better than their 2 TD win over Ocala Trinity last week. Many felt this Crusader team would be a threat in 3A Region 1 due to their strong senior class and tough to defend offense. FSU-DRS has only lost once and that was to always powerful Madison County. Ranking wise, these are evenly matched teams. The Pick: By virtue of where Pensacola Catholic is located, they have one heck of a homefield advantage. Tallahassee is a hike to Pensacola, but not the 6 hours that OTC faced last week. FSU-DRS might be ranked higher, but we'll take Pensacola Catholic at home this week. Our Pick: Pensacola Catholic by 3 MP: FSU-DRS by 2
  7. Oh hai guys and girls! In honor of the playoffs heating up, Brad and I decided to put together some information and look at round 2 of the 3A playoffs. We've posted stuff on twitter for general consumption, but wanted to go a bit deeper into things since we've been told (we know!) that conversation about small school football is hard to come by. We also wanted to put some points out there in response to other conversations from around the state. Random things we've been meaning to comment on! --> JaxTCA lost to Ocala Trinity 23-21 in round 1. We'll give OTC their due further down the page, but outside of the Pensacola Catholic loss in 2012, this has to be the most disappointing loss for JaxTCA in years. Let's be real, nobody wants to play JaxTCA, so they had to play one of the toughest schedules in recent memory. There was reason for hope when they defeated Raines in week 11, but the damage had already been done prior to the playoffs starting. JaxTCA entered the playoffs with more bodies on the sideline than on the field. We expected JaxTCA to roll through the playoffs, but it didn't happen. While we think the 2020 JaxTCA team has one of the highest talent and athletic windows in the state, it's also going to have to play another impossible schedule. --> We no longer live in a world where rankings can be based soley on records, but we also don't believe that just because a team plays a tough schedule they should be given a pass. Like a healthy diet, everything needs to be in moderation. We aren't suggesting 3A teams go play STA every week, but we aren't saying to load your schedule up with 4-6 teams who beat other 4-6 teams either. This has been a hot topic issue all year. --> We like the RPI system, but it needs tweaks to the OOWP. We have been in favor of combining 2A and 3A for years. Many 2A and 3A teams have natural rivalries and it doesn't change the geography of the state. Okay, now let's look Class 3A Round 2. Note, there are two predictions. Ours on top and the Maxpreps Prediction. We did NOT look at Maxprep's predictions prior to making our picks! Lakeland Christian (8-1) hosts Melbourne Central Catholic (4-6) LCS started the season off slow, but picked up momentum and has won 7 in a row. MCC has had a rough season this year, but did manage a victory at Frostproof. The Hustlers are balanced on offense and somewhat stout on defense. In their loses teams have had success running the ball. LCS has been rolling after a week 2 loss to Bishop Verot. LCS was always our pick to come out of region 2. MCC fights hard, but LCS gets the W. LCS by 14 MP: LCS by 9 Pensacola Catholic (10-0) vs Ocala Trinity Catholic (8-2) Rumors of OTC coming back to power were murmured in DM's, watercooler talk and noises in the night. After defeating JaxTCA the rumors have been verified, OTC is a legitimate football team again. Jamarian Samuel has been a superstar for OTC rushing for just over 2,200 yards and 23 TD's. We watched OTC vs Calvary Christian and even though OTC came up short on that night against a very good Calvary team, we knew they had potential to be great. Pensacola Catholic is having the season expected of them. They're 10-0 with a hefty senior class. They have a couple of good wins to their name, but no marquee wins. This is a hard nosed, tough football team that can harass quarterbacks. Catholic has one heck of a homefield advantage in this one. OTC has a 5.5 hour drive (One way), but if they can overcome the early emotion should pick up their second stellar win in a row. OTC by 7 MP: OTC by 1 Chaminade-Madonna (8-2) vs Somerset Academy (8-2) The 2x defending state champions start the playoffs against a good, but over matched opponent. Somerset isn't technically a bad football team in relationship to what their aspirations are, but Chaminade is simply better. The Lions won't need it this week, but they will need to continue to develop Brady Allen and Alexander Law at QB for next week. Also good news, the Lions are pretty much 100% healthy at this point outside of Willie Moise. Kudos to Somerset for a good 8-2 record, but this is the biggest mis-match in all of the small school games in Florida this week. Chaminade by 49. MP: Chaminade by 26 Miami Edison (6-5) vs Calvary Christian Academy (9-1) This game is a poster child for throwing out the records. Calvary is having a great season and did pull off quality wins over Benjamin and Miami Christian, but Miami Edison has played some of the best the state has to offer including Booker T, Northwestern, Carol City, Naples, Miami Central, Coral Gables. Edison has taken some losses, but they did manage to compete in some of those games and even pulled off a win over Carol City. Calvary has taken a few steps forward, but even with some lopsided losses we're going Miami Edison. Edison by 14. MP: Edison by 4. Benjamin School (8-3) at Bishop Verot (8-2) This should be a good game as the Bishop Verot Vikings are having a good season this year having defeated Lakeland Christian, Tampa Catholic and North Ft. Myers. They competed well, but came up short against American Heritage and always tough Uschool. Benjamin School hasn't been shabby themselves, their win over a good Cardinal Newman team last week was impressive and the Buccaneers have been consistent all season. We think Bishop Verot has to much speed for Benjamin School, but the Bucs will make this a game. Bishop Verot by 10 MP: BV by 10 FSU-DRS (9-1) vs Episcopal School of Jacksonville (10-1) On paper this game should favor FSU-DRS and Qb Willie Taggart Jr. FSU's only loss was to super tough Madison County, Episcopal School was blown out earlier in the year by Baldwin but avenged that loss last week 35-25. This is a high quality match-up, but we're going FSU-DRS in this one. FSU has played a significantly tougher schedule. We just think they have the passing attack to open this game. FSU-DRS by 20 MP: Episcopal by 20 Berkeley Prep (8-1) vs Clearwater Central Catholic (8-3) There are many individuals around the state who feel that this Berkeley Prep team can win class 3A this year. They have a devastating 3 pronged rushing attack lead by one of the better linemen in the state Zach Perkins, a stout passing game and a defense giving up less than 10 points per game lead by one of the top linebackers in the country, Jaylen Harrell. Dom Ciao, the HC at Berkeley is one of the best coaches in the business. They have home field advantage against the teams they need it against and they also have a 21-14 win over CCC. Of course, that win was in week 1. To say CCC has gotten better since their early season losses to Tampa Jesuit, Berkeley and Brentwood is an understatement. They are 8-1 since starting 0-2. They do hold wins over Clearwater, Uschool, Sebring and a rout of Tampa Catholic. CCC has clearly played a tougher schedule at this point. We pegged Berkeley facing Calvary Christian in the regional finals playing a classic and surviving. Part of this is because we also felt Berkeley and Calvary were far and away better than the rest of the region. CCC put a running clock on Calvary in the third quarter. Berkeley is better than Calvary, but they aren't playing better than CCC right now. Still, Berkeley has had 2 weeks to prep for this match-up and that will be the difference. Berkeley by 10 MP: Berkeley by 3 And because we have friends at Tampa Catholic! 4A! Tampa Catholic (6-5) at American Heritage (5-5) Tampa Catholic started off the season on fire at 2-0 and winning by a combined 78-14, then they faced 0-2 CCC who finally got healthy and was run off the field. That can be forgiven. TC then caught fire and won the next two games 125-0. They then lost to Berkeley Prep in a game they were down 21-16 with the ball under 2 minutes, but couldn't convert. Then they lost Winter Haven, then they lost to Bishop Verot and for the 20th consecutive year lost to Tampa Jesuit. The point? TC is very good at running the score up on bad teams, but not so good at scoring against good teams. American Heritage is a good team that could be very good if not for being bit by the injury bug. TC doesn't really have a signature win, but they have levels of competitiveness against good teams. Outside of the CCC game, they were at least in every other game until the 4th quarter. My understanding is that AHD is finally healthy which doesn't bode well for TC. This is a shame because on paper, TC should be one of the top teams in the state but clearly something is holding them back. AHD by 14 MP: AHD by 4
  8. University School threw multiple interceptions early in the game, 2 in the first half, 1 in the second half on drives they were moving the ball. Bishop Verot was up 6-0 at halftime. In the second half, the Uschool passing game finally got on track and provided separation. Uschool won the second half 21-7. I admit that we got this one wrong. Bishop Verot appears ready to be a force in their region with their athletes. There are some good video highlights and commentary of the game on the Ft. Myers TV station. I don't have a link but watched it yesterday. This might end up being a bigger win for Uschool than first thought.
  9. Agreed. I would not want to be Bishop Verot this week.
  10. We admit when we are wrong! Congratulations to Vero Beach High School and their fans on one of the more impressive wins we've seen recently. It's one thing to win, but to hold Chaminade to 0 points, we would vote in favorite of giving you a 61st consecutive victory if that were possible! We felt confident that the staff at Chaminade would have their team more prepared than this, but it's back to the drawing board for the Lions. We still like Chaminade, but that's a tale for another message board topic. For now, the focus should be on Vero winning.
  11. This is 100% on STA. Chaminade-Madonna has wanted to play STA since Jason Milgrom rebuilt Chaminade to the point they've been told to tone it down by the ADOM which STA is a part of and C-M is a contributing member of (due to being sponsored by a religious community). As a result of the numerous requests was that starting in 2019 Chaminade and STA would start playing each other in JV. Granted it's JV and not indicative of varsity, but Chaminade ran STA off the field with homegrown talent- very few transfers on JV for Chaminade. They actually play a second JV game later this year. I'm told that to get on STA's varsity schedule is usually something that needs to be done 3-5 years in advance due to the way their specific scheduling setup works. Even if it was a preseason or spring game it would be a start. If Chaminade wins 3A in 2019 and upsets JaxTCA in the process to win their 3rd consecutive 3A state championship, STA will no longer be able to ignore "little" Chaminade and more people will start calling them out to play Chaminade.
  12. I would respectfully say Uschool beating Davie Western 14-9 was a big win for Uschool. Uschool caught a lot of unnecessary flank from fans for losing to McArthur 19-0 but they had their QB and I'm told others out. Apparently, Western is one of the better teams in South Florida and Uschool never trailed. I'm interested in the Uschool-Columbus game and hope it's streamed!
  13. Belen Jesuit has a couple of great athletes with good coaching. Here's my husband's theory.. Belen had good off-season hype due to returning talent which was magnified by beating CCC and tying Gibbons in the Spring. After digging into that specific evening, neither Gibbons or CCC prepared for Jesuit since they were added to the jamboree a day before the jamboree. Once the pre-season rolled around Jesuit was exposed by University School and then destroyed by Columbus which is bringing expectations back down to reality. They're a good team that if they have a great night can pull an upset provided the other team doesn't have the chance to prepare for them.
  14. Your point is well taken, but AHP "beat" Chaminade in a game that was played under odd rules. #1) The game featured 3 10 minute quarters. #2) Despite being 20-13, the 4th, 10 minute quarter was played with a running clock. Chaminade held out Willie Moise (4 star DT) and Elijah Cannon (game changing WR). Even with all of that said, Chaminade had the ball at the AHP 15 with under 2 minutes left with a change to tie or win the game. I've spoken with no less than 7 people about the game on social media in background messages and the overall feeling is that Chaminade was the better team and likely wins by a TD if the game is played with normal rules. To AHP's credit, they do have a very good passing attack. Chaminade doesn't have the superstar power in the secondary of years past, but if Moise plays, I think the QB for AHP is held in check. To bad they don't play in the regular season this year.
  15. I know, it's sad! :-( Boo Spectrum! CCC seems to be hit or miss on streaming their games and TC doesn't stream at all or at least I don't know of them streaming anything. With the amount of talent on the field when they play that would be an easy selection. Now that they are in separate classes it also stinks the game will only happen once per year. If Spectrum still broadcast games I imagine they would also be all over the CCC vs Clearwater game. I'm sad to also hear the rumored Lakewood vs Tampa Catholic game didn't happen.
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