DarterBlue2
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Posts posted by DarterBlue2
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7 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch said:
Home field matters to some. There are teams that travel better than others and some that travel poorly.
I'll take home field anytime, and be happy for the revenue it brings.
justsayin...
Can't argue with the revenue thing ...
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6 minutes ago, Mustangs78 said:
With Vero, there are 2 counties in between them and Palm Beach (St, Lucie and Martin), they are much more East Central Florida than South Florida.
Yes, and no. I see the south end of Brevard County which is long (north to south), as the end of Central Florida. If Vero was right on the county line (as Lakeland is to Hillsborough), I could see the argument.
In any case, historically, Vero has sometimes played in a District with the Palm Beach County teams. To the best of my knowledge in recent times (1990s to today), they have never played in a district with Central Florida teams.
The point I am making is that since there is a dearth of games between Vero Beach and Central Florida teams (at least till the playoffs), it is kind of hard to put them in Central Florida. What basis would one really have to rank them? At least with the Brevard teams, there are enough games each year with the rest of Central Florida to have a pretty good idea where they would rank.
- DisabledAccount, Trelle, 954gator and 1 other
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5 minutes ago, Mustangs78 said:
Dang Badbird, there you go again! Seminolee, Osceola, Orange, and Volusia. If you included Brevard and even Indian River, all those teams drop 3. Cocoa 1, Viera 2, Vero 3. and that is with Vero beating Viera (Viera had 600 yrd. off. and 7 TO). also Spruce Creek should be 5, they could beat DP, Apopka, n Lake Mary this year. Jones is best team, #1
Vero Beach is as easily Palm Beach County as it is Central Florida (it is neither is my point). I do agree Brevard County should be included. But BadBird has decided to stick with the Orlando Sentinel coverage area which he specified in his post.
If we included Brevard, both Cocoa and Viera would be in the top 5 for sure. However, I don't necessarily think the two would be numbers 1 and 2. I can think of 4 teams in BadBird's rankings that would have an excellent chance of beating both Cocoa and Viera.
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29 minutes ago, badbird said:
Lake Mary was really good in 2013 and 2014 and lost to First Coast in the second round both years. Then they had two down years. I don't see this team as good as those they had back then but there is also not a team like First Coast was in this region. The next two games will show a lot. I wasn't surprised they beat OC University but I was surprised by the score. I think the Seminole game is a toss up and I would favor Winter Park. I wonder how both teams lake Mary and WP) decide to play that game because they could easily see each other again in the second round. Winter Park is already in and if lake Mary beats Seminole they will be in so the game won't really matter other than seeding and possibly home field advantage. I for one think home field is vastly over rated in high school with the exception of a few places.
In 2013 and 14, they had Nick Westbrook who was a stud receiver. In addition they had the Milkin (sp) brothers one of whom is now at OC University. So I agree. Those teams may have been a little better; at least offensively. This team does have a couple of tall receivers who create mismatches. I am more impressed with one than the other based solely on work ethic. But both are problematic for opposing secondaries.
If Seminole could reproduce the Lake Brantley game, I would agree Lake Mary would have all it could handle. But it seems, for whatever reason, that Seminole has slipped since that game. I am not close enough to the program to has at a reasonable guess why this is so.
You raise an intriguing point regarding the Lake Mary/Winter Park game. One wonders why they ever scheduled this game and if they had trouble filling out their schedules whether they could have tried to play this earlier in the season and not so close to the playoffs. I could totally see this game not being reflective of the true merits of either team as there would be a lot of incentive to keep things close to the vest.
I agree with you that in most cases home field advantage is overblown.
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Solid ratings.
I think Lake Mary may be a bit low, though. While some of their fans lack class, the football team is playing very well right now. I suspect they beat both Seminole and Winter Park to end the season with one loss.
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2 hours ago, SPCjessica2004 said:
I watched the Booker T. vs Chaminade game. Booker T was probably a little bit better than Chaminade, but the QB went out very early in the 2nd quarter with the game tied 7-7. Booker T. was a totally different team after that point, obviously Chaminade is a great team and Carol City is just as good. I don't think Booker T. has packed it in, I think they're just getting beat since they can't move the football against these elite teams.
I think they'll beat the living poop out of Evans next week, but won't make the playoffs.Sounds about right to me. There will probably be a running clock either at the beginning of the second half or shortly after.
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2 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:
So probably like Lincoln for past few seasons
Yes, pretty much so.
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9 hours ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:
What were your thoughts on Lincoln?
From watching the video of the game, Lincoln is okay on offense. They were able to sustain a couple drives on VB and pick up good yards. On defense the VB receivers kept getting wide open and VB had many big pickups. VB's big running back Dixon also had a couple big runs breaking arm tackles along the way. They also got burned on a kickoff return and on a blocked punt.
To me they looked like a Central Florida 4-6 to 7-3 type team depending on their schedule: the kind of team that would have an outside shot at making the playoffs but would most likely be one and done if they did.
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47 minutes ago, Floridatechfootball said:
even the guys i sit next to complain about them im not a homer
Trust me, Vero's QB is okay. He may not play QB at the next level. Or if he does, it won't be at a major program. But as a high school QB, even on a state caliber team, he is more than adequate. He benefits from good receivers who run very precise routes. VB may or may not go deep in the playoffs. But what is pretty certain to me is, they have a really good shot. Running back Dixon is a very good, "thunder" type running back. He does not have a lot of speed but is very difficult to bring down and he gets the tough yards between the tackles.
You are being way too critical of Vero's chances in my opinion. And I am an outside observer with no hidden agenda.
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5 minutes ago, Zoe Boy said:
18-0 Carol City... BTW without Qb Richardson tonight..
Sucks for BTW. They are probably out of the playoffs now. Casualty of the new system and a very difficult schedule.
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Has a big day as UCF defeats Navy to go 6-0 for the first time ever.
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1 hour ago, Floridatechfootball said:
Yall really on Veros hype again this year huh Osceole Apopka Dr Phillips wekiva etc.... ion like dat QB play this year
The QB is fine. Vero has a really good chance. Trust me. Not a lock, but a good chance.
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2 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:
Can anyone explain why football so bad there? Is there a specific reason? Coaching? Talent?
It's not talent.
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25 minutes ago, Floridatechfootball said:
Yes and thats why I think Vero will lose second or third round
Who do you think will beat Vero Beach?
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Next Friday, Wekiva High School makes the trip to Apopka for the 11th meeting of the two schools on the football field. Apopka has won the previous 10, all by substantial margins, except last year's game which came down to the wire in the 4th quarter when down by 7, Apopka rallied on big plays to win by a score. This year Wekiva comes into the game in the driver's seat in the four team district at 2-0. Apopka is at 1-1 and West Orange 2-1 with its victory over Evans last night.
Under the old district set up, this game would be a must win situation for Apopka, a win and all three teams are tied at 2-1 while lose and Wekiva would be district champ with West Orange district runner up. Thus, Apopka could be a beneficiary under the new system as a loss to Wekiva would not automatically eliminate them. West Orange, on the other hand, will need a lot of help from other teams under the new system, regardless of the Wekiva/Apopka outcome.
Based on current form, Wekiva must be considered the favorite over Apopka despite the fact they have never beaten them. The teams only loss was to an unbeaten Winter Park which wrapped up its Region 1, District last evening with a comfortable 27-7 victory over a good , if not great, Boone team. Against common opponents, Wekiva have been more impressive than Apopka. Specifically, in its 14-0 victory over Dr. Phillips, DP's total offensive yardage was under a hundred, and, despite DP getting good starting field position at least twice, its offense went nowhere. While Apopka was impressive in its 21-14 victory over DP, DP was able to rack up over 250 yards of offense. West Orange presents an even more stark contrast as Wekiva defeated them 24-17, while Apopka lost to them 27-31, in the process giving up well over 300 yards of total offense and an additional 80+ via a long punt return for a touchdown. Granted Apopka had a chance to win this game when they lost the ball at the WO 6 yard line with just over 3 minutes left in the game.
Based on history, Apopka should win the game, as even last year, when Wekiva seemed to have the game won, Apopka found a way to come back and win.
This years game has a number of talking points. Wekiva was built as a relief school for Apopka and pulled away 1,500+ kids from APK, largely from Piedmont Lakes and Lockhart Middle schools. Wekiva's other enrollment consists of kids who formerly would have been zoned for: Edgewater, Evans and Ocoee, with the majority of those from Edgewater and Evans. Despite this connection, in the 10 years of Wekiva's existence, there have been few football transfers between them and Apopka, largely limited to one or two per year. However, this year, there are a number of Apopka Blue Darter alumni on the Wekiva squad, including more than a couple former Apopka starters. How they will perform against their former school is a matter of interest, as will the response of the current Blue Darters to playing against former teammates.
My take on the game is as follows. Apopka came into the West Orange game banged up. In addition, they were coming off a weekday game against DP on two days rest. Add the distraction of homecoming, and I don't think the team performed at its sharpest. If the injured players come out of the bye week healthy, and if, this team has the desire to make a playoff run, then I think Apopka can find a way to pull this one out. But it won't be easy. Wekiva to my way of thinking has the better defense. I would pick their front 7 over Apopka's, while I think the secondaries are about equal. On offense, I am not sure. When Robles was taking the snaps, I liked Apopka's offense over Wekiva's. With Brandon Brown now taking the snaps (at least most of them), not only has he added a running dimension but I think their passing game has also improved. If Apopka is healthy, I would rate the team's offenses about equal with Apopka having the edge on the Offensive Line.
I am going to take Apopka by 1 in this game. A likely score is Apopka 22 Wekiva 21. I am doing this on the belief that the Darters will have their heads screwed on right for this game which is not only for relative assurance of a playoff spot but for area bragging rights and the Mayor's Cup. However, this will be a very difficult game that will require minimum mistakes and maximum effort!! In order to win, Apopka will need to limit Wekiva to no more than three scores as I feel it will be difficult for Apopka to score more than 24 against their defense.
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2 hours ago, Roadkillav8r said:
Dan, I'm thoroughly familiar with his website and find it very illuminating and I think he does a good job. My curiosity really comes from why he has Niceville ranked so high. What has he seen that I haven't seen.
Please see my post immediately above. He has "not seen" anything. His model is based on connectivity and his rankings are based on this connectivity yielding the results he posts.
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6 hours ago, Dan in Daytona said:
Roadkill, I'll volunteer some info on Larry's website. He's a long time numbers guy. Think he started the Laz Index in 1999. Like Maxpreps, Calpreps, Pinko's, and the earlier computer polls started decades ago ( Dunkel Index, Jeff Sagarin ) they all analyze ball scores and rate teams accordingly. He's one of the 6-12 Flavarsity message board guys who try and hook up at the FHSAA Football Championships in December. We usually go for food and drinks between the games. Checkout his website below. His Florida High School power rating since 1999 are eye opening. Also Top 100 in wins, playoff games, percentages, etc,etc. Click the "Florida's Best" at the top of the page for the real in state powerhouses, not the flash in the pan teams of 2 or 3 years.......great website for a numbers guy.
Laz's method takes the results from each week for every team in the state. His algorithms look for connectivity which help determine his rankings. As an example, say a Central Florida area team plays a Panhandle team (happens even if not often), and another Central Florida area team plays a South Florida team, then connectivity between the two Central Florida teams (either through a game against each other or through a common opponent) will help evaluate the relative strength of the Panhandle teams vis a viz the South Florida teams. Based on this, Laz's system tends to work best after week five when there is a more reasonable basis as a few of these out of region games will have occurred. At the beginning of the season it is less accurate since it is relying on a lot of the prior year's results which may or may not be reflective of current year relative strength.
I have found Laz's method to be very good late in the regular season and come playoff time.
And, yes, like all computer based systems, it has its shortfalls. However, since it is based solely on outcomes on the field and tries to relate all regions of the state to each other, at least the approach despite is shortfalls, is objective, and not subject to emotion and personal bias.
Over the years, Laz has had trouble with the Hillsborough area teams since they tend to play almost all their games in County based on local school board policy. Thus it has been hard to find connectivity links for those teams.
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Lake Mary scored on its first three possessions and never looked back as they put a running clock on Orange City early in the 4th quarter. From the beginning Lake Mary controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. And, unlike the Lake Brantley game, in this one their defense looked pretty good. Their first touchdown came on a shovel pass on made on first and goal from the 5 with 5:43 left in the first quarter. No 17, Rodriquez had a great game catching three or four touchdown. While No 7, Brandon Brown the QB, was good both through the air and running the ball, as he kept several QB keepers for big yardage.
OC University did not score till halfway through the second quarter to cut the lead to 21-7. However, LM quickly answered and then scored again for good measure to take a 35-7 lead into the half. I left at the beginning of the fourth quarter when LM scored from one yard out to make it 49-13, which began the running clock with over 11 minutes left in the game. I left at this point. I don't know whether OC University was feeling the effects of playing two games this week or where senior night distractions got to them. But this game was not close. Aside from Lingard (more on this in the next paragraph) who got some tough yards and touchdowns, the offense did not do much. The QB was hurried all night as the O Line failed to provide enough protection and did not do a particularly good job blocking. Personally, while LM is probably the better team, I refuse to believe that they are this better than University.
A final comment. I will preface it by saying this is not something I usually comment on. The overall deportment of the Lake Mary fans was terrible. In fact, in the 20 seasons I have watched the high school game in Florida, I can think of only one worse set of fans who will remain nameless since I experienced their bad behavior a long time ago. For middle aged men in their 40s and 50s to be screaming at the top of their voice for the Lake Mary defense to take out Lorenzo Lingard's legs is inexcusable. To add to this, they complained about every call that did not go their way (even though they were winning comfortably) and kept screaming at the officials for not making calls when their players absorbed any type of physical punishment. It seems sportsmanship and civility has gone totally out the window. Come on people. If your son, nephew or neighbor chooses to play football, he will absorb hits! IT'S part of the game! To be shouting for Lingard to intentionally injured is beyond the pale!
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Orlando Area:
Winter Park 27 Boone 7
Wekiva 61 Orlando University 7
Dr. Phillips 31 Olympia 10
Lake Mary 49 OC University 20 (more on this in a separate post)
West Orange 45 Evans 14
Edgewater 41 East Ridge 21
Lake Nona 29 East River 16
Osceola 43 Haines City 0
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27 minutes ago, badbird said:
Overall thoughts in 3A
major blunders right now
Oxbridge a #3 seed and probably the best or second best team in the state.
Pierson Taylor in the playoffs and MCC out
St Andrews as a 2 seed and Benjamin out who will probably put a running clock on them this week.
So far, then, 3A is the most problematic pending your 4A analysis.
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3 minutes ago, Bamarod said:
Viera played down at Vero Beach for preseason game. One of the best atmospheres I have been a part of for sure. For anyone that knows' how good is the Vero team compared to recent ones. They seem to have a history of having a great regular season record and then laying an egg first couple rounds of play-offs. From our game, it was hard to tell because Viera had 7 turnovers but was driving for the winning score in 4th qt. Vero Beach had talent all over the field and seemed to have plenty of depth also.
Having seen a number of Vero games on film, my feeling is that, this Vero team is at least as good as it's been in the past four years. They benefit from the fact that the other teams in Regions 1 and 2 do not seem to have a State Title caliber team.
Vero, in my opinion, has a great opportunity to go deep in the playoffs this year.
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31 minutes ago, peezy28 said:
That is a huge turn around
It is. There is no reason why Edgewater should not field a decent team each year, though. The school's zone has enough talent in it. They should be competing for a playoff spot each year.
Credit to the new staff for the turnaround!
Vero Beach beats Lincoln 35-7
in The Huddle
Posted
I have seen six of Vero's games on Youtube. I think Nick is a good high school QB, very capable of leading his team deep in the playoffs. I don't think he is elite. If he proves me wrong, I say more power to him. My comments were not meant to diminish Nick in any sense. Just offering an opinion based on seeing a lot of high school QBs over the years.