Nulli Secundus
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Posts posted by Nulli Secundus
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25 minutes ago, Perspective said:
Nulli, I appreciate all the work that went into this. It's very instructive.
But, it's impossible to answer your question without having something to compare it to. What teams should have gotten in, but didn't? Is the seeding accurate? I guess if No. 1 seeds end up playing No. 2 seeds across the board you could say they got it right. Time will tell.
Thanks Perspective. Sometimes my mind wanders and I do stuff like this to focus just for fun.
I agree that it really is impossible to answer my question unless you have something to compare it to. By comparison what, makes Team A worthy to occupy a playoff slot over the other teams? The only fair way to do this is by results on the field. I agree that there is no way to do this fairly as there's not enough time in the world for each team to play another which would IN FACT be the closest indicator of who is better.
I also agree regarding the seeding aspect. If teams are seeded according to strength of schedule, W/L etc, etc, it would be plausible to think that No. 1 seeds would end up playing No. 2 seeds across the board with the No. 1's coming out on top. Any deviation from that assumption shows a potential flaw in the system which should be analyzed. This is evidenced just by looking at the upcoming round 3 games. The mere fact that entering the 3rd round where are 64 teams remaining, If seeding truly indicated the winner of the games then there should only be No. 1's playing at this point. Looking as illustrated above, only 28 1's have made it this far. What does that mean? Probably nothing. Then again, probably a lot. It certainly opens to the door to re-examine the playoff selection process.
That's why they play the game, LOL. However, this does make for interesting conversation and speculation for years to come.
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1 hour ago, FishBowl said:
I say you bring your team and Ill bring mine. There are too many intangibles with the point system.
This is in fact the only unbiased way to settle things once and for all. Let the chips fall where they may so-to-speak. Intangibles are subjective and always leave room for error; Team A's schedule is stronger than team B's schedule, Team B's opponents are stronger than Team C's opponents. The sky was blue, the night was cold, there was a monsoon. Trust me, I get it. The only thing that matters is the score when the 4th qtr clock strikes 0:00.
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22 hours ago, DarterBlue2 said:
I believe that this year, the RPI is an improvement over the old system. Do I believe this would hold for say the next 10 years? The answer to this depends on father time's verdict.
Father time allows for great retrospection, unfortunately not redo's. Like you said, we have to wait on that verdict to decide but definitely a great point.
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Good question, LOL!
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What an exciting time of the year! The temperatures are starting to cool off and the playoffs are really heating up! As we prepare for the 3rd round, I'd like to take a few moments to discuss my unsolicited opinions regarding RPI. I will freely admit that I was not (still not) a fan of the formula used. For me, I believe it was a drastic change from what I was accustomed to but change is inevitable right?
With that being said, as I skimmed through the remaining teams and their seeding, I must say I'm impressed. Of the 32 games in the 3rd round, all 32 games include at least one team 3 seed or higher representing 87.5% of all teams still in the title hunt. That's really amazing to see that materialize. One would expect all #1's to win but that's why they play the game, LOL. On the flip side, the lone 8 seed still alive accounts for ~1.5%
1 seeds - 28 or ~44%
2 seeds - 16 or 25%
3 seeds - 12 or ~19%
4 seeds - 1 or ~1.5%
5 seeds - 2 or ~3%
6 seeds - 2 or ~3%
7 seeds - 2 or ~3%
8 seeds - 1 or ~1.5%8A
1 Seminole
3 Apopka1 Palm Beach Central
2 Treasure Coast1 Venice
2 West Orange5 Columbus
2 Palmetto7A
1 Buchholz
7 Nease4 Lake Gibson
3 Melbourne1 Tampa Bay Tech
6 Wharton1 St. Thomas Aquinas
2 Homestead6A
1 Pine Forest
2 Mosley1 Vanguard
3 Jones1 Jesuit
7 Hillsborough8 Plantation
3 Northwestern5A
1 Baker County
3 Wakulla1 Merritt Island
6 Satellite1 Clearwater
3 Sebring1 Killian
3 Central4A
1 South Walton
2 Bolles1 Cocoa
2 The Villages Charter1 Lakewood
3 Clewiston1 Gulliver Prep
2 Cardinal Gibbons3A
1 Trinity Catholic
3 Florida State University H1 Lakeland Christian
2 Benjamin1 Berkeley Prep
2 Clearwater Central Catholic1 Chaminade-Madonna
3 Cardinal Newman2A
1 Trinity Christian Academy
2 Munroe1 Orlando Christian Prep
2 Zephyrhills Christian Ac1 First Baptist Academy
2 Northside Christian5 John Carroll Catholic
2 Champagnat Catholic1A
1 Baker
2 Chipley1 Blountstown
3 Madison County1 Chiefland
3 Union County1 Hawthorne
2 PahokeeForgive me as I'm watching college football, Cowboy Bebop on Netflix and typing so my focus is all over the place. I guess what I'm really trying to say is no system is perfect. However, for all the imperfections that people have outlined regarding RPI, do you believe the FHSAA got it right this year?
- skyway, Ray Icaza, Dan in Daytona and 2 others
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1 hour ago, FishBowl said:
This forum got real quiet.
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26 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:
What a defensive struggle as both sides dominated the offense the entire game. Difference in the game again was too many turnovers by OHS especially a bad punt snap deep in our territory that led to a safety . West Orange managed one sustained drive the entire game for the only offensive TD. Osceola managed one sustain drive the entire game for their only TD. Game was 9-7 with 18 seconds left in the game and we tried a desperation play and turned it over for the 4th or 5th time deep in our territory and they turned it into a TD with time expiring. Final of 15-7 doesn't reflect the fact that outcome was still in doubt till the final seconds. Congrats to them getting the win, but I still feel we were the better team but again self-inflicted wounds was the difference. Future looks bright for Osceola as they now have a year with a returning offensive line of underclassmen (Freshmen, sophs and juniors) 7 or 8 deep; only loss on the OL is a senior we moved over from defense at tackle. We knew that to be our weakness to begin the season and even though they continued to improve throughout the year, they had a tough time matching up with top notch DL like Cocoa and West Orange. Our defense should be just as strong if not better returning most key players including 4 starters in the DL, including both 4* prospects John Walker and Derrick LeBlanc each with dozens of offers including Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Auburn, Texas, etc... Great season for our Kowboys, so hold your heads high as you made your fans proud. GO KOWBOYS.
It's hard to beat a decent team twice. Unfortunately the Kowboys were on the losing side tonight. Congrats on a great season. You'll be back next year.
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51 minutes ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
FiNAL Dillard 14 homestead 28 I’m mad As Hell! I’m so upset I got tears in my eyes
We were the overall better team man, we just made to MANY mistakes to be the better team tonight, DAM BROOO!!
we made to many mistakes we came away we NO points when we were at their 4 yard line, we dropped a easy pick 6 that would’ve gave us the lead & over all our offensive game plan was vanilla as hell especially against aggressive defense just like ours.
homestead threw things at Dillard that thy looked I’ll prepared for, the Qb option bit them in the ass again & on top it all we couldn’t stop getting penalized.
all recipes to lose a second round playoff game on the road, I know I’m going to get all the I told you so’s , that’s why Dillard need to play tougher comp etc etc & I welcome it all because tonight we played like we were the underdog instead of punching them in the mouth.
congrats to homestead they played with a edge Dillard just couldn’t seem to match on this rainy night in homestead & with that said I’m hurt as fu** right now, but mad more then anything. Smfh.
57 minutes ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:FiNAL Dillard 14 homestead 28 I’m mad As Hell! I’m so upset I got tears in my eyes
We were the overall better team man, we just made to MANY mistakes to be the better team tonight, DAM BROOO!!
we made to many mistakes we came away we NO points when we were at their 4 yard line, we dropped a easy pick 6 that would’ve gave us the lead & over all our offensive game plan was vanilla as hell especially against aggressive defense just like ours.
homestead threw things at Dillard that thy looked I’ll prepared for, the Qb option bit them in the ass again & on top it all we couldn’t stop getting penalized.
all recipes to lose a second round playoff game on the road, I know I’m going to get all the I told you so’s , that’s why Dillard need to play tougher comp etc etc & I welcome it all because tonight we played like we were the underdog instead of punching them in the mouth.
congrats to homestead they played with a edge Dillard just couldn’t seem to match on this rainy night in homestead & with that said I’m hurt as fu** right now, but mad more then anything. Smfh.
You're mad a hell as you posted it twice, LMAO!
Seriously, congrats on a great season. I hope the Panthers that return next year remember this season and use it as a building block to go further in 2022! Go hard in the off season!
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1 minute ago, skyway said:
Makes us feel a little better! They absolutely stunk it up following the first Lakeland win. I think, if they're focused, the next game will be no big deal. But Bucholz and of course STA will be brutal.
I was thinking the same thing about the 3rd round but didn't want to get ahead of myself, LOL.
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15 minutes ago, skyway said:
Edgewater couldn't stop Jaylon Glover in the 1st half, then couldn't stop the QB on the keeper in the second half. Edgewater also faced a similar dilemma as Lakeland in that they didn't trust their QB to zip the ball against a secondary with about 16 stars worth of talent.
Such is life regarding the talent. Glad LG is moving on.
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7 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:
Edgewater could not stop Lake Gibson's #1. He picked up large chunks of real estate on 50% of his carries.
It's been happening all season. Lakeland found out twice, LOL. Knowing what the game plan is and stopping the game plan are two different things.
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Really shocked by the Frostproof score as it appeared they had LCS on the ropes most of the game at least from a scoring standpoint. Victory couldn't hold on in the 2nd half. Didn't expect A-dale to get beat down that badly. Not shocked that LG is winning but I didn't expect the margin to be what it is. Lake Wales fell apart in the 4th qtr. Congrats to all the schools moving on and congrats to the schools that were defeated tonight on a great season.
Vanguard 24, Lake Wales 13
Lakeland Christian 10, Frostproof 3
Jones 43, Auburndale 7
Zephyrhills Christian 24, Victory Christian 16
Lake Gibson 32, Edgewater 14 -
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6 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:
I have praised Polk in previous threads for their annual representation in the playoffs as they are an adjoining county to Osceola. Using that reference to answer Perspective's question, Polk has double the population of Osceola but is represented by 10 teams while Osceola has 1. Solid football in Polk throughout the county but not so much in ours. During a state championship final I heard an announcer quote a stat the Osceola Kowboy football had roughly 45 playoff "WINS" while the other combined schools (8) had maybe 4 or 5. Pitiful.
You give Polk too much credit. Believe it or not, Polk is a shell of it's former self. It's not for lack of talent but county growth and evolution has definitely taken a toll. More growth has led to a dilution of talent. More sprawl thins out that talent even more by way of more public schools and even the emergence of area private schools. The killer attitude that I remember growing up is not the same thing that I see today. I'm not saying it doesn't exist but I'm simply saying that I just don't see it. Maybe it's my absence as I left in '94. There was a time that Polk ran I-4/Central Florida. The hell with Hillsborough, Orange and anyone else. Pinellas, LMAO. Not so much these days. The gap is no longer is wide as it once was which is good for football. Story for another day.
Regarding Osceola County, look at it like this. Don't compare Osceola to Polk. Polk has 10 teams this week and worse case could be out completely by week 3. So what Osceola only has 1 team in the playoffs. It only takes one team to win a title which Osceola has done and made it to the big dance repeatedly. Find solace in that Osceola has done more with less. Need a pick me up! Look at Orange County. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Orange is horrible but if you think I'm kidding, look up historical matchups between Orange and neighboring counties. Orange County has routinely underperformed with arguably one of the easier paths to the finals. The route to the finals in the largest class in the north has routinely gone through the Orlando area and Jacksonville. We all know who runs Duval county so that's not worth discussing. Statistically by comparison, Orange County in 8A alone almost has the same advantage to get to the title game much like when Miami-Dade did in 6A back in the day when they occupied a region and a half in the playoffs. However, Orange also has a chance to do what no other county has ever done since the advent of the FHSAA which is play another county for a title. That's simultaneously awesome as hell and a fiasco. The point is that Osceola is Osceola. You all are good. Alright, I'm done with my rant.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the Nulli Secundus and do not reflect Lakeland Senior High School or school moto, Polk County or any posters affiliated with any of the aforementioned entities or personas.
- Ray Icaza and Perspective
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1 hour ago, Perspective said:
Gee, it's almost like the larger the population of the county and, thus, the more schools in the county, the more schools in that county make the playoffs.
Good work Nolebull. All kidding aside, it would be interesting to see how county population correlates with the number of teams in the playoffs. I imagine there's some dis-proportionality in some places, but it appears there is a correlation between population and number of teams in the playoffs.
Here you go! Population base on 2020 census numbers:
County Population # Playoff Teams
Miami-Dade 2701767 17
Broward 1944375 19
Palm Beach 1492191 15
Hillsborough 1459762 15
Orange 1429908 13
Duval 995567 14
Pinellas 959107 10
Lee 760822 8
Polk 725046 10
Brevard 606612 8
Pasco 561891 6
Volusia 553543 4
Seminole 470856 3
Sarasota 434006 3
Manatee 399710 2
Osceola 388656 1
Lake 383956 3
Marion 375908 5
Collier 375752 4
St. Lucie 329226 4
Escambia 321905 3
Leon 292198 5
Alachua 278468 5
St. Johns 273425 2
Clay 218245 2
Okaloosa 211668 3
Hernando 194515 2
Santa Rosa 188000 1
Charlotte 186847 2
Bay 175216 2
Indian River 159788 1
Martin 158431 1
Citrus 153843 0
Sumter 129752 3
Flagler 115378 0
Highlands 101235 2
Nassau 90352 1
Monroe 82874 0
Walton 75305 3
Putnam 73321 1
Columbia 69698 2
Jackson 47319 2
Gadsden 43826 2
Suwannee 43474 0
Levy 42915 1
Okeechobee 39644 0
Hendry 39619 1
DeSoto 33976 0
Wakulla 33764 1
Bradford 28303 1
Baker 28259 1
Hardee 25327 0
Washington 25318 1
Taylor 21796 0
Holmes 19653 1
Madison 17968 1
Gilchrist 17864 1
Dixie 16759 0
Union 16147 1
Jefferson 14510 0
Gulf 14192 2
Hamilton 14004 0
Calhoun 13648 1
Franklin 12451 0
Glades 12126 0
Lafayette 8226 1
Liberty 7974 1
- Perspective, KeemD321, DarterBlue2 and 2 others
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17 hours ago, Jambun82 said:
When and how did he pass?
Laconia passed in 2017 but I don't know how.
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48 minutes ago, Jambun82 said:
That means that you were there with He Hate Me, and the other running back who had the big afro. I think that his last names was Worlds or something like that. My school made the trip to Bryant Stadium in 1994.
Yeah, Rod "He Hate Me" Smart
and Laconia Worlds, r.i.p.
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4 hours ago, Dan in Daytona said:
Shout-out to the longest consecutive, still running, public school, playoff streak in Florida*. It's been an up and down year, but the high pedigree (28 yrs) continues.... Buc Forever.
(*) Lakeland High's consecutive streak started in 1993. But in 2010 the FHSAA vacated their playoff results. Tampa Plant knocked them out in the semi-finals.
I can't think of a better program to carry that flag. Congrats to the Bucs! I wish you guys all the prosperity in the world except against Polk County, LOL.
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5 minutes ago, skyway said:
I was there '93-95 seasons. He was a bit of a dinosaur even then lol. I'd like to see them line up a successor-maybe Kendrick Stewart- before he heads out.
I was there 91-93 with Dale Terrell. That guy was huge back in junior high, LOL. Lucky, The Boatwright twins, Prenshon Dixon, Laconia and the rest of those cats were right behind me.
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1 minute ago, skyway said:
ha! We've been saying these kinds of things since I was at Lakeland! I'm pretty sure he's not going to live and coach forever. But, heck if I know when he'll hang it up!
Right! We were saying that back in the 90's when Lakeland couldn't consistently make the playoffs.
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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:
I was just playing Tenoroc getting knocked out first round by 50
I know man. I don't think anyone expects them to make it out of the first round.
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6 hours ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
The flying L’s Are Talking MAAAAD trash already, being that they won their district the flying L’s will be hoisting my (9-1) Dillard panthers.
as Dillard looks forward to a deep playoff run in unfamiliar territory “AS A WILDCARD TEAM” but aye we ready, LETSSS GOOOO DILLARD. @VeniceIndiansFootball @Jullian @DarterBlue2
I have no dog in this fight. However, I expect the Lying L's to have a quick 1st round seat.
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22 minutes ago, skyway said:
Lakeland has been without Gabe Dindy two months, and they've not had Kheanist Thompson the last two games, either. They'll need those guys to beat Edgewater and probably LG. I have no idea if they'll have them or not.
I wonder how much longer Coach Castle hangs in there? I know he wants one more but I don't think he's willing to pull a Hazel Haley to do it.
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37 minutes ago, Jesse said:
Tenoroc gonna win the state title over lakewood 45-21
I would get the Titans logo tatooed on my forehead if that happened. I'm not worried though, LMAO!
- skyway, DarterBlue2 and KeemD321
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RPI: Did the FHSAA get it right 2021 edition
in The Huddle
Posted
Thank you! The problem with RPI is the formula makes the assumption that every team is equal and on a level playing field and that is a serious flaw. RPI can't validate district strength or SOS and is nothing than statistical speculation or hypothesis at best.