LAZ
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Posts posted by LAZ
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Gotta love NoleBull. My rankings have STA at 13 and Bloomingdale at 15. Must be something wrong with him. I can explain my rankings until I’m chemo’d out but he does not get the concept of Retrodictive Rankings and Schedule Connectivity. It is Interesting though that Joe Pinkos also has Bloomingdale in the Top 20. So that tells me I’m in the ballpark thru this point in the season. Also, for what it’s worth, there are 228 in state games this week and Joe and I have the same selections for 214 of them. More importantly, I’m on the mend and ready for some football and ranking debates.
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Thank you Joshua!
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On 8/18/2018 at 10:12 AM, nolebull813 said:
Florida goes 3-2 in week zero
South Broward 40, Marina,CA 28
Navarre 6, Louisville,MS 14
Aucilla Christian 42, Sherwood Christian,GA 20
Pine Ridge 0, Ware County,GA 62
University Christian 34, Metrolina Christian,NC 16
Not trying to be a smarta$$ honestly, I’m in a hospital bed trying to find out which of these week 0 games count towards the regular season. Thanks to all.
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On 8/13/2018 at 8:16 PM, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:
My understanding is that if a team from FL leaves the state and plays in a state like GA, SC, NC or TN who is playing regular season games this week it counts as regular season for FL team because they are traveling
Has this been verified? Seems like NolesBull has a different take.
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1 hour ago, Hwy17 said:
When one tram is a clear cut favorite, and Joe Pinkos says they should win by 30+, but they only win by 20+, their power ranking goes down. To me 20+ is still loop sided. Tells me the better team just didn't try and run up the score.
That is exactly what I was taking about. There are formulas in place to take care of that issue. In my system, each game has a different value. For example: Miami Central plays Northwestern and let’s say they both have identical 140 power rtgs. The outcome of this game has extreme significance. The game should be a tie. (140-140)/2=0. So 100%-0= 100%. Therefore, the margin of victory is used in full for that game.
However:
If Central has strength value of 140 and Westland Hialeah has a value of 70. Central should win by 70 pts. The game is less significant. The value of the game is (140 -70)/2= 35. So 100%-35%=65%. In this case, you only use 65% of the margin of victory.
This prevents Central from running up the score but does not penalize them for playing their subs. This is simplified but you get the concept.
There are also other factors I use in the formula which put a cap on how much movement can occur. These are the factors I referred to possibly changing in my previous post.
Anyway, there is a lot more involved and I have several macros in use to assist me every week.
Hopefully, this gives you an idea of how the system works.
The most difficulty I have is accurately obtaining ALL the scores every week. There are always 20 or so results that take 2 - 4 days to find and verify. That is the most difficult part of doing the rankings and has almost forced me to quit this turd hunt several times. My son did Tennessee HS Rankings for two years and NOT ONCE was he unable to find a score the next day. It sucks because Tennessee has two time zones as do we. IMO, this is Florida. We have the best football players in the country. There is no acceptable excuse for these scores to not be 100% available, let alone accurate. This is a huge sore spot as you can see.
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6 hours ago, Hwy17 said:
Pinkos awards/penalizes based on margin of victory.
I do as well but with restricted move limits on margins of victory/loss. This is one of the reasons my rankings are slower to adjust than Joe’s right out of the gate. But by the 2nd half of the season, Joe and I are pretty damn close together. My system was designed for college football where there is a lot more schedule connectivity early in the season when teams are playing out of conference and out of division against schools from all across the country. In 2003 I took the same formula and applied it to high school. It definitely works but it takes a while to establish enough connectivity early in the season.This is a problem I’ve been battling for years and in the future I may have to expand the limits on margin of victory, especially over the first few weeks of the year.
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Median ranking for the teams in each district.
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Here is how I rank District Parity from top to bottom. Basically, these are ranked in order of "best chance" for the worst team to beat the best team in each district. In other words, if you want to have a better chance of seeing a nice close game regardless of strength, use this list.
Rk CL * D 1 ) 5A * 2 2 ) 5A * 15 3 ) 8A * 1 4 ) 5A * 6 5 ) 6A * 1 6 ) 5A * 16 7 ) 7A * 15 8 ) 6A * 2 9 ) 7A * 4 10 ) 7A * 3 11 ) 7A * 12 12 ) 6A * 3 13 ) 5A * 1 14 ) 8A * 8 15 ) 8A * 4 16 ) 8A * 2 17 ) 7A * 7 18 ) 7A * 13 19 ) 5A * 5 20 ) 8A * 15 21 ) 7A * 2 22 ) 7A * 16 23 ) 6A * 15 24 ) 8A * 9 25 ) 8A * 12 26 ) 6A * 6 27 ) 7A * 6 28 ) 7A * 1 29 ) 6A * 12 30 ) 8A * 13 31 ) 5A * 7 32 ) 6A * 14 33 ) 7A * 14 34 ) 6A * 9 35 ) 8A * 11 36 ) 8A * 16 37 ) 6A * 13 38 ) 5A * 10 39 ) 5A * 11 40 ) 7A * 5 41 ) 7A * 10 42 ) 5A * 9 43 ) 8A * 6 44 ) 6A * 5 45 ) 8A * 5 46 ) 6A * 11 47 ) 7A * 9 48 ) 7A * 8 49 ) 8A * 7 50 ) 5A * 12 51 ) 5A * 8 52 ) 7A * 11 53 ) 5A * 3 54 ) 6A * 8 55 ) 6A * 16 56 ) 5A * 4 57 ) 6A * 7 58 ) 5A * 14 59 ) 8A * 3 60 ) 6A * 4 61 ) 8A * 10 62 ) 6A * 10 63 ) 8A * 14 64 ) 5A * 13 -
Here is how I rank District Strength from top to bottom:
Rk CL * D 1 ) 6A * 16 2 ) 8A * 4 3 ) 5A * 2 4 ) 6A * 3 5 ) 6A * 1 6 ) 7A * 7 7 ) 5A * 14 8 ) 8A * 16 9 ) 8A * 1 10 ) 7A * 2 11 ) 8A * 14 12 ) 7A * 3 13 ) 5A * 4 14 ) 6A * 2 15 ) 7A * 11 16 ) 5A * 16 17 ) 8A * 3 18 ) 7A * 1 19 ) 8A * 2 20 ) 7A * 10 21 ) 8A * 9 22 ) 7A * 14 23 ) 7A * 9 24 ) 8A * 12 25 ) 6A * 12 26 ) 7A * 12 27 ) 6A * 7 28 ) 5A * 5 29 ) 6A * 4 30 ) 6A * 8 31 ) 8A * 8 32 ) 6A * 15 33 ) 7A * 6 34 ) 5A * 10 35 ) 8A * 5 36 ) 6A * 10 37 ) 5A * 1 38 ) 8A * 7 39 ) 7A * 8 40 ) 6A * 13 41 ) 5A * 6 42 ) 6A * 5 43 ) 5A * 13 44 ) 7A * 4 45 ) 8A * 13 46 ) 7A * 13 47 ) 6A * 11 48 ) 7A * 15 49 ) 5A * 12 50 ) 6A * 6 51 ) 5A * 3 52 ) 6A * 14 53 ) 8A * 6 54 ) 5A * 11 55 ) 8A * 11 56 ) 6A * 9 57 ) 7A * 5 58 ) 5A * 9 59 ) 5A * 15 60 ) 8A * 10 61 ) 5A * 8 62 ) 7A * 16 63 ) 5A * 7 64 ) 8A * 15 -
Darter,
Still on the 2018 Seminole bandwagon I see. Well if they have a great season, I’ll be sure to make it known that you called it back in December. Hope you’re doing well. Sure wish I could join you and Dan this Friday but I have some pressing issues that must be met head on. Talk to you soon.
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51 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:
Here's the problem I see for Lake Mary: they don't match up well against Seminole. Last year, I too, thought they had a chance. And pretty much the same team they will be facing with a year's more experience handled them with ease.
Strange things happen sometimes, but I would be surprised if LM beats Seminole this year.
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Here are my two cents. All ranking systems and polls are flawed whether it be human or computerized. Personally, I actually like MaxPreps except for one major flaw. Forfeits count as the game being played with a final score of 2-0. For example: let’s say #1 Team A is playing # 300 Team Y the last week of the year. It’s a game Team A should win by 7 or 8 touchdowns. However the entire Team A squad catches a big time STD from a cheerleader and has to forfeit. The MaxPreps computer calculates a 2-0 victory for Team Z and adjusts the strength even though the game didn’t actually occur. Obviously, the chances of this happening (not the cheerleader thing) are microscopic but it would really affect the rankings. And there are dozens of forfeits in Florida each and every year.
- Hwy17, Dan in Daytona and badbird
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Thank you!
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3 hours ago, nolebull813 said:
I wanted to create a new thread for the oos games because the other one was really outdated. I know SportsNut has got a lot on his plate so if you want to pin this one instead I will keep it updated with scores all year.
WEEK ZERO - Weekend of Aug. 17
Pine Ridge at Ware County (GA)
University Christian at Metrolina Christian (NC)
Marina (CA) vs. South Broward {in Key West, FL}
Maclay at Georgia Christian (GA)
Louisville (MS) at NavarreWEEK ONE - Weekend of Aug. 24
Dr. Phillips at Lee County (GA)
Brunswick (GA) at Bartram Trail
Regis Jesuit (CO) vs. Barron Collier
Lakewood (CA) at Windermere Prep
Pataula Charter (GA) at Aucilla Christian
Autauga (AL) at North Florida Christian
Gulf Breeze at Pascagoula (MS)
Pomona (CO) vs. Oak Ridge
Monarch (CO) vs. Dixie HollinsFlomaton (AL) vs Jay
Dematha (MD) vs St Thomas Aquinas
WEEK TWO - Weekend of Aug. 31
North Gwinnett (GA) vs Wekiva
Douglas vs St Matthews (Canada)
AHP vs St Joes (NJ)
Mainland vs Bob Jones (AL)
Chaminade vs Muscle Shoals (AL)
Cardinal Gibbons at Milton (GA)
Deerfield Beach at Buford (GA)
Viera at Fort Dorchester (SC)
Dakota Ridge (CO) vs. Hernando
Columbine (CO) vs. Orange City University
Greely West (CO) vs. Coconut Creek
Lincoln at Bainbridge (GA)
Trinity Christian (TX) at Florida A&M
New Hempstead (GA) at Bolles
Ralston Valley (CO) vs. Orlando University
Fairview (CO) vs. Evans
Crestview at St. Martin (MS)
Rocky Bayou Christian at Snook Christian (AL)Flomaton (AL) vs Northview
Georgia Christian (GA) at Munroe.
Pike Liberal Arts (AL) vs Freeport
Archbishop Shaw (LA) at EscambiaWEEK THREE - Weekend of Sept. 7
Westlake (GA) at Deerfield BeachBrentwood Academy (TN) vs ISB
Miami Central at St. John's (DC)
Redondo Union (CA) at East Ridge
Everglades at Thomasville (GA)
Niceville at Clay-Chalkville (AL)
Taravella at Coffee (GA)
North Florida Christian at Valwood (GA)
D'Iberville (MS) at West Florida
Southwest Georgia Academy (GA) at Munroe
Escambia and Archbishop Rummel (LA)Melbourne Central Catholic vs Corinth (MS)
WEEK FOUR - Weekend of Sept. 14
Satellite at Gulf Shores (AL)
Lincoln at Lowndes (GA)
Bishop Moore at Archbishop Spalding (MD)
Holmes County Central (MS) at NicevilleWEEK FIVE - Weekend of Sept. 21
Ace Charter (GA) at Maclay
Snook Christian (AL) at South Walton.West Park vs Bishop Lynch (TX)
ISB vs Permian (TX)
Georgia Christian (GA) at Avant GardeWEEK SIX - Weekend of Sept. 28
Snook Christian (AL) at FreeportMalay vs ACE Charter (GA)
Graceville vs Autauga (AL)
WEEK SEVEN - Weekend of Oct. 5
Pataula Charter (GA) at MunroeWEEK EIGHT - Weekend of Oct. 12
International School of Broward at La Salle (OH)
ACE Charter (GA) at Aucilla ChristianPataula Charter (GA) vs Sneads
Kennedy Catholic (NY) at Out-of-Door AcademyWEEK NINE - Weekend of Oct. 19
Miller County (GA) at Sneads
St. John's Country Day at Georgia Christian (GA)Aucilla vs ACE Charter (GA)
WEEK TEN - Weekend of Oct. 26
Snook Christian (AL) at NorthviewNorthside Methodist (AL) vs Munroe
Alabama Deaf vs Florida Deaf
WEEK ELEVEN - Weekend of Nov. 2
Elba (AL) at Tate
Pataula Charter (GA) at MaclayThompson (AL) vs Crestview
Do you know which of the week 0 games count towards the regular season? I notice that it would mean some of the Fl would be playing 11 games.
Thx
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1 hour ago, ColumbiaHighFan2017class said:
Well I'm sure we will have a post about the rankings at some point lol
We did talk a little bit on it last year but with you on here Maybe we can finally have our curiosity on certain teams rankings answered
Yeah the problem early on is simply explained but remember it is a computer. My formula is based on game/schedule connectivity. Schools play most of their non- district schedule early in the year. Over the years, September evening storms forced early season cancellations of many key games which would aid in providing that connectivity between out of district/out of classification teams. Up until now, cancelled non-district games are seldom made up. I’m hoping the FHSAA “points” system will create the necessity of getting the cancelled games re-played because every game is now important.
With the college rankings, I do not have this issue because out of 4000+ games for 760 teams less only a handful get cancelled and not rescheduled.
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I plan on it. Although one of my biggest detractors hangs out here. It’s not his fault that my system which works so well for college football, struggles with high school early in the season. When I retire from my paying job, I will work on trying to improve that. That said, I’m sure to p*** him off at least a few times this year. Should be fun.
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20 hours ago, Proseteye said:
It's confirmed, by the St. John HC, that they are only fielding a JV team this season. This is the schedule for the JV. Still pretty ambitious.
My thinking is, something similar to what happened in 2012, when they did not have enough players to field a varsity squad and cancelled their season. St. John Lutheran really should be in 1A or independent as they do not currently have the student compliment to compete against schools with a larger student body.
Thanks so much for this info.. I really appreciate it!!
Laz
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I do. Even for my critics. But it won’t include out of state opponents.
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Proseteye,
I did see this and it doesn’t make any sense for the reasons you mentioned. Also, it conflicts with all of their opponents schedules. Kind of looks like a JV schedule. All games on Thursday.
thanks.
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I’m finalizing 2018 FB schedules in preparation for this year’s rankings. However, I don’t see anything coming out of St. John Lutheran. Anyone know what the deal is? I want to get this done ASAP as I will be working from a hospital bed for a few weeks. That aside, I can’t wait to see how torqued Nolefullofbull gets when he sees this year’s “travesty”.
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Let’s face it, the consensus among college football fans is that we want an expansion of the playoff system. Some would even like to see something similar to basketball where all 351 Division 1 programs have a shot at winning a championship. After all it’s only fair, right?
I’ve done some research on this by breaking down Division 1 football going back ten seasons (2008-2017) and from a fan’s perspective, I’ve concluded we should be careful what we wish for. If we look at NCAA Division 1 football, it is structured as follows:
Division 1 (254 teams)
FBS 130 teams (4 team playoff) & FCS 124 teams (24 team playoff)
Most of us know of the great disparity between the FBS and FCS and can agree the talent and depth comparison between the two groups is overwhelmingly in favor of the FBS. Over the past ten seasons the FBS and FCS faced each other 1008 times, with the FBS winning 926 for astounding 0.919 winning percentage. From this data we can conclude the FCS should not be included in an overall Div. 1 playoff format. Most would agree they need to remain separate. This enables us to draw the following conclusion:
The problem fans have lies with the apparent bias within the FBS.
FBS (130 teams)
Power 5 Members 65 teams (4 team playoff)
Non-Power 5 Members 65 teams (left out in the cold)
In attempt to validate the bias I broke down the above 1008 FBS vs FCS contests into groups & ran the numbers which led me to believe the bias may indeed exist. Both groups clearly dominated the FCS.
Power 5 vs. FCS 528-25 (0.949)
Non-Power 5 vs. FCS 401-54 (0.881)
The biggest test was next. Head to head. Power 5 vs. Non Power 5. This will tell the tale and man did it ever. Somewhat surprisingly, the disparity is vast. I was in “Shock & Awe.”
Over the past 10 years (1344 games) the Power 5 is 1086-258 (0.808) against non-Power 5 teams. The dominance is so overwhelming that 95% (62 schools) have less than .500 records vs.The Power 5. In fact 29 of the 65 schools have won less than two games against the Power 5 with 14 teams going winless. Only Boise St, Houston & Cincinnati own winning records. Conversely, 96% (63 Power 5 schools) have winning records vs. the Non-Power 5.
Here are the top 10 in terms of w-l records of non-power 5 vs. Power 5 schools from 2008-2017:
Boise St
15
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9
0.625
Houston
13
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8
0.619
Cinn
27
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20
0.574
Conn
20
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29
0.408
BYU
19
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30
0.388
Navy
13
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21
0.382
So Fla
18
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32
0.360
No Illinois
7
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14
0.333
UCF
8
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17
0.320
Toledo
5
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12
0.294
After studying this I am now convinced that the current playoff system is better than I originally thought. Though we may want to consider a slight expansion, it has become very clear that we have three distinct entities within Division 1. When it comes to The Power 5, The Non-Power 5 and the FCS, NCAA Division 1 football has what boxing has…. A Heavyweight Division, a Cruiserweight division and a Light Heavyweight division. And the Cruiserweights need their own playoff system.
I have team by team data that supports the above for anyone who has questions.
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On 9/12/2017 at 9:51 PM, badbird said:
I think you are correct laz has them listed as independent but they are 2A
Hi everyone. Happy to be here. Been struggling to get make up game results. Wish I was retired and had only football to deal with. But that's the gig. Anyway, I have Broward International (International School of Broward) listed as Independent because that's the Assignment as posted on the FHSAA web site.
Where is LazIndex? You got some 'splainin to do!!!
in The Huddle
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A lot of ranking systems do exactly that. Peter Wolfe formerly part of the BCS equation used to wait until October before publishing his rankings. Even the current college playoff committee doesn’t release their first top 25 poll until several weeks into the season. I could wait but the majority of the feedback I get (other than yours) is that people like to see how the season evolves. We both know that Bloomingdale doesn’t belong where the computer has them but they are off to a tremendous start and it will be interesting to see where they end up.