LAZ

Careful Darter. Next thing you know, Edgewater will have played a "down" Aquinas team. Simply remind him that Edgewater made the Raiders appear to be not themselves. Also, it must be noted Aquinas beat De LaSalle earlier this year and beat them by 10....in California. Yesterday, De LaSalle played National #1 St. John Bosco for the California State Title. Despite losing, De LaSalle scored more points than vs. Bosco than any team this year with the exception of Mater Dei. Just sayin'.

I agree with all of these posts but I'm still trying to determine why we have so many classifications. For example - In 2019, there were 1362 games played between opponents from different classifications. That is nearly 52% of all our in-state games! As most of you know, I have been tracking these interclass games since 2003 but never have we played as many as we did this year. And the number is growing. Five years ago, we played 1091 and I was asking the same question back then. More concerning to me is that the Higher Classed school wins about 55% of the time and only 52% if we remove Independents from the equation. If there is this little difference, why have eight? I have the breakdown which I'll soon be posting, Thanks

Darter, MarkE, Myself and maybe the infamous Peezster from what I hear.

OK. I'm just looking for some feedback. Tell me to "hit the road" or whatever. Here is a comparison of both college and our Fla. high school scoring margins and my opinion of game interest based on those margins. The college data reflects all 4189 FBS, FCS, D2, D3 and NAIA games in 2019, including interdivisional play (FBS vs FCS, etc.) College 4189 Games Score Margin My Interest Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 1188 28% 8-13 pts Good Game 525 13% 14-20 pts Somewhat 668 16% 21-23 pts Blah - So-So 248 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 583 14% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 658 16% 46+ pts Puke 319 8% Florida HS 2636 games Score Margin My Interest Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 527 20% 8-13 pts Good Game 324 12% 14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14% 21-23 pts Blah - So-So 171 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23% 46+ pts Puke 236 9% As you can see, college games decided by 20 points or less is 57% as compared to our schools 46%. This is a huge difference in competitiveness.

So...I guess I'm the only one who feels that 1236 of our 2636 in-state games (47%) are mismatches and not entertaining. Unless of course, you are a parent or school affiliate of the subject combatants. Basically, half of our games are not competitive. Or maybe, this is just my lame attempt at being Nolebullish on Florida high school football. Personally, I love Florida high school football. It would just be nice to see more competitive games. Anyway, there's more to come on this topic after the championships.

I tried to post this earlier but couldn't access it afterward on "The Huddle". Just call me the Ultimate Sausage Fingered Fossil. I've been diving into this topic in attempt to correlate if we have an excess of "game mismatches" created by having too many classifications. I have come up with the data and my own thoughts and I'm interested in hearing from others regarding this topic. Here's what I've looked at: In 2019, Florida high schools played 2636 regular season games amongst one another. The final scoring margins in those games average 23.6 with a median of 21. The questions are: "What is the norm?" From a fan's perspective, do we want to attend games knowing in advance that one team is 3 touchdowns better than their opponent? Digging deeper, I looked at the distribution and found that even though our Florida Game Average Margin and Median number is somewhere between 21-23 points, only 6% of the games fell into this range! Then using this knowledge, I came up with a chart showing Florida Game Competitiveness. As a result, I determined that from my perspective as a fan, there are probably less than 30% of the games that I would really be interested in watching from the standpoint of competitiveness. I expect differences of opinion but I can also tell you, I did the same thing using all levels of college football and the average margins are 4 points closer which is a considerable amount. Score Margin My Perspective # Games Pct. 1-7 pts Great Game 527 0.2003041 8-13 pts Good Game 324 0.1231471 14-20 pts Somewhat 378 0.1436716 21-23 pts Blah - Fla Avg. 171 0.0649943 24 -31 pts Ugly 383 0.1455720 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 0.2345116 46+ pts Puke 236 0.0896997 BREAKDOWN Margin # Games Frequency Cumulative 1 84 0.03187 0.03187 2 43 0.01631 0.04818 3 84 0.03187 0.08005 4 58 0.02200 0.10205 5 47 0.01783 0.11988 6 82 0.03111 0.15099 7 129 0.04894 0.19992 8 77 0.02921 0.22914 9 25 0.00948 0.23862 10 67 0.02542 0.26404 11 45 0.01707 0.28111 12 54 0.02049 0.30159 13 56 0.02124 0.32284 14 90 0.03414 0.35698 15 53 0.02011 0.37709 16 39 0.01480 0.39188 17 40 0.01517 0.40706 18 51 0.01935 0.42640 19 34 0.01290 0.43930 20 71 0.02693 0.46624 21 91 0.03452 0.50076 22 42 0.01593 0.51669 23 38 0.01442 0.53111 24 48 0.01821 0.54932 25 41 0.01555 0.56487 26 43 0.01631 0.58118 27 50 0.01897 0.60015 28 77 0.02921 0.62936 29 46 0.01745 0.64681 30 43 0.01631 0.66313 31 35 0.01328 0.67640 32 39 0.01480 0.69120 33 33 0.01252 0.70372 34 39 0.01480 0.71851 35 105 0.03983 0.75835 36 61 0.02314 0.78149 37 42 0.01593 0.79742 38 43 0.01631 0.81373 39 29 0.01100 0.82473 40 40 0.01517 0.83991 41 56 0.02124 0.86115 42 60 0.02276 0.88392 43 30 0.01138 0.89530 44 21 0.00797 0.90326 45 19 0.00721 0.91047 46 20 0.00759 0.91806 47 18 0.00683 0.92489 48 23 0.00873 0.93361 49 29 0.01100 0.94461 50 18 0.00683 0.95144 51 10 0.00379 0.95524 52 12 0.00455 0.95979 53 10 0.00379 0.96358 54 8 0.00303 0.96662 55 13 0.00493 0.97155 56 16 0.00607 0.97762 57 8 0.00303 0.98065 58 12 0.00455 0.98520 59 3 0.00114 0.98634 60 3 0.00114 0.98748 61 3 0.00114 0.98862 62 8 0.00303 0.99165 63 5 0.00190 0.99355 64 2 0.00076 0.99431 65 1 0.00038 0.99469 66 1 0.00038 0.99507 67 2 0.00076 0.99583 68 1 0.00038 0.99621 69 1 0.00038 0.99659 70 0 0.00000 0.99659 71 1 0.00038 0.99697 72 2 0.00076 0.99772 73 1 0.00038 0.99810 74 1 0.00038 0.99848 75 1 0.00038 0.99886 76 0 0.00000 0.99886 77 1 0.00038 0.99924 78 0 0.00000 0.99924 79 0 0.00000 0.99924 80 0 0.00000 0.99924 81 0 0.00000 0.99924 82 0 0.00000 0.99924 83 0 0.00000 0.99924 84 1 0.00038 0.99962 85 0 0.00000 0.99962 86 0 0.00000 0.99962 87 0 0.00000 0.99962 88 1 0.00038 1.00000

I've been diving into this topic in attempt to correlate if we have an excess of "game mismatches" created by having too many classifications. I have come up with the data and my own thoughts and I'm interested in hearing from others regarding this topic. Here's what I've looked at: In 2019, Florida high schools played 2636 regular season games amongst one another. The final scoring margins in those games average 23.6 with a median of 21. The questions are: "What is the norm?" From a fan's perspective, do we want to attend games knowing in advance that one team is 3 touchdowns better than their opponent? Digging deeper, I looked at the distribution and found that even though our Florida Game Average Margin and Median number is somewhere between 21-23 points, only 6% of the games fell into this range! Then using this knowledge, I came up with a chart showing Florida Game Competitiveness. As a result, I determined that from my perspective as a fan, there are probably less than 30% of the games that I would really be interested in watching from the standpoint of competitiveness. I expect differences of opinion but I can also tell you, I did the same thing using all levels of college football and the average margins are 4 points closer which is a considerable amount. Margin My Perspective Games Pct 1-7 pts Great Game 527 20% 8-13 pts Good Game 324 12% 14-20 pts Somewhat 378 14% 21-23 pts Blah - Fla Avg. 171 6% 24 -31 pts Ugly 383 15% 32 - 45 pts Very Bad 617 23% 46+ pts Puke 236 9% BREAKDOWN Margin # Games Frequency Cumulative 1 84 0.03187 0.03187 2 43 0.01631 0.04818 3 84 0.03187 0.08005 4 58 0.02200 0.10205 5 47 0.01783 0.11988 6 82 0.03111 0.15099 7 129 0.04894 0.19992 8 77 0.02921 0.22914 9 25 0.00948 0.23862 10 67 0.02542 0.26404 11 45 0.01707 0.28111 12 54 0.02049 0.30159 13 56 0.02124 0.32284 14 90 0.03414 0.35698 15 53 0.02011 0.37709 16 39 0.01480 0.39188 17 40 0.01517 0.40706 18 51 0.01935 0.42640 19 34 0.01290 0.43930 20 71 0.02693 0.46624 21 91 0.03452 0.50076 22 42 0.01593 0.51669 23 38 0.01442 0.53111 24 48 0.01821 0.54932 25 41 0.01555 0.56487 26 43 0.01631 0.58118 27 50 0.01897 0.60015 28 77 0.02921 0.62936 29 46 0.01745 0.64681 30 43 0.01631 0.66313 31 35 0.01328 0.67640 32 39 0.01480 0.69120 33 33 0.01252 0.70372 34 39 0.01480 0.71851 35 105 0.03983 0.75835 36 61 0.02314 0.78149 37 42 0.01593 0.79742 38 43 0.01631 0.81373 39 29 0.01100 0.82473 40 40 0.01517 0.83991 41 56 0.02124 0.86115 42 60 0.02276 0.88392 43 30 0.01138 0.89530 44 21 0.00797 0.90326 45 19 0.00721 0.91047 46 20 0.00759 0.91806 47 18 0.00683 0.92489 48 23 0.00873 0.93361 49 29 0.01100 0.94461 50 18 0.00683 0.95144 51 10 0.00379 0.95524 52 12 0.00455 0.95979 53 10 0.00379 0.96358 54 8 0.00303 0.96662 55 13 0.00493 0.97155 56 16 0.00607 0.97762 57 8 0.00303 0.98065 58 12 0.00455 0.98520 59 3 0.00114 0.98634 60 3 0.00114 0.98748 61 3 0.00114 0.98862 62 8 0.00303 0.99165 63 5 0.00190 0.99355 64 2 0.00076 0.99431 65 1 0.00038 0.99469 66 1 0.00038 0.99507 67 2 0.00076 0.99583 68 1 0.00038 0.99621 69 1 0.00038 0.99659 70 0 0.00000 0.99659 71 1 0.00038 0.99697 72 2 0.00076 0.99772 73 1 0.00038 0.99810 74 1 0.00038 0.99848 75 1 0.00038 0.99886 76 0 0.00000 0.99886 77 1 0.00038 0.99924 78 0 0.00000 0.99924 79 0 0.00000 0.99924 80 0 0.00000 0.99924 81 0 0.00000 0.99924 82 0 0.00000 0.99924 83 0 0.00000 0.99924 84 1 0.00038 0.99962 85 0 0.00000 0.99962 86 0 0.00000 0.99962 87 0 0.00000 0.99962 88 1 0.00038 1.00000

Would not surprise me at all if Georgia beats LSU. Dawgs have the best defense in the SEC and can also get the job done with the run game. I’m not an SEC fan at all and this year, the SEC is way down overall compared to the recent past. They have some very good teams but some pretty bad ones as well. I think Utah has a decent shot if they beat Oregon and GA loses. But thus far, my eye test says the SEC should get two teams in. The Top 4 IMO should be OSU, LSU, Clemson and Georgia.

And they’re off!!! Can’t wait for the shenanigans.

As expected, 8A is the only class where no #1 seeds made it to the Final Four.

Looking at the 2019 Playoff Field, here is a mathematical ranking (most to least) of the classes where the most upsets are likely to occur during the course of the tournament. Class 6A Std Dev 8.78 Class 8A Std Dev 9.16 Class 5A Std Dev 9.72 Class 1A Std Dev 11.46 Class 7A Std Dev 11.69 Class 3A Std Dev 14.90 Class 4A Std Dev 15.01 Class 2A Std Dev 15.82 It should also be noted that looking at the first round only, Class 1A may experience the most upsets.

I really like the RPI. It’s the best method the FHSSA has ever used to help determine the “strongest” teams within each classification. There will be detractors and whiners with every selection process (See At-Large teams in the NCAA basketball tournament). But the FHSAA is light years ahead of where they’ve been when it comes to creating a more competitive playoff field. The only other major change that would help ensure we have the absolute best state tournament, would be to shrink the number of classifications but we all know that might take some doing. So from a spectator’s perspective, Kudos FHSAA for taking this important leap.

Gotta love chains! I sent this to a die hard UCF fan last year after their loss to LSU. It shows how using the “chains” you can create a winning scenario and rarely lose an argument as long as both teams have at least one loss. This proves that using chains to find better teams, non scholarship Division 3 Alfred State Pioneers who won 1 game in 2018, could have beaten last year’s UCF squad. III Alfred St beat Anna Maria 30-28 III Anna Maria beat Castleton 31-24 III Castleton beat Fitchburg St 34-13 III Fitchburg St beat MA Dartmouth 32-29 III MA Dartmouth beat Plymouth St 21-16 III Plymouth St beat Framingham St 29-28 III Framingham St beat Endicott 34-13 III Endicott beat Hobart & Smith 27-24 III Hobart & Smith beat Shenandoah 56-48 III Shenandoah beat NC Wesleyan 59-21 III NC Wesleyan beat Thomas More 35-28 III Thomas More beat WI Platteville 35-28 III WI Platteville beat WI Stevens Pt 20-6 III WI Stevens Pt beat WI Oshkosh 27-21 III WI Oshkosh beat Lincoln MO 17-7 II Lincoln MO beat Lane 10-7 II Lane beat Miles 15-14 II Miles beat Albany GA 50-23 II Albany GA beat Catawba 35-21 II Catawba beat Tusculum 55-37 II Tusculum beat Carson-Newman 41-28 II Carson-Newman beat Wingate 31-14 II Wingate beat West Georgia 41-31 II West Georgia beat West Florida 27-7 II West Florida beat North Alabama 24-19 I - FCS North Alabama beat Jackson St 24-7 I - FCS Jackson St beat Florida A&M 18-16 I - FCS Florida A&M beat NC A&T 22-21 I - FCS NC A&T beat East Carolina 28-23 I - FBS East Carolina beat North Carolina 41-19 I - FBS North Carolina beat Pittsburgh 38-35 I - FBS Pittsburgh beat Virginia 23-13 I - FBS Virginia beat South Carolina 28-0 I - FBS South Carolina beat Missouri 37-35 I - FBS Missouri beat Florida 38-17 I - FBS Florida beat LSU 27-19 I - FBS LSU beat UCF 40-32

I see. So you’re saying there’s a conspiracy. Collusion. Monopolizing. I get it. Really.

From a strictly football perspective I agree with you. Wake Forest, Vandy, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Rutgers, etc. were grandfathered in. They belong to the establishment and to the conferences that hold the 81% advantage in head to head competition. You can thank those grandfathered institutions for helping keep the margin at 81%. If those schools were in the G5 it would be more like 90%. But the answer to your statement lies in the revenue those schools generate for their conferences from other sports and other sources. Not just football. Otherwise, we would wouldn’t be having this conversation.