Joe Pinkos' Power Ratings-Week 5 Forecast

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JOE PINKOS’ POWER RATINGS

 

Florida High School Football

 

Forecast Derby

Pinkos posted a 208-47, 81.6% correct forecast record for last week’s games and is 806-230,77.8% for the season.

 

Pinkos’ forecast has topped the Laz Index for accuracy all four weeks of the 2012 season.

 

The Freeman Ratings (appearing at MaxPreps and calpreps.com), which mustered only a 74.4% statewide forecast accuracy record for the first 4 weeks of the 2011 season, will not  begin publishing a Florida high school football forecast until Week 6 of the 2012 season.

 

Pinkos produced the only statewide forecast for Florida high school football which exceeded 80% accuracy for the entire 2011 season, again compiling the most accurate record in both the regular season and playoffs.

 

About the Ratings/Forecast: Joe Pinkos’ Power Ratings are calculated by a formula based on strength of opposition and margin of victory with greater weight given to recent games. The forecasted margin of victory for each game is determined by subtracting the power rating of the lower-rated team from the power rating of its higher-rated opponent.

 

Game forecasts are sorted by classification of favorite and listed alphabetically. The underdog’s classification is noted for inter-classification games.

 

FORECAST FOR WEEK 5

 

Class 8A

Alonso 6 over (7A) Freedom-Tampa

Apopka 45 over (Ind.) Hialeah Miami Lakes

Bloomingdale 21 over (7A) Riverview

Boone 18 over Wekiva

Braddock 3 over Coral Park

Coral Reef 28 over Sunset

Coral Springs 1 over Piper

Deerfield Beach 17 over Douglas

Dr. Krop 40 over (7A) Miami Springs

Dr. Phillips 15 over DeLand

Everglades 1 over Flanagan

Flagler Palm Coast 7 over (5A) Ponte Vedra

Fletcher 24 over (5A) Forrest

Freedom-Orlando 12 over Winter Park

Hialeah 1 over (5A) Norland

John I. Leonard 5 over Palm Beach Gardens

Lake Brantley 32 over (7A) Winter Springs

Lake Mary 28 over (7A) Lake Howell

Lyman 17 over Colonial

Miramar 1 over Cypress Bay

North Miami 29 over Miami High

Palm Beach Central 9 over Wellington

Park Vista 28 over Jupiter

Plant 18 over (7A) Tampa Bay Tech

Sandalwood 19 over (5A) Terry Parker

South Dade 17 over South Miami

South Plantation 15 over Taravella

Spruce Creek 28 over (6A) Deltona

Timber Creek 8 over Olympia

University-Orlando 17 over (7A) Liberty

Western 39 over West Broward

 

Class 7A

Atlantic-Delray Beach 40 over Spanish River

Boyd Anderson 31 over Coral Glades

Buchholz 36 over (5A) Santa Fe

Chamberlain 2 over Newsome

Charlotte 13 over (6A) Fort Myers

Chiles 9 over (6A) Lake Weir

Clearwater 1 over (6A) Dixie Hollins

Countryside 16 over (8A) Palm Harbor University

Durant 4 over (8A) Wharton

Ed White 3 over (8A) Mandarin

Ely 14 over Monarch

First Coast 38 over (4A) West Nassau

Fleming Island 20 over (6A) Orange Park

Fort Pierce Central 4 over (8A) Vero Beach

Gateway 21 over (6A) Eau Gallie

Goleman 5 over (8A) Ferguson

Kissimmee Osceola 20 over East Ridge

Lakeland 22 over (6A) Bartow

Leesburg 6 over St. Cloud

Lemon Bay 1 over (3A) St. Pete Catholic

Lincoln 11 over (5A) Rickards

Manatee 35 over (5A) Southeast

Northeast-Oakland Park 58 over Coconut Creek

Nova 4 over South Broward

Oak Ridge 21 over (8A) Cypress Creek

Oviedo 29 over (8A) Hagerty

Plantation 28 over Cooper City

Port Charlotte 12 over Braden River

Royal Palm Beach 1 over Santaluces

South Lake 4 over (5A) Eustis

St. Petersburg 1 over (6A) Boca Ciega

St. Thomas Aquinas 35 over McArthur

Venice 25 over (5A) Lehigh

William T. Dwyer 35 over West Boca Raton

 

Class 6A

Archbishop McCarthy 1 over (4A) No. Broward Prep

Armwood 32 over Jefferson

Atlantic Coast 38 over Englewood

Bartram Trail 34 over Robert E. Lee

Belen Jesuit 28 over (4A) Doral Academy

Carol City 22 over (8A) North Miami Beach

Columbia 11 over Vanguard

Forest Hill 3 over (4A) Inlet Grove

Fort Walton Beach 14 over (5A) Rutherford

Gainesville 27 over (5A) Eastside

Heritage 20 over (5A) Satellite

Hernando 32 over Central-Brooksville

Hillsborough 62 over Leto

Homestead 27 over (8A) Varela

Island Coast 24 over Ida Baker

Kathleen 18 over (7A) Haines City

Lake Gibson 35 over (5A) Tenoroc

Largo 13 over (8A) East Lake

Mainland 1 over (8A) Sanford Seminole

Melbourne 3 over (8A) Centennial

Miami Central 11 over (8A) Columbus

Milton 13 over Escambia

Mitchell 10 over Sunlake

Mosley 16 over (5A) Bay

Naples 55 over (5A) Golden Gate

Nature Coast 26 over River Ridge

Niceville 10 over Choctawhatchee

Northwestern 18 over (8A) Southridge

Oakleaf 21 over (Ind.) Arlington Country Day

Okeechobee 4 over (7A) Martin County

Pace 26 over Pensacola Washington

Palm Bay 11 over (5A) Astronaut

Palm Beach Lakes 14 over (5A) Suncoast

Pembroke Pine Charter 5 over (5A) Pompano Beach

Pine Forest 39 over Tate

Ridgeview 7 over (5A) Bishop Kenny

Riverdale 26 over Bishop Verot

Seabreeze 22 over (5A) Titusville

Seminole Osceola 18 over (7A) Seminole

Sickles 35 over (7A) Brandon

South Fork 35 over (5A) Jensen Beach

South Fort Myers 63 over North Fort Myers

Springstead 13 over Land O’ Lakes

St. Augustine 44 over Stanton Prep

Stranahan 9 over Hollywood Hills

Strawberry Crest 8 over King

Tarpon Springs 2 over (7A) Northeast-St. Pete

 

Class 5A

American Heritage-Plantation 31 over (6A) Sebring

Baker County 1 over Palatka

Bayshore 21 over Cypress Lake

Bishop Moore 33 over (7A) Harmony

Boynton Beach 1 over (6A) Olympic Heights

Cardinal Gibbons 28 over (6A) Fort Lauderdale

Creekside 7 over (3A) Episcopal

Crystal River 9 over (6A) Citrus

DeSoto 1 over (8A) North Port

Dillard 3 over (8A) Boca Raton

Estero 7 over (6A) Palmetto Ridge

Fivay 1 over Wesley Chapel

Gibbs 7 over Dunedin

Godby 4 over (6A) Crestview

Gulf Breeze 20 over (1A) Northview

Hardee 7 over Mulberry

Immokalee 42 over (7A) Gulf Coast

Jesuit 28 over Spoto

Key West 47 over (Ind.) Keys Gate Charter

Lake Nona 7 over (7A) Lake Minneola

Lake Wales 20 over (7A) George Jenkins

Lakewood 39 over Middleton

Lely 5 over (6A) Barron Collier

Menendez 8 over (6A) Middleburg

Miami Jackson 10 over (7A) Miami Beach

Nease 4 over (2A) Eagle’s View Academy

Palmetto 26 over (6A) Lakewood Ranch

Pasco 37 over Anclote

Ridgewood 14 over Gulf

Robinson 42 over Blake

Rockledge 36 over (7A) Viera

Tavares 31 over Poinciana

Wakulla 34 over (1A) Jefferson County

West Florida Tech 20 over Alma Bryant AL

Zephyrhills 27 over Hudson

 

Class 4A

Avon Park 27 over (Ind.) Hialeah Gardens

Bolles 11 over (5A) North Marion

Booker T. Washington 60 over Edison

Bradford 5 over Umatilla

Clewiston 1 over Booker

Cocoa 3 over (5A) Merritt Island

Cocoa Beach 69 over (7A) Celebration

Dunbar 27 over LaBelle

East Gadsden 4 over Andrew Jackson

Gulliver Prep 7 over Monsignor Pace

Fernandina Beach 17 over (1A) Hilliard

Jones 12 over (8A) West Orange

Keystone Heights 35 over Weeki Wachee

Marianna 23 over (2A) FAMU DRS

Mount Dora 35 over Interlachen

South Sumter 36 over (5A) Dunnellon

Walton 1 over Northview AL

Yulee 25 over (2A) Glades Day

 

Class 3A

American Heritage-Delray 55 over Pahokee

Berkeley Prep 23 over (5A) Lennard

Cardinal Newman 24 over King’s Academy

Chaminade 56 over (4A) Somerset Academy

Clearwater Cent. Catholic 33 over Cardinal Mooney

Florida High 51 over (Ind.) P.K. Yonge

Fort Meade 1 over (7A) Ridge Community

Fort White 12 over (1A) Union County

Lakeland Christian 33 over (4A) Lake Placid

Madison County 37 over Providence

Melbourne C.C. 21 over (2A) Orlando Christian Prep

Pensacola Catholic 5 over (6A) Navarre

Tampa Catholic 14 over (4A) Lake Highland Prep

The First Academy 52 over (Ind.) Potter's House

Trinity Catholic 1 over (7A) Ocala Forest

Trinity Chr.-Jacksonville 16 over (2A) University Chr

Westminster Christian 24 over Archbishop Carroll

 

Class 2A

Admiral Farragut 4 over Carrollwood Day

Bradenton Christian 1 over Canterbury

Calvary-Clearwater 29 over Northside Christian

Champagnat 10 over (3A) Calvary-Ft. Lauderdale

Community School 26 over (Ind.) All Saints’ Acad.

Dade Christian 28 over (Ind.) Westland Hialeah

Evangelical Christian 1 over Out-of-Door Academy

Father Lopez 44 over (Ind.) Duval Charter

First Baptist 8 over St. John Neumann

Foundation Academy 16 over Mount Dora Bible

Highlands Christian 1 over Coral Springs Christian

Indian Rocks Christian 2 over Cambridge

Jupiter Christian 66 over (Ind.) Vanguard School

Lake Mary Prep 30 over (3A) Trinity Prep

Moore Haven 42 over Southwest Florida Christian

North Florida Christian 27 over Florida Air Academy

South Florida HEAT 29 over (Ind.) Princeton Chr.

St. Edward’s 8 over Calvary-Ormond Beach

Summit Christian 18 over (Ind.) Northwest Christian

Trinity Chr.-Deltona 9 over (3A) Holy Trinity Episcpl.

Warner Christian 38 over (6A) Pine Ridge

 

Class 1A

Baldwin 20 over (5A) Paxon

Bell 3 over (3A) Bishop Snyder

Bozeman 22 over Baker

Bronson 14 over (Ind.) Legacy

Chiefland 10 over Crescent City

Chipley 12 over Cottondale

Dixie County 28 over Hamilton County

Freeport 14 over Graceville

Holmes County 32 over Port St. Joe

Jay 5 over South Walton

Lafayette 25 over Sneads

Liberty County 14 over Vernon

Newberry 7 over (7A) West Port

Taylor-Pierson 1 over (Ind.) Harvest Community

The Villages 5 over (6A) Lecanto

Wewahitchka 10 over Franklin County

 

Independent

Agape Christian 1 over (2A) Victory Christian

Boca Raton Christian 52 over Palmer Trinity

Christ’s Church Academy 40 over Cedar Creek Chr.

Imagine School 49 over Marco Island Academy

International Community 18 over Beacon of Hope

Reagan 26 over Mater Academy

Shorecrest Prep 38 over (2A) St. Stephen’s

Solid Rock Christian 13 over Berean Christian

Williston 7 over (1A) Wildwood

 

North Florida Football Conference (NFFC)

Aucilla Christian 26 over St. Francis

Florida Deaf 31 over Indiana Deaf

Maclay 24 over Oak Hall

Munroe Day 14 over (Ind.) Seacoast Christian

St. Johns C. Day 14 over (SSAC) Peniel Baptist

 

Southeastern Football Conference (SFC)

Benjamin 14 over Westminster Academy

Coral Springs Charter 16 over St. Andrew’s

Florida Christian 1 over Coral Shores

John Carroll 18 over Marathon

LaSalle 25 over Ransom Everglades

Miami Country Day 18 over Archbishop Curley

Pine Crest 2 over Pope John Paul II

 

Sunshine State Athletic Conference (SSAC)

Bishop McLaughlin 11 over (2A) Santa Fe Catholic

First Acad.-Leesburg 32 over Seven Rivers Christian

Landmark Christian 50 over Life Christian

Master’s Academy-Oviedo 15 over Ocala Christian

Merritt Island Christian 21 over Master’s Acad.-Vero

Seffner Christian 8 over (Ind.) Windermere Prep