anonimis
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Posts posted by anonimis
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6 hours ago, Joshua Wilson said:
HEY ENOUGH... ALL OF YOU!
Why are you all trashing the SSAA for providing the schools that want an alternative to the FHSAA state series?
A lot of those programs are thankful they don't have to go up against the powerhouse teams where they would stand no chance on a weekly basis.
I support the SSAA for getting more teams playing more games against teams of similar ability. I hope the exodus from the FHSAA encourages some thought to the school and student-athlete experience.
- 181pl, DarterBlue2 and Dr. D
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My guess on the update timing would be to wait for those Monday games to finish and any other issues that might take some time to clean up like getting the scores correct.
- DarterBlue2 and Cat_Scratch
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These championships are like an Ab absurdum argument for getting rid of the FHSAA class state championships.
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13 minutes ago, DarterBlue2 said:
Now that's the million dollar question; for the measures of mean, median and variance are meaningless if the relative strength of the teams is not calculated correctly.
If we are going to continue using the current methodology, which, to me seems flawed, at a minimum, the way in which it is calculated should be disclosed. That's the only way teams on the bubble can double check to see if their elimination/inclusion was even computed accurately regardless of any inherent flaws that the method may have.
What do you think is causing the lines in the scatter plot? It looks like there are 10 lines.
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2 hours ago, Dr. D said:
Your conclusion about size/population is suspect, since the Metro and Suburban cut-offs for population are different. Your conclusion may be valid for these "groups" of schools, but I feel like you would have to run the rating against the individual school's respective enrollment to get a valid assessment of the impact of enrollment? (But I wouldn't be surprised if your conclusion still held true.)
I took the rankings and enrollments from the FHSAA website and merged the two based on school. I dropped any schools that I couldn't easily merge, ex: schools with duplicate names like Atlantic or spelling variation like Senior vs Sr. With the remaining schools there is essentially no correlation between team rating and school population.
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30 minutes ago, Dan in Daytona said:
Don't want to be the class Dummy here, but what exactly is statistically significant with your graphs and charts ? Please in layman terms. Are all classes in a sense similar top to bottom ?
I would conclude that there isn't a significant difference between classes, school population, or rural/suburban /metro split. Splitting teams by the current classes isn't making the class more competitive, since there is more variance within classes than between classes.
- Dan in Daytona and Dr. D
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1 hour ago, PinellasFB said:
Great data. I think it would tell us a more complete story if you also added the median rating for each class. I have a feeling there are a handful of schools really skewing the data at the top.
In the box plots, the line inside the boxes are the medians. The red dotted line is the overall mean. There are a handful of schools at the bottom as well.
The overall skewness of 'rating': 0.04703871518510849.My biggest question right now is why the scatterplot has rows?
CLASS
SIZE
DIVISION
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I scraped the data from the FHSAA site. Results are below. Size refers to the population.
Class Mean Rating SD
0 1M 2.549517 9.117624
1 1R 0.002303 8.189586
2 1S -0.121667 6.661996
3 2M -0.103683 8.155865
4 2S 0.831387 8.520173
5 3M 1.365750 8.045310
6 3S 1.160899 7.985614
7 4M 0.473030 8.157010
8 4S 2.798478 7.440289
- PinellasFB and Dr. D
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On 10/5/2023 at 8:37 PM, Hwy17 said:
Imagine this: Let's say a really good program has been coming close but hasn't won a championship in their respective class yet. Then finally they got the team that just might win it, but by chance the computer ranks then 32 in the state. I for one would find that unfair. Especially if my team was 5a or 4a.
That's why I think the first round losers of the open bracket should get a bye into their respective brackets. Also, the open championship should be at least double elimination with a consolation for 3rd/4th (I'm open to placing to 16, but I don't know if anyone else is).
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http://calpreps.com/ratings.htm
I remember calpreps being used by MaxPreps, but I could be wrong.
Casella and Berger's Statistical Inference is about as far as my math/stats knowledge goes. As a coach, I wouldn't want to have to coach in a system where you are forced to win run up scores because winning by 42 instead of 63 may hurt your rating. Did the FHSAA ever say there was a cap on margin of victory?
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24 minutes ago, h8r said:
thats just a silly statement. 80%+ of high schools schedule is done by head coaches and ADs, some counties like orange force their schools to schedule metro teams 1st, seminole county does it to(i believe). so your handcuffed as a match maker. yearly doormat team A that has won 75 games in 25 years has to play yearly state powerhouse team B that has won 75 games in 7 years......cant blame coach or AD for that, for sure cant blame florida for that.....
h8r
From the 2022 regular season
gametype District Non-District
games 751 2006Games with 70+ point differences
gametype District Non-District
score difference 7 6Games with 60+ point differences
gametype District Non-District
score difference 28 24District games made up about 27.2% of games this season. They were 53.8% of 70+ point games and 53.8% of 60+ point games. I agree, Coaches and ADs do a much better job of scheduling games than the FHSAA. The matchups like the ones forced by Orange County and Seminole County or the FHSAA are causing the majority of issues.
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It's been a fun game to watch. There's about 10 minutes to go. Tie game with Oklahoma driving.
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Is there a state final caliber team that doesn't have a significant number of transfers on the team? Maybe Apopka or Venice? Kids transfer schools all of the time. Plenty of mediocre-bad players on mediocre-bad teams transfer every year.
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1 hour ago, Nulli Secundus said:
Funny, I was working on something similar to this last night but it's only 1 class, 7-8 teams per district for the entire state based solely on geography. I'll post the breakdown later on this evening.
I made this a year ago if it is any help to you.
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2 hours ago, nolebull813 said:
I agree there should be no running clock. You are robbing kids of reps. You are robbing fans of a game they paid for. You are taking away key plays away from backups and 3rd stringers who don’t normally get to play.
If you lose a varsity game by 70, then maybe you shouldn’t be playing varsity football
Stop scheduling games with 70+ point spreads.
Florida needs better matchmaking.
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16 minutes ago, KeemD321 said:
What about for those teama who don't have many teams with similar ability near by?
There's compromise, they travel a little, other's travel to them. They have a few more less competitive matchups than everyone else. Video games go through the same problem with ping instead of travel time. You start with strict requirements for a matchup and loosen them as needed to get a match.
Was there a specific team you had in mind?
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3 hours ago, Floridaatlantic1 said:
The FHSAA won’t do anything that drastic.
I would be all for the top 32 title but that would take away the other 8 and no way that would ever happen. I like big district idea if we keep crappy current system and take half.
I liked old top two district playoff better than stupid mysterious maxprep rankings that move team up 8 spots for losing by 28 and don’t match fhsaa anyway.I don't expect any major changes unless there is widespread unhappiness with the bottom 50% of schools. There is a trend of district games getting more and more noncompetitive. The sub-tournaments could be the current classes.
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21 hours ago, Jambun82 said:
What is your solution then, know-it-all?
Remove classes. District games are matchups between nearby teams of similar ability. There is one official state tournament with the top 32 ranked teams. Host smaller tournaments for teams not in the state tournament.
This creates more competitive matchups all season long, forces teams to work improve, eases travel budgets, etc.
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As long as there are 9 teams claiming a state championship and there are 90 point blowouts in district games, the system is silly. Shuffling the semi-final matchups made the finals closer, which is okay. Overall, I can't support this system because it only stinks slightly less. Now that the season is over, we have to watch STA and Central fight over a MNC, when they never played each other and are 20 miles apart...and Lakeland can beat them both.
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I think the rain will help Apopka, but if there is a long lightning delay it will help Columbus. I don't see Apopka shutting down Columbus' offense. They should be much better than most of the teams Apopka has played. Apopka has won a lot of close games though with 7 games decided by a score or less vs Columbus' 2 games. My model has Columbus at a 57% chance to win.
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STA wins in a blowout. Only way it is close is if it rains.
STA has an 80% chance of winning and it is the biggest mismatch in the finals.
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Keep an eye out for randoms on facebook streaming the game from the stands lol.
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I think Cocoa wins easy, but my model has FSUHS with a 54% chance to win. I think it is off because of the lack of "cross-pollination" in scheduling meaning they beat up on a different and lower quality pool of teams, but the math can't work it out.
Final STA 58 DILLARD 0 a complete embarrassment I’ve never been so disgusted.
in The Huddle
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@nolebull813
Should Dillard be relegated to the SSAA or should they play JV only?