Joe Pinkos' Power Ratings-Week 3 Forecast

[Guest FlFever]

JOE PINKOS’ POWER RATINGS

Florida High School Football

 

Forecast Derby

Joe Pinkos’ forecast progressed toward mid-season form last week, making correct picks for 203 of 256 (79.3%) football games involving Florida high schools. Pinkos’ forecast, which last week included correct selections of Jones over Mainland and Naples over Immokalee, has topped the Laz Index for accuracy in both weeks of the 2012 season.

 

Pinkos produced the only statewide forecast for Florida high school football which exceeded 80% accuracy for the entire 2011 season, again compiling the most accurate record in both the regular season and playoffs.

 

The Freeman Ratings (appearing at MaxPreps and calpreps.com), whom registered only a 74.4% statewide forecast accuracy record for the first 4 weeks of the 2011 Florida high school football season has posted the following statement: “Starting in 2012, we will not project games until October 1st. (We not too proudly admit that it [Freeman Ratings] just doesn’t work as well without much data (scores) to go on for the early season games.)â€

 

About the Ratings/Forecast: Joe Pinkos’ Power Ratings are calculated by a formula based on strength of opposition and margin of victory with greater weight given to recent games. The forecasted margin of victory for each game is determined by subtracting the power rating of the lower-rated team from the power rating of its higher-rated opponent.

 

Game forecasts are sorted by classification of favorite and listed alphabetically. The underdog’s classification is noted for inter-classification games.

 

FORECAST FOR WEEK 3

 

CLASS 8A

Alonso 7 over (6A) King

Boca Raton 7 over Jupiter

Centennial 4 over (6A) Okeechobee

Columbus 23 over Southridge

Coral Springs 26 over (7A) Coconut Creek

Cypress Bay 20 over (7A) South Broward

Dr. Phillips 28 over Wekiva

East Lake 32 over (6A) Tarpon Springs

Everglades 28 over (6A) Hollywood Hills

Flagler Palm Coast 10 over (6A) New Smyrna Beach

Fletcher 24 over (6A) Atlantic Coast

John I. Leonard 28 over Wellington

Killian 41 over (4A) Edison

Lake Mary 18 over Ocoee

Lyman 6 over (7A) Winter Springs

Miami Palmetto 36 over Sunset

Miramar 6 over (7A) Northeast-Oakland Park

Olympia 11 Freedom-Orlando

Palm Beach Central 6 over Palm Beach Gardens

Palm Harbor University 30 over (7A) Seminole

Park Vista 43 over (6A) Palm Beach Lakes

Plant 34 over (6A) Jefferson

Sanford Seminole 18 over (7A) Lake Howell

South Dade 16 over Dr. Krop

Southwest Miami 10 over Miami High

Spruce Creek 20 over (6A) Pine Ridge

Taravella 13 over (7A) Ely

Timber Creek 31 over Hagerty

University-Orange City 12 over (7A) Gateway

Varela 35 over (7A) Goleman

Vero Beach 46 over (5A) Westwood

West Orange 21 over Colonial

Western 16 over Douglas

Wharton 19 over (7A) Chamberlain

Winter Park 4 over Boone

 

Class 7A

American 21 over (8A) Braddock

Atlantic-Delray Beach 34 over (3A) Pahokee

Boyd Anderson 14 over (8A) Deerfield Beach

Brandon 22 over Freedom-Tampa

Charlotte 12 over (8A) Hialeah

Countryside 4 over (6A) Largo

East Bay 9 over (8A) Bloomingdale

East Ridge 14 over (5A) Merritt Island

Ed White 18 over (6A) Wolfson

Evans 14 over (8A) University-Orlando

First Coast 20 over (4A) Andrew Jackson

Fleming Island 37 over (6A) Middleburg

Fort Pierce Central 25 over (6A) Sebastian River

Gaither 17 over Plant City

Lake Minneola 37 over Celebration

Lakeland 22 over (8A) Flanagan

Leesburg 4 over (4A) Mount Dora

Lemon Bay 14 over (4A) LaBelle

Lincoln 13 over (3A) Florida High

Manatee 3 over (6A) Miami Central

Martin County 1 over (6A) Eau Gallie

McArthur 1 over Monarch

Miami Beach 60 over (Ind.) Hialeah Gardens

Northeast-St. Pete 6 over (6A) Boca Ciega

Nova 26 over (6A) Pembroke Pines Charter

Oak Ridge 18 over (8A) East River

Oviedo 1 over (8A) Lake Brantley

Pinellas Park 19 over (6A) Dixie Hollins

Plantation 14 over (5A) Dillard

Port Charlotte 6 over (6A) Ida Baker

Port St. Lucie 1 over (5A) Jensen Beach

Ridge Community 7 over (6A) Kathleen

Riverview 33 over (6A) Leto

Sarasota 11 over (8A) North Port

St. Cloud 1 over (Ind.) Agape Christian

St. Petersburg 8 over (6A) Seminole Osceola

St. Thomas Aquinas 1 over Don Bosco Prep NJ

Steinbrenner 13 over (6A) Strawberry Crest

Venice 24 over (8A) Sarasota Riverview

West Boca Raton 7 over Lake Worth

West Port 16 over (6A) Lake Weir

William T. Dwyer 21 over (8A) Seminole Ridge

 

Class 6A

Archbishop McCarthy 25 over (4A) Somerset Acad.

Armwood 13 over (7A) Tampa Bay Tech

Barron Collier 17 over (5A) East Lee County

Bartram Trail 14 over (5A) Menendez

Bartow 24 over (7A) Lake Region

Bayside 12 over (5A) Astronaut

Belen Jesuit 3 over (4A) Gulliver Prep

Carol City 14 over (5A) Miami Jackson

Choctawhatchee 17 over Pensacola Washington

Citrus 16 over (5A) Belleview

Columbia 19 over (7A) Buchholz

Crestview 1 over (4A) Bolles

Fort Lauderdale 18 over (5A) Pompano Beach

Fort Myers 44 over (5A) Cypress Lake

Gainesville 21 over (3A) Trinity Catholic

Heritage 44 over (7A) Harmony

Hillsborough 19 over (7A) Newsome

Homestead 6 over (8A) Coral Reef

Island Coast 23 over (5A) Mariner

Lake Gibson 24 over (5A) Auburndale

Lakewood Ranch 4 over (5A) Bayshore

Lecanto 8 over Central-Brooksville

Leon 1 over (7A) Chiles

Mainland 6 over (8A) Treasure Coast

Melbourne 3 over (5A) Rockledge

Milton 6 over Fort Walton Beach

Mitchell 26 over (5A) Ridgewood

Mosley 6 over (5A) Arnold

Naples 42 over Bishop Verot

Niceville 1 over Pine Forest

Northwestern 42 over (8A) Coral Gables

Olympic Heights 26 over (7A) Spanish River

Pace 20 over Navarre

Palm Bay 16 over (7A) Kissimmee Osceola

Pensacola 3 over (3A) Pensacola Catholic

Ridgeview 17 over (5A) Palatka

Seabreeze 14 over (8A) DeLand

South Fort Myers 24 over (5A) Lehigh

Springstead 24 over (5A) Anclote

St. Augustine 33 over (5A) Nease

Winter Haven 20 over (7A) George Jenkins

 

Class 5A

Amer. Herit.-Plntn. 17 over (4A) Lk. Highland Prep

Atlantic-Port Orange 42 over (6A) Deltona

Baker County 70 over (Ind.) Duval Charter

Bay 6 over (4A) Walton

Bishop Kenny 24 over (3A) Episcopal

Bishop Moore 9 over (7A) Liberty

Boynton Beach 12 over (6A) Forest Hill

Cardinal Gibbons 34 over (6A) Stranahan

Clay 28 over (6A) Oakleaf

DeSoto 11 over (3A) Frostproof

Dunedin 11 over Blake

Dunnellon 3 over (6A) Nature Coast Tech

Estero 37 over (6A) North Fort Myers

Eustis 38 over (1A) Wildwood

Forrest 6 over (6A) Stanton Prep

Gibbs 10 over Spoto

Godby 25 over (1A) Jefferson County

Hallandale 16 over (8A) South Plantation

Hardee 17 over (6A) Sebring

Immokalee 37 over (6A) Palmetto Ridge

Key West 7 over (8A) West Broward

Lake Nona 7 over (8A) Cypress Creek

Lely 3 over Cape Coral

Middleton 12 over Lennard

Mulberry 17 over (4A) Avon Park

Norland 15 over (8A) North Miami

North Marion 14 over (7A) Ocala Forest

Palmetto 45 over (7A) Braden River

Pasco 46 over (7A) Wiregrass Ranch

Rickards 1 over (4A) East Gadsden

Robinson 6 over Jesuit

Rutherford 3 over (6A) Escambia

Satellite 26 over (7A) Viera

Southeast 41 over (4A) Booker

Suwannee 1 over Santa Fe

Tavares 1 over (1A) The Villages

Tenoroc 28 over Poinciana

Terry Parker 18 over (6A) Robert E. Lee

Wakulla 7 over (2A) North Florida Christian

West Florida Tech 22 over (6A) Tate

 

Class 4A

Booker T. Washington 14 over Cedar Hill TX

Bradford 21 over (1A) Hamilton County

Cocoa 2 over (3A) University School

Cocoa Beach 22 over (5A) Space Coast

Doral Academy 6 over (Ind.) Barrington Christian

Dunbar 7 over (6A) Riverdale

Interlachen 4 over (1A) Hawthorne

Inlet Grove 7 over (2A) Jupiter Christian

Jones 16 over (5A) Eastside

Marianna 3 over (1A) Liberty County

North Broward Prep 29 over (3A) Archbishop Carroll

Raines 18 over (8A) Mandarin

Ribault 21 over (5A) Paxon

South Sumter 20 over (6A) Hernando

Taylor County 10 over (3A) Fort White

Umatilla 11 over (1A) Taylor-Pierson

West Nassau 17 over (Ind.) Williston

Yulee 10 over (7A) South Lake

 

Class 3A

American Herit.-Delray 28 over (5A) Glades Central

Berkeley Prep 21 over (5A) Golden Gate

Calvary-Fort Lauderdale 16 over (Ind.) Mater Acad.

Cardinal Mooney 25 over (4A) Lake Placid

Cardinal Newman 31 over (5A) Suncoast

Chaminade 13 over Westminster Christian

Clearwater Central Catholic 56 over (5A) Hudson

Fort Meade 12 over (7A) Haines City

Holy Trinity Episcpl. 42 over (SSAC) Master’s-Vero

Lakeland Christian 30 over (2A) Evangelical Chr.

Madison County 22 (7A) Edgewater

Melbourne C.C. 52 over (Ind.) Montverde Acad.

Orangewood Christian 20 over (2A) St. Joseph

Providence 1 over (5A) Creekside

Tampa Catholic 6 over St. Pete Catholic

Trinity Chr.-Jacksonville 6 over (8A) Sandalwood

 

Class 2A

Admiral Farragut 26 over Canterbury

Calvary-Clearwater 14 over (Ind.) Shorecrest Prep

Cambridge 15 over Bradenton Christian

Carrollwood Day 42 over Northside Christian

Community School 9 over St. John Neumann

Coral Springs Christian 1 over (Ind.) Solid Rock Chr.

Dade Christian 7 over Champagnat Catholic

Eagle’s View Acad. 8 over (4A) Fernandina Beach

Father Lopez 10 over (Ind.) Windermere Prep

FAMU DRS 4 over (1A) West Gadsden

First Baptist 73 over (Ind.) Imagine School

Foundation Academy 6 over Lake Mary Prep

Glades Day 7 over (4A) Clewiston

Indian Rocks Christian 10 over Keswick Christian

Mount Dora Bible 8 over (NFFC) John Paul II Cath.

Orlando Christian Prep 12 over Santa Fe Catholic

Out-of-Door Academy 3 over Moore Haven

Southwest Florida Christian 25 over St. Stephen’s

Trinity Chr.-Deltona 27 over Calvary-Ormond Bch.

University Christian 15 over (5A) Matanzas

Victory Christian 8 over Florida Air Academy

Village Academy 20 over Highlands Christian

Warner Christian 39 over St. Edward’s

 

Class 1A

Baldwin 13 over (6A) Englewood

Bell 1 over (2A) St. John Lutheran

Blountstown 6 over Freeport

Bozeman 12 over Vernon

Branford 39 over (Ind.) Temple Christian Academy

Bronson 50 over (SSAC) Seven Rivers Christian

Chiefland 14 over Hilliard

Cottondale 22 over Franklin County

Crescent City 10 over (3A) Trinity Prep

Dixie County 18 over Lafayette

Holmes County 14 over Baker

Newberry 41 over (Ind.) P.K. Yonge

Northview 12 over Chipley

Sneads 11 over Jay

Trenton 46 over (3A) Bishop Snyder

Union County 17 over (4A) Keystone Heights

Wewahitchka 11 over (NFFC) Munroe Day

 

Independent

All Saints’ Academy 6 over Vanguard School

Berean Christian 3 over (2A) South Florida HEAT

Boca Raton Christian 2 over Hillel Community Day

Christ’s Church 33 over (NFFC) Rocky Bayou Chr.

Harvest Community 16 over Cedar Creek Christian

Keys Gate Charter 7 over Gateway Charter

Legacy 10 over Seacoast Christian

Mourning 3 over (8A) Ferguson

Northwest Christian 25 over Zion Lutheran

Palmer Trinity 19 over Posnack Hebrew Day

Reagan 38 over Hialeah-Miami Lakes

Westland Hialeah 3 over (8A) Coral Park

 

North Florida Football Conference (NFFC)

St. Francis 1 over Florida Deaf

St. Johns Country Day 7 over (Ind.) Beacon of Hope

 

Southeastern Football Conference (SFC)

Benjamin 8 over Pope John Paul II

Coral Shores 4 over Ransom Everglades

Coral Springs Charter 13 over John Carroll

Florida Christian 6 over LaSalle

Marathon 8 over Miami Country Day

Pine Crest 17 over Westminster Academy

St. Andrew’s 25 over Archbishop Curley

 

Sunshine State Athletic Conference (SSAC)

Bishop McLaughlin 12 over Life Christian

Central Florida Christian 7 over Ocala Christian

Landmark Christian 42 over Merritt Island Christian

Master’s Acad.-Oviedo 6 over First Acad.-Leesburg

Peniel Baptist 1 over Cornerstone Charter