Class 3A, Midseason Review

[SPCjessica2004]

This is going to be a long post since I'm going to do a regional review of Class 3A.  It will probably be broken up into 2 posts.

First, old business- here's meh Class 3A Top 10 going into week 6. Throw out the old rankings: We re-evaluated each team based on their individual merits, compared key wins and losses and also looked at overall strength of schedule. In other words, just because a team is undefeated doesn't mean they're a top ranked team, or just because a team has 2 losses doesn't mean they're out of the top. We also compared injuries and added a small pinch of looking at the forthcoming schedule.

#1) Clearwater Central Catholic (6-0)
#2) Chaminade-Madonna (4-2)
#3) American Heritage Delray (5-0)
#4) King's Academy  (6-0)
#5) Florida High School (5-1)
#6) Sarasota Cardinal Mooney (5-0)
#7) Benjamin School (6-0)
#8) Baldwin (5-0)
#9) Tampa Berkeley Prep (3-2)
#10) Orlando First Academy (5-0)

REGION 1:
At the start of the season many (myself included) felt that Florida High School would be the favorite to represent the north of Class 3A. Little has happened to change anybodies mind; however, Baldwin is playing at a very high level right now and will be a significant challenge for the Seminoles.  Florida High is still the most complete team in the region. Ft. White, despite being bitten by the injury bug- is still playing quality football and can make some noise with a win over Dixie County in coming weeks.  St. Joseph Academy is currently sitting at 6-0, but haven't played a quality team, still- this is a remarkable improvement.

Don't sleep on Pensacola Catholic who is sitting at 3-3 but has played a competitive schedule thus far.   I think Florida High and Baldwin are on a collision course in the Regional Finals, but there will be some excellent games in the first 2 rounds as well.

REGION 2:
No region was more impacted by Oxbridge Academy disbanding football than Region 2. Three teams sit atop the region heads and shoulders above everybody else. Orlando First Academy, Cardinal Newman and West Palm Beach King's Academy. Both King's and Orlando TFA are 6-0 and Newman is right behind them at 5-1. Of all the teams, Newman has played the toughest schedule and will probably end up playing the toughest schedule (Glades Central, Pahokee).   King's has a rivalry game against Benjamin remaining down the road. Orlando TFA plays a good Trinity Catholic team.

Melbourne Central Catholic could play spoiler, but their body of work hasn't shown it yet. They have 2 blowout losses on the books including a merciless 41-0 loss to Tampa Catholic at home.

I'm going with Orlando First Academy and Cardinal Newman meeting in the regional finals.

REGION 3:
This used to be one of the most competitive regions not just in 3A, but in the entire state; however, in recent years it's become CCC and everybody else and 2018 is no different.  CCC is 6-0 and that's with their best  offensive player only taking 2 snaps all year at running back and their top linebacker missing significant time, both players should return in the coming weeks.  Berkeley Prep overcame the early season loss of QB Joshua Youngblood who broke his hand after a week 1 loss to CCC.  Tampa Catholic, which is arguably the most talented team in the region has faltered. They've now lost 2 games, CCC and Berekley Prep and still have a huge rivalry game vs Jesuit on tap.

Cardinal Mooney has quietly caught fire and is anticipated to be undefeated going into a week 10 game vs CCC if they can overcome a good Bradenton Southeast team this week.  Calvary Christian, who many felt would finally break through under the leadership of Reggie Crume is sitting at 3-3 and haven't looked good in any of those 3 losses outside of the 2nd half of their 49-28 loss to Orlando TFA.   Lakeland Christian could make noise, but will need to do so without their starting QB who is out for the season.  

Trinity Catholic is sitting at 3-2 and could be a dark horse if they can get their offense on track, a win over Orlando TFA could get them going. St. Pete Catholic is sitting at 2-3, but a 4 win season is achievable which would be a good showing for the Barons.

I have no doubt that CCC will host the regional finals even if they slip up and drop a game (as long as it's not to Cardinal Mooney), but who will their dance partner be? You can make cases for Berkeley Prep, Tampa Catholic and Cardinal Mooney.  I think Berkeley Prep gets the nod right now.

REGION 4:
To say Chaminade-Madonna is the favorite would be an understatement. They are the best coached team, have the best athletes and have played the toughest schedule. Last year, they bulldozed class 3A until the state finals.  This year, there will be challengers to the Lions throne. American Heritage Delray is playing at a very high level as is Benjamin School. Westminster Christian is sitting at 6-0 as well.  The question is, can any of these teams compete with a healthy Chaminade team? That remains to be seen. 

While all eyes are on C-M and AHD, there are some quality teams in region 4. Westminster Christian is 6-0, Palmer Trinity is 5-0.  These teams  can't realistically compete with the top ranked regional teams, but it does show there's good football being played.

C-M and AHD are on a collision course for the regional finals. The only question is where the game will be played.

BIG GAME OF THE WEEK

American Heritage Delray vs University School

This is a biggie! Both teams are undefeated. Uschool is ranked #1 in class 4A, AHD is ranked #2 in 2A. There's a lot on the line for both teams, particularly for playoff positioning. Uschool was hit by controversy this week when their offensive coordinator resigned. I happen to think the AHD defensive coaches are top notch and they have the tools in the secondary to contain the Uschool passing attack. The question will come down to slowing down Uschool RB Kenny Mcintosh. 

I don't think there's much advantage across the lines, they seem to match-up pretty well although Uschool is a bit deeper. That means this comes down to a coaching chess match.

THE PICK:   Prior to this week, I would have picked Uschool by 17, but with the latest controversy and the belief that Uschool is going to get AHD's best effort I can see this game being tight.  AHD has the weapons to score in bunches, but I think Mcintosh gets a few key runs in the 4th to provide seperation.  Uschool 35, AHD 21.

Ocala Trinity Catholic vs Orlando First Academy

First Academy is undefeated and their offense is scoring points in bunches behind RB Rolous Frazier. Ocala Trinity Catholic started the season strong and continues to exceed expectations at 4-2. The defense is playing at a high level but the offense needs to help the defense out a bit. Still, QB King Redd has done an admirable job guiding OTC to 4 wins thus far.

 

THE PICK: I'm going TFA 42-28. 

OTHER GAMES:
Berkeley Prep over Miami Edison by 7
Tampa Catholic over Steinbrenner by 28
Land O Lakes over Lakeland Christian by 10
Baldwin over Westside by 42
CCC over FAMU DRS by 28
St. Pete Catholic over Northside by 10
Cardinal Mooney over Southeast by 3
Madison County over Pensacola Catholic by 21
King's Academy over Pine Crest by 35
Bishop Moore over MCC by 21
Benjamin over John Carroll by 24
Florida High over NFC by 17
Ft. White over Providence by 21
Jefferson County over Taylor County by 10






 

[SPCjessica2004]

Also, because it was asked of me last week in a direct message- here is my projection for Chaminade-Madonna's power point total based on what I feel the teams on their schedule will finish their season at. Thus, assuming Chaminade finishes the season 8-2.. here is their projection:

Chaminade-Madonna

Deerfield                   38 (Cat 1 Loss)     10-0
Muscle Shoals         45 (Cat 2 Win)         7-3
Ely                              38 (Cat 4 Win)          2-8
Northeast                 35 (Cat 4 Win)         0-10
Heritage-Plantation 38 (Cat 1 Loss)      9-1
Piper                           48 (Cat 2 Win)         6-4
Booker T.                   43 (Cat 3 Win)         5-5
Flanagan                    38 (Cat 4 Win)         2-7
Doral                          53 (Cat 1 Win)          9-1
U. School                   53 (Cat 1 Win)         9-1

-----------------------------
Total       429/10 = 42.9

There is a growing amount of people that feel that Chaminade could drop the game against Uschool. In that event they would finish with 414 points for an average of 41.4.

Keep in mind, this is just a projection that was requested.