Jesse

Welcome back

Fleming from madison got this 200 yards on AHP. 

AHP vs Lowndes. It will be one of the few regular season games that week. 

Over 4 transfers? Hell that would be like 300-400 teams in Florida every year 
 
I would have said anyone over 10 total or anyone who gets more than 5 players rated 3* or better through the composite rankings 

There are just too many "suburban" places where super teams are possible, which makes it impossible to legislate the parity you want. The Pensacola, Bradenton/Sarasota, Brevard and Polk county areas all have the potential for "super" teams that most from any county couldn't compete with. Pine Forest, Bradenton Southeast, Manatee, Sarasota Riverview, Venice, Lakeland have all had nationally elite teams in my lifetime. PF and Lakeland both have national championships following blow-out wins in state title games. Venice blew out "metro" teams in both the state semis and finals just last year. Any of these programs could raid all the other local schools and build a team untouchable in their class (and it looks like one has done just that for 2022.) 
The real difference is between programs who are able to build super rosters and those who can't. It's mostly the rural schools that can't do this.
Fun fact: if IMG ever was approved to play for FHSAA titles, they'd be "suburban". 

The top teams in 2S in the north are West Florida, Florida High, Godby, Wakulla, Baker County, North Marion traditionally. But I don't think those teams are on Cocoa's level currently. 

I bet Cocoa shocks STA on ESPN... could be the upset of the year considering how strong Cocoa’s defense is going to be. Only lost one DB and Virgil Marshall. I remember they called him “Swipe” because of how fast he was, almost running the route better than a receiver and swatting the ball away or getting the INT. Plus, Ryan Schneider was the OC at STA for a few years;  he probably knows a few things about STA that will help them when the time comes to plan for them. 
Going to be an awesome, low-scoring slugfest of a showdown between the Tigers and Raiders week 3. 

Maybe not, but special consideration is in order for a smaller Nationally ranked 1996 Jacksonville Bolles (14-0), who's starting QB broke his ankle on their first series. They lost 14-13 to Bartow (14-1). Also 2003's 2A state champ Hollywood CHaminade (13-1) with victories over 5A state champ Daytona Mainland, and an excellent 27-0 victory over Madison. County. A 3pt loss to 5A semi-finalist Miami Edison (32-29) being their only slip-up. Finally, a Shout out to the 2009 2A Cocoa Tigers (14-0) upset shocker of national ranked Glades Central (13-0). These three small school winners were easily Top 3 in the state in those years. IMO, Chaminade was the best team in the state in 2003.  

There is no distinction of rural 1A teams and the smallest suburban teams. 
 
I’m sure Baker, Blountstown and Madison County could handle the onslaught of Maclay, Aucilla Christian and Moore Haven 

And I agree that 1A in general is a train wreck, it was a concept that could have been good but it has been formated horribly
 
How I would fix it is set the overall class at 32 smallest teams with rural designation
 
2 regions of 16 
 
8 teams per region make playoffs 
 
 
 
Simple we go from regions of 2/3 making playoffs to 1/2 which would at least add some respect to the 1A postseason

We had 2 RBs who got the primary of the carries last year 
 
One graduated and one returns, Tony Fulton looks like a solid RB for what we need him for, the issue he had is our OL last year was very much sub average with run blocking and left him unable to get some momentum built up for much of the season to get running
 
Marcus Peterson graduating is a significant weapon lost to graduation but Tray Tolliver if he can come back healthy is one of the fastest WRs I've seen in person and probably the fastest I've seen at Columbia since 2015, he's also a 3* who now has one of the best QBs in North Florida throwing to him, that could end up being another Jordan Smith to Marquez Bell type connection which Columbia really hasn't had the last 2 seasons 
 
I've been trying to find out more about the other WRs, I know I saw we have a 6'4 freshman at WR but I want to see him in action in a game before I go into more detail but the stuff I've seen from practice highlights look good so far, if he can do it in a game I see him having a early impact at Columbia
 
The defense though was the biggest reason I have confidence in this Columbia team which as I already have explained is led by 4* LB/S Jaden Robinson and 4* CB Amare Ferrell who both play like game changers as well as rising junior Jerome Carter II who already has an Iowa State offer (his dad Jerome Carter was a 5* coming out of high school and signed with FSU) 
 
The defense looked very good when I saw them against Bartram Trail, I've never seen the defense look that good so early in the off-season, normally they don't look like that until a few weeks into the season 

Buchholz has only one win over Columbia since 2008 so which recent history favors Buchholz especially when last game they played at citizens was 39-0 Columbia 
 
You should come and check this matchup out, it will be a Thursday game at citizens on week 1 

So Columbia is district champs going undefeated, additionally beating UC, GC, and MC (trying not to use the full name), but losing to Buchholz, Trinity, and Deland, so my prediction (based on nothing other than names and recent history) has Columbia going 6-3 (maybe 7-3). That is probably good enough for a #2 or #3 seed in the region. 

I know Columbia has been trying to get Wakulla for over a week but I haven't heard it finalized so I'm guessing Wakulla isn't interested which is surprising because I always thought that was a program willing to step up 

Madison County and DeLand

2 hours early but decided to go ahead and add North Central Florida tiers on the board 
 
Same rules as tiers apply 
 
 
North Central
 
Tier 1
 
Columbia
Buchholz

 
Tier 2
 
Vanguard
Baker County
Hawthorne
Union County
Chiefland

 
Tier 3
 
Bradford
North Marion
Dunnellon
Gainesville
Trinity Catholic


 
            Tier 4
 
Suwannee
Fort White
Ocala Forest
West Port
Trenton
Newberry
 

Surprise double Tuesday, here's the northeast Florida tiers as well 
 
Northeast Florida

Tier 1
Trinity Christian
Bolles
 
Tier 2
Mainland
St Augustine
Nease
Ed White
 

Tier 3
Bartram Trail
Fleming Island
Sandalwood 
Middleburg
University Christian
Creekside
Deland
 

Tier 4
Yulee
Ribault
Terry Parker
Flagler Palm Coast
Oakleaf
Raines
Fletcher
Clay
 

Tier 5
Atlantic Coast
Terry Parker
Riverside
Andrew Jackson
Englewood
Ponte Vedra
Hilliard
West Nassau
Menendez
Keystone Heights
 

I would have Trinity Catholic ahead of Columbo. 
 
let me fix it for you 
Tier 1 
Baker County, Vanguard and Buchholz
 
Tier 2 
OTC, Columbia, Dunnellon, North Marion
 
Tier 3 
Union Co, Gainesville, Chiefland, Bradford, Hawthorne
Tier 4 
Who gives a shit 

Lmao so you noticed too

Until Dillard does something you have no room to talk. Central has 8 state titles, been to states three years in a row, beat some of the best in Florida and has a 8-7 out of state record. Central doesn't have a national title but compared to Dillard and anyone else in the state of Florida Central has done well for themselves. I'm not taking anything from Dillard and shoot Dillard might surprise everyone this upcoming season but I feel as if you're bashing Central and it's not right.

I did feel like Mosely having a solid season was impressive but with all do respect to them I was never sold on them when they were rated as the #1 seed in 6A 1 and felt their schedule was average and overinflating them which is why I wasn't as surprised when they lost to a Gadsden County team which had the opposite issue of being a solid team that scheduled way above their heads and once I saw them take niceville to OT I felt they could beat Mosely 
 
I will keep an eye on them as the season progresses but I think it would have helped if they were to play a pine forest or niceville so I could judge them against the tier 1 teams of the panhandle
 
.........
 
Lincoln will be interesting to keep an eye on, I do see they have a 5* LB and I look forward to seeing how that Lincoln vs Dillard game goes as it should tell us where Lincoln is at on a state level 
 
I do think niceville and pine forest could go deep and I'm glad they playing this year but I wouldn't lock either in as regional champs yet as 4S and 3S is deep on the north end 
 
........
 
West Florida and Wakulla should be 2 key teams to watch in 2S and interesting note with NFC I'll keep them in mind with my 1S rankings 
 
And Madison County is usually a solid program but I'm curious to see how they handle the coaching change and I think outside of Hawthorne and maybe Union I don't see anyone really close to Madison in 1R 
 
 
Thanks for the response, I'll have North Central tiers out tomorrow 

Great job!  Agree that Niceville and Pine Forest are the favorites in the panhandle 4S and 3S classifications, respectively.  Their matchup on October 7 could determine the top team in the panhandle.  Think you may be undervaluing Coach Whiddon's Mosely team a little in 4S, coming off an 11-2 season and beating Lincoln twice.  Lincoln had significant losses to graduation, but should be a contender in 3S; they have a tough schedule, highlighted by October 28 game with DIllard.  Panhandle 2S is most wide open, but would expect a steady Wakulla team and West Florida to battle it out, especially with Coach Lees back at West Florida.  In panhandle 1S, North Florida Christian has added some transfers at the skill positions, and don't overlook an up-and-coming Munroe squad.  And in the Rural classification, is anyone ready to bet against Madison County?  Thanks again for your efforts, and good luck with the rest of your state rankings. 

Starting tomorrow I'm gonna release a regional Tier each day to give a sneak peak to my statewide rankings which will come in early August
 
As a note in advance these are not in any specific order and are instead split into general ranges of teams and how close I see each team, I won't release a SPECIFIC order until the state rankings in August and these are subject to change

Panhandle
 
 
Tier 1
Pine Forest
Niceville
 
 
Tier 2
Tallahassee Lincoln
Tallahassee Rickards
Escambia
Navarre
 
 
Tier 3
 
Madison County
West Florida
Wakulla
Florida High
Gadsden County
Mosely
Pensacola Catholic
 
 
Tier 4
 
North Florida Christian
Milton
Pace
Pensacola Washington
Godby
Baker 
Vernon

I'll start with the panhandle region which I'll have 19 total teams broken into 4 tiers