Defense Analysis of 6A-8A Teams Playing Tonight

[OldSchoolLion]

Below are the average points per game allowed this season by each of the 6A, 7A and 8A teams still alive in the playoffs.  It's skewed for Miami Central because they have played so few games.  What does the data mean?

 

Well, teams that allow on average more than 14 points per game don't typically win state titles.  That's a fact supported by data over the years.  The data doesn't work the other way.  In other words, the data does not necessarily support that the team with the least points allowed will do better. 

 

For instance, Mitchell has a great average, but that may be due to a very week schedule.  One might ask, "What if a team had a super tough schedule and that drives their average up?"  It doesn't seem to matter.  Many state champions of the past, especially in recent years, have played brutal schedules, yet still do not typically allow more than 14 points per game, on average.  Let's see if any of the teams with higher points allowed averages get exposed tonight on defense.

 

Update:Bolded teams below lost on 12/4.

 

8A

Apopka-10

Miami Palmetto-10

Seminole-10

Osceola-12

Vero Beach-12

Newsome-17

Bartram Trail-20

Lake Mary-20

 

7A

Mitchell-8

Bloomingdale-12

St Thomas Aquinas-12

Fleming Island-13

Niceville-13

Venice-17

Edgewater-20

Tampa Bay Tech-22

 

6A

Gaither-5

Lake Minneola-7

Dunbar-11

Lake Gibson-11

Palmetto-17

St Augustine-18

Miami Central-19 (has only played 3 games on the field)

Columbia-22

[DarterBlue2]

14 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Below are the average points per game allowed this season by each of the 6A, 7A and 8A teams still alive in the playoffs.  It's skewed for Miami Central because they have played so few games.  What does the data mean?

 

Well, teams that allow on average more than 14 points per game don't typically win state titles.  That's a fact supported by data over the years.  The data doesn't work the other way.  In other words, the data does not necessarily support that the team with the least points allowed will do better. 

 

For instance, Mitchell has a great average, but that may be due to a very week schedule.  One might ask, "What if a team had a super tough schedule and that drives their average up?"  It doesn't seem to matter.  Many state champions of the past, especially in recent years, have played brutal schedules, yet still do not typically allow more than 14 points per game, on average.  Let's see if any of the teams with higher points allowed averages get exposed tonight on defense.

 

8A

Apopka-10

Miami Palmetto-10

Seminole-10

Osceola-12

Vero Beach-12

Newsome-17

Bartram Trail-20

Lake Mary-20

 

7A

Mitchell-8

Bloomingdale-12

St Thomas Aquinas-12

Fleming Island-13

Niceville-13

Venice-17

Edgewater-20

Tampa Bay Tech-22

 

6A

Gaither-5

Lake Minneola-7

Dunbar-11

Lake Gibson-11

Palmetto-17

St Augustine-18

Miami Central-19 (has only played 3 games on the field)

Columbia-22

Of the twelve teams left, only: Edgewater, Central, Palmetto and St. Augustine remain from the teams that have given up 14 or more. Of those four, Central has only played four games now, and Edgewater has a huge loss to IMG which skews their average. So, it seems that the trend you noted is playing out as expected. 

[OldSchoolLion]

Bartram Trail, Tampa Bay Tech and Columbia all averaged 20 or more points allowed this season-to-date and allowed 35 or more points last night.  Hard to make the Final 4 with those kind of numbers. 

Since 2000, Bartram Trail has lost 14 playoff games in which the opposing team scored 27 or more points. 

Since 2000, Columbia has lost 12 playoff games in which the opposing team scored 27 or more points.

Since 2000, Tampa Bay Tech has lost 11 playoff games in which the opposing team scored 34 or more points. 

All three of these teams average between 24-29 points scored per playoff game(2000-2019).  What's been holding them back, to some extent, is defensive performance in the big games.

[DarterBlue2]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Bartram Trail, Tampa Bay Tech and Columbia all averaged 20 or more points allowed this season-to-date and allowed 35 or more points last night.  Hard to make the Final 4 with those kind of numbers. 

Since 2000, Bartram Trail has lost 14 playoff games in which the opposing team scored 27 or more points. 

Since 2000, Columbia has lost 12 playoff games in which the opposing team scored 27 or more points.

Since 2000, Tampa Bay Tech has lost 11 playoff games in which the opposing team scored 34 or more points. 

All three of these teams average between 24-29 points scored per playoff game(2000-2019).  What's been holding them back, to some extent, is defensive performance in the big games.

One exception to the solid, stingy defense statistics, is 2012 Apopka which came into the finals giving up about 17 points per game. But in the final it was again the offense that got them through as they won that one with a record 53-50 score and there was about 1200 yards of total offense in the game with Cypress Bay. 

[OldSchoolLion]

Just now, DarterBlue2 said:

One exception to the solid, stingy defense statistics, is 2012 Apopka which came into the finals giving up about 17 points per game. But in the final it was again the offense that got them through as they won that one with a record 53-50 score and there was about 1200 yards of total offense in the game with Cypress Bay. 

Apopka is an outlier on multiple fronts, ie winning state titles with more losses than most.

[DarterBlue2]

4 minutes ago, OldSchoolLion said:

Apopka is an outlier on multiple fronts, ie winning state titles with more losses than most.

In that sense, they are a little bit like some of the south Florida teams that will start the season slow and hit peak in October through the playoffs. Last year, if you had seen them through game 5, you would have said no way they go more than two rounds in the playoffs unless they get an exceptionally weak draw. And yet they came within seconds of winning the state title when all the smoke cleared.