DarterBlue2
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Posts posted by DarterBlue2
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31 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch2 said:
Just my 2 cents. The Venice team I watched play Cocoa should be in the semis at the very least... They are a good program. I do know that the competition is tough in that class though. Lots of "what ifs" are going to happen along the path to the playoffs. I honestly think Venice could win 4S if they can keep the penalties to a minimum. They have the horses on both sides of the ball.
I agree with you. Not a shoo in, but certainly a strong contender if they make the playoffs.
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22 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:
Yes, a team that is head and shoulders above all others will manage to win whether at home or on the road. If the difference isn't as pronounced, home field advantage makes a difference. That's fine (assuming the team with the advantage has done something to deserve it over the others). I think it's generally silly to think home field advantage doesn't make any difference.
This year's Lakeland team isn't as good as last year's team. If they happen to be the best in 4S, it's by a small margin. Small enough that playing on the road-particularly when perceived as the favorite like they will be- figures to make the difference. My hunch is that losing the two games-albeit against excellent teams- may have altered the team's psyche. Hope I'm wrong.
My point was that through the regular season, Apopka did not play like a team that was the best in 8A. Yes, one of the losses was to American Heritage Plantation by a small margin and that team went on to win a state title by a dominant amount. But they also lost, convincingly, to West Orange during the regular season. And they lost on the final play of the game to a good, but not state caliber Edgewater in the final regular season game. In short, none but the most rabid Apopka faithful would have thought they were going to win a state championship. Even though a lot of talent was on the roster, the team was not playing like a championship team.
Lakeland most certainly has not sunk to the nadir Apopka sunk to in 2014. Well, guess what? The playoffs came and the team woke up. They drilled West Orange 42-0 in the second round then went on the road and beat a very loaded First Coast team 64-48 at their place.
Lakeland was in the game almost to the end of both their losses. The talent is clearly there. If the kids and the staff really want to win it all, they can if they have right attitude. There is only so much advantage home field confers. And most officiating crews, even if they have a bias towards the home team, don't systematically "steal" the game for the home team. I hope that Lakeland's staff is not sowing the seeds of doubt in the players the way you are on this message board. For if they are, there season will most certainly end sometime during the playoffs. From what I have seen of them so far, it does not have to be their destiny to exit early.
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3 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:
The difference is I'm working under the assumption that Buchholz will have the home field advantage for all of those potential games, whereas you don't seem to consider that. While it's true that we don't yet know for sure how the final seedings will look, it seems a very good bet Buchholz will be ranked ahead of all of the other teams in 4S. All you mention have or figure to have a loss, with the possible excpetion of University City which you didn't mention.
I like Lakeland or Venice vs. Buchholz in either a home game or a neutral site game. But, on the road in Gainesville, where those teams will still be perceived as favorites and thus will get screwed by the officials, Buchholz will win IMO.
A true championship will find a way to win regardless of where the game is played. In 2014, Apopka, going into the playoffs with a 6-4 record, played its first three games on the road, including a trip to Jacksonville. It did not matter, they won them all. If Lakeland is destined to be a champion this year they will overcome the handicap if, indeed, there is one at the end of the regular season.
It's almost as if you doubt that your team has it in them to win under adversity. If that is the message conveyed to the kids, guess what? That's right, they won't win.
- Cat_Scratch2, Jullian, Vero Indian and 1 other
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11 minutes ago, 181pl said:
there in like year three or four of football. I don’t think they’ve made it to the semi’s.
That's correct. Steinbrenner did; Sumner, not yet.
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6 minutes ago, Cat_Scratch2 said:
Just what are they putting in the hookah pipes?
Obviously something very, very strong. It's legality may also be questionable!
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19 minutes ago, THAT S--T WAS FUNNY said:
With next year being a new 2 year cycle, it should be interesting to see how teams approach scheduling. There might be some average to below average teams getting a lot of looks by good to great teams like they are the hot girl at school. With the way these rankings are the good to great teams are the ugly chick that no one wants to date.
It makes a lot of sense if you wish to guarantee a playoff spot. It may or may not benefit, when it comes to making a deep playoff run. But of course, if you don't make the playoffs, a deep run is moot.
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1 hour ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
Hmmm interesting where are they located ? Is this a predominantly black school or half and half ?
The best way to describe Lake Mary that would make sense to someone in south Florida, would be like one of the following schools: Parkland Douglas, Boca Raton, Wellington, or Miami Palmetto 20 years ago.
Lake Mary is an upper middle income/affluent public school northeast of Orlando. Demographics would be probably more than 70% white with other ethnic/racial groups evenly making up the rest. With that said, they have a stable football program and generally has more talent than the schools I referenced except for modern day Palmetto. In the last five or so years, they have made the playoffs each year and have gotten to the Regional finals twice. They have also placed several kids in Power 5 programs. In the past, they have benefitted from Seminole High transfers. However, as the Seminole program has been consistently good, recently that pipeline has gone to a trickle. In fact, this year Seminole has a junior on their team (QB/RB/WR/Punter-he does everything) who transferred in from Lake Mary after his freshman year.
This year, Lake Mary probably has its best team ever, as the QB Noah Grubbs, though a sophomore, started after game 1 last year and has a lot of experience at the position. He has 12 DI offers the majority of which are power 5 and include: Penn State, Miami, Norte Dame, Duke, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and UCF. He has solid receivers to throw to, not Power 5 types, but at least 3 of them will likely play somewhere in college. They also have an experienced, solid Offensive Line.
Their weakness is on defense. Front 7 are average to average + and the secondary is about the same. But they do have a solid kicking/punting game. There is a possibility they could go all the way to the title game if they remain healthy and manage to outscore the better teams they play. This would be a first in the school's 40+ year history.
- Wavebb, KeemD321 and Perspective
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2 hours ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
I don’t know a lot about a few of these schools but I’ll go
Armwood
Venice
Rockledge
American heritage
fl high
carrolwood day
seminole
Miami northwestern
lake Mary
treasure coast
Lake Mary has the best QB I have seen at this stage of his career (sophomore) in the state of Florida in the last 25 seasons. And that includes QBs like Teddy Bridgewater and Tim Tebow.
But they also have a defense that has given up points to decent offenses. The Mandarin game could produce a basketball score.
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Cocoa vs Treasure Coast - Cocoa has the better athletes. I expect they win by 14 or more.
Mandarin vs Lake Mary - Noah Grubbs lights up the scoreboard against Mandarin
Seminole vs Apopka - After a lot of thought, I have decided to commit Hari-Kari and go with Apopka by 1. FWIW, our QB and a key defensive player return Friday night. I am hoping we find enough offense to score twice and equally importantly not give the ball away deep in our territory, so that the D can make the necessary stops. I believe @nolebull813 included this game in the competition to handicap my chances of winning it all!!
Cardinal Newman vs MNW - Newman lost their QB in the Atlantic game. I am going with the Bulls to win this.
CCC vs Carrollwood Day - Against my gut, I am taking the tried and true.
Wharton vs Armwood - An angry Armwood storms back to win.
Sar. Riverview vs Venice - Venice wins a tough, rivalry game.
Jax TC vs Rockledge - This one could go either way. I have a hunch the private school wins.
Ocala Trinity Catholic vs FL High - Florida High wins comfortably.AHP vs Cardinal Gibbons - AHP dominates this one
Picks are bold underscored.
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@nolebull813, I am comping at the bit and rearing to go, or has the competition come to a close. It's almost Thursday as I type this.
- Vero Indian and Ray Icaza
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These early rankings are a sick joke. A somewhat intelligent person, with no knowledge off Florida High School Football, if given each team's results, would most likely come up with rankings that made more sense than this.
When you lack the SKE (skills, knowledge and experience) the best method is the most simple method. Six teams minimum to a district and the top two make the playoffs. Yes, it would yield inequities, but at least the process would be transparent and each team would know from the beginning of the season what they needed to accomplish to be playing past the first week in November.
With the current system, it's not even clear how one should schedule in order to have a decent shot at making the playoffs if you are not the winner of your district.
It seems to me that the FHSAA and the politicians in Tallahassee are on a mission to destroy the high school game in the state of Florida.
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58 minutes ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
If they had any weakness it would be the knack of starting slow sometimes. That can bite you in the you know what against equal to greater competition.
To my way of thinking, what Columbus is missing is a really good running game. At QB and receiver they are fine. The defense seems solid. But while they have two decent backs, I don't see anything special that a good front 7 could not shut down.
If Columbus fails to win 4M, that will be the reason.
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5 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:
Did this small change take effect since last year and will they take it the next step next year? That is, NO automatic berth for a district champ as what is the point to win the district you didn't create (a weak one in our case) that has to travel to face another district champ. Seems like the next LOGICAL STEP would be to choose the best 8 teams determined by "OZ" to be awarded a playoff berth. Needless to say, I am suspicious.
Rightfully so, I should add. It would be horrible if a district champ was not given an automatic berth. Might as well not have districts in that case.
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1 hour ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
I know little to much about TC or that area but when they beat a very good Seminole team and then out over 60+ on Jesuit @ Jesuit & they were undefeated with a tough schedule up until the beating at sta had me high on them I can’t lie. But I trust your expertise on this one.
Like Apopka has done historically, TC runs a single wing. The single wing is very tough to defend if you have not seen it, or if you have average athletes. But for elite teams, unless you add wrinkles to the basic single wing, it is not very effective. This is what happened to TC against STA. If they had played, say Norland, it would have given the Vikings problems for a half before they figured out what to do and would likely have kept the game close even though Norland has more talent. But against a team like ST Thomas it does not work.
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St. Thomas is too high. Central and American Heritage would beat them. Treasure Coast was overrated, so the blowout by St Thomas is not what you think. Seminole dominated TC statistically but just failed to finish its drives including a 2nd and goal from the 1.
I still feel that Homestead is better than Palmetto, but I will give you a pass on that one.
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4 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:
They have the manpower to win 4S. But, I'm not sure how they'll respond to adversity when it shows up again. I thought they did well vs. Norland in that regard, and to a lesser degree vs. SJP.
Playoff seedings will of course be key. IMO, no one is going to go to Citizens Field and beat Buchholz. But, Buchholz playing at Venice or Bryant stadium is a different story. And the above is true for Venice, Lakeland and maybe TC as well. Whoever hosts those playoff games is going to win IMO.
I agree that seeding is going to be very important in determining which two teams get to Tally.
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3 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:
There are some indications I've picked up on that lead me to think Lakeland is now overrated. Not so much the margin over a weak WInter Haven team (L was without its QB and top three RBs), but some attitude questions. Granted, there are a bunch of teams outside of the top tier which are hard to make distinctions for at this point. But, I'm not optimistic about this Lakeland team in 4S. I think Venice, TC and Buchholz are all major threats. And I'm not sure about how much fight and "dog" this year's Lakeland team has. It's possible the two losses turned some front-runners off. IDK
Lakeland was very workmanlike against a depleted Osceola when I saw them live. As an outsider, I did not see anything that gave me great cause for concern. They looked like a team that should at the very least get to the final four.
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8 minutes ago, THIS_IS_DILLARD said:
Dam @nolebull813 after that signature win by Dillard last night I thought most def we would be in the TOP 25 at around the 20-25 range.
especially since coconut creek is up there. Creek beat a overhyped western team that is equivalent to Miramar.
Like western Miramar has been ranked in every poll all year. Around the 12-15 range in the top 15 south Florida. But aye I still respect your list GO DILLARD!In my opinion, he should have put Dillard on the list of teams on the bubble, bunched with Monarch, Atlantic, Homestead, etc. That way if Dillard continues to win, and teams in the top 25 fumble, you would be in a good position to reenter the top 25. As he has Gibbons in the bubble list, it would be difficult for him to put Dillard in the top 25.
If Dillard performs well against Chaminade and St. Thomas, I think it would be very difficult to exclude them even if they lost both games in fairly tight matches.
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38 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:
Updated to reflect @nolebull813 incompetence
@nolebull813, naw, you are not incompetent. Yours is a thankless job derived from your love of the game. I appreciate your efforts. But my goal is to win this. If not for my homerism, I would have had 7, but my love for my Darters clouded my judgement.
Please don't make Seminole vs Apopka be one of your games for week 6. It doesn't make sense to, as you will be giving the rest of the field a freebie.
- nolebull813 and KeemD321
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Hey @nolebull813. I believe I got 6 right and not 5.
St. Thomas Aquinas, Chaminade, Cardinal Newman, Niceville, Seminole and St. Augustine.Did one of the above not win? I know sometimes the initial results posted on MaxPreps are incorrect, so if I am incorrect, please let me know which of the above lost.
If I am correct, I need to be moved up to the 40 club.
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Great win by Dillard. You may have turned the corner. Congrats!
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Good for Dillard! I picked against you but I am glad you have the lead.
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6 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:
When I seen the score against Wharton I instantly thought they will need some top 25 consideration.
Sumner killed Wharton way worse than Jesuit did and Jesuit just chopped down Armwood if we are daisy chaining. Lol.
Spoke with a friend who attended the game. He said it was real competitive for over three quarters. Then Wharton melted towards the end of the game. Very good win nonetheless.
- nolebull813 and Jullian
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23 minutes ago, Jullian said:
Rays the best team in the greater Tampa area?
Quite likely the best in Tampa in 4M. Are they a contender? Very hard to say. Most Hillsborough teams don't get to play many teams out of the area per policy.
I guess, if they don't stumble before, we will have to wait for the playoffs to have an answer. They have certainly put up some impressive offensive statistics, though. Their games against Riverview and Durant may provide some competition. If they blow out those two, it's safe to say they are decent if not very good.
FINAL COCONUT CREEK 27 CHAMINADE 35!!
in The Huddle
Posted
Either Chaminade overlooked them, or Coconut Creek made a statement.