DarterBlue2
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Posts posted by DarterBlue2
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1 hour ago, FBGUY1989 said:
I like your picks but Raines is sitting undefeated. Should Northwestern be concerned and I think Booker T. Washington might pull it out.
Raines is undefeated. But I don't think they have played the quality competition that MNW has. So, I think the Bulls will win state and probably comfortably.
Yes, BTW could pull out the win. But winning in small, rural counties where the whole community turns out to the game is difficult; and BTW does not usually travel well. Plus, it's likely a 9 to 10 hour road trip by bus, so they will need to be there a day early and I am not sure if there will even be a good practice facility nearby for the kids to get properly warmed up and loose. Gadsden County has won most of their games in blowout fashion and in their KOC, they played Venice very tough. So, its obvious they have a very good team for a small school. The game will be tight and if it were held in Dade or a neutral site, I would like BTW's chances. I just feel that on the road, in the conditions they are going to face, if the two teams are as equally matched as I think, they will be at a big disadvantage.
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1 hour ago, nolebull813 said:
Madison County - In a close game.
CCC - Could go either way. CN is a good team
Gadsden - It will be a long trip for Booker T. I'll take Gadsden because of homefield advantage.
MNW - Only the FHSAA can stop the Bulls
Jones - Tough game to pick. I'll go with homefield advantage. There's a reason Jones is undefeated.
STA - Could go either way based on how STA has been playing. I'll take strength of schedule
West Boca - WB is the best team in PBC. Southridge's quest for a title ends in Boca Raton
Osceola - In a nail biter. Buchholz is a very good team, but I think physicality and line play gets the Kowboys the win.
Venice - Venice's first real test in the playoffs. I believe Columbus hangs tough but comes up just short.
Lake Mary - Lake Mary gets revenge. It won't be close.
The only easy picks this week are the Lake Mary Dr. Phillips game and the Miami Northwestern game vs Eau Galle. All of the others were pretty tough to very tough to pick. Now DP may just win and I'll have egg in my face. But I doubt it. Lake Mary is on a mission and should do to them what Apopka did to Edgewater back in the 2001 regional finals after the Eagles had given the Darters its only regular season loss.
- Jullian and Pipe Dreams
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42 minutes ago, Rattlin Steele said:
Have a buddy who is related to someone in the school who is definitely "In the Know". He inquired on my behalf and told me this:
() = my comments
The rankings have been recomputed after every round and it seems the schools had this info (but it wasn't updated on the FSHAA site). Going into the regional finals last night, 5A had Manatee clearly at the top followed by Lakeland, Lincoln, and Niceville tightly bunched in that order. So close that Niceville thought they might overtake Lakeland if they won against Lincoln. The rankings were recomputed after last night's results. Niceville finished 3rd behind Lakeland by .103 pts.
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These new rankings are now shown on the FSHAA website.
So contrary to the FHSAA rules that were cited in an earlier post, they did not use the end-of-regular-season rankings.
From our Nicevillian POV it didn't matter much really. We thought we would travel to Manatee, instead we're visiting Lakeland, although personally I would have preferred Manatee as we all know that playing Lakeland at home is brutal. Unsure of Manatee's fan fervor.
Last night at the conclusion of the game I knew something wasn't adding up with regard to the cited rule, because the stadium announcer and radio crew said we won't know what's happening next for the team till later despite the fact that all the regional final results were known by then. So now I understand why -- the FHSAA was going to do another round of rankings later in the night and those ranking would determine the semifinal host sites.
It worked out well for those clamoring for an Lakeland/STA championship game since that possibility now exists (and is likely).
When I get some time I'm going to try and re-compare for the other classes out of curiosity.
I can tell with certainty that 7A and 6A are matched up exactly as they would have based on the rankings at the end of the regular season. I believe, but am not certain, since I did not follow it as closely, that the same applies to 4A.
So, they are not even following their current rules. Oh well ... we are where we are and that's all I will say.
On another note, Manatee is about as tough a place to travel to as is Niceville, but not quite as tough as Lakeland. Good luck you have a long trip.
- Rattlin Steele and Jullian
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1 minute ago, Ray Icaza said:
Remember, the Lake Mary game I pointed out Taevion injured his shoulder on his very first carry. As people can clearly see last night, that man is a difference maker and no one will convince me that the Lake Mary defense is better than the Armwood one. Like last night where the halftime score was 0-0, at Lake Mary in was 3-0 as we had throttled them with zero running attack. No guarantee we would have won that game, I am saying just like last night it was a 50/50 game which the final score did not reflect.
I saw the game on film; I know Taevion got injured early and I have no idea how the game would have went if he was healthy all game.
I am sure Lake Mary is not as athletic as Armwood is on defense, but their defense did fine last night with two interceptions one of which was a one handed catch for a pick six and the other a long run after the pick that took the ball inside the five.
Aside from those two timely interceptions, Lake Mary won convincingly because Grubbs had his best game of this season last night. His passes were crisp and accurate and Seminole's secondary was outgunned. I expected they would win, but not as easily as they did.
If they play like they did last night, they will almost certainly avenge their loss to DP and likely with a large point spread win.
I believe that if, as I expect, the 7A final is Venice vs Lake Mary, it may be an offensive game for the ages, probably like the Apopka vs Cypress Bay final in 2012.
Regarding your opponent next week, they have a good QB and a balanced offense. I don't believe they will have a lot of success running against Osceola, so, if they are to have a chance, their QB will have to have one of his best games of the season. Their defense is solid but gives up points to good teams, so Taevion will have his long runs and touchdowns. How many, I don't know. I watched them beat a good Cardinal Newman team a few weeks ago, and was overall impressed with their game play.
I believe Osceola will beat them, but they are not a team to be trifled with.
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5 hours ago, Longtime Observer said:
Apparently, the "computer" updated ratings again and it's STA @ Manatee and Niceville at Lakeland. Of course, given the secret formula, we can't be sure the FHSAA simply hopes for an STA-Lakeland final.
That is exactly what they hoped for. This whole system sucks! No transparency at all. Note that if they were revising the rankings based on the playoffs, Osceola would most certainly be hosting a semifinal based on the their win last night. Instead, they are traveling to Gainesville to play Buchholz.
It is, what it is.
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3 hours ago, Zachk1003 said:
So from what I saw venice will play Columbus don't know if it will hold up or not but if it does then I should HEAVILY consider heading down to venice to see it never been to venice before and haven't seen Columbus ever would like this to change if it is venice vs Columbus
It will be Venice vs Columbus and Venice will, indeed, host. Great place to watch a game. Decent sized visiting section and large home side. I am sure there will be a packed house. My advice is get there early. Venice will be the favorite (rightly), but their D can be scored on and Columbus, though not as good as last year, is gritty. So, victory by Venice is not assured. Could end up being a great game.
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5 hours ago, Ray Icaza said:
WHO DAT??? .....TAEVION SWINT!!! Just got home, but if you were a neutral spectator in the stands tonight scouting these two excellent backs I think it was pretty clear who was the dominant one. Our rallying cry this time of year is "ONE MORE MONDAY" and we achieved that goal. Finally, a big shout out to OHS Vargas as a finalist in the pick ems, as not only our kids believed but he did too. The rest of this great group of pickers all struck out. Those calling this an "UPSET" must of not seen the same game I did tonight. Yes, Armwood is terrific and has playmakers all over the field throwing the ball, running the ball and making catches. Unfortunately, lots of people forget that one of the winning formulas lies in the trenches and we pounded these folks into submission; it was a slow physical beatdown as this didn't come out of thin air but what I heard many Armwood fans saying after the game. So please, don't act like it was a fluke because all the pundits have not ranked us properly. GO KOWBOYS!!
Great win, Ray. I have to admit, I thought you would keep it close, but I doubted the Kowboys would win. Figured you would lose by a touchdown or less in a low scoring game. Well the Kowboys proved me wrong and I am very glad they did! It should be noted that the two teams you lost to (Lake Mary and Jones) are state semifinalists like your Kowboys. And Lake Mary made it in running clock fashion literally destroying Seminole.
There are some solid teams left in 6A, but you have overcome the favorite. Go win state!!
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33 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:
It will be just as daunting for them as it is for us, so I view it as a 50/50 game regardless of these rankings so I like our chances. Outside of Tampa Bay Tech and Tampa Plant, their schedule hasn't been that challenging as reflected in their SOS on both the FHSAA calculation as well as the MaxPrep one. We'll see.
It helps that their offensive strengths play into Osceola's defensive strengths. If I were not coming back from Atlanta Friday, I would make the trip down I-4. But I probably won't get home till around 5pm and I will be tired. So, I will probably make it to either Lake Mary or Dr. Phillips instead.
- Ray Icaza and Nulli Secundus
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17 minutes ago, Ray Icaza said:
Sounds like you are describing what Orlando Jones did to Edgewater in the first half in their game also. It was 21-0 at halftime which a mobile QB like DeReon Coleman can easily do to most teams as he has a couple of 4-Star WR's to throw to. Edgewater's defense was suspect as they gave up nearly 300 yards to Jones on the ground as well. You attended the game between Jones and OHS that went to OT where you watched despite sacking him 4 times, this kid continued to make plays with his arm and his legs despite not getting hardly anything on the ground against our front. On any level, that combination in a QB is extremely difficult to defend and if TBT has a guy like that Lakeland will have to score points to win as they were fortunate to escape at Lake Mary.
Bingo! That's exactly what I was saying. But in addition, they had no idea what they were going to face. At least against Coleman, they knew what to expect. They just had a hard time stopping him.
Coleman has some of the best pocket presence I have ever seen in a high school QB. Grubbs has a stronger arm and has the kind of size that D1 teams look for. But at the high school level, at least, Coleman is one of the best I have ever seen as he's extremely calm under pressure. And while he's not a classic dual threat, he has enough speed to give opposing teams a lot of trouble with his legs. Time will tell whether he will continue to perform at the next level. But I am glad he will be getting the opportunity to do so.
Good luck to your Kowboys at Armwood. It is a daunting task, but I know that Osceola's players will give it their all, and if you get by that hurdle, 6A is wide open and you will have as good a shot as any at going all the way.
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18 minutes ago, Longtime Observer said:
Interesting. I saw they had two guys playing QB, but didn't know the story. Jones looked plenty mobile to me, and I think Moore is a WR. So, it seems like opponents would prefer to have Moore in at QB. But, I may regret saying that
Moore gave Edgewater hell the first half. They probably had not seen him on film playing QB and he gashed them for first down after first down on the ground and also made some good passes. In the second half they contained Tech some, but by then it was too late to stage a meaningful comeback. All they could do was keep the final score somewhat respectable
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54 minutes ago, imjustafan2 said:
I remember "Way Back", in the late '70s early '80s 1A-4A days. They had the Rotary Bowl in the Central FL area. It was a post season game for two chosen teams that had good records, but didn't make it past the winning their district. Cocoa played Jones one year. Kind of a consolation game.
Those kinds of post season events made sense. A final game for the seniors on a deserving team. Those days are long gone.
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Don't ask, it's actually pretty amazing, but in a bad way.
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Cardinal Newman
Trinity Christian
Cardinal Mooney
Gadsden County
Eau Galle
Booker
St Augustine
Naples
Norland
Jones
Niceville
Lakeland
Buchholz
Armwood - Osceola is going to give the Hawks all they can handle. This is not a comfortable pick but is based on homefield advantage. I hope I am wrong and the Kowboys pull it off.
Southridge - If it had been West Boca, I would have picked them. But the Ridge lives another week.
Dr Phillips - DP gets to the semis in a very had fought game. Homefield is the deciding factor.
Lake Mary - despite losing its RB late against Spruce Creek, even if IT is not healthy, the Rams beat this uninspired version of Seminole High.
Western
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1 minute ago, Perspective said:
Nolebull, I PM'd you, but don't worry about it. Just know that I tried.
Sorry you are out that way.
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1 hour ago, Trelle said:
Huge win and confidence boost, however I think this will be the end of the line for Vero at DP. At the start of the season I said I thought they’d be good, but not world beaters and I think they had a very good season. The next couple years however I really do think Vero could make a couple of runs with some of the key positions this year having freshman starters including our starting QB. Give them some time and I think they could be dangerous.
Hopefully I’m wrong, but right now I could see DP winning by 14+.
Given it's at Dp., I would make them the favorite. But they are beatable, though pretty good. I give VB a 40% chance of winning the game. Regardless, I think the final margin will be 10 or less
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14 minutes ago, Jullian said:
That game got a lot of people’s attention. Gadsen proved through out the season, it was no fluke.
That they did
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25 minutes ago, THAT S--T WAS FUNNY said:
No one mentioning how @SFLFBFan got the documents of the accused. It looked like it came straight from the guidance department. Now I know why he deleted it. Kinda crazy
Indeed!
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2 hours ago, Dr. D said:
For those interested in data, here are some numbers to consider:
460 teams played under the FHSAA umbrella this year. 240 (52%) teams qualified for the state playoff series. That seems like a lot. My view is that if you didn't make the playoffs, look in the mirror first before blaming others.
Here is the breakdown of quarterfinal games across classes 1A-7A:
- #1 seed vs. #8: 28-0
- #2 seed vs. #7: 25-3
- #3 seed vs. #6: 21-7
- #4 seed vs. #5: 18-10
- higher seed vs. lower seed: overall 92-20; about what you expect. This suggests that the seeding system is fairly accurate, especially not giving a top 4 seed and home game automatically to district winners. You don't deserve an automatic top 4 seed by winning a piddly 3- or 4-team district. It would be a different story if districts had 7 or more teams.
Comparing this year's quarterfinals under the enrollment-based classes vs. last year's Metro-Suburban classes, the median (half higher/half lower) margin of victory in both years across all quarterfinal games was 26 points. In 2023, 30% of the quarterfinal games had a running clock, whereas the total was 34% in 2024. It will be interesting to see if the remaining games are more or less competitive than last year.
On to the region semifinals...
Clearly there are too many teams in the playoffs. This could easily be remedied by reducing the number of classes by at least one, but preferably two. Having districts no less than 5 teams but no more then 7 would lead to better playoff teams without making it too difficult for teams to schedule out of district, out of area, or even out of state teams with their remaining 4 to 6 games. I am agnostic as to whether we have champs and runners up under this scenario or whether it's champs and the next highest four teams in each region provided the system to determine ranking is rational and transparent.
- MarkECannon and Jullian
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Just now, Jullian said:
Florida High@Gadsen/ Berkeley Prep@Cocoa/ Oakleaf@Nease?
Can Berkeley Prep play its best game(underachieved all year) & beat the Tigers?
Oakleaf has been tough. I keep waiting for Nease to fold???
Havent seen Gadsen but their scores have been solid. Noles have had some good wins….
In my opinion the answers are: no, no and maybe, but very unlikely.
A potential upset under the radar is Jupiter upsetting Dr. Phillips. Not likely, but I could see that happening.
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Do you understand how much you come over as a total a^^ hole?
Perhaps you get some kind of grotesque high off of being like that. I cannot help you as I am not a medic.
Needless to say, this is my first and last response to anything you may post for the remaining time I post on this message board.
- Jullian and Perspective
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8 minutes ago, THAT S--T WAS FUNNY said:
When it comes to officials...dude is shady. I would never trust him if he was working a game I was at.
ditto!!
Venice vs Columbus
in The Huddle
Posted
Columbus will lose if it comes down to raw talent. But if they stay close, I would not at all be surprised if they pull the upset. Certainly, it would behoove Venice to take the Explorers very seriously. I believe the final score will be something like 24-17 Venice. But I would not be surprised if Columbus prevails by less than a TD.