Bay Area in Semis

[181pl]

4M- Plant @ Columbus- Plant first time back in the semis in several years. Columbus defending state champs. Plant's best offensive player re-injured his nagging ankle injury Friday night but they still found a way. 11 in a row. Only two losses were close to BP who is still alive (see below) and Tech, who just lost a close one to Jones. Plant will need to find at least 24 points next week to have a shot and the defense has to continue to swarm. Columbus the favorite.Saw Columbus beat Jesuit pretty handily this year but the Tigers got better as the year went. Columbus will have a big size advantage on the lines. Pulling for Plant but Columbus likely wins by at least 10 at home. If the game was at Plant I'd think they'd find some Dad's Stadium magic, but it will tough on the road.

3M- Gaither @ St. Thomas Aquinas- HUGE win for Cowboys in OT over Jesuit. They go 5-5 in the regular season and then step up playing out of their minds. Of course when you play 14 time state champion Aquinas, you will likely be outclassed. But much respect to the Cowboys for pulling a stunner over Jesuit. Probably Aquinas by 21.

2M- Berkeley @ Am. Heritage Plantation- Again, going on road to play National Power. Berekely has the horses to hang with AHP, but AHP is the favorite. Winner likely gets Norland, who only beat 10-time state champ Central twice this year. Go Bucs! Very close game but Tampa team going on road to play national power probably means a close AHP win. 

1M- Jax TCA v. CCC- Two perenniel winners. TCA has hardware and CCC wants a title. Game at CCC helps. I think they can win a pretty close game. Winner gets the unenviable task of likely taking on CM. 

[DarterBlue2]

I think your assessment is fair. CCC has the best chance of making the finals as I think it's better than 50/50; unfortunately, if they do, they face what is likely the best team in the state.

Ironically, the team with the best chance of winning a state title if it got there is Gaither, who, if by some magic, could upset St. Thomas in the  semis, would at least have a 45/55 shot at beating either Homestead or Jones the following week. 

If Plant beats Columbus, which is plausible, though it will be difficult, they would still be an underdog against either Mandarin or Monarch. But at least they would not be an overwhelming underdog. I believe their odds, should they beat Columbus, would likely be about 40% - 45%. 

Unfortunately for Berkeley, they will face back to back giants on the way to a state title. Beating one seems possible if unlikely, beating both, would be a once in a lifetime achievement and would be a little too much to realistically expect. 

[181pl]

I don’t think plant would be much of an underdog against either monarch or Mandarin. Although they would both certainly be quality opponents, clearly the biggest stumbling block for plant is Columbus. I was envisioning this game taking place in Tallahassee, not in Miami. As such, it’s probably unlikely they get through this roadblock. Gaither will likely get blown out. Berkeley has a decent shot. Really not sure if Norland or AHP is the favorite in the class, but they have a puncher’s chance. 

[VeniceIndianFan]

2 hours ago, 181pl said:

4M- Plant @ Columbus- Plant first time back in the semis in several years. Columbus defending state champs. Plant's best offensive player re-injured his nagging ankle injury Friday night but they still found a way. 11 in a row. Only two losses were close to BP who is still alive (see below) and Tech, who just lost a close one to Jones. Plant will need to find at least 24 points next week to have a shot and the defense has to continue to swarm. Columbus the favorite.Saw Columbus beat Jesuit pretty handily this year but the Tigers got better as the year went. Columbus will have a big size advantage on the lines. Pulling for Plant but Columbus likely wins by at least 10 at home. If the game was at Plant I'd think they'd find some Dad's Stadium magic, but it will tough on the road.

3M- Gaither @ St. Thomas Aquinas- HUGE win for Cowboys in OT over Jesuit. They go 5-5 in the regular season and then step up playing out of their minds. Of course when you play 14 time state champion Aquinas, you will likely be outclassed. But much respect to the Cowboys for pulling a stunner over Jesuit. Probably Aquinas by 21.

2M- Berkeley @ Am. Heritage Plantation- Again, going on road to play National Power. Berekely has the horses to hang with AHP, but AHP is the favorite. Winner likely gets Norland, who only beat 10-time state champ Central twice this year. Go Bucs! Very close game but Tampa team going on road to play national power probably means a close AHP win. 

1M- Jax TCA v. CCC- Two perenniel winners. TCA has hardware and CCC wants a title. Game at CCC helps. I think they can win a pretty close game. Winner gets the unenviable task of likely taking on CM. 

Congrats 181! It's great to see Plant back in the mix! Get the upset next week!

[DarterBlue2]

1 hour ago, 181pl said:

I don’t think plant would be much of an underdog against either monarch or Mandarin. Although they would both certainly be quality opponents, clearly the biggest stumbling block for plant is Columbus. I was envisioning this game taking place in Tallahassee, not in Miami. As such, it’s probably unlikely they get through this roadblock. Gaither will likely get blown out. Berkeley has a decent shot. Really not sure if Norland or AHP is the favorite in the class, but they have a puncher’s chance. 

My assessment of their chance against Mandarin, for what it's worth, is based on the season Apopka had. Apopka beat all the teams in Dp's district except Windemere, the weakest team which we did not play. We lost convincingly to Seminole twice and to Lake Mary once. Mandarin cleared them both in the playoffs playing on the road. Dp put up a solid performance against Plant. This leads me to believe that Plant is probably slightly better than Dp, but not by a lot. If I am correct, then I see Mandarin being about 10 points better than Plant. Now 10 points is certainly not insurmountable, but it's a meaningful edge. 

Anyway, I would rather Plant win it all than either Columbus or Mandarin, so my support is behind your program.

[nolebull813]

Hillsborough providing cannon fodder to the South Florida schools. Plant and  Gaither are not state semi final teams in any other bracket other than what the FHSAA forces everyone to endure.

Running clocks should not be happening in a large class state semi final. So anti-climatic 

[181pl]

17 minutes ago, nolebull813 said:

Hillsborough providing cannon fodder to the South Florida schools. Plant and  Gaither are not state semi final teams in any other bracket other than what the FHSAA forces everyone to endure.

Running clocks should not be happening in a large class state semi final. So anti-climatic 

STA is going to running clock any team at this point. you can put any public  team in there you’d like other than maybe Norland and Cocoa and they will get running clocked by STA.

 

again, I completely disagree with most of your stuff lately. You’re not convincing me that any class is super strong. You might have a better team at the top, like St. Thomas, or maybe Norland, but your logic is lacking on this.  

 

it’s easy to climb on to super recruited school from South Florida. You seem to be good at it.

[nolebull813]

Just now, 181pl said:

STA is going to running clock any team at this point. you can put any public  team in there you’d like other than maybe Norland and Cocoa and they will get running clocked by STA.

 

again, I completely disagree with most of your stuff lately. You’re not convincing me that any class is super strong. You might have a better team at the top, like St. Thomas, or maybe Norland, but your logic is lacking on this.  

 

it’s easy to climb on to super recruited school from South Florida. You seem to be good at it.

I’m not climbing onto anything. I’m saying these teams like Plant and Gaither are not elite and what you would expect from a large class semi final team from a power state. 
 

They are only where they are because the watered down playoff system. Remember just liking a team doesn’t make them better.