Division 1 College Football Woes

[LAZ]

Let’s face it, the consensus among college football fans is that we want an expansion of the playoff system. Some would even like to see something similar to basketball where all 351 Division 1 programs have a shot at winning a championship. After all it’s only fair, right?

I’ve done some research on this by breaking down Division 1 football going back ten seasons (2008-2017) and from a fan’s perspective, I’ve concluded we should be careful what we wish for. If we look at NCAA Division 1 football, it is structured as follows:

Division 1 (254 teams)

FBS 130 teams (4 team playoff) & FCS 124 teams (24 team playoff)

Most of us know of the great disparity between the FBS and FCS and can agree the talent and depth comparison between the two groups is overwhelmingly in favor of the FBS. Over the past ten seasons the FBS and FCS faced each other 1008 times, with the FBS winning 926 for astounding 0.919 winning percentage. From this data we can conclude the FCS should not be included in an overall Div. 1 playoff format. Most would agree they need to remain separate. This enables us to draw the following conclusion:

The problem fans have lies with the apparent bias within the FBS.

FBS (130 teams)

Power 5 Members 65 teams (4 team playoff)

Non-Power 5 Members 65 teams (left out in the cold)

 In attempt to validate the bias I broke down the above 1008 FBS vs FCS contests into groups & ran the numbers which led me to believe the bias may indeed exist. Both groups clearly dominated the FCS.

Power 5 vs. FCS  528-25  (0.949)

Non-Power 5 vs. FCS  401-54 (0.881)

The biggest test was next. Head to head. Power 5 vs. Non Power 5. This will tell the tale and man did it ever. Somewhat surprisingly, the disparity is vast. I was in “Shock & Awe.”

Over the past 10 years (1344 games) the Power 5 is 1086-258 (0.808) against non-Power 5 teams. The dominance is so overwhelming that 95% (62 schools) have less than .500 records vs.The Power 5. In fact 29 of the 65 schools have won less than two games against the Power 5 with 14 teams going winless. Only Boise St, Houston & Cincinnati own winning records. Conversely, 96% (63 Power 5 schools) have winning records vs. the Non-Power 5.

Here are the top 10 in terms of w-l records of non-power 5 vs. Power 5 schools from 2008-2017:

Boise St	15	-	9	0.625
Houston	13	-	8	0.619
Cinn	27	-	20	0.574
Conn	20	-	29	0.408
BYU	19	-	30	0.388
Navy	13	-	21	0.382
So Fla	18	-	32	0.360
No Illinois	7	-	14	0.333
UCF	8	-	17	0.320
Toledo	5	-	12	0.294

 

After studying this I am now convinced that the current playoff system is better than I originally thought. Though we may want to consider a slight expansion, it has become very clear that we have three distinct entities within Division 1. When it comes to The Power 5, The Non-Power 5 and the FCS, NCAA Division 1 football has what boxing has…. A Heavyweight Division, a Cruiserweight division and a Light Heavyweight division. And the Cruiserweights need their own playoff system.

I have team by team data that supports the above for anyone who has questions.

[DisabledAccount]

26 minutes ago, LAZ said:

Let’s face it, the consensus among college football fans is that we want an expansion of the playoff system. Some would even like to see something similar to basketball where all 351 Division 1 programs have a shot at winning a championship. After all it’s only fair, right?

I’ve done some research on this by breaking down Division 1 football going back ten seasons (2008-2017) and from a fan’s perspective, I’ve concluded we should be careful what we wish for. If we look at NCAA Division 1 football, it is structured as follows:

Division 1 (254 teams)

FBS 130 teams (4 team playoff) & FCS 124 teams (24 team playoff)

Most of us know of the great disparity between the FBS and FCS and can agree the talent and depth comparison between the two groups is overwhelmingly in favor of the FBS. Over the past ten seasons the FBS and FCS faced each other 1008 times, with the FBS winning 926 for astounding 0.919 winning percentage. From this data we can conclude the FCS should not be included in an overall Div. 1 playoff format. Most would agree they need to remain separate. This enables us to draw the following conclusion:

The problem fans have lies with the apparent bias within the FBS.

FBS (130 teams)

Power 5 Members 65 teams (4 team playoff)

Non-Power 5 Members 65 teams (left out in the cold)

 In attempt to validate the bias I broke down the above 1008 FBS vs FCS contests into groups & ran the numbers which led me to believe the bias may indeed exist. Both groups clearly dominated the FCS.

Power 5 vs. FCS  528-25  (0.949)

Non-Power 5 vs. FCS  401-54 (0.881)

The biggest test was next. Head to head. Power 5 vs. Non Power 5. This will tell the tale and man did it ever. Somewhat surprisingly, the disparity is vast. I was in “Shock & Awe.”

Over the past 10 years (1344 games) the Power 5 is 1086-258 (0.808) against non-Power 5 teams. The dominance is so overwhelming that 95% (62 schools) have less than .500 records vs.The Power 5. In fact 29 of the 65 schools have won less than two games against the Power 5 with 14 teams going winless. Only Boise St, Houston & Cincinnati own winning records. Conversely, 96% (63 Power 5 schools) have winning records vs. the Non-Power 5.

Here are the top 10 in terms of w-l records of non-power 5 vs. Power 5 schools from 2008-2017:

Boise St	15	-	9	0.625
Houston	13	-	8	0.619
Cinn	27	-	20	0.574
Conn	20	-	29	0.408
BYU	19	-	30	0.388
Navy	13	-	21	0.382
So Fla	18	-	32	0.360
No Illinois	7	-	14	0.333
UCF	8	-	17	0.320
Toledo	5	-	12	0.294

 

After studying this I am now convinced that the current playoff system is better than I originally thought. Though we may want to consider a slight expansion, it has become very clear that we have three distinct entities within Division 1. When it comes to The Power 5, The Non-Power 5 and the FCS, NCAA Division 1 football has what boxing has…. A Heavyweight Division, a Cruiserweight division and a Light Heavyweight division. And the Cruiserweights need their own playoff system.

I have team by team data that supports the above for anyone who has questions.

Honestly they should just rename the national championship the power 5 championship then have a group of 5 playoff for the remaining D1 conferences 

[DarterBlue2]

Great analysis, Laz. I don't disagree with your conclusion on its face. However, could it be possible that if non power 5 teams had a real shot at making the FBS playoffs, they would become more attractive to top flight recruits? And, if this is so, wouldn't it help reduce the disparity to some degree between the Power 5 and non Power 5?