OldSchoolLion

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/highschool/fl-sp-santaluces-forfeit-20181025-story.html
...not making the playoffs because an opponent forfeited a game(s)...that would sting

That was a shocker.  Washington was 8-2 during the regular season. 

1994 Pensacola Washington was a runner-up and beat Southridge 16-7 to be the first non-district champ to win a state title.
 
 

Of all the playoff systems that I have seen the one in place 1999-2000 was the one I liked best: 6 classes,  3 districts per region. Districts were larger. District Champs and Runner-ups made the playoffs with two wildcard teams for the 7th & 8th spot. Those were determined first by overall record. A point system was used only to break a tie and the points were the sum of opponents wins and losses.

I like playoff teams decided by results on the field not some random point system.  Like darter said too many people complained about travel and being in with good teams.  I would love to see 6 classes again and large districts but probably won’t ever happen

Historically speaking, playoff teams that do not finish the regular season as district champion and have 3 or more regular season losses have a very small chance of making a deep playoff run.  Back in 1993, the FHSAA started to allow a lot more teams to make the playoffs.  The data below shows that the vast majority of these "additional" playoff teams have not fared well.  There are some limited exceptions.  It makes one wonder if adding some of these additional playoff teams was really worth it, at least in terms of helping us determine the truly best team in each class.     
Between 2000-2017, about 1150 district runners-up/wilcard teams made the playoffs in the upper classes (5A-8A from 2011-2016 and 3A-6A from 2000-2010).  Of those teams, only 4% made it to a state semifinal or beyond and 1.5% made it to a state final.  Only 1% of those 1150 teams with 3 or more regular season losses made it to a state semifinal or beyond. 
Listed below are the teams that made a state semifinal or beyond during this time frame.  After each team name is their regular season record, the class in which they played that year, and the team that won their district that year.  I've italicized some of the outliers.  
Here are some interesting facts about these teams during this time frame:
21 of the 45 teams below finished the regular season with one loss. Only 2 teams that did not win a district title and finished the regular season with 3 or more losses made it to a state final: Apopka in 2014 and Carol City in 2016   Only 12 teams that did not win a district title and finished the regular season with 3 or more losses made it to a state semifinal Only 6 teams have won a state title without winning a district title: Godby, Apopka, Armwood, South Dade, Carol City, and Miami Central Apopka won each of its 3 state titles without winning their district those years.  Carol City won 2 state titles in years they did not finish as district champion. One team with a losing record made a state semifinal...Deerfield Beach in 2001.  They were in an especially weak region that year. Classes 5A-8A below
2017 Miami 8-1 (8A-Columbus)
2016 Navarre 9-1 (6A-Gulf Breeze), **Carol City 6-3 (6A-Northwestern), Clay 7-3 (5A-Baker County)
2015 Columbus 9-1 (8A-Coral Gables), Tate 7-2 (6A-Pine Forest), **Miami Central 5-2 (6A-Carol City)
2014 **Apopka 6-4 (8A-West Orange)
2013 **South Dade 9-1 (8A-Killian), Bartram Trail 5-5 (6A-St Augustine)
2012 **Apopka 8-2 (8A-Olympia), **Godby 9-1 (5A-Wakulla), Miami Jackson 6-4 (5A-Norland) 
2011 Fletcher 8-2 (8A-Deland), Bartram Trail 9-1(6A-St Augustine)
 
Classes 3A-6A below
2010 *Norland 9-1 (3A-Belen Jesuit)
2009 *Deland 9-1 (6A-Mainland), Miami Central 9-1 (6A-Northwestern), *Manatee 9-1 (5A-Venice), Lake Wales 8-1 (3A-Winter Haven)
2008 Boone 8-2 (6A-Dr Phillips), Miramar 8-2 (6A-Cypress Bay), *Northwestern 8-1 (6A-Central), Seabreeze 5-5 (4A-Merritt Island)
2007 Cocoa 7-3 (3A-Astronaut)
2006 *Lake Brantley 9-1 (6A-Oviedo), Boone 6-4 (6A-Dr Phillips), Bartow 7-3 (3A-Kathleen)
2005 None
2004 Ely 7-2 (6A-Deerfield Beach), Riverview 7-2 (5A-Sarasota), *Lake Gibson 9-1 (4A-Auburndale), **Armwood 8-1 (4A-Middleton)
2003 Deerfield Beach 9-1 (6A-Ely) **Carol City 9-1 (6A-Northwestern), Dunnellon 8-2 (3A-North Marion)
2002 *Wharton 9-1 (5A-Chamberlain), *Jefferson 9-1 (4A-Armwood)
2001 **Apopka 9-1 (6A-Edgewater), Deerfield Beach 4-6 (6A-Douglas), Dillard 6-4 (6A-Piper), Atlantic 8-2 (5A-Boca Raton), 
2000 Miami Jackson 6-4 (6A-Central), Tate 6-4 (5A-Rutherford), *Dwyer 9-1 (5A-PB Gardens), Armwood 8-2 (3A-Haines City)
*State runner-up
**State champion

Local TcPalm article breaking down each game of the 1981 Vero Beach season- interesting read. Some familiar faces still there as state ranked teams, some have since dropped off the radar.
https://www.tcpalm.com/story/sports/high-school/football/2018/10/25/road-no-1-vero-beachs-game-game-run-class-4-state-title/1697667002/

...some games tonight with interesting storylines
Palmetto(7-1) @ Killian (3-5) 8AD16 matchup     Big rivalry game for the "Cat Trophy."
Norland(3-5) @ Northwestern(3-5) 6AD16 matchup     A 4-loss Norland team shocked Northwestern last year...likely two of the better 3-loss teams in the state now 
Deland(7-1) @ Sandalwood(5-3) 8AD1 matchup     Sandalwood has won the last 3 meetings easily..is this Deland's year?  If Deland wins and Mandarin loses to Palm Coast, it's a 3-way tie in the district race.
Flagler Palm Coast(7-2) @ Mandardin(5-3) 8AD1 matchup.  FPC has won 4 of the past 7 meetings, including a 24-17 2OT win last season.

Junior QB named Starks. Good athlete, duel threat kid
But gwdrum is correct, GJ was beating poor teams to start the year. Osceola will pound them.
https://twitter.com/CountyPolk

But they know football down their tho all my family be talkin bout it with me and they even got basketball courts out their and I'm like dam its like I never even left the states

That's the game I had mentioned earlier this...(Thanks), This weekend is the Florida/Georgia game and cant tell you how many times over the years, I'd have  UGA friends quote the late great Larry Munson's iconic radio call "There goes Hershel, there goes Hershel"  when Hershel would break off a long run.....thought I share this as well!
https://youtu.be/Go0BazyFLzg

Here is another pretty good one from 2012. No big names on that year's Lakeland team. They were able to hold on to win 28-27 in OT, but you could see the progression of Kathleen that would really be evident in 2013 when they beat Lakeland for the first time since '92.
 

I like the rationale accompanying the rankings.  

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/winless-massachusetts-high-school-makes-state-playoffs-162230119.html

As with any poll there is some subjectivity.  Computer rankings supposedly gets rid of that, but in my opinion, the computer ranking is only as good as the programmer writing the algorithm.  They all have a bias.  I started this poll back at the start of the season to accomplish a couple of things : 1. Focus on this area of Florida because of lack of discussion; 2. See who's exceeding expectations vs who's over hyped.  
Here's what I was thinking when I ranked them:
Lakeland is #1 because the are unbeaten; have taken care of business with the teams they've played, and have the past tradition to boot.
Venice is #2 because they are the defending state champs in 7a and their only loss is to Vero, an unbeaten team.
Pinellas Park is #3 because they have been winning convincingly every week.  Lack a signature win and no past championships but look good as of right now.
Clearwater Central Catholic is #4,  because they are unbeaten and coming off a big win against Jesuit.  Could be #3 but I think in a head-to-head with Pinellas Park, I would go with the later.
Armwood is #5 because their only loss was to a really good Tampa Bay Tech team that I had at #2. That was early in the season, and since then they been on a roll.  Armwood is consistently a top team.
Plant is #6 - Only loss is to Armwood who is just above them.  Also a consistent top team.
Hardee is #7 - Unbeaten but lacks a signature win.  Traditionally has a winning season and makes the playoffs.  Has been playing really good football as of late.
Cardinal Mooney is #8 - same comments about Hardee apply here too.
Plant City is #9 - was ranked higher until they lost to Armwood.  I had them ranked higher but they lacked a signature win and now have a loss, so that's why they are 9 instead of #7.
Bloomingdale #10 - Maxpreps ranks them really high.  Most the teams they beat were easy. They got a big win over Tampa Bay Tech, who I had #2 at the time, but then lost to Plant City the next week.  This is why  they are just behind Plant City.
Tampa Bay Tech #11 - they were #2 until Bloomingdale beat them. Play Pant City this week.  
Jesuit #12 - They were much higher after beating Kissimmee Osceola but the loss to CCC dropped them and CCC moved up.
Braden River #13 - Two losses are to Jax Trinity Christian and Venice both top teams and close games.  Only quality win is Palmetto.  
Lake Wales #14 - Just won their district but has an early season loss to Treasure Coast.  Still to be seen is if they can beat an established powerhouse.
Palmetto #15 - Two losses are to Manatee and Braden River.  Palmetto can't seem to win big games but they blow everyone else out.
Clearwater Academy Int #16 - A team I knew little about but with an 8-0 record felt they deserved a spot.
Berkeley Prep #17 - Another solid program with two losses against teams I have ranked higher than them.
Tampa Catholic #18 - Just behind Berkeley Prep because of the loss to them.  Other loss wast to team I have at #4.
Chamberlain #19 - Needs a signature win.  Two losses are to teams ranked ahead of them in the poll.  One loss was close, the other wasn't.
Largo#20 - This is the last spot in the poll.  Largo got it because some of the others that I had ranked earlier now have 3 loses.
Sarasota Riverview and Manatee; both 5-3 in my opinion haven't been living up to expectations.  Good programs for sure, but Riverview lost to Newsome and Manatee lost to Riverview.  Tells me both are down from years past despite their rich tradition.  Maxpreps loves both of them. 
 

Cardinal Mooney has beaten Bishop Verot(7-2) and Berkeley Prep(6-2), has been in some tight games, so know about pressure/poise, average 35 points per game, and have a legendary coach who knows how to get a team ready for a game.  That's a lot of positives.   

Cardinal Mooney has beaten Bishop Verot(7-2) and Berkeley Prep(6-2), has been in some tight games, so know about pressure/poise, average 35 points per game, and have a legendary coach who knows how to get a team ready for a game.  That's a lot of positives.   

Billy Allen, was recuited when BB was on a speaking tour in Europe. He played service tackle football while in the US Air Force (Germany). Thanks Google......

Trent Richardson Escambia Pensacola Catholic

I think it's gonna be a shootout like the Glades game. Especially if Cocoa can't force any turnovers. I know Bartram game was really close.  So I see it going down as a battle for Cocoa.

I thought for sure someone would have something to say about the Pahokee vs Cocoa game.  Cocoa can score a lot of points but is giving up a lot of points.  Cocoa won 45-0 last year.

Class 3A, Week 10 rankings:

#1) Chaminade-Madonna: Chaminade scored a quality win over a good, but not great Doral Academy team 47-17. In the game Chaminade had multiple TD's called back and quite honestly could have won 80-7. As mentioned last week, the Lions have hit their stride at this point in the season and it's hard seeing anybody slow them down right now. I kept them ranked #1 this week due to the early season win over Muscle Shoals. The Trojans have gone on to great success and should finish their season in Alabama 8-2.  Also, I'm giving a tip of the hat to their win over Booker T who would then go on to compete for 3 quarters against Carol City. As far as week 10 is concerned, I see another 70-0 type win over hapless Flanagan before setting up a huge week 11 game over the current #1 team in Class 4A, University School.


#2) Clearwater Central Catholic: Many computer polls had  Tampa Jesuit as a top 15 team in the state (highest being Pinkos who had them at #11). Many felt that if CCC was going to pull off the upset it would need to be a high scoring, overtime type game where maybe Jesuit didn't bring their A game. Remarkably, CCC gave up only 2 field goals in the win and shut down the vaunted Jesuit rushing attack.  I'm personally impressed they did this without the services of 4 starters, including superstar Jerzhan Newton.  While I believe this is the best individual win any 3A team has scored this year, I believe Chaminades body of work up to this point is slightly better than CCC's, even with 2 losses. Now, if the Marauders win on Friday against undefeated Cardinal Mooney that could change.

#3) Sarasota Cardinal Mooney:  When it comes to Florida High School football coaches in Florida, few are more respected than Cardinal Mooney coach Paul Maechtle who has racked up 290 victories and 2 state championships in his career. He inherited a highly talented team at Mooney that was ready to make a deep run in the playoffs. RB Trayvon Hall has had a special season in 2018 continually running past defenders.  Mooney has put together a series of quality wins, but they haven't earned that signature win. That could come this week when the CCC Marauders arrive in town boasting a 22 game regular season winning streak.

#4) Benjamin School: Because the Buccaneers play in the same region as Chaminade- it's easy to overlook the quality of play coming out of Benjamin. Benjamin has won 15 of their last 18 regular season games, including being undefeated so far in 2018.  Kaiir Elam is having a phenominal season with 650 all purpose yards and 4 TD's, but it's the Buccaneer rushing attack that has really come to the attention of opposing defenses.  Benjamin has 4 running backs that have run for at least 200 yards this season, 3 of which have rushed for at least 300 yards.  The Buccaneers are playing high quality football and look to finish the season undefeated against rival and also high performing King's Academy.

#5) Tampa Berkeley Prep: There were a lot of teams considered for this #5 spot as there's a proverbial jammed highway here, but it was determined to give the spot to Berkeley Prep.  Berkeley has 2 losses, but they were early season losses to two undefeated teams that are currently in the top 75 of Maxprep and other polls. Berkeley has also scored quality wins over Tampa Catholic, Lakeland Christian and Mitchell.  This weeks comes a defensive challenge from a good 6-3 Tampa Sickles quad to finish the season. If you haven't seen Berkeley Prep QB Joshua Youngblood play, you owe yourself to check out his Hudl highlights.

ROUNDING OUT THE TOP 10

#6) Tampa Catholic: Crusaders continue to impress after a strong 15-3 win over #4 state ranked team Bishop Verot. The hype has already started for 11/2 when Tampa Catholic hosts Jesuit.
#7) Florida High School: The Seminoles fought hard, but eventually dropped the game against a high quality Wakulla team. It doesn't get easier this week with Godby on tap.
#9) American Heritge Delray- The Stallions had a great opening to their season, but have stumbled in previous weeks. Still, at 5-3 AH-D can finish the season strong  against Key West and Everglades Pre.
#10)  Baldwin: The Indians were upset last week against Santa Fe, but Florida High lost as well- thus, if the Indians can win out they stand a good chance to grabbing the #1 seed in the region if Florida High stumbles against Godby.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Clearwater Central Catholic (9-0) at Cardinal Mooney (8-0)

This game is likely a preview of a regional finals match in mid November as both teams are expected to finish #1 and #2 in the region.

THE PICK: Cardinal Mooney has had a strong season and will be a formidable foe. I have no doubt that Mooney will make things interesting for a half, but CCC is playing for a 2nd consecutive undefeated season and more importantly, home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

CCC 38, Mooney 14

King's Academy vs Benjamin

North Palm Beach meets West Palm Beach in this is a very interesting Class 3A Region 2 vs Region 3 match.  King's Academy comes in with 1 loss, Benjamin is undefeated.

THE PICK: These are two really good teams that I can see having success in the playoffs. I expect both teams to finish the season at category 1 teams, so there's lots of points on the board.   I don't think either team has played a super challenging schedule, but they've won the games they should.  I expect a close contest, but the Bucs seal it with a late fumble.

Benjamin 35, King's 28


OTHER GAMES
Baldwin over West Nasseau by 3. (West Nasseau plays Baldwin on Monday, 10/29- it will be their 2nd game in 3 days).
Berkeley Prep over Sickles by 10
Orlando First Academy over Lake Highland Prep by 28
Calvary Christian (C-Water) over IMG White by 42
Chaminade-Madonna over Flanagan by 50+
North Marion over Ocala Trinity by 21
St. Pete Catholic over Gulf by 14
Pensacola Catholic over Pensacola Pace by 7
Lakeland Christian over Avon Park by 14
University School over Melbourne Central Catholic by 42
AH-D over Key West by 21
Fort White over Newberry by 35+
Glades Central over Cardinal Newman by 20



 

Below are the year-to-date records for some of the out-of-state teams that played Florida teams earlier this season.  Most are proving to be reasonably good teams, if not very good teams.  
Dematha(MD)-lost to STA 38-0; 6-2 record; LOST 13-7 to nationally-ranked St John's 
St Joseph Regional(NJ)-lost to AH Plantation 20-17; 7-2 record (only other loss was by 4 points to ranked Bergen Catholic) WON
St John's(DC)-beat Central; 8-0 record WON
Milton(GA)-beat Cardinal Gibbons 42-17; 7-2 record WON
North Gwinnett(GA)-lost to Wekiva 28-14(NG's lowest offensive output of the year) ; 8-2 record WON
Buford(GA)-lost to Deerfield Beach 19-14(Buford's lowest offensive output of the year); 7-2 record WON
Westlake(GA)-lost to Deerfield Beach 41-16; 7-2 record (only other loss was close game with Grayson) WON
Lee County(GA)-beat Dr Phillips; 9-0 record WON 
Lowndes(GA)-beat Lincoln 51-15; 7-2 record WON 
Muscle Shoals(AL)-lost to Chaminade-Madonna 28-21; 8-2 record (only other loss by 1 point to Top 10 AL team) WON
Bob Jones(AL)-beat Mainland 39-36; 6-4 record WON 
Clay-Chalkville(AL)-beat Niceville 58-14; 9-1 record WON
Fort Dorchester(SC)-beat Viera 31-28; 8-0 record IDLE
Louisville(MS)-beat Navarre 14-6; 10-1 record WON 
Holmes County Central(MS)-lost to Niceville 35-7; 9-1 record WON
 

Below are the year-to-date records for some of the out-of-state teams that played Florida teams earlier this season.  Most are proving to be reasonably good teams, if not very good teams.  
Dematha(MD)-lost to STA 38-0; 6-2 record; LOST 13-7 to nationally-ranked St John's 
St Joseph Regional(NJ)-lost to AH Plantation 20-17; 7-2 record (only other loss was by 4 points to ranked Bergen Catholic) WON
St John's(DC)-beat Central; 8-0 record WON
Milton(GA)-beat Cardinal Gibbons 42-17; 7-2 record WON
North Gwinnett(GA)-lost to Wekiva 28-14(NG's lowest offensive output of the year) ; 8-2 record WON
Buford(GA)-lost to Deerfield Beach 19-14(Buford's lowest offensive output of the year); 7-2 record WON
Westlake(GA)-lost to Deerfield Beach 41-16; 7-2 record (only other loss was close game with Grayson) WON
Lee County(GA)-beat Dr Phillips; 9-0 record WON 
Lowndes(GA)-beat Lincoln 51-15; 7-2 record WON 
Muscle Shoals(AL)-lost to Chaminade-Madonna 28-21; 8-2 record (only other loss by 1 point to Top 10 AL team) WON
Bob Jones(AL)-beat Mainland 39-36; 6-4 record WON 
Clay-Chalkville(AL)-beat Niceville 58-14; 9-1 record WON
Fort Dorchester(SC)-beat Viera 31-28; 8-0 record IDLE
Louisville(MS)-beat Navarre 14-6; 10-1 record WON 
Holmes County Central(MS)-lost to Niceville 35-7; 9-1 record WON